Post-Game Talk: Unbeatable....on the road

[Positive]

I watch these numbers night after night and feel like we're getting jobbed. They gave Laine 2 HD Corsi and no one else got one. I can think of at least a few others off the top of my head. Scheifele one timer just wide was 10' out ehlers spinarama wrist shot, hell even his goal was near slot. Wheeler redirect. Is it just me?

I agree with you there, Scheifele's missed one-timer and the two redirects could have been goals easily.

 

[kanadalainen]

In protest, I will continue to watch the Jets games while drinking alcohol and eating potato chips until they fire him.

<whispers>

 

[Dayofthedogs]

thanks for correcting me. I didn’t notice and found it strange considering he was having a good game.

I would have thought it was strange too had he not been out. He was flying. They got out on a change on the fly. Think most of the pairs only had about 30 secs of ice time.

 

[Gm0ney]

If Laviolette goes, Maurice is the senior coach in the division. Fact is Poile has made some curious moves. Has not drafted as well as Chevy. The talent margin is thinner. And something isn't jiving.

That's kind of crazy, but Tennesee has a different flavour.

Maurice is already senior coach in the division. The Jets hired him in January 2014, Laviolette was hired in May 2014. Only Jon Cooper in Tampa Bay has tenure on Maurice.

 

[jepjepjoo]

They need to start incorporating passing data into it. Jets are looking to generate off of quick cross crease passes which forces the goalie to move. Id wager some of those medium chances would have been high dangerous ones if that element was incorporated.

There's no way to collect passing data other than by hand at this time... NHL needs to take advantage of the new smart puck technology and player tracking.

 

[Gm0ney]

Th

Maurice's bad coaching was the reason he had bad goalies in Carolina and Toronto, remember.

TOR 2007-08 xGA/60: 2.21 - 7th worst in the NHL (fired at end of regular season)
CAR 2009-10 xGA/60: 2.58 - worst in the NHL
CAR 2010-11 xGA/60: 2.66 - worst in the NHL
CAR 2011-12 xGA/60: 2.21 - 13th worst in the NHL (fired after 25 games)
WPG 2019-20 xGA/60: 2.41 - 5th worst in the NHL

Maybe if he'd had Hellebuyck in Toronto and Carolina...?

 

[Jimmyjets]

Against Nashville:

High danger chances for: 2
High danger chances against: 6

Season

High danger chances for: 134
High danger chances against: 205

They are ranked 31st in the league with HDCF% 39.53

I watched the game and the obvious question here is who is tracking the "High Danger chances"? We scored 2 goals off of shots that I would consider a "high danger chance". Copp and Lowry had numerous 2 on 1s. There were some cross seam one-timers that I would also consider high danger chances. It's so subjective that it's essentially worthless especially when you see how many "High danger chances" got recorded compared to how many actually occurred. I think High Danger chances have much more value than Corsi or a stat like that but frankly we had more than 2 last game and the fact more than 2 weren't registered shows how flawed the stat keeper is more than it's an indication of the Jets play.

 

[Gm0ney]

I watched the game and the obvious question here is who is tracking the "High Danger chances"? We scored 2 goals off of shots that I would consider a "high danger chance". Copp and Lowry had numerous 2 on 1s. There were some cross seam one-timers that I would also consider high danger chances. It's so subjective that it's essentially worthless especially when you see how many "High danger chances" got recorded compared to how many actually occurred. I think High Danger chances have much more value than Corsi or a stat like that but frankly we had more than 2 last game and the fact more than 2 weren't registered shows how flawed the stat keeper is more than it's an indication of the Jets play.

It's based on shot attempt location I believe - so if they didn't get a shot off, there's nothing counted.

The heatmap indicates there wasn't a lot of action in the danger zone for the Jets in Nashville's zone:

 

[GNP]

Yeah, it's like the Jets perform better when the expectation is low :::raising my hand::::: I didn't think we'd go far with this AHL defense. The attitude seems to be: "hockey talking heads think we suck because of our depleted D, we'll show 'em! Suck it, haterz!"

_______________________________________________

Much has been said about our so called AHL defence -- but is it really ? We have Morrissey, Kuikov and Pionk -- just for starters, and they have good NHL experience. Beaulieu is a #1 draft pick that's fitting in quite nicely, so to me our defence is playing quite well. Poolman is also holding his own quite nicely.

We are basically holding off a lot of good teams to just 1 or 2 goals, so our defence isn't that bad --they are doing quite well. If Buff ever comes back, I think our Blue line will look very good --especially if Poolman and Beaulieu keep getting better.

 

[Jimmyjets]

It's based on shot attempt location I believe - so if they didn't get a shot off, there's nothing counted.

The heatmap indicates there wasn't a lot of action in the danger zone for the Jets in Nashville's zone:

View attachment 280159

Ok, so the 2 on 1 cross seam pass that gets deflected wide of the net doesn't count in that stat but is absolutely a very dangerous play if executed. My statement stands. It doesn't mean anything because it doesn't capture all dangerous chances a team creates.

Thank you for providing context. Without adding in the lateral distance of the pass leading to the shot attempt, if the shot was contested or not, what kind of shot was taken, if it was an accurate shot or not there are so many variables that impact the quality of the scoring chance that these numbers don't mean much as they're currently constructed.

 

[raideralex99]

I watch these numbers night after night and feel like we're getting jobbed. They gave Laine 2 HD Corsi and no one else got one. I can think of at least a few others off the top of my head. Scheifele one timer just wide was 10' out ehlers spinarama wrist shot, hell even his goal was near slot. Wheeler redirect. Is it just me?

