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Proposal: Value of San Jose 2025 1st

Cas said:
Why would our pick this year be of any relevance to our chances of picking #1 next year? Whoever we're drafting isn't going to take this team out of the basement in one season.
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That was my underlying point. Keep the pick. Hope you get first and you draft Schaefer. Get your cornerstone blue liner.
 
If a GM was to give the Sharks what they would want, the pressure that GM would be under to draft the right player....oof.... Only a team with an active owner or GM who doesn't care about his job; would do this.
 
BLNY said:
Is the idea to trade it so they can better position themselves for McKenna?
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We usually get a generic 'it's my job to gauge the market' statement from GMs. I remember in 2017 that Ron Hextall said he would listen on offers for #2 which then led to some deceptive TSN headlines that implied that the Flyers were heavily shopping the pick.

San Jose has a 25.5% chance at retaining #1, 18.8% chance of dropping to #2, and a 55.7% chance of being pushed to #3. The latter scenario I could see the Sharks being more motivated to move the pick potentially since that layer has the three centers (Hagens/Desnoyers/Frondell) which might not fit San Jose's needs. There might be a couple teams willing to move up a couple spots. San Jose could maybe move down and still land Porter Martone. Or if a young established RHD were dangled, that may be of interest?

Gaylord Q Tinkledink said:
They're always open to trading it, but there's not going to be a deal.
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We've had some interesting offers/intentions get leaked in recent years.

2010: Edmonton tried to get back into the top 5 for Ryan Johansen. Columbus wanted Jordan Eberle in the package and that was the sticking point.

2012; Garth Snow channeled his inner Mike Ditka and offered up his entire draft to move up to #2 for Ryan Murray.

2014: Draft is in Philadelphia and Ron Hextall was in his first draft as Flyers GM. Florida was willing to listen on #1 and the two sides had conversations. As I remember it, the Flyers offered something around Brayden Schenn, Vinny Lecavalier, and #17. Florida GM Dale Tallon wanted Wayne Simmonds in the deal and that became the road block.

2015: Boston offered Dougie Hamilton to Arizona for #3 so they could presumably take Noah Hanifin. Arizona countered with their 2016 1st instead. Boston decided to deal Hamilton to Calgary for #15, #45, and #52.

2016: On the draft broadcast, the TSN guys said something was brewing between Columbus (#3), Edmonton (#4), and Calgary (#6). Calgary would have moved up to #3 (not sure for who), Columbus would have dropped to #4 to still take Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Edmonton would have dropped to #6 to take Mikhail Sergachev. If I recall correctly, Edmonton got cold feet due to the optics of allowing their rivals to trade up.

Edmonton also had something on the table with the Rangers for Ryan McDonagh. New York was targeting Clayton Keller.

And then I think there was something around P.K. Subban to Vancouver for #5 contingent on Dubois being available?

2017: Vegas was in its first draft and looking to make a splash. They wanted to trade up to #1 for Nolan Patrick (they'd get him a few years later). New Jersey was willing to move down to #3 since they'd still be guaranteed at least one of Nico Hischier or Cale Makar would be there if Patrick went #1. Vegas approached Dallas about trading down from #3 to #6 but got stonewalled. Dreger said the Rangers (targeting Elias Pettersson) also offered #7 and #21 to Dallas but were rebuffed.

2023: Draft is in Nashville and the Preds were trying to trade into the top 4 to land one of the centers (Fantilli/Carlsson/Smith).

2024: Chicago tried to trade back into the top 5 for Demidov.
 
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BHFAN92 said:
with Grier sounding at least open to trading the pick what would be some offers that would be acceptable? Hypothetical San Jose lands #1 ova what would it take?
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A comp in terms of getting someone in around age 25/26 is the Van and Det trade of Hronek in 2023 TDL. He was 7 years post draft (drafted in 2016). Hronek had 1 full year left on his contract plus had 1 RFA year after that contract ended before he became a UFA. Cost was the NYI 1st at like 17/18, plus Van's 2nd at the mid 40's. So, Van was guaranteed 2 years of service.

Unless it's a prospect still on ELC, I don't think SJ should be expecting more than 2 more years of RFA control . You'd be trading away uncertainty for some form of certainty.
 
Depends on the team, but if the 1st was available I would only trade it to drop down no further than 6, which means Chicago, Boston, Nashville, Philadelphia and Seattle (if lotto remains as is). I would want at least an additional first and an A prospect or an established star and a prospect, preferably a D-man. So that would mean:

Boston: McAvoy, Minten
Nashville: Molendyk and Wood and Andrew Gibson
Philadelphia: Oliver Bonk and Foerster
Chicago (I don't see it happening)
Seattle: Firkus? I don't really see much in their system

So I really don't see any of these teams having the pieces or would be willing to give up that much.
 
