Confirmed with Link: [VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21), 2019 3rd, Marek Mazanec for J.T. Miller

[PetterssonSimp]

The thing that I think that people are missing is that the conditions on the pick dramatically decrease the odds of it being a top-15 pick. All that needs to happen for it NOT to be a top-15 pick is for the Canucks to make the playoffs in EITHER of the next two seasons. Is that a bet I would make? Probably not, but it's really not outlandish. You think there is a 0% chance the Canucks make the playoffs in the next two seasons? Of course not. So what is it then? If it's 50/50 then does the trade become acceptable?

Your last point is fair though. We would all like to see the team bargain hunt in free agency the way Gillis used to, I just take issue with people saying the trade is poor value. You can criticize the timing of the trade, in that the Canucks need to be closer to contention in order to expose themselves to this much risk (and I think people are overstating the amount of risk, see above,) but I don't buy that it's not a good trade value-wise.

I had a similar take on the Kesler trade, which I also thought was good value and shrewdly targetting an undervalued player on an excellent contract, but also was the wrong trade for them to make at the time because they should have been targetting futures who would now, five years later, be in their primes.

It's sad that we still believe the Canucks should be targetting futures though. In reality, this is a trade that *should* make a lot more sense, if the Canucks hadn't spun their wheels and mismanaged the last five years so catastrophically.

My best friend is a Canucks Shill to the levels of John Garret and above IMac. He would not in any way agree to my challenge bet of 1 round of golf if the Canucks didn’t make the playoffs next year! He legit would not agree to this because even he knows they won’t make it.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

To be fair, even when missing a few games and being pushed out of Tampa's top 6 due to depth last year, his 47 points still tied him for 108th in forward scoring in the league. Technically there are 186 top-6 forwards in the league.

His 58 points the year before placed him 72nd in forward scoring, which means on the average team he'd be the 3rd highest scoring forward.

Now do so with the context that team he played for scored over 300 goals in the season and compare his production to his teammates who he played with.

 

[Melvin]

My best friend is a Canucks Shill to the levels of John Garret and above IMac. He would not in any way agree to my challenge bet of 1 round of golf if the Canucks didn’t make the playoffs next year! He legit would not agree to this because even he knows they won’t make it.

Well that's the thing, they don't even have to make it next year, they just have to make it in either of the next two years. That's a safer bet, but not one that I would do at even odds.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

Well that's the thing, they don't even have to make it next year, they just have to make it in either of the next two years. That's a safer bet, but not one that I would do at even odds.

Would you take my bet? 1 round of Golf if the Canucks don’t make the playoffs in both of the next two years even? That’s a big stretch in confidence for either side. But I’m highly confident this team is run by idiots and will only suffer the longer they are employed.
Would you, at this current date take this bet if you were my friend who supports the team no matter what moves or decisions they make?

 

[kanuck87]

Now do so with the context that team he played for scored over 300 goals in the season and compare his production to his teammates who he played with.

So he's not a top-6 player because he was only a borderline top-6 player on one of the most stacked teams in recent memory?

 

[PetterssonSimp]

So he's not a top-6 player because he was only a borderline top-6 player on one of the most stacked teams in recent memory?

14 mins is legit Top6?
Do you consider Virtanen a legit Top6? He scored more goals in similar minutes last year on a team that scored nearly 100 less goals overall.

 

[kanuck87]

14 mins is legit Top6?
Do you consider Virtanen a legit Top6? He scored more goals in similar minutes last year on a team that scored nearly 100 less goals overall.

56/58/47 points the last three seasons is legit top-6. Virtanen has nowhere near the production, even when you account for the difference in goals for each team.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

So he's not a top-6 player because he was only a borderline top-6 player on one of the most stacked teams in recent memory?

I agree he's a clear top six guy. My beef isn't with the player but with the price. Some people are really under valuing Miller IMO.

 

[Melvin]

Would you take my bet? 1 round of Golf if the Canucks don’t make the playoffs in both of the next two years even? That’s a big stretch in confidence for either side. But I’m highly confident this team is run by idiots and will only suffer the longer they are employed.
Would you, at this current date take this bet if you were my friend who supports the team no matter what moves or decisions they make?

I find that people often speak with hyperbole and refuse to put their money where their mouth is, which is why it's such an effective way to get down to what people *actually* believe.

I just told you I wouldn't make a bet at even odds, but if you gave me, say, 3:5 odds on them making it in either of the next two seasons, I would probably take that.

I don't golf so I have no clue what that equates to, heh.

Put another way, I would bet $100 on them making the playoffs within the next two years if it pays back $267.

 

[settinguptheplay]

JT Miller might retire before the season starts. Lets wait untill he has played through his 4 year contract until we determine the value of this trade.

