Vancouver led the league in points at Christmas, Can they continue this run into the New Year?

[North Cole]

Two things on PDO :

1) People act like PDO is a thing that (like a coin flip) regresses to 100.0 over time and anything outside of that isn't sustainable, and that's not the case. If you have a great goaltender and some talented star players, both your save % and your shooting % will be above league average and you'll have a high PDO. TB has driven a 102-ish PDO for the last 5+ years, and it isn't luck. It's because they have elite players and a great goalie.

2) Like any stat, you have to look at the context to evaluate the impact.

If a team had a PDO of 105 and were sitting at 22-2-1 or something in one-goal games and constantly eking out results in games they didn't deserve to win ... yes, there will almost certainly be a big regression in the standings when that unsustainable PDO regulates.

Vancouver is 8-5-3 in one-goal games. Basically a .500 8-8 without loser points. The high PDO has not led to the team winning a disproportionate number of close games.

I tried explaining this to people when the team was 12-3-1 to start the year with a 109 PDO. The team had a +34 goal differential after 16 games but +22 of that was in 3 blowouts they won by a combined score of 24-2. So while the PDO was unsustainable ... it was essentially 'wasted' PDO as it came mostly in blowouts and didn't contribute to winning close games. The team wasn't 12-3-1 because of PDO or luck, they were 12-3-1 because the were outplaying the opposition almost every night. But people who weren't watching the games didn't understand that.

And what I said at that point was that the PDO and goal differential wasn't sustainable, but because those weren't directly leading to wins, that the team's overall record *was* sustainable based on their overall level of play. And that's exactly what's happened. After having a +34 goal differential in the first 16 games, it's +31 in the the next 27 - a drop basically in half - but the team just kept winning.

It's a bizarre thing where if the Canucks had won those three games by a combined score of 8-4 or something instead of 24-2 leading to a much lower PDO but the same record, the masses would consider that record *more* sustainable despite a *worse* overall performance, which obviously makes zero sense. And this is the problem with blindly looking at statistics out of context.

1) I find it hard to believe you talked to anyone that believes every teams PDO regress exactly to 100 and that anything outside that is unsustainable. Leaguewide PDO is locked to 100 +/- decimal reporting cutoff; but I can't see how anyone would believe that all data points making up an average will eventually regress exactly to the average. That would be a statistical improbability.

2) Most people have been looking at the context, such as various other types of stats.

There is merit to the idea that VAN 'winning' games is sustainable even with a PDO regression. A team with a 102-104 PDO is still going to win a lot of games, but historically this is a very good PDO. 106+ is deviations higher than expected which is why people question whether that type of play can be sustained. With an all-time great goaltending performance of 0.940, you'd also need 15% team shooting to maintain a 109 PDO. Thats not only like having Hasek in net for 82 games (it's not enough to have your starter play at that level, you also need the 30 games they don't play to be high high level goaltending), but also 3-4% better team shooting percentage then we have seen in the modern era. That's why even maintaining a 104 PDO is extremely difficult, 10-12% shooting with 0.930-0.940 goaltending is very difficult. Not impossible.

We have already seen it regress from the 109 you stated down to 104.30 and as such their P% has already regressed in line with that drop, but they are still top of the division and winning games. I don't think I've run across anyone believing that with PDO regression they are going to miss the playoffs or some other outlandish claims.

If you tried explaining to people that despite the 109 PDO, their record of 12-3-1 (128 point pace) was sustainable I can see why you got pushback. That puts them tied 5th all time for points in a season with the 18-19 Lightning. Ironically a lightning team that busted out in a 1st round sweep against CLB. They may very well reach 128ish points, but calling that sustainable would be a big hyperbole.

I would hesitate to try and normalize high PDO for blowout wins to reach the conclusion that PDO was wasted, unless you are also going to analyze large losses for wasted negative PDO. Ex - 4-1 loss to Vegas where the PDO was 0.954.

 

[bossram]

I was responding specifically to a poster who had been doing exactly what I described. There is a difference between saying "they should be out of the playoffs but for shooting percentage" and approaching it in a more nuanced way, and I agree that the latter has occurred in this thread. I was more agreeing with the broader sentiment that there were other factors involved, and proposing that the more interesting approach would be to try and break down the PDO statistic. The "missing link" that may have been lurking in the back of my head was that I'm not sure we have the data to do so in a completely compelling way, but that as player positioning data improves, that may change. As it stands, we have a lot of informed comparison of similar teams, but not a lot of data to work with to really break down the similarities and differences and make confident projections. I agree people have expressed similar intuitions in this thread, and I was identifying myself as a member of that crowd that was critical of the less nuanced approach.