TheBeard said:
Depends on the team, but if the 1st was available I would only trade it to drop down no further than 6, which means Chicago, Boston, Nashville, Philadelphia and Seattle (if lotto remains as is). I would want at least an additional first and an A prospect or an established star and a prospect, preferably a D-man. So that would mean:

Boston: McAvoy, Minten
Nashville: Molendyk and Wood and Andrew Gibson
Philadelphia: Oliver Bonk and Foerster
Chicago (I don't see it happening)
Seattle: Firkus? I don't really see much in their system

So I really don't see any of these teams having the pieces or would be willing to give up that much.
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Yep Boston is the only interesting one to me, but you'd have to get Pastrnak or McAvoy out of it
 
Any discussion on this is premature before we know the results of the draft lottery

There's a huge difference in value, both to the Sharks internally and on the trade market, between picks #1 & #3 this year

Personally, I'm of the mind that we should just stand pat no matter what and take our internally rated BPA, but know knows what Grier is thinking, this draft isn't nearly as exciting as last year's was
 
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SML2 said:
#1OA has only b
een traded 5 times and it has never been a win for the team that traded it. Are you happy you took Kozlov instead of Vinny Lecavalier?
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The Kozlov trade happened in November 1997 so Florida didn't realize they were moving a top pick as they had made the playoffs the previous season. San Jose then managed to use Florida's lottery odds as an asset at the 1998 deadline to land Bryan Marchment. But at no point did Florida/SJ know they were dealing the top pick.

Rick Dudley was involved with trading #1 in 1999, 2002, and 2003. In each instance he was able to trade down and still land the guy they were intending to take. So it wasn't a matter of "value" per se.

In 1999, Tampa just hired Dudley and he was debating between Pavel Brendl and Daniel Sedin. He held it pretty close to the vest to the point where Tampa's own scouts weren't sure what they were going to do. After the draft, Dudley said Tampa would have taken Brendl. Brian Burke was publicly trying to get both Sedins so that was hardly a secret. Simultaneously the Rangers were trying to move up for Brendl after their deal for Ziggy Palffy fell through.

Dudley inherited a relatively barren franchise, so he opted to trade the pick to the Rangers (Sundstrom/Cloutier/future 1st+3rd). Since the Rangers wanted Brendl, Dudley begrudgingly accepted Burke's meager trade up (two 3rds).

In 2002, Dudley was now GM in Florida and Jay Bouwmeester was the presumed #1 pick. But Dudley worked out a creative deal with Columbus where Florida moved down to #3 and still got Bouwmeester. Columbus was picking #3 and got spooked when Philly moved to #4. They were worried about the Flyers then moving up to #2 for Rick Nash since Columbus didn't want Kari Lehtonen or Joni Pitkanen.

Maybe inspired by Phil Esposito's 1998 deadline deal where he dealt Marchment for extra lottery odds, Florida picked up the option to swap picks with Columbus for 2003. They then paid Atlanta a third rounder to bypass Bouwmeester.

And then finally in 2003, Florida had Nathan Horton ranked #1 on their board. They figured they could trade down a couple spots and still get him. Dudley kinda shamelessly tried to drum up a bidding war between Carolina/Pittsburgh, but in the end he accepted a relatively small return to move down to #3.
 
TheBeard said:
Depends on the team, but if the 1st was available I would only trade it to drop down no further than 6, which means Chicago, Boston, Nashville, Philadelphia and Seattle (if lotto remains as is). I would want at least an additional first and an A prospect or an established star and a prospect, preferably a D-man. So that would mean:

Boston: McAvoy, Minten
Nashville: Molendyk and Wood and Andrew Gibson
Philadelphia: Oliver Bonk and Foerster
Chicago (I don't see it happening)
Seattle: Firkus? I don't really see much in their system

So I really don't see any of these teams having the pieces or would be willing to give up that much.
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The Philly one is the most interesting.But, not for 1oa.
I'd have included Jani Nyman from Sea
 
Grinner said:
Agreed
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Ricky Williams trade was just as bad

Traded to New Orleans
1999 first round pick (5th overall, Ricky Williams)

Traded to Washington
1999 first round pick 12th overall]
1999 third round pick 71st overall,
1999 fourth round pick 107th overall,
1999 fifth round pick 144th overall,
1999 sixth round pick 179th overall,
1999 seventh round pick 218th overall,
2000 first round pick
2000 third round pick

No one's touching that so it's pretty safe to say he set the bar unrealistically high meaning it's highly unlikely to be traded barring serious overpayment. No need to haggle over fair value offers here as yes looking for robbery
 
BillR10 said:
Ricky Williams trade was just as bad

Traded to New Orleans
1999 first round pick (5th overall, Ricky Williams)

Traded to Washington
1999 first round pick 12th overall]
1999 third round pick 71st overall,
1999 fourth round pick 107th overall,
1999 fifth round pick 144th overall,
1999 sixth round pick 179th overall,
1999 seventh round pick 218th overall,
2000 first round pick
2000 third round pick

No one's touching that so it's pretty safe to say he set the bar unrealistically high meaning it's highly unlikely to be traded barring serious overpayment. No need to haggle over fair value offers here as yes looking for robbery
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Yeah, neither trade worked out Weil for the team giving up the ransom
 
For shits and giggles Filip Forsberg + Vegas's 1st ?

Nashville blows it up, leaves the draft with Schaefer, Misa/Hagens and local boy Fiddler.
Forsberg is paired with Celebrini.
 
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