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Salary Cap: Value of nylanders next contract

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Matt Tkachuk just signed for 8 Yeats X 9.5M after finishing 6th in league scoring and also bringing a lot more physicality than Nylander.

Gaudreau just signed for 7 years X 9.75M after finishing 4th in league scoring (not his first top 5 finish).

Filip Forsberg is in the first year of an 8 years X 8.5M deal.

Using those as comparisons, I'd say Nylander should be something like 8 years X 9M. He's probably a similar calibre player to Forsberg (different styles though), and not as good as the other two.

In saying that, our own internal cap structure will work against us, and he's going to look at what Tavares, Matthews, and Marner all get paid.
 
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613Leafer said:
Matt Tkachuk just signed for 8 Yeats X 9.5M after finishing 6th in league scoring and also bringing a lot more physicality than Nylander.

Gaudreau just signed for 7 years X 9.75M after finishing 4th in league scoring (not his first top 5 finish).

Filip Forsberg is in the first year of an 8 years X 8.5M deal.

Using those as comparisons, I'd say Nylander should be something like 8 years X 9M. He's probably a similar calibre player to Forsberg (different styles though), and not as good as the other two.

In saying that, our own internal cap structure will work against us, and he's going to look at what Tavares, Matthews, and Marner all get paid.
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At the moment I think he's heading to a deal in the 10-11% of the cap range..so 8x9ish mil is fair based on current cap.

He may bring up the internal cap issue. But fact is, he won't be able to use that on other teams who will be looking to pay him the market rate for wingers of his caliber. And the Leafs have the advantage of the 8th year + advantageous bonus structure
 
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Menzinger said:
At the moment I think he's heading to a deal in the 10-11% of the cap range..so 8x9ish mil is fair baer on current cap.

He may bring up the internal cap issue. But fact is, he won't be able to use that on other teams who will be looking to pay him the market rate for wingers of his caliber. And the Leafs have the advantage of the 8th year + advantageous bonus structure
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We had that advantage the last time we did negotiations with the young forwards. Didnt seem to help in the slightest with negotiations, and was just an automatic given that they'd get the bonuses.
 
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Nylander isn't PPG or above for his career like Matthews and Marner are. His career totals in that regard also aren't at the level of a Tavares. I'd prefer to have Nylander's AAV come in below the 10M mark and would certainly be thinking about max term for the vast majority of cases in which the annual salary lies in that neighbourhood.
 
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rocketman588 said:
9-11

Considering his dad and his brother I'm assuming he'll go to the highest bidder and not care about what team that is
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That pretty much describes 93% of the leagues players.

The Leafs have reached the fork in the road they knew was coming as soon as Matthews bent them over for the trap contract.

They need to decide who stays and who they can no longer afford or in reality who doesn't want to stay by asking the moon and stars.

Will gets a 6 year 64m contract, whether it's in Toronto or elsewhere.

Tickets at the ACC would be 800 to 1500 if not for the salary cap.
 
The Pastrnak deal will factor in, just like the last round. Ideally it’s similar to the Rantanen deal but if he outscores 34 and 16 we would be in uncharted territory.
 
Nylander doesnt seem attached to Toronto in any way. I could see him once again, maximizing his contract. His 6.96 million was viewed as high when it was first signed. Now is it a bargain with 80pts a year now. I will guess he will ask for 10 million and have no issue walking away. I can see Matthews similar to this but a little more attached. Marner has the most attachment to this team , I dont think he ever wants to leave.
 
Stephen said:
The Pastrnak deal will factor in, just like the last round. Ideally it’s similar to the Rantanen deal but if he outscores 34 and 16 we would be in uncharted territory.
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Pasta will and should be getting closer to Matthews money than what Nylander will be getting imo. So pastas deal will be a firmer cap on where Nylanders likely looking
 
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613Leafer said:
We had that advantage the last time we did negotiations with the young forwards. Didnt seem to help in the slightest with negotiations, and was just an automatic given that they'd get the bonuses.
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I don't think bonuses will bring the caphit down much but it's a preference that the Leafs can easily give which other teams can't or won't
 
Just saying if that's the ask, I'd take a pass and see where else I could invest that money. He also seems to be following in dad's footsteps in having a fortuitous career year heading into free agency. Sorry to be pessimistic but I assume he gets advice from somewhere and Michael Nylander was well known for taking care of No.1 and then turning in terrible seasons after maximizing pay. Nylander's super talented but I've never gotten a loyalty vibe from him and his give-a-shit motor has always seemed broken. I'd even be looking for deals at the trade deadline for a d-man or a goalie.
 
