Value of: Value of Lafreniere to Vancouver

[HogtownSabresfan]

Lafreniere has been showcased last four games with 18+ minutes of ice time (one game 21 minutes) and he's playing his way into Rangers getting the equivalent of a late late 1st round pick. That is what he is worth. Rangers can trade him and take the risk another team fixes or keep waiting and get a 2nd or 3rd equivalent if he continues to do very little.

The value of his #1 overall pedigree is going down and not up. If you are arguing otherwise, please explain.

 

[One Winged Angel]

You’re probably right. I just don’t see Horvat elevating the Rags by any significant margin. I’ve watched them sign and trade for a lot of big name players over the years and most of the time it doesn’t work out.

They might not develop them very well but they do have a solid core of young players. I’m happy to watch them repeat the same mistakes of the past I just don’t think it’s a good idea for them. If they’re going to trade Laf it should be for a sure thing (which is almost impossible)

You keep talking about a history that of signing big name players that haven’t worked out, but this is going back 10+ years.

You’re going back to Gomez, Drury, Redden, Holik, etc.

Jagr, Nash, Gaborik and Panarin all had good to great runs in NY. St. Louis was even a big contributor in his twilight years.

You’re running with an outdated narrative.

 

[GAGLine]

Lafreniere has been showcased last four games with 18+ minutes of ice time (one game 21 minutes) and he's playing his way into Rangers getting the equivalent of a late late 1st round pick. That is what he is worth. Rangers can trade him and take the risk another team fixes or keep waiting and get a 2nd or 3rd equivalent if he continues to do very little.

The value of his #1 overall pedigree is going down and not up. If you are arguing otherwise, please explain.

He's not getting showcased. He has been playing on line 1 and PP1 because Kreider was injured.

The issue isn't his value, it's what the payment would need to be for the Rangers to trade him. They aren't the same thing. The return needs to be good enough that the Rangers are willing to risk him breaking out on another team. A late 1st isn't that. The Rangers already have 2 1sts in this draft, so adding another doesn't move the needle at all.

 

[Jerzey Devil]

You keep talking about a history that of signing big name players that haven’t worked out, but this is going back 10+ years.

You’re going back to Gomez, Drury, Redden, Holik, etc.

Jagr, Nash, Gaborik and Panarin all had good to great runs in NY. St. Louis was even a big contributor in his twilight years.

You’re running with an outdated narrative.

Probably true. Time just goes by so fast it’s hard to differentiate the timelines sometimes. Hell the Devils were still taking heat for being a trap team well into the 2010’s. I’m still hanging onto the 20-0-2 run the Devils had against the Rangers in the last 90’s too lol.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Probably true. Time just goes by so fast it’s hard to differentiate the timelines sometimes. Hell the Devils were still taking heat for being a trap team well into the 2010’s. I’m still hanging onto the 20-0-2 run the Devils had against the Rangers in the last 90’s too lol.

You know you’re old when you’ve been on this site for 17 years and you’ve seen 2 regime changes within the front office.

But yeah, that narrative about the Rangers isn’t really visible anymore even in the rearview mirror, thankfully.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

He's not getting showcased. He has been playing on line 1 and PP1 because Kreider was injured.

The issue isn't his value, it's what the payment would need to be for the Rangers to trade him. They aren't the same thing. The return needs to be good enough that the Rangers are willing to risk him breaking out on another team. A late 1st isn't that. The Rangers already have 2 1sts in this draft, so adding another doesn't move the needle at all.

Well, he's getting minutes and failing in them once again. This movie plays out with high picks all the time. Sometimes, not often, they click very late, but Lafreniere doesn't look like his game has improved much with time in the league. If you don't think his value is diminishing rapidly, you're not being honest.

The return will close in Yakupov very soon. By his 4th year, Nail wasn't worth much. I'm sure you're now going to tell everyone how Lafreniere is different.

