USA overtaking Canada

[Kranix]

Quebec is the mecca of hockey?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

It's a numbers game. Hockey is way more popular in Canada, but the US is far more populated. It'll happen eventually.

Also, I dunno WTF happened, but Canada's goalie development over the last decade has been rancid and their defense is also starting to fall off. Forwards though... Forwards they're absolutely dominant.

 

[Fatass]

Quebec is the mecca of hockey?

Montreal is the Mecca of hockey.

 

[Kranix]

Montreal is the Mecca of hockey.

how so?

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

US hasn’t really produced many elite talents the last 5 years. Canada has Bedard, Celebrini, McKenna, DuPont, Maddox Shultz. While Quebec has stopped, Western Canada seems to be producing a young star every year.

In theory the US should catch up but it doesn’t seem to be happening yet.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

The majority of children in Canada don't play hockey , I feel like people outsie of Canada think we are born with hockey skates on our feet haha

We will still have the best players because there's always freak kids/parents like McDavid and Crosby who will play hockey and live through canadian hockey culture as soon as they can walk

 

[Fatass]

how so?

Cups + history + love of the game. No other city has that combination.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

It's a numbers game. Hockey is way more popular in Canada, but the US is far more populated. It'll happen eventually.

Also, I dunno WTF happened, but Canada's goalie development over the last decade has been rancid and their defense is also starting to fall off. Forwards though... Forwards they're absolutely dominant.

I mean we have a defense prospect likely going 1OA next month and then Dupont being a generational defensive prospect in the wings as well. A lot of this stuff is just cyclical. Canada went through like a 4-5 year period where the draft was either light on talent or had some players bust that weren't expected too.

 

[GuyCANCZE]

Messier and Subban say "no".

7:07 mark of the video:

 

[le premiere etoile]

It's obviously conceivable given that they have caught up to a great extent since the 1970s and 1980s.

Will that continue, or will hockey interest in the US reach a saturation point? Will Canada continue to face competition from other sports as the cost of playing hockey rises?

Ultimately though, I don't know what "overtaking Canada" looks like:

1. Is it winning a single best-on-best tournament?

2. Is it winning a number of best-on-best tournaments in a row?

3. Is it winning both the Juniors (as a near best on best) and senior Olympics/World Cup best on best?

4. Is it sweeping the major NHL awards (or winning the vast majority) for a number of years?

5. Is it overtaking Canada as the top producer of NHL talent by percentage of active players?

6. Is it winning all the major tournaments (WHC, World Cup, OIympics, World Juniors, U18 etc.)?

7. Some combination of the above?

Other teams have won big tournaments (Czechs in 1998, Swedes in 2006) but it didn't lead to the conclusion that they had overtaken Canada as the #1 hockey country.

I think the closest argument is probably the Czechs in the late 90s and early 2000s when they won numerous international tournaments simultaneously.

Excellent post, it describes the situation perfectly.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Hockey is pretty plateau’d in USA at moment. I wouldn’t expect continued gains in nhl percentages for the group of incoming players over the next span of years that are foreseeable. USA will likely need a “third order breakthrough” of hockey development to surpass the Canada nhl percentage. Gap is considerably narrower than historically.

If a best on best is run regularly (every year like wjc or even just every other year) I’d expect USA to win some of the time, winning a single one wouldn’t inherently mean anything deeper than just winning that event. Obviously the iihf WC is run every year but USA doesn’t do too well there (and if you took them extremely literally you’d say Canadians aren’t that dominant in international hockey either). Hopefully we get more regular best on best rather than one competition a decade which doesn’t really tell you anything by itself.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I live in Van. Hughes is great. But he’s not at the same level as Makar. The USA never has matched Canada at producing these level greatest players. Lots of excellent guys, like Quinn Hughes, but not the top dogs. IMO several Euro countries produce more top dogs than the USA.

Errrrr dunno about this. RUS is still up there but SWE has taken quite the tumble. FIN has done very well in the last decade, to their credit.

 

[Summer Rose]

In the past when this topic has come up, I've said the same thing I'm about to.

It's one thing to "catch up" to an established country in an international sport. To catch up, you become good enough to compete with them at their level, more or less. One could argue that the United States has already done that in relation to Canada.

It's another thing entirely to "overtake" them. In the context of international hockey, that would require Canada to take a step back, making way for the United States (or another country) to overtake them. That's an independent variable if you ask me, and nothing the USA can do themselves will make it happen. I don't see that happening any time soon.

 

[patnyrnyg]

In the past when this topic has come up, I've said the same thing I'm about to.

It's one thing to "catch up" to an established country in an international sport. To catch up, you become good enough to compete with them at their level, more or less. One could argue that the United States has already done that in relation to Canada.

