Confirmed with Link: [VAN/MTL] Dale Weise for Raphael Diaz part 2

[MathMan]

Look at all those crease shots on Murray's heat map. For a guy who's supposed to be clearing the crease, it sure doesn't seem to be happening much.

 

[Et le But]

You cannot honesltly say that Murray NOW is worse than Murray from two months ago. The guy had no training camp and was playing one game every 2 or 3, with Bouillon in and out,too.

Stats don't tell the whole story. I am pretty sure the other players on the ice and Price feel more secure with Murray than with Diaz.

Apparently even Therrien doesn't feel that secure with Murray on even strength, because he shelters him like he's a goon. Murray is on the ice for toughness, not defense, at least at even strength.

His PK ability has improved as the season has gone on though, when he's not expected to move he can contribute on the PK, that's for sure.

Look at all those crease shots on Murray's heat map. For a guy who's supposed to be clearing the crease, it sure doesn't seem to be happening much.

Murray does appear to be an improvement on a guy like Diaz when it comes to preventing rebounds (and this is low bar), but those deflection numbers are hideous. Clearing the crease is good and all, but if you immediately give the puck back to the opposition for a clean or deflected shot opportunity...I'm not sure what the point is.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Did you watch playoffs last year when Diaz looked like garbage

Was it the same playoffs where at least all of Markov, Gorges, Bouillon, and even Tinordi also looked "like garbage"? Because that does sound familiar... I also remember Ottawa winning the last 3 games of that series in no small way on the strength of 6 PP goals, and can't help seeing penalty minutes like PK: 31, Bouillon: 17, Tinordi: 15, Gorges: 4, Markov/Diaz... 0.

But why was Diaz playing over 22 mins/night in the playoffs anyway? You should direct some attention to that one.

 

[HankyZetts]

Even if it were true, and I don't think it is, I think Price would prefer it to trying to pick up after Murray versus offensive minnows.

Hmm.. Did you see Murray vs Lucic and Chara last game against them? Byfuglien? Dude those are battles we lost outright, all the time, pre-crankshaft. Those are important wars going on there, over the season and into the playoffs. They matter a lot no matter how easily they are measured. Bet you Price loves that, and actually I'm pretty sure there are quite a few quotes from Carey talking about how much he appreciates Murray.

They clearly want to play Beaulieu over Diaz. That's not a problem. The problem is wanting to play Murray over Diaz, too, which is ultimately what this transaction boils down to. Diaz should have been playing over Murray before Beaulieu showed up and he should have been playing over Murray after Beaulieu showed up. Beaulieu emerging only meant that they had too many defensemen in the press box and they, quite simply, traded the wrong one.

I disagree. It's all about roles. I take Markov, Subban, Beaulieu as my puck movers over Diaz and we have Gorges and Emelin providing 2-way/DFD with Murray as a specialist. Simply no room for Diaz as he is no specialist and not better than anyone else.

 

[Runner77]

I'm not one of those who's a proponent of 'size over everything'

I don't know that anyone is. Moar size doesn't mean adding pylons. But please, carry on the myth of these naive proponents of the neanderthal school of regressive hockey.

 

[417]

Thank goodness he doesn't play much. The Habs still managed to get outscored 5-17 at 5-on-5 with Murray on the ice, despite him playing so little. That's quite the achievement. I'd hate to know where they'd be if that doubled.

Again...I guess Murray (who btw, i'm not a fan of) is solely responsible for every goal that's scored when he's on the ice. The reason he must be so bad is because Therrien puts him out there 1 on 5 obviously

sorry about the sarcasm, but I really can't put much stock into numbers like these. They only paint part of the picture, yet you're using him as a complete argument. You're no giving any context behind these numbers. They can't be taken seriously on their own.

Diaz is not that insignificant, but he's ultimately a symptom of the deeper problem. The problem is in the philosophy. The problem is that this move is part of a sequence that saw the Habs sign Murray (an awful defenseman), sign Parros (actually a worse player than Murray), implement a dump-and-chase system, then trade Diaz, a superior player, to keep Murray in the lineup, and gradually go from one of the league's better 5-on-5 club to dangerously close to the worst. All to feed the belief that size is a magical quality that will make the team win more even when they play worse.

This is the same philosophy that guided the construction of the Maple Leafs. It's also the philosophy that led the Sabres to self-destruct.

Actually...Diaz is VERY insignificant because he wasn't part of this teams plans for the past 2 weeks. He was a significant as Francis Bouillon is now.

As for Habs implementing a dump-and-chase system? Give me a break. The Habs aren't playing any differently then they did last year. You guys put way too much stock into 'systems'.

