Post-Game Talk: Utterly Rittich-ulous Leafs Lose 6-3

[Bluelines]

In the Columbus series, there was no depth scoring from the team. So if you shut down the 1st line, there is nothing else to go with. It's the same situation that happens when Muzzin and Holl stop McDavid. What other depth is going to step up? In a 5 game series, you had 2 goals total from Mikheyev, Spezza, Engvall, Robertson, Kapanen, Kerfoot and Hyman. And the goals came from Robertson in his 2nd career game and Zach Hyman. So you've got nothing else from your bottom 6. It's easy to coach when someone other than the top line produces. Maybe you can move Matthews to centre a 4th line shift every so often, but what other strategies can you use?

Spread Marner, Matthews, Tavares on different lines. Or make the lines less predictable.

One thing Gretzky use to do when the other team would throw a blanket on him, he would go and shadow a different player, so say player A on the Flames is tasked to check Gretzky, Gretzky would then check Player B on the same line so in effect A and B were essentially checking Gretzky, which then opened up the ice to make it 4 players (Oilers) vs 3 players (Flames).

 

[TheDoldrums]

Another interesting question is why the opposing teams goalies have such high save percentages when playing us. Far higher than their season averages.

They don't. We have the 8th best shooting percentage in the league.

 

[Bomber0104]

From this past years free agent pool, who would you have given the money to?

I'm sure there were plenty of options available over the years that didn't come to fruition due to cap constraints both in free agency and trade.

This off-season though? How about Cam Talbot?

 

[showtime8]

Spread Marner, Matthews, Tavares on different lines. Or make the lines less predictable.

One thing Gretzky use to do when the other team would throw a blanket on him, he would go and shadow a different player, so say player A on the Flames is tasked to check Gretzky, Gretzky would then check Player B on the same line so in effect A and B were essentially checking Gretzky, which then opened up the ice to make it 4 players (Oilers) vs 3 players (Flames).

So you want to make sure that your top 6 guys play throughout the top 9?


The difference with those Edmonton teams is if Wayne wasn't scoring, he also had Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey, Mark Messier and Jari Kurri that could actually score. I get what you're trying to say about spreading the wealth, but it's too hard to compare when systems are a lot different than they were 25 years ago.

 

[Bluelines]

Yup.

Too many people take way, way too much comfort in the Leafs charting high in these laughably amateur blog stats we see.

Winning the actual hockey game is secondary to that.

It's kind of sad.

You are not wrong, actually sadly, you're right.

It will be comforting when we make the SCF and we get beat out by LV but we out chanced them and out performed in all these advance stats. We can say hey yes they won the SC but we won the advance stats.

 

[Bluelines]

Another interesting question is why the opposing teams goalies have such high save percentages when playing us. Far higher than their season averages. Over this 5 game losing skid the goalies we faced have had an almost .940 save percentage.

That IS a great question!

 

[Throw More Waffles]

They don't. We have the 8th best shooting percentage in the league.

I meant during our recent slump. Past 5 games opposing goalies have a near .940 save percentage while playing us. Goalies that average around .900 save percentages otherwise (Hellebuyck excepted). Yet these losses are being blamed on our goaltending. Not our lack of finish.

 

[bossram]

If there was an extra $2 million available, it could be spent on getting a player that's way better than Wayne Simmonds.

It's pay to play in the NHL.

You don't get good depth players for $1.5 million or less 9 times out of 10.

Have you seen the Florida Panthers? Half their roster is made of other teams' castoffs. There is a ton of NHL-calibre talent out there every offseason and on waivers, floating around for cheap. You just need someone to identify the correct players.

You need to pay for top talent. There's no way to get it other than the draft, and the only way to keep them is to pay them. Shipping out a Nylander just to sign Tanner Pearson + Scott Laughton at their new cap hits would be asinine.

You keep a Nylander and find someone like Verhaege, or Duclair, or Marchment.

 

[Bluelines]

So you want to make sure that your top 6 guys play throughout the top 9?


The difference with those Edmonton teams is if Wayne wasn't scoring, he also had Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey, Mark Messier and Jari Kurri that could actually score. I get what you're trying to say about spreading the wealth, but it's too hard to compare when systems are a lot different than they were 25 years ago.

Yep spread it out and ride the hot hand. CBJ was not skilled enough to check a 3 line attack, virtually any team can check a one line attack. In some aspects its much easier to play today, less holding, less, interference, less rough stuff. Goalies look like a small house today, would be the biggest difference IMO

 

[Bomber0104]

Have you seen the Florida Panthers? Half their roster is made of other teams' castoffs. There is a ton of NHL-calibre talent out there every offseason and on waivers, floating around for cheap. You just need someone to identify the correct players.

You need to pay for top talent. There's no way to get it other than the draft, and the only way to keep them is to pay them. Shipping out a Nylander just to sign Tanner Pearson + Scott Laughton at their new cap hits would be asinine.

You keep a Nylander and find someone like Verhaege, or Duclair, or Marchment.

Generally speaking, though.

Florida is definitely a special case where you can save some coin on wingers by having them ride shotgun with Barkov and the end result won't be all that different.

 

[m1ker]

Swapping Nylander and Marner would be my first instinct. Taking marner off PP1 would be my second. It doesn't have to stay this way forever, we just need a different look.

 

[Stephen]

Another interesting question is why the opposing teams goalies have such high save percentages when playing us. Far higher than their season averages. Over this 5 game losing skid the goalies we faced have had an almost .940 save percentage.

I think you can attribute some of it to high volume shooting, which may inflate a lot of analytical numbers bringing up the “deserve to win meter”. Aside from the Hellebuyck performance a few weeks back when he stood on his head and some good bounces for Holtby on Sunday, it really doesn’t feel like Toronto is getting stoned by prime Hasek every night. It’s not what it looks like in game.