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My guesses are

13.4 for Matthews
9.6 for nylander
12.6 for marner


Willy has had a great half of the season but the others are about 100 pts ahead. Matty has multiple trophies. Marner is back to back 1st team all star and 97 pt player

He hasn’t earned what they did
Of course if he ends up demanding more then he gets traded hopefully

All of this is fine as long as they don’t lose players for nothing
 
Legion34 said:
My guesses are

13.4 for Matthews
9.6 for nylander
12.6 for marner


Willy has had a great half of the season but the others are about 100 pts ahead. Matty has multiple trophies. Marner is back to back 1st team all star and 97 pt player

He hasn’t earned what they did
Of course if he ends up demanding more then he gets traded hopefully

All of this is fine as long as they don’t lose players for nothing
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Bad news then because that's been the pattern for several years now.
 
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The Hanging Jowl said:
Bad news then because that's been the pattern for several years now.
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That’s a point for sure. But the players they lost for nothing were players they were never keeping. They weren’t core peices. We extended rielly. The cap also wasn’t going up.

We don’t know but every major insider has suggested that they will make a decision this year and trade Matthews if he doesn’t sign (they all think he will but not sure how long term)’

In the event that we walk them for nothing it will be a massive mistake.

Let’s hope it doesn’t happen
 
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If Willie wants to be beloved by Leafs fans, he will give a discount like Rielly did. If he takes every last penny, then he is probably another victim of the cap, or another first round loss.
 
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Legion34 said:
That’s a point for sure. But the players they lost for nothing were players they were never keeping. They weren’t core peices. We extended rielly. The cap also wasn’t going up.

We don’t know but every major insider has suggested that they will make a decision this year and trade Matthews if he doesn’t sign (they all think he will but not sure how long term)’

In the event that we walk them for nothing it will be a massive mistake.

Let’s hope it doesn’t happen
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I have said this here for at least 6 years. Every time you lose assets for nothing, another team benefits and your team suffers. The end result becomes an asset pool deficit and subsequently the team becomes stuck in mediocrity with no cups to show for it.

That's what we are on track for if we do not win this season. This is it, this is the big one, no pressure. After this the slippery slope starts to get steep. They simply really messed up signing those short contracts, it was a huge blunder.
 
The players now have all the leverage. They can pretty much say to Dubas "This is the amount of money I'll stay for. Take it or leave it." And that's the only choice Dubas has. Take it or leave it.

When they were rfa's, DUBAS held all the leverage. "This is how much we're willing to pay you. Take it or leave it. Go play for peanuts in Europe if you like". When that happened, there was a literal online army of people using weird stats to make our players appear better than they really are so that they can rationalize their boy Dubas's overpayments.

If I tried making comparisons to players in Florida or Tenessee, I had thousands of posters SCREAMING at me about taxes. My inbox would be flooded. There were so many posts bellowing about taxes that the entirety of hfboards would usually crash for hours on end if I even thought about making comparisons to cities with no state tax.

And yet here we are in a thread where people are making direct comparisons to players in Florida and Tenessee. Not one PEEP about taxes. Nothing. Because these arguments only exist to push narratives.

In those old threads, proven 20 goal/60 point leaf players were being equated to proven 34/70 point players. Why is THIS no longer happening in reverse? Why are we no longer dismissing lower leaf stats as "less pp time"? Aren't the leafs /60 stats still better than these comparables people are making? WHY HAVE THESE ARGUMENTS DISAPPEARED??????

If Nylander is this good again next year, he will not accept a penny less than 11 mil. I'd be surprised if Matthews takes less than $15. And Marner (who sees himself as Matthews equal) is signing a year later where it is expected the cap to increase quite a bit. So he'll also get around $15, but it will be like 2% less cap percentage.

That's what will happen. You CANNOT just pretend all these arguments you've been making for years no longer apply.
 
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thewave said:
I have said this here for at least 6 years. Every time you lose assets for nothing, another team benefits and your team suffers. The end result becomes an asset pool deficit and subsequently the team becomes stuck in mediocrity with no cups to show for it.

That's what we are on track for if we do not win this season. This is it, this is the big one, no pressure. After this the slippery slope starts to get steep. They simply really messed up signing those short contracts, it was a huge blunder.
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That and thinking you can win with this core surrounded by a bunch of nobodies.
 
ALL LEAF PLAYERS WHEN NEGOTIATING WITH DUBAS

giphy (20).gif
 
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