Also, the Habs haven't been one of the league's better 5 on 5 clubs in YEARS. One year in short season as a sample size doesn't mean they were a strong even strength team since as the year went on, their even strength numbers were spiralling downwards at an alarming pace.

He's a big problem on his own, but worse, he's emblematic. The problem is the front office's belief that players like Murray are useful. That belief is the crack in the engine block. That Murray is so demonstrably bad and that the org still insists in playing him, even moving other players to make room, points to a pretty nasty long-term problem

Look, once more, i'm not a fan of Douglas Murray...I agree that he's a brutal hockey player. HOWEVER, it is completely false to say that he has no use. There are things that can't be quantified with advanced stats, there are certain things that happen during a game outside of numbers and just within the game, they're usually referred to intangibles (like the boost the Habs got when Murray was a key figure in killing that 5 on 3 PP last night) and they DO matter to teams. Murray isn't there to contribute on the scoresheet or to look like an effective player on Corsi/Fenwick spreadsheets...The Habs have other players for this.

Murray is there to keep other players honest, to provide a presence, whether realistically or organically (both matter), there's a mental & emotional aspect to sport that just can't be measured with stats that you continuously ignore. It's not the end all be all, but it DOES matter.

You're never going to get me to say that Douglas Murray is a solid hockey player, he's not. But he does have a use and a role to play on this team. If this team can't score goals and is once against poor at even strength, it's not HIS responsibility because he's not a component of either of those elements.

 

[habitue*]

Apparently even Therrien doesn't feel that secure with Murray on even strength, because he shelters him like he's a goon. Murray is on the ice for toughness, not defense, at least at even strength.

His PK ability has improved as the season has gone on though, when he's not expected to move he can contribute on the PK, that's for sure.



Murray does appear to be an improvement on a guy like Diaz when it comes to preventing rebounds (and this is low bar), but those deflection numbers are hideous. Clearing the crease is good and all, but if you immediately give the puck back to the opposition for a clean or deflected shot opportunity...I'm not sure what the point is.

In the last 5-10 games; he has played over 16 minutes, which is fine for a #5-#6 d-man in this league.

His +/- stats (for what it is worthing) are stable since the time when he was really a liability on the ice.

At worst, the guy will leave next July. And Tinordi will finally got a spot at NHL level.

As I wrote before, you need different tools in your toolbox, and you need a d-corp who can handle physical play. Sorry, but Diaz was no longer needed.

 

[Et le But]

Hmm.. Did you see Murray vs Lucic and Chara last game against them? Byfuglien? Dude those are battles we lost outright, all the time, pre-crankshaft. Those are important wars going on there, over the season and into the playoffs. They matter a lot no matter how easily they are measured. Bet you Price loves that, and actually I'm pretty sure there are quite a few quotes from Carey talking about how much he appreciates Murray.

The Bruins and the Jets are actually two of our best matchups in recent years, with or without Murray, so if he offered us something we lacked before there, it's because we already had the advantage there.

But fair enough, you, like Therrien, at least agree that Murray is there mostly for toughness and not actually overall defensive ability. While I think players like Parros and Murray's negatives outweigh their positives, use them from time to time as specialists and at least they can be entertaining.

But it's becoming a problem when Murray ends up playing every night, because Murray is a possession sink. Maybe that will change with Drewiske coming back, though the evidence doesn't make me optimistic Drewiske is even as good as Diaz.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

I just don't see how a few extra big hits can make up for giving up that many more scoring chances, especially when Murray is too slow to even make the most of his hitting ability.

Just looking at those numbers, do I see 28 more slot events counted over a 1000 shot sample. So less than 3% difference. That's not very interesting at first glance. While the colour patterns are mesmerizing, it initially suggests to me that, despite filling VASTLY different roles in VASTLY different ways, there wasn't much difference to be measured this way.

 

[MathMan]

Hmm.. Did you see Murray vs Lucic and Chara last game against them? Byfuglien? Dude those are battles we lost outright, all the time, pre-crankshaft.

I definitely remember that Winnipeg geme, where Murray was hard-matched against Byfuglien...and got dominated. If those big guys are a problem, then Murray would appear to not be a very good solution.

Against Boston, the Beaulieu-Murray pairing was the least used against Lucic and Chara. It was not a significant matchup throughout the game.

I disagree. It's all about roles. I take Markov, Subban, Beaulieu as my puck movers over Diaz and we have Gorges and Emelin providing 2-way/DFD with Murray as a specialist. Simply no room for Diaz as he is no specialist and not better than anyone else.

Real life is not NHL '14. In real life, you don't actually need an OFD and a DFD on every pairing to max out your chemistry meter. You can make a pairing of two "puck-movers" and have it work very well -- remember the Markov-Subban pairing?