Amazing that about a year ago, Rangers fans wouldn't even include him in an Eichel deal. I wouldn't trade Peyton Krebs for him today, let Alex Tuch or a 16th overall. Buffalo just got lucky because Sabres probably would have taken Lafreniere if available.

Is Lafreniere even a top pick 15 pick in a 2020 redraft? I would take Schneider over him. Rangers did very well there. I'd love to have that kid, strong RDs are hard to find.

 

[GAGLine]

Well, he's getting minutes and failing in them once again. This movie plays out with high picks all the time. Sometimes, not often, they click very late, but Lafreniere doesn't look like his game has improved much with time in the league. If you don't think his value is diminishing rapidly, you're not being honest.

The problem you're having is you think we give a shit about getting a late 1st vs a 2nd or 3rd.

 

[ViD]

Laf’s worth ?

A couple mid picks would be a fair offer. A first would be generous.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

The problem you're having is you think we give a shit about getting a late 1st vs a 2nd or 3rd.

Yeah, no one wants to recoup value for something. His days in NYC are numbered. I will be happy to revisit this soon.

 

[Dijock94]

I’m not saying the Devils are the best. Just to clear that up. But adding Horvat isn’t making the Rags leap frog Carolina or Boston.

Agreed. Especially Boston they’re out of their minds right now. Rangers could get McDavid and they still probably wouldn’t win a 7 game series against the bruins.

 

[Kupo]

Laf’s worth ?

A couple mid picks would be a fair offer. A first would be generous.

Lias Andersson, who didn't have a fraction of the pedigree as Laf, was moved for a late 2nd. The same Lias who scored a total of 3 goals during the 2017, 2018 and 2019 seasons. 66 games.

This is the same Lias Andersson who requested a trade from NY, then just left the team and went back to Sweden due to mental illness.

Laff is a 21 year old kid coming off a season where he put up 19 ES Goals. He's worth a hell of a lot more than a couple of mid round picks.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

I wouldn’t say they leap frog those teams with Horvat, but I do think it puts them in the realistic conversation. With that said, I wouldn’t move Laf for a rental. What does the contract season have to do with it? He’d be strictly a rental, and you’d imagine he’d be just as motivated in NY as he is in Van trying to get paid.

Rangers could re-sign him. They could make it work a few different ways.

 

[Donuts]

oel + hoglander

 

[Kupo]

Rangers could re-sign him. They could make it work a few different ways.

They can’t without moving one of Panarin, Zibanejad, Trouba or Kreider, all of which have NMC’s.

 

[EverTheCynic]

oel + hoglander

That is negative value. You can argue what Laf is worth, but he's worth something.

That package we would have to pay to move.

 

[GAGLine]

Rangers could re-sign him. They could make it work a few different ways.

Really? How? And make sure you show your work:

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[TGWL]

Yeah, no one wants to recoup value for something. His days in NYC are numbered. I will be happy to revisit this soon.

It's not about recouping value for what might end nothing more than a 3rd liner. Our organization did a decent job grabbing picks and prospects. (Whether any of them pan out is a different story) There's not a lot of room right now and we have 2 1st round draft picks coming. It's always nice to have more 1st round picks but it's more of a luxury at this point. "If you wait too long the value is going to drop even more." That may be true but we're in a position where unless that player is entering the line-up immediately and making a difference on a very cheap contract, we can wait it out even if the final return is underwhelming for a #1overall.

It doesn't make much sense trading a cheap contract away for a pending UFA. I rather trade away a 1st round pick, and there's probably a reason why teams would prefer Laf than the 1st round, or Laf as the biggest piece in the package, and i'd bet it's the same reasons why Rangers are trying to be patience and find while he's in the organization.

There's a lot of us who crap all over him daily, and even more during game threads. We know he's playing with 0 confidence right now and doing about everything you can do to look out of place. We don't expect next game day to come and for Laf to score a hat trick, looking like a beast all game. (potentially trying reverse jinx here).