I said we should at least wait to see where the pick is before we make a final determination on whether it was a good trade or not. As opposed to a reactionary determination without all the details. Seems fair to me. How about we at least wait until we see Miller in our line up for 20 or so games. You can keep defending these emotional appeals to facts all you like. I myself choose to give it a bit of wait and see. It often leads to better results.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I said we should at least wait to see where the pick is before we make a final determination on whether it was a good trade or not. As opposed to a reactionary determination without all the details. Seems fair to me. How about we at least wait until we see Miller in our line up for 20 or so games. You can keep defending these emotional appeals to facts all you like. I myself choose to give it a bit of wait and see. It often leads to better results.

Just because you call it being emotional does not make it so.

We are not a playoff team that is TJ away from contending we are a bottom of the barrel team with very few prospects we should try to make deals that add assets to the organisation, not leak them at every turn. Every metric known to man screams decline for us for next year.


Im going to be honest, I dont really know how to right this ship at this point within Horvats prime. The team has been mismanaged so badly that it is sort of forced to act like its ready for a playoff push because all trade-able assets have been lost or time has passed them by. Benning has really ran this team to the ground and contending for cup isn't in the foreseeable future.

But... lets wait and see. Maybe this year is the year where "rational realist posters" are right and us "negative haters" are wrong.

Unlike the past 5 years.

 

[Fire Benning]

You have to evaluate whether or not a trade was a good gamble at the time it was made.

This is a gamble I just don’t feel comfortable making.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

You have to evaluate whether or not a trade was a good gamble at the time it was made.

This is a gamble I just don’t feel comfortable making.

The proof will be when the team hits the ice next year.Its either ballsy,or downright stupid....I'd say that Benning has pretty much gambled his job with this transaction.

 

[Cupless44]

Miller is a decent player. Have no problem with adding him. But surrendering a first round pick to a desperate team in salary cap hell is the short sighted, impulsive move of an incompetent GM with no patience or negotiating ability.

 

[Pavel96]

Middle 6 Tweener. I don’t know why people say he’s a legit Top6! If 14 mins a night is legit Top6 someone tell Virtanen’s agent, he’s signed for way too little.
Also this contract, is the new benchmark number for guys like virtanen who are capable of playing above Miller’s production in similar usage like top6 and PP times with the best players.

Yeah, the post you highlighted above shows how giving Miller a guaranteed top 6 role with either Petterson or Horvat will not guarantee multiple career years to follow.

I just don't understand how such a young, healthy, legit point producing machine, guaranteed top 6 player, at apparently a very reasonable contract- has just been traded for his second time in two years.

 

[CpatainCanuck]

The chance of the 1st being a lottery pick is certainly a risk, but unlike some here I think the Canucks will make the playoffs at least one of the 2 years.

This coming year the canucks will have Miller, Hughes, and Juolevi in the mix (+ probably at least one good free agent signing) without losing anyone of any significance.

The Canucks had Boeser, Pettersson, Edler, Tanev, Baertchi and others missing significant time with injuries last year as well as playing through nagging injuries for parts of the year. There has got to be hope that there will be fewer injury issues this coming year.

The year after it looks like Tryamkin will join the Canucks. A Canucks D lineup that has Hughes, Edler, Tanev(?) Tryamkin, Juolevi, Stetcher(?) and Hutton(?) in the mix actually looks pretty ok.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

I find that people often speak with hyperbole and refuse to put their money where their mouth is, which is why it's such an effective way to get down to what people *actually* believe.

I just told you I wouldn't make a bet at even odds, but if you gave me, say, 3:5 odds on them making it in either of the next two seasons, I would probably take that.

I don't golf so I have no clue what that equates to, heh.

Put another way, I would bet $100 on them making the playoffs within the next two years if it pays back $267.

Well a round of golf at a high quality course can run $100 a round. So basically 3 rounds you win 5 rounds I win is something you’d accept? But straight up no? That’s honestly pretty fair way to say no I guess.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

Yeah, the post you highlighted above shows how giving Miller a guaranteed top 6 role with either Petterson or Horvat will not guarantee multiple career years to follow.

I just don't understand how such a young, healthy, legit point producing machine, guaranteed top 6 player, at apparently a very reasonable contract- has just been traded for his second time in two years.

It baffles me too, it’s almost as if his production is relied upon quality teammates and not actual play driving personally. Kinda like his on ice game. Complimentary winger in all forms of the word

 

[settinguptheplay]

Just because you call it being emotional does not make it so.

We are not a playoff team that is TJ away from contending we are a bottom of the barrel team with very few prospects we should try to make deals that add assets to the organisation, not leak them at every turn. Every metric known to man screams decline for us for next year.


