Post-Game Talk: "Unfortunately, since I bet on the other team, uh, we won't be going for pizza." (Jets 4 Flames 1)

HannuJ

Registered User
Nov 20, 2011
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Toronno
I'm fairly certain that the league took possession of all the Jets 1.0 trademarks when the team moved to Phoenix, and then gave them back to TNSE in 2011. The 90s "Poochy" jerseys will be back someday...it's only Season 10, Jet! ;)
i am always amazed when people say they liked the 90s' jersey. that logo was not good by any metric. and that purpleblue was not great.
 

voyageur

Hockey fanatic
Jul 10, 2011
10,459
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Would it matter if Lowry was 4th line center if he got equal 5 vs 5 time like the other centers... hell no... !!!

It would certainly matter to the opposition...

Praying...

I think we'd be better off giving Stastny the 4th line role. You can matchup Lowry against anyone. Stastny-Lewis would be a vet line with real hard nosed experienced vets. Put Harkins on the wing, and he's just got to play a simple straight line speed game.

One of my favourite plays last night was Stastny wrecking the Flames player on the backcheck on the broken PP. Basically from the blueline on said you're not going to beat me no matter what. He doesn't have the wheels anymore, but when you have the smarts he does, you can prolong your career.
 

BoneDocUK

Recovering hockey fandoc
Oct 1, 2015
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That was just so freaking casual and seeing Gio wipe out was hilarious.

That line was a monster on the forecheck and Scheif was an absolute magician with his stick. Couldn’t count how many times he got successful stick lifts on guys. Reminded me of how Datsyuk could take the puck away from people.

They were great. And Nik's burst of speed to come back and strip Johnny Hockey in mid-deke was pretty fantastic.

I agree that the 3rd and 4th lines are on the rest of the team seems to push that little bit harder. Makes me wonder if, just maybe, our interest in having a strong, consistent 4th line, is more than just fanspeak. I don't think Thompson should see the ice again barring injury/illness.
 

Jet

Chibby!
Jul 20, 2004
34,229
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In other research topics, if I have an independent variable (like xG) that is meant to directly predict a dependent variable (like G), but only explains about 40% of the variance even with large sample sizes, I would worry about measurement error in the independent variable. That doesn't mean it's not of any value for a broad set of inferences, it just means that I would want to improve the measurement of the independent variable. My first advice to an NHL team from a data perspective would be to ensure that there measurements are accurate and reliable enough. That's a good use of resources. Of course, they also need to employ good analysts and have a hockey staff that is open to discourse about analytics, but nothing undermines the use of research more quickly than bad data.
That's fair. What I would like to see is these metrics fleshed out more, with more consideration to each data point and the variance of the inputs to further inform the stat. Then, I'd like to see a central NHL analytics department that would compile all of these more robust metrics to ensure some consistency.

Of course, the teams themselves could have their own stats team and even their own measures based on their philosophy - but the central stats could really help inform fans and media a bit better.

I consider high danger chances one of these extremely subjective and inaccurate measures. A defenseman with a very hard, accurate shot, shooting through a screen at the blueline is a more dangerous opportunity than, say, a weak wrister from in front of the net 2 feet away from a set goalie when the shooter is James Wright. Then, if you factor things in like how many players are screening, was the puck flat or bobbling when it was shot creating a dip or bounce - right now there's a lot of assumptions in these metrics.

I will say we have more usable data now than ever before, and I hope that it continues to improve.
 

John Agar

The 4th Hanson Bro'
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I think we'd be better off giving Stastny the 4th line role. You can matchup Lowry against anyone. Stastny-Lewis would be a vet line with real hard nosed experienced vets. Put Harkins on the wing, and he's just got to play a simple straight line speed game.

One of my favourite plays last night was Stastny wrecking the Flames player on the backcheck on the broken PP. Basically from the blueline on said you're not going to beat me no matter what. He doesn't have the wheels anymore, but when you have the smarts he does, you can prolong your career.

The highlighted word...

Matchups should decide which of the 4 lines gets played in what sequence... depending on the opposition...

Certainly Lowry as center should have the toughest assignment... And should start as a first line against whatever matchup the Jets are trying to effect...

Matchup always, but still roll 4 lines...
 
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Zhamnov5GoalGame

Former Director of GDT Operations
Jan 14, 2012
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What do you do with PLD?

Stastny. Scheif Ehlers
Connor PLD. Wheeler
Copp. Lowry. Apples
Perreault. Gus. Lewis

That's about as good of a guess as any.
To me it comes down to swapping Copp and Stastny.
Either way seems like a pretty good option.
I hate to take away Copp's opportunity but I can also see why Maurice would want to reunite him with Lowry. The way the two of them and Appleton are playing they may still be able to produce at a high level.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
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That's fair. What I would like to see is these metrics fleshed out more, with more consideration to each data point and the variance of the inputs to further inform the stat. Then, I'd like to see a central NHL analytics department that would compile all of these more robust metrics to ensure some consistency.

Of course, the teams themselves could have their own stats team and even their own measures based on their philosophy - but the central stats could really help inform fans and media a bit better.

I consider high danger chances one of these extremely subjective and inaccurate measures. A defenseman with a very hard, accurate shot, shooting through a screen at the blueline is a more dangerous opportunity than, say, a weak wrister from in front of the net 2 feet away from a set goalie when the shooter is James Wright. Then, if you factor things in like how many players are screening, was the puck flat or bobbling when it was shot creating a dip or bounce - right now there's a lot of assumptions in these metrics.