 

[AlainVigneaultsGum]

Riley Stillman straight up lol kthxbye

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

It's not about recouping value for what might end nothing more than a 3rd liner. Our organization did a decent job grabbing picks and prospects. (Whether any of them pan out is a different story) There's not a lot of room right now and we have 2 1st round draft picks coming. It's always nice to have more 1st round picks but it's more of a luxury at this point. "If you wait too long the value is going to drop even more." That may be true but we're in a position where unless that player is entering the line-up immediately and making a difference on a very cheap contract, we can wait it out even if the final return is underwhelming for a #1overall.

It doesn't make much sense trading a cheap contract away for a pending UFA. I rather trade away a 1st round pick, and there's probably a reason why teams would prefer Laf than the 1st round, or Laf as the biggest piece in the package, and i'd bet it's the same reasons why Rangers are trying to be patience and find while he's in the organization.

There's a lot of us who crap all over him daily, and even more during game threads. We know he's playing with 0 confidence right now and doing about everything you can do to look out of place. We don't expect next game day to come and for Laf to score a hat trick, looking like a beast all game. (potentially trying reverse jinx here).

The problem for Rangers fans (and management, not to mention most teams), is a fixation on where a guy was picked. The pedigree means less after a couple of years in the league, but teams cling on to it. With d-man, the adjustment to the NHL and pro hockey takes longer. We've seen that with Victor Hedman.

Next year is basically a make-or-break year for the valuation of Lafreniere. He's dropped significantly in value from his entry-level contract, and more mediocre year as a 3rd of 4th liner hockey players moves him into the value of a second-rounder or maybe a third.

Rangers assembled a great roster. Not sure they are a top 5 team but close. The tough part is if Lafreniere and Kakko were elite players (not an unreasonable expectation) they would be a scary scary team and not just very good. They were consensus picks, so no one to blame just some bad luck.

The question for the Rangers is how much they want to go for it now with some great top end guys who are mostly pushing or over 30 with the exception of Fox. Guys like Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox don't just full from the sky. They are core starts and you hate to waste their best years.

If I was the Rangers, I would be looking for higher-end guys with maybe an extra year or two of contract. The team has a hell of a 2-4 year window for a cup as long as goaltending is elite.

 

[smoneil]

The problem for Rangers fans (and management, not to mention most teams), is a fixation on where a guy was picked. The pedigree means less after a couple of years in the league, but teams cling on to it. With d-man, the adjustment to the NHL and pro hockey takes longer. We've seen that with Victor Hedman.

Next year is basically a make-or-break year for the valuation of Lafreniere. He's dropped significantly in value from his entry-level contract, and more mediocre year as a 3rd of 4th liner hockey players moves him into the value of a second-rounder or maybe a third.

Rangers assembled a great roster. Not sure they are a top 5 team but close. The tough part is if Lafreniere and Kakko were elite players (not an unreasonable expectation) they would be a scary scary team and not just very good. They were consensus picks, so no one to blame just some bad luck.

The question for the Rangers is how much they want to go for it now with some great top end guys who are mostly pushing or over 30 with the exception of Fox. Guys like Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox don't just full from the sky. They are core starts and you hate to waste their best years.

If I was the Rangers, I would be looking for higher-end guys with maybe an extra year or two of contract. The team has a hell of a 2-4 year window for a cup as long as goaltending is elite.

No, the problem is that Buffalo fans think Rangers fans should approach the situation the way they (ie: you) would. There's a reason that doesn't happen.

Buffalo has enjoyed eleven top 5 draft picks in the last 50 years. You get one on average every 5 years.
The Rangers? Three top 5 draft picks, and we had to trade up for one of them (and lotto'ed up the other two times. The Rangers have literally never finished in the bottom 5 of the NHL standings since the expansion from the Original 6 when every team but the Cup winner was in the "bottom 5").

Buffalo has drafted first overall FOUR times, including twice in the last five years.
The Rangers? They have drafted first overall exactly ONCE since the expansion from the O6.