Nevermind that Murray is actually not good at defense in the first place, so calling him a "defensive defenseman" is already a bit of a stretch. Conversely, a lot of puck-movers are strong at positional defense, a far more important skill than simple size.

 

[gunnerdom]

Wow! you guys are still not over that Diaz trade? This is crazy! You people really care that much about Diaz?

I admit I prefer Diaz over Murray but in the end... I really don't care that much. I doubt it makes much different at the end of the day which player is with us and which is not. And to be fair, Diaz wasn't playing, threrrien didn't seem to like what he brought and for his sake, I rather we move him so he can play.

 

[417]

Look at all those crease shots on Murray's heat map. For a guy who's supposed to be clearing the crease, it sure doesn't seem to be happening much.

Murray is not solely responsible for preventing crease shots...correct me if i'm wrong, but when Murray's on the ice, he's usually on with our 3rd and 4th lines is he not?

and when the Habs are on the road, the opposing coach will obviously try to exploit the Habs while Murray is on the ice.

I don't understand why you would expect to see a guy who is a #6 dman, have a pristine heat map.

If Murray's heat map was pristine, he wouldn't be a #6dman...

I bet if you look at most teams bottom pairing dmen, they'll have similar heat maps...

That's why they're on the bottom pair

 

[habitue*]

The Bruins and the Jets are actually two of our best matchups in recent years, with or without Murray, so if he offered us something we lacked before there, it's because we already had the advantage there.

But fair enough, you, like Therrien, at least agree that Murray is there mostly for toughness and not actually overall defensive ability. While I think players like Parros and Murray's negatives outweigh their positives, use them from time to time as specialists and at least they can be entertaining.

But it's becoming a problem when Murray ends up playing every night, because Murray is a possession sink. Maybe that will change with Drewiske coming back, though the evidence doesn't make me optimistic Drewiske is even as good as Diaz.

You know darn well that sometimes a team got lost of successes against some other teams and way less against some others. Ottawa, even Florida own us. And we can go thru all the stats and see that for every single NHL team.

But if you think the habs can handle physical play over a 82-game schedule +Playoffs on a regular basis, you are mistaken.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

You people really care that much about Diaz?

I think the more obvious case is that people really care that much about others' opinions of Diaz. And Murray. And Beaulieu. Obviously. I feel like I'm defending all of them from, like, 9 different sides, lol!

 

[Sorinth]

I don't personally put much stock into what happens in October-November-December...

As for usage, the Habs simply don't have a roster built to play either the possession game you all want them to play - for any sustained amount of time at least - nor do they have a roster built to be a high scoring offensive team

The Habs DON'T have 2-3 offensive scoring lines, no matter what combination you put together.

There's a big disconnect amongst our fanbase between what's on the ice in terms of personnel and what some of you think this team is.

I think it's absolutely ridiculous to think the coaching staff is preventing this team from fulfilling it's offensive potential...

Give me a break

Why do the first three months of the season not count? Why does all of last season not count? And what makes possession game unsustainable for the Habs?

We had great possession numbers, and then the coaching staff made a major change in philosophy and our possession numbers have gone into the toilet. You've yet to explain why if we went back to the earlier philosophy we couldn't get the same results we had earlier.

How do you explain virtually every player on team is not fulfilling their offensive potential if it's not coaching/usage?

 

[417]

The Bruins and the Jets are actually two of our best matchups in recent years, with or without Murray, so if he offered us something we lacked before there, it's because we already had the advantage there.

But fair enough, you, like Therrien, at least agree that Murray is there mostly for toughness and not actually overall defensive ability. While I think players like Parros and Murray's negatives outweigh their positives, use them from time to time as specialists and at least they can be entertaining.

But it's becoming a problem when Murray ends up playing every night, because Murray is a possession sink. Maybe that will change with Drewiske coming back, though the evidence doesn't make me optimistic Drewiske is even as good as Diaz.

There are some healthy bodies coming back...there's going to be another roster move either before the Olympic break or soon after the trade freeze is lifted

I don't expect Murray to continue being a regular dman for the rest of the year...at some point, he'll go back to being a platoon player or just not used at all

I suspect Drewiskie will eventually slide into his spot

 

[Et le But]

Just looking at those numbers, do I see 28 more slot events counted over a 1000 shot sample. So less than 3% difference. That's not very interesting at first glance. While the colour patterns are mesmerizing, it initially suggests to me that, despite filling VASTLY different roles in VASTLY different ways, there wasn't much difference to be measured this way.

The problem is that for a team already struggling on possession, every time Murray is on the ice he is resulting in more good shot attempts by the opposing team. He's a liability, okay, you can say the numbers mean he's an insignificant liability, but when the team is worse both offensively and defensively when he is on the ice, what exactly is this role he is expected to fill?