Im going to be honest, I dont really know how to right this ship at this point within Horvats prime. The team has been mismanaged so badly that it is sort of forced to act like its ready for a playoff push because all trade-able assets have been lost or time has passed them by. Benning has really ran this team to the ground and contending for cup isn't in the foreseeable future.

But... lets wait and see. Maybe this year is the year where "rational realist posters" are right and us "negative haters" are wrong.

Unlike the past 5 years.

Ok. At least this one is hockey related.

Let's set certain facts straight first. I do not actually like this trade. The potential to lose big is too great and it does not sit well with me. Also worries the hell out of me that we are going to overpay big time in free agency. The pressure is now on to win now. Often leading to disastrous results. The only point I am trying to make is that we wait a period of time before losing our heads. Yet some seem to take real issue with that. But I do like Miller as a player. He does make our team better today. As of this moment I think we easily won this trade. But that is because we have not had to pay our share yet. And I do not know what that share is going to be. So I cannot make a final determination until I better understand the final cost.

Also, that 1st could have been used to shore up a bigger weakness and that is a quality RD. I am not pooping rainbows about this trade. That is an assumption others have made. But that does not mean I cannot see value in the trade as of today. We are a better team next year with Miller on it than a 1st round pick in a future draft. Time may change that but I am willing to give it some time.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Ok. At least this one is hockey related.

Let's set certain facts straight first. I do not actually like this trade. The potential to lose big is too great and it does not sit well with me. Also worries the hell out of me that we are going to overpay big time in free agency. The pressure is now on to win now. Often leading to disastrous results. The only point I am trying to make is that we wait a period of time before losing our heads. Yet some seem to take real issue with that. But I do like Miller as a player. He does make our team better today. As of this moment I think we easily won this trade. But that is because we have not had to pay our share yet. And I do not know what that share is going to be. So I cannot make a final determination until I better understand the final cost.

Also, that 1st could have been used to shore up a bigger weakness and that is a quality RD. I am not pooping rainbows about this trade. That is an assumption others have made. But that does not mean I cannot see value in the trade as of today. We are a better team next year with Miller on it than a 1st round pick in a future draft. Time may change that but I am willing to give it some time.

I like this post, where you explain your point of view in greater detail. Might be just on me, having seen you as part of a certain click on these boards.

I think we have waited long enough with our current management. Nothing has changed with them. Like you pointed out this is very likely the beginning of a disastrous summer.

I falsely presumed that we wouldnt go this route when we used our 1st rounder on a guy who most likely wont be here for 2 years maybe more. So day 2s full 180 of all in for the playoff push type move has me extremely dissapointed, once again.

 

[Blue and Green]

I just don't understand how such a young, healthy, legit point producing machine, guaranteed top 6 player, at apparently a very reasonable contract- has just been traded for his second time in two years.

Because the Rangers were selling off just about every decent player that they had, and subsequently Tampa had to make some cap room and the only two vets with sizable salaries who didn't have trade protection were Miller and Kucherov.

 

[canucksfan]

The problem with the first in 2021 is no matter how good a team looks on paper, there's so much parity within the league a slow start or a a key injury, and it's fairly possible a team could miss the playoffs. Once the team misses the playoffs there's always a shot of the pick turning into a top three pick.

Looking ahead at the 2021 Canucks and the forwards should be very good but the defense will likely suck and Markstrom is a UFA after this year.

 

[CCF]

This is an awful deal, but is in line with Benning and Co. continuously being fleeced for value in the trades they make. It's been a constant since 2014 so hardly presents as a surprise. This team is going nowhere so long as this management group is here.

 

[passive voice]

The thing that I think that people are missing is that the conditions on the pick dramatically decrease the odds of it being a top-15 pick. All that needs to happen for it NOT to be a top-15 pick is for the Canucks to make the playoffs in EITHER of the next two seasons. Is that a bet I would make? Probably not, but it's really not outlandish. You think there is a 0% chance the Canucks make the playoffs in the next two seasons? Of course not. So what is it then? If it's 50/50 then does the trade become acceptable?
...

I appreciate that you're being level-headed and talking through the probabilities on this. I would also suggest that with no protection on the 2021 the downside risk is staggering. This is a trade we might win 60% of the time, but I think the EV is still negative (and I really like Miller).

 

[alternate]

I like Miller the player. He should be a nice fit in our top 9, can produce 5v5, and brings cost certainty. We are a better team with him.

I'm okay in principle with moving next year's first, especially when it's lottery protected.

If we were a top 5 team in the conference and made this deal at the TDL, it would be a great trade.

As is, I don't like it. Don't feel Miller is the right target to use our #1 on. For it to pay off, Miller needs to continue being a 20g/50p player with significant regular strength production and we need to become a perennial playoff team from next season onwards.