So don't pontificate at Rangers fans as if we're being foolish for being patient. We aren't Sabres fans. We can't just deal away a first overall for a rental and expect to get another one in a few years. We don't get a top 5 draft pick every 5 years. So on the extremely rare occasion that we finally got one, you will have to forgive us for not giving up on him at the ripe old age of 21 just because you think that's what the Rangers should do.

Whether Laf meets his draft expectations or flames out altogether, he'll be doing it in a Rangers' jersey. Because unlike the Sabres, we don't expect to see another 1st overall pick in NYC during our lifetimes.

 

[Seventy7]

Anyone that sees Horvat as a rental doesn’t understand who Horvat is. I expect he’ll re-sign with whom ever acquires him. Lots of time to create cap space before 23/24, as well as likely unloading a contract back to Van in the deal.
Horvat is a very solid player. Not a selke candidate, but he’s not a bad player defensively. He gets better at something every single offseason. Last year he improved his snap shot. This year deflections. My only knock is he’s not a great distributor of the puck, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him develop that skill either. He’s also a clutch post season performer and will score a tonne for whomever pays the price imo. Not sure who that’ll be, but someone will step up and imo it’ll be worthwhile for that franchise. Hate to see him go myself.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Man we don’t want Laffeniere

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

No, the problem is that Buffalo fans think Rangers fans should approach the situation the way they (ie: you) would. There's a reason that doesn't happen.

Buffalo has enjoyed eleven top 5 draft picks in the last 50 years. You get one on average every 5 years.
The Rangers? Three top 5 draft picks, and we had to trade up for one of them (and lotto'ed up the other two times. The Rangers have literally never finished in the bottom 5 of the NHL standings since the expansion from the Original 6 when every team but the Cup winner was in the "bottom 5").

Buffalo has drafted first overall FOUR times, including twice in the last five years.
The Rangers? They have drafted first overall exactly ONCE since the expansion from the O6.

So don't pontificate at Rangers fans as if we're being foolish for being patient. We aren't Sabres fans. We can't just deal away a first overall for a rental and expect to get another one in a few years. We don't get a top 5 draft pick every 5 years. So on the extremely rare occasion that we finally got one, you will have to forgive us for not giving up on him at the ripe old age of 21 just because you think that's what the Rangers should do.

Whether Laf meets his draft expectations or flames out altogether, he'll be doing it in a Rangers' jersey. Because unlike the Sabres, we don't expect to see another 1st overall pick in NYC during our lifetimes.

All completely irrelevant. A losing lottery ticket is exactly that, a losing lottery ticket. If the guy next to you has ten tickets and won once, it doesn't increase the value of your ticket. I wouldn't call him a losing ticket, but he's like a company you got early access to in the market that just keeps going down in value. Expectations were high and then just dropped. You can sell the stock and get some money or maybe watch it drop to zero, By all means, hold. But that's mostly an irrational response. His value today is not the same as three years ago. If you think the league is undervaluing him, hold him. If you can get more than your internal value, you trade him.

 

[bernmeister]

All completely irrelevant. A losing lottery ticket is exactly that, a losing lottery ticket. If the guy next to you has ten tickets and won once, it doesn't increase the value of your ticket. I wouldn't call him a losing ticket, but he's like a company you got early access to in the market that just keeps going down in value. Expectations were high and then just dropped. You can sell the stock and get some money or maybe watch it drop to zero, By all means, hold. But that's mostly an irrational response. His value today is not the same as three years ago. If you think the league is undervaluing him, hold him. If you can get more than your internal value, you trade him.

But the upside to keeping him is worth more than you offer b'c there is legit upside.
Potential value, in addition to actual value, is a real thing.
Would be dif if he never improved his skating to at least par, and disappointing it took him this long to get there, but he IS there.
Also would be dif if he did not click w/anybody. But kid line is proof to contrary.

So no, unless too good to refuse, he stays.
We should be creative including LaF to create cap, but that does not = give him away.

 

[GAGLine]

Anyone that sees Horvat as a rental doesn’t understand who Horvat is.

Anyone who sees Horvat as more than a rental for the Rangers doesn't understand the Rangers' cap situation.