If the best we can say about Diaz is that he's not a liability, I'd take that role over the liability.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

I don't understand why you would expect to see a guy who is a #6 dman, have a pristine heat map.

If Murray's heat map was pristine, he wouldn't be a #6dman...

That's a pretty fair point. Interesting to consider from either direction (because one could turn this very chicken-eggy pretty quickly when you consider how roles evolve as the players do too).

 

[417]

Why do the first three months of the season not count? Why does all of last season not count? And what makes possession game unsustainable for the Habs?

We had great possession numbers, and then the coaching staff made a major change in philosophy and our possession numbers have gone into the toilet. You've yet to explain why if we went back to the earlier philosophy we couldn't get the same results we had earlier.

How do you explain virtually every player on team is not fulfilling their offensive potential if it's not coaching/usage?

Because I don't actually think the true identities of teams begin to reveal themselves until after xmas...There's a big difference between cold & hot streaks, and season trends.

As for what makes Habs possesion game unsustainable...well they're simply not built for him. Any strong possesion team is strong down the middle, and the Habs are very weak down the middle. This is a critical flaw within the team that until it is fixed, they will never be able to play a possesion game that fans would like them to play.

Also, I find it ridiculous to think that the coaching staff would intentionally sabotage the team by going away from what made them successful to play a style that doesn't make them successful. Teams have just adjusted to Habs style, early in the year, teams weren't as aggressive on Habs dmen on the forecheck and they'd allow them to have free exits out of their zone, which is why when Subban/Markov were paired up early, they were just shredding teams.

But like I said earlier, at some point after enough games...teams adjust, which is why the coaching staff had to split up Markov/Subban because they were getting killed with no other puck movers on their other pairs.

This has nothing to do with going back to the old philosophy...nothing has changed, they're just not as effective as they used to be.

 

[417]

The problem is that for a team already struggling on possession, every time Murray is on the ice he is resulting in more good shot attempts by the opposing team. He's a liability, okay, you can say the numbers mean he's an insignificant liability, but when the team is worse both offensively and defensively when he is on the ice, what exactly is this role he is expected to fill?

If the best we can say about Diaz is that he's not a liability, I'd take that role over the liability.

Wrong...the team struggles with possesion no matter who is on the ice.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

The problem is that for a team already struggling on possession, every time Murray is on the ice he is resulting in more good shot attempts by the opposing team. He's a liability, okay, you can say the numbers mean he's an insignificant liability, but when the team is worse both offensively and defensively when he is on the ice, what exactly is this role he is expected to fill?

If the best we can say about Diaz is that he's not a liability, I'd take that role over the liability.

With respect to Murray specifically, his assets to the "team composition" weigh more heavily than advanced statistical comparison to those who have, and always will, earn larger roles with the team. That's my opinion, anyway.

Diaz's assets, to me, were always cost, well-rounded skills, international experience, RHS, versatility of role/willingness to accept it, relative smoothness of his initial translation to the NHL, and the timing of his career arc. The only thing that threatened to change was cost. Much more than simply "not a liability", or so the numbers suggest.

But we really haven't talked enough about Dale Weise, have we.

 

[habitue*]

Wrong...the team struggles with possesion no matter who is on the ice.

That's pretty much it. And Diaz was not a diffrence maker.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

I'm not one of those who's a proponent of 'size over everything'

But a defense corps that includes...

Subban/Gorges/Markov/Emelin/Diaz/Beaulieu...

Ugh...Might as well invite players camp out below our goaline and in front of Price all game long.

So the solution is to be manhandled by skill for 10 minutes with Murray on the ice then go back to them sitting on Price?

That's insane logic.

For what Murray does well to actually help they need to be attached to a decent player. Otherwise they just find another way to beat you.

 

[MathMan]

Murray is not solely responsible for preventing crease shots...correct me if i'm wrong, but when Murray's on the ice, he's usually on with our 3rd and 4th lines is he not?

and when the Habs are on the road, the opposing coach will obviously try to exploit the Habs while Murray is on the ice.

Obviously. They want to exploit the vulnerable guy. Still, you'd expect him to do better than the average 6th D-man if it's supposed to be a strength of his.

I don't understand why you would expect to see a guy who is a #6 dman, have a pristine heat map.

If Murray's heat map was pristine, he wouldn't be a #6dman...

*eyes Diaz's heat map* Sure looks like a lot less crease shots there. Hmm.

 

[MathMan]

Also, I find it ridiculous to think that the coaching staff would intentionally sabotage the team by going away from what made them successful to play a style that doesn't make them successful.

You're assuming the coaching staff understand what's happening. I don't think they intentionally sabotaged anything, I think they just don't know better.