I typically try to avoid responding or engaging with posters who can't think reasonably or understand any kind of nuance. It's a pointless exercise and they don't have anything valuable to say.

There are enough posters with interesting points to make to engage with.

I agree with you, when it comes to the "playstyles" argument, we probably don't have enough data. I think there have been plausible theories proposed, but there isn't public access to player tracking or passing data to really corroborate it.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

They are a darn fun team to watch. Kind of reminds me of Florida under Q when he came in, Toccett has got them playing well. Interesting team for sure.

 

[snu22fint]

PDO is just another team performance stat, or two combined into one. If your team has high PDO, that just means that they are playing well. It has exactly the same amount of luck involved as other stats. Teams that play well will have high PDO. Forwards will create high quality chances resulting in high shooting% and defense will limit high quality chances for the opposing team resulting in high save%. Teams that play well simply have more luck. The reason abnormally high DPO always comes down to reasonable levels are the same reason induvidual players can't keep a 1 goal per game phase throughout a full season. Then there is injuries, fatigue and lack of motivation when a playoff spot is locked in etc. the president cup winners usually have one of the highest PDOs at the end of the season. Its a garbage stat for determining future success for a team which people try to use it for. It may have other uses.

The funny thing is that the opposite is true. If the cannucks had a low PDO and a good record it would actually suggest that they had a fair bit of luck. Thats just how I see it. Maybe Im wrong idk.

Edit: Another thing. Protecting leads, which most good teams are doing half the time is extremely good for PDO. You play more concervative, limiting other teams high danger chances, and are rewarded with breakaways and 2v1 etc that is very good for shooting percentage.

The argument is not if the canucks record at the start of the season was sustainable. The problem was that some stat junkies tried to downplay canucks chanses of countinueing playing well by comparing them to Buffalo and other teams that had really good starts last season using PDO as the main argument.

 

[JAK]

The funny thing is that the opposite is true. If the cannucks had a low PDO and a good record it would actually suggest that they had a fair bit of luck. Thats just how I see it. Maybe Im wrong idk.

PDO really doesn't mean much by itself.

Senators have a better PDO than half the league, including the Rangers.
Kings, Lightning and Hurricanes are amongst the bottom 6.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

Hey here’s a tip for everyone: maybe everyone can be a little less lazy and add the words “a few” or “some” when they’re talking about “Canucks fans” or “Oilers fans”. Might calm the waters a bit.

 

[Brookbank]

So the Oilers have won 12 in a row. Does someone have their PDO for the last 20 games ? Seriously.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

So the Oilers have won 12 in a row. Does someone have their PDO for the last 20 games ? Seriously.

Last 10 the Oilers have a PDO of 1.051.

Canucks have a 1.049.

Last 25 the Oilers have a PDO of 1.025
Canucks have a 1.044

 

[mkatcherin00]

So the Oilers have won 12 in a row. Does someone have their PDO for the last 20 games ? Seriously.

Edmonton this month (Not updated for tonight) are

#15 in the NHL and 100.2

Vancouver is #2 at 105.5

Det #1 at 105.6

Edmonton just doesn't have as many snipers as Vancouver. Edmonton controls play and gets a lot of chances, but they have problems finishing this year. They are getting solid goaltending

 

[JAK]

I wonder if the Oilers should fire their head coach to get another new coach PDO bump. Since PDO matters more than wins and losses.

 

[jackjohnson]

I wonder if the Oilers should fire their head coach to get another new coach PDO bump. Since PDO matters more than wins and losses.

Oilers win streak won't last, they will hit a bump eventually. So far they have played weak teams in there 12 game win streak except maybe NYR

 

[Raistlin]

I wonder if the Oilers should fire their head coach to get another new coach PDO bump. Since PDO matters more than wins and losses.

The difference is the Oilers cannot afford to have a correction. This win against the Kraken is necessary, and they have to keep at it.

As their PDO drops gradually and Canucks keep winning, maybe they finally will shut the rest of their critics up.

 

[Breakers]

Tyler Minors is actively working against Vancouver being 1st in the league

 

[Dust]

Oilers win streak won't last, they will hit a bump eventually. So far they have played weak teams in there 12 game win streak except maybe NYR

5 of the 12 teams are sitting in playoff spots that they've beaten. Not a world beating schedule by any means, but there's quality mixed in there.