It's another thing entirely to "overtake" them. In the context of international hockey, that would require Canada to take a step back, making way for the United States (or another country) to overtake them. That's an independent variable if you ask me, and nothing the USA can do themselves will make it happen. I don't see that happening any time soon.

Agree with this. We can say the US has overtaken Russia. In the 80s, even when the US could send their best to the Canada Cup they were still not as good as the Soviets. We can say the US has overtaken Canada when the US losing to Canada is seen as a big upset. Not Miracle on Ice level upset, but more like Czechs over Canada '98 level upset. Everyone knew the Czechs were good and COULD win the game. However, most expected the Canadians to take it and it was a shock when they lost. When the US beats Canada consistently enough that it was a formality, then we can say they have been overtaken.

 

[Lumber]

Hockey has already moved south of Canada. The NHL is an American league. I don't believe that hockey enjoys the same cultural significance in Canada as it once did. It's very expensive and the good old outdoor rink is a vanishing species. Add to that the problem of dual citizen hockey players. Hockey's growth in many areas of the USA has be aided by Canadian involvement, as historically players have played at all levels of the game, coached and help organize kids leagues. They have also helped the establishment and direction of elite hockey programs for young players.

The NHL has 32 teams, 25 of those are American, the AHL, 32 as well, with 26 American. I won't even go into the other leagues scattered about the USA, nor will I include the NCAA. These teams are generally stocked by the NHL draft which arbitrarily brings players from Canada as well as other parts of the world to ply their trade in the USA. We are seeing an uptick in both the number and calibre of dual citizen hockey players playing for the USA. It isn't surprising that the USA will become a world leader in hockey.

As an aside from an old dinosaur the NHL for the time being is last surviving and legitimate professional sports league in North America. I would really hate to see it follow the examples of MLB, the NFL and the NBA.

 

[Fatass]

The USA has a long way to go to surpass Canada for hockey dominance. Imo the USA is still behind a coupe European countries.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Errrrr dunno about this. RUS is still up there but SWE has taken quite the tumble. FIN has done very well in the last decade, to their credit.

How so? Sweden has produced way better dmans than Finland and Russia last decade. Why do only forwards count? And why are you not bringing up the Czechs?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

How so? We won silver in 2014 Olympics, 3rd place in World cup 2016 and 3rd place in 4 Nations . Sweden has done better than Finland and Russia on last 3 best on best. And Sweden won gold in world Championship 2017 and 2018. What has Russia done to be put above Sweden?

Poster was talking about individual talents making it to the NHL not international competition , not that I agree with him

 

[Eye of Ra]

Poster was talking about individual talents making it to the NHL not international competition , not that I agree with him

Sorry i misread.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Hockey is expensive regardless of what country your in

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Yeah, it can happen but USA has to win a best-on-best tournament first. They had a chance to do it but couldn't in 4 nations.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Taking in consideration the expensive prices for kids to play hockey today, how hockey is losing tradition in Quebec (The Meca of Hockey), and how hockey is growing in the United States, do you think that in the next 20 years, the USA national team will became the biggest potence in the international hockey world?

No, first they need to win some men’s international tournaments with some regularity , to get to on par.
Also hockey is expensive in the US as well.

 

[Peasy]

They are still desperately lacking the absolute peak type of generational players. Your McDavids, Crosbys, Ovies etc. They have some guys that are close to that in Matthews, Quinn Hughes has been exceptional the past 2 seasons, but they still havent had those "best" players in the league for long periods of time.

 

[WarriorofTime]

In the past when this topic has come up, I've said the same thing I'm about to.

It's one thing to "catch up" to an established country in an international sport. To catch up, you become good enough to compete with them at their level, more or less. One could argue that the United States has already done that in relation to Canada.

It's another thing entirely to "overtake" them. In the context of international hockey, that would require Canada to take a step back, making way for the United States (or another country) to overtake them. That's an independent variable if you ask me, and nothing the USA can do themselves will make it happen. I don't see that happening any time soon.

It's basically like in Basketball. Other countries have "caught up" and can certainly give USA a run for its money, cumulative International NBA now better than USA NBA for now and foreseeable future, but no country is close to actually "overtaking" USA in basketball [not just a one off winning a certain Olympics or whatever] and in all likelihood never will.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Errrrr dunno about this. RUS is still up there but SWE has taken quite the tumble. FIN has done very well in the last decade, to their credit.

I just looked up u25 in NHL

Sweden has Sandin, Raymond, Edvinsson, Eklund, Carlsson as top dogs.

Finland has Kakko, Lundell, Kotkaniemi, Räty as top dogs.

What are you basing on that Finland is producing more top dogs than Sweden?