I will say we have more usable data now than ever before, and I hope that it continues to improve.
I think those are two separate issues - location/type of shot, and the shooting talent. Those distinctions are being made. A big gap from my perspective is that only shot attempts are factored into shot metrics and expected goals. That means that teams / players that tend to look to set up dangerous plays by passing into the slot or across the slot are only credited with an expected goal share if the pass is successful and results in a shot attempt. Of course, most fans and coaches know a dangerous play like that. Teams that will routinely take shots instead of holding on and looking for a more dangerous shot will score fewer goals than expected by the model, whereas teams that are more patient and creative can end up outperforming expected goal models. I would bet that NHL teams log and analyze those events and it factors into their performance assessments and strategies. Now, if the shot-based models were much more predictive of goal production, then I'd say it's a moot point. But the goal:xgoal ratio varies by up to 40% between teams, suggesting there's something more than random error and shooting skill involved.
 

JetsFan815

Replacement Level Poster
Jan 16, 2012
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With all this chatter about who goes out of the top six when PLD arrives in game... who should go on wing... perhaps Stastny...

What you just mentioned above.... role 4 lines with equal shifts until PP & PK's... keep our best centers at center would seem to be the right path...

They had Sawyer on 1290 this morning with him mashing which center should go to wing... ugh...

Depth can really pay off now and into the playoffs...

I hope like hell that's what the Jets do...

Roll 4 lines... equally...

What's this fascination with rolling 4 lines equally? Icetime is a zero-sum game. If the 4th line is getting equal icetime, then it means your top-9 are getting less. Why would we want guys who put up 2+ points/60 to play less in favor of guys that put up 1.5 points/60. Playing Lowry on the 4th line and giving them "equal" time also means giving Trevor Lewis equal time.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
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What's this fascination with rolling 4 lines equally? Icetime is a zero-sum game. If the 4th line is getting equal icetime, then it means your top-9 are getting less. Why would we want guys who put up 2+ points/60 to play less in favor of guys that put up 1.5 points/60. Playing Lowry on the 4th line and giving them "equal" time also means giving Trevor Lewis equal time.
Agree. Talent isn't randomly distributed, so ice-time should be heaped onto the best players. Of course, that only works up to an optimal ceiling, and over-playing good players is unwise. I'm not sure what the best distribution is, and it probably depends on the endurance of different players.
 

BoneDocUK

Recovering hockey fandoc
Oct 1, 2015
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What's this fascination with rolling 4 lines equally? Icetime is a zero-sum game. If the 4th line is getting equal icetime, then it means your top-9 are getting less. Why would we want guys who put up 2+ points/60 to play less in favor of guys that put up 1.5 points/60. Playing Lowry on the 4th line and giving them "equal" time also means giving Trevor Lewis equal time.

My sense is that the "rolling four lines" idea has less to do with making sure that Trevor Lewis enjoys precisely the same 15-minute allocation that Scheifele enjoys than it is a call for something like a more dynamic load management/balance. We've seen games where the nominal top line is playing poorly but still sent over the boards at a ratio if 3 or 4:1 against a 4th line outplaying its opponents. We've also seen plenty of games where clearly exhausted players are still on for costly plays or goals against. If the 3rd or 4th or whoever is killing it, and the 1st is underwater, why not play the hot(ter) hand? Icetime is finite, but its allocation between lines and players is potentially highly flexible.
 

Howard Chuck

Registered User
Jan 24, 2012
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Winnipeg
The highlighted word...

Matchups should decide which of the 4 lines gets played in what sequence... depending on the opposition...

Certainly Lowry as center should have the toughest assignment... And should start as a first line against whatever matchup the Jets are trying to effect...

Matchup always, but still roll 4 lines...
Honestly at that point you could stop numbering them and just play them as required.
 

JetsFan815

Replacement Level Poster
Jan 16, 2012
19,696
25,793
The problem isn't Morrissey its Scheifele not being able to QB from the half wall. He keeps getting pressured and coughs up the puck.

Also Stanley doesn't move the puck quick enough to be a PP dmen imo.

Even not including this season, under other PP configurations Morrissey's numbers on the PP have never been great. The Jets generate fewers shots and lower quality of shots with him on the PP than other d-men:

t7BmQEq.png


Stanley has a big booming shot, I would like to see what he can do, if not put Pionk up there. If that unit is going to get a higher usage it should have our current best PP pointman, which is Pionk (or do something crazy like running a 5 forward unit).
 
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Weezeric

Registered User
Jan 27, 2015
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What's this fascination with rolling 4 lines equally? Icetime is a zero-sum game. If the 4th line is getting equal icetime, then it means your top-9 are getting less. Why would we want guys who put up 2+ points/60 to play less in favor of guys that put up 1.5 points/60. Playing Lowry on the 4th line and giving them "equal" time also means giving Trevor Lewis equal time.

Couldn’t agree more with this reasoning. The only concern with ice time, in my view, is too much for your top players. There’s no reason to play Scheifele 26+ mins. Ever. If you have 9 players capable of excelling with ~20 mins, then play them and dominate the 4th lines of teams with lesser forward groups.
 
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