 

[Chairman Maouth]

 

[HockeyWooot]

Not an advanced stats expert, but would the number of blowout wins particularly earlier in the season have skewed some of these stats?

For blowout games when you've put 4, 5 or more on your opponent after 20 and the game is already well out of reach, imagine the other team may have resigned to defeat and any subsequent goals that go in after at a higher rate than normal averages?

Like the expression "when it rains, it pours."

In other scenario- say the opposing goalie has laid a stinker letting in 4,5 goals 20 mins in on a small number of shots, the team in front lock down and play out the game in control. Not pressing as hard on offensive chances given the healthy lead, but focusing on keeping the opponent from transition through the neural zone. Any shots the losing opponent takes are perimeter low danger chances. The end of game score, shooting and save percentages tell a story that doesn't give context on how the game unfolded.

 

[Pucklington]

Not an advanced stats expert, but would the number of blowout wins particularly earlier in the season have skewed some of these stats?

For blowout games when you've put 4, 5 or more on your opponent after 20 and the game is already well out of reach, imagine the other team may have resigned to defeat and any subsequent goals that go in after at a higher rate than normal averages?

Like the expression "when it rains, it pours."

In other scenario- say the opposing goalie has laid a stinker letting in 4,5 goals 20 mins in on a small number of shots, the team in front lock down and play out the game in control. Not pressing as hard on offensive chances given the healthy lead, but focusing on keeping the opponent from transition through the neural zone. Any shots the losing opponent takes are perimeter low danger chances. The end of game score, shooting and save percentages tell a story that doesn't give context on how the game unfolded.

That is actually a reasonable explanation...

I hate the Canucks, but I've accepted they are good. Hopefully they choke in the playoffs, but they should win the division barring major slump.

Edmonton will run out of runway and likely finish 2nd.

 

[krutovsdonut]

some of the oilers fans in this thread are excavating a salt mine 2 miles deep.

 

[Fishy McScales]

some of the oilers fans in this thread are excavating a salt mine 2 miles deep.

Meanwhile Canucks fans get the Oilers threads locked twice.

Stones, glasshouses, pots and kettles.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I don't care about PDO, just enjoying the year.

Hope the team goes all in and tries to win the cup while they have this opportunity. Add Tanev, Guentzel, Lindholm, trade the 1st and anyone who isn't essential not named Willander, or Lekkerimaki.

How exactly?

 

[John Mandalorian]

This is true. How come Oilers fans don't acknowledge their 10 game winning streak being unsustainable while the most consistent team in the league so far which is Canucks through 42 games is considered unsustainable for them? I would respect some of the Oilers fans here if they weren't this salty, always reminding Canucks fans how their teams PDO is unsustainable while never giving credit where credit is due.

 

[ScottishCanuck]

Don’t really understand why the Oilers have to be discredited. They’re getting amazing goaltending but we’ve had games go our way too and no matter what way you look at it a 12 game winning streak is impressive. Even more so considering the hole they had to dig themselves out of.

It’s also impressive that the Canucks haven’t really slowed down either and have maintained their spot at the top of the division.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Meanwhile Canucks fans get the Oilers threads locked twice.

Stones, glasshouses, pots and kettles.

this post seems to prove my point not refute it

 

[Fishy McScales]

this post seems to prove my point not refute it

Please elaborate and I'll determine how well the proverbial dots are connected.

 

[Czechboy]

I'm at the point where I think the Nuck's are a great team. I really want to play them in the playoffs too. If I were a Nuck's fan and I'd change my photo and handle to say something like PDO King's and just embrace it so 'some' of the Oil posters will just shut up about it.lol

Oiler Troll: Hey Nucks, it's all PDO and you will regress
Sincere Nuck's fan: I love the smell of PDO in the morning

Something like that. It's the new 'trigger' word around here... went from Corsi to AINEC to PDO.lol

Eg. everytime Bouch gets another point I just type shit like 'remember, this man sucks' or 'hate to see him miss a few games to go to the ECHL all star game'.

RNH gets a point... I immediately now type Powerplay Merchant (especially if it is at even strength)

Remember, they are all a product of that selfish, non shot blocking McDavid and that trade request to Toronto is all but typed up by now.

Keep burning down everyones villages Nucks... I REALLY hope my Oil play you in playoffs and I hope you are 100% healthy when we do. I say it goes to 7 and and at least 100 posters get banned during that one playoff round.