Last night Marner generated 5 shots on net and they were barely opportunities.

 

[ToneDog]

If there was an extra $2 million available, it could be spent on getting a player that's way better than Wayne Simmonds.

It's pay to play in the NHL.

You don't get good depth players for $1.5 million or less 9 times out of 10.

But Dubas signed Joe Fricken Thorton for less than $1m !! Next year he can add Marleau for $750k. I am sure there will be lots of Veseys and Boyds available for $850K give or take a dollar. Life is good. Trust in Kyle.

 

[Bloomberg]

Generally speaking, though.

Florida is definitely a special case where you can save some coin on wingers by having them ride shotgun with Barkov and the end result won't be all that different.

It's amazing how much Barkov elevates his linemates. Mathews needs to do the same. It'll free up Hyman and Marner to go to other lines.

 

[Mugzy97]

We lost this one based on goaltending alone. Haven't actually felt that way for a long time. Any other team in this league playing their third string would have the same issues. Some pretty shitty goals going in there. Also, what kind of bounce was that off the side of the net?

 

[TheDoldrums]

I think you can attribute some of it to high volume shooting, which may inflate a lot of analytical numbers bringing up the “deserve to win meter”. Aside from the Hellebuyck performance a few weeks back when he stood on his head and some good bounces for Holtby on Sunday, it really doesn’t feel like Toronto is getting stoned by prime Hasek every night. It’s not what it looks like in game.

Last night Marner generated 5 shots on net and they were barely opportunities.

 

[All Mod Cons]

The reason that this team will win a round will be because of those top 4 players.

Why do we get so caught up in how much players make? Like would it make people feel better if we took 2 million away from Tavares and gave it to Wayne Simmonds?

If they don't win a round, then you can worry about it then. The difference between this year and last year is, you're not asking Cody Ceci to play shutdown minutes and looking to regain Barrie's confidence back after the dismal start to that year. You've got a very reliable TJ Brodie and a 2nd pair that can shutdown another top line with Holl and Muzzin.

I think the point is, is that BECAUSE Tavares et al are making 11 million, we end up with Simmonds, Thornton, Spezza, Engvall, Robertson on the roster.

There's very little money to pay anyone else. It also makes trading hard. You either have to unload an 11 mil player, or hope someone fancies your mid to late 30s role players. There aren't many players on our roster in that 'sweet zone' cap wise to make trades.

This then leads to draft picks and/or prospects being moved every deadline. It's a bit of a viscous circle.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I think you can attribute some of it to high volume shooting, which may inflate a lot of analytical numbers bringing up the “deserve to win meter”. Aside from the Hellebuyck performance a few weeks back when he stood on his head and some good bounces for Holtby on Sunday, it really doesn’t feel like Toronto is getting stoned by prime Hasek every night. It’s not what it looks like in game.

Last night Marner generated 5 shots on net and they were barely opportunities.

The Leafs are #1 in high danger shots, #2 in medium danger shots, and #31 in low danger shots. If anything, their shooting locations should inflate their shooting percentage

 

[Gabriel426]

Spread Marner, Matthews, Tavares on different lines. Or make the lines less predictable.

One thing Gretzky use to do when the other team would throw a blanket on him, he would go and shadow a different player, so say player A on the Flames is tasked to check Gretzky, Gretzky would then check Player B on the same line so in effect A and B were essentially checking Gretzky, which then opened up the ice to make it 4 players (Oilers) vs 3 players (Flames).

Do not think the coaching staff and the players are smart enough to pull it off, lol

 

[Gabriel426]

The Leafs are #1 in high danger shots, #2 in medium danger shots, and #31 in low danger shots. If anything, their shooting locations should inflate their shooting percentage

Maybe they need to take more shots from low danger area bc they couldn’t score in high and med danger area

 

[AvroArrow]

We have shit goaltending and most of our losses come in games where we outplay the opponent but just have shit goaltending. I'm most disappointed in Dubas for not addressing it this year, I feel like it's a wasted year for this core with these goalies. I hope campbell can go back to his old form, if not we're in deep shit. Just need average goaltending, not even asking for much lol. Be average and this team has a shot, .839SVP over 5 games isn't gonna cut it.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Maybe they need to take more shots from low danger area bc they couldn’t score in high and med danger area

passing up shots from the slot in order to shoot from low danger areas sounds like a great way to kill the offense even more

 

[All Mod Cons]

Have you seen the Florida Panthers? Half their roster is made of other teams' castoffs. There is a ton of NHL-calibre talent out there every offseason and on waivers, floating around for cheap. You just need someone to identify the correct players.

You need to pay for top talent. There's no way to get it other than the draft, and the only way to keep them is to pay them. Shipping out a Nylander just to sign Tanner Pearson + Scott Laughton at their new cap hits would be asinine.

You keep a Nylander and find someone like Verhaege, or Duclair, or Marchment.

It would be nice if Dubas could find a Marchment.

 

[Stephen]

The Leafs are #1 in high danger shots, #2 in medium danger shots, and #31 in low danger shots. If anything, their shooting locations should inflate their shooting percentage

Those statistics help describe the trends but I think we can debate the merits of “expected goals” forever - the hot goalie thesis is nice and all but when it happens every game there are probably some holes in the unified theory of everything.

Tying it back to the eye test, I would say a lot of their looks have been getting boxed out, inability to move to the puck quick enough to open shooting lanes, generally faced with a lot of collapsing bodies when they get those slot chances.

 

[Stephen]

It would be nice if Dubas could find a Marchment.

Still chuckling at the thesis that at least we got an NHL body in Denis Malgin.