This is the problem with stats. Who is keeping track of the stats?
I know playing football fantasy with IDP.
The score keepers in Buffalo were very generous handing out tackles while the KC scorekeepers were the opposite.

 

[DRW204]

I watched the game and the obvious question here is who is tracking the "High Danger chances"? We scored 2 goals off of shots that I would consider a "high danger chance". Copp and Lowry had numerous 2 on 1s. There were some cross seam one-timers that I would also consider high danger chances. It's so subjective that it's essentially worthless especially when you see how many "High danger chances" got recorded compared to how many actually occurred. I think High Danger chances have much more value than Corsi or a stat like that but frankly we had more than 2 last game and the fact more than 2 weren't registered shows how flawed the stat keeper is more than it's an indication of the Jets play.

 

[Jimmyjets]

Thanks again! Obviously much better as it tracks they type of attempt and the quality of the shot. Again, I don't see Copp's attempted redirect on the 2 on 1 from Lowry. Way better but still needs to add a few elements including if it's a one-timer and if so what direction the pass came from, if the goalie was screened on the shot attempt and if the player was pressured on the shot but getting much better at telling the story.

 

[Gm0ney]

_______________________________________________

Much has been said about our so called AHL defence -- but is it really ? We have Morrissey, Kuikov and Pionk -- just for starters, and they have good NHL experience. Beaulieu is a #1 draft pick that's fitting in quite nicely, so to me our defence is playing quite well. Poolman is also holding his own quite nicely.

We are basically holding off a lot of good teams to just 1 or 2 goals, so our defence isn't that bad --they are doing quite well. If Buff ever comes back, I think our Blue line will look very good --especially if Poolman and Beaulieu keep getting better.

Sbisa's too slow for the NHL. Kulikov...my goodness, I don't know what he's doing out there...

But Pionk has been exceeding expectations. Morrissey seems to be regaining his form. Poolman seems to be figuring it out...although prone to some bad play when he's pressured.

 

[Jet]

I watched the game and the obvious question here is who is tracking the "High Danger chances"? We scored 2 goals off of shots that I would consider a "high danger chance". Copp and Lowry had numerous 2 on 1s. There were some cross seam one-timers that I would also consider high danger chances. It's so subjective that it's essentially worthless especially when you see how many "High danger chances" got recorded compared to how many actually occurred. I think High Danger chances have much more value than Corsi or a stat like that but frankly we had more than 2 last game and the fact more than 2 weren't registered shows how flawed the stat keeper is more than it's an indication of the Jets play.

But.. stats!!

I raised this question in a stats thread as well. A shot isn't simply dangerous from where is taken. Velocity, accuracy, release, change of angle, point of release, previous events just before the shot all have massive impact.

 

[scelaton]

On the physicality front, the Preds changed their lineup to be "heavier" with Olivier over Turris and were throwing hits around all night, they still lost. There were a couple of times where they lost possession because they lost a physical battle but the team covered well for it.

We are a much smaller team without Buff, Myers and Trouba playing big minutes on D. Connor, Ehlers and Roslo are are very slight in build on the top-6. I think other teams are taking notice and really laying on the body.

We will have to see how this plays out. Yeah, I know all about the negative correlation between hits and possession, but it still concerns me, as it will take its toll over a long season.
The first casualty of it, I suspect, is Niku, who might have been given a spot if we were not already a team of dwarfs.*

(*hope that is not politically incorrect--been watching a lot of Game of Thrones)

 

[Skidooboy]

But.. stats!!

I raised this question in a stats thread as well. A shot isn't simply dangerous from where is taken. Velocity, accuracy, release, change of angle, point of release, previous events just before the shot all have massive impact.

I'm kind of sick of fancy stats. I'v raised this again and again. no-one has ever really answered it with anything beyond "It's the best info we have....which makes me wonder why so many people put soooooo much emphasis on stats.(I also heard a TED talk where a statistician said that basically anyone who isn't a PHD statistician is probably misinterpreting any star they cite and even the PHDs get it wrong a lot). I think stats are worthwhile in baseball . Each pitch is a single event. The game is static until that 1 single event. Hockey is dynamic. Constant change is the norm, all kinds of variables that are impossible to track, then there's plain old lucky bounces ...it's impossible. I heard a guy who was working n a new type of goalie stat about two years ago....the way he put it was that after watching every single game in the NHL that season and analyzing every single goal and shot was that every metric we have been using is basically useless.(I've tried to find the interview but I can never seem to find it.) he said that most goals aren't actually scored by what they typically described as "dangerous" pucks hit a skate gouge and shift path or a guy who isn't even looking backs his ass into a puck....there's just so many ways the puck can go in the net.

anyhow I thought the jets played OK and yes Helle kept them in it when they weren't playing well.

 

[Gm0ney]

But.. stats!!

I raised this question in a stats thread as well. A shot isn't simply dangerous from where is taken. Velocity, accuracy, release, change of angle, point of release, previous events just before the shot all have massive impact.

So you don't believe that a shot from the crease has a higher chance of going in than a shot from the blue line?

 

[Jets 31]

We are a much smaller team without Buff, Myers and Trouba playing big minutes on D. Connor, Ehlers and Roslo are are very slight in build on the top-6. I think other teams are taking notice and really laying on the body.

We will have to see how this plays out. Yeah, I know all about the negative correlation between hits and possession, but it still concerns me, as it will take its toll over a long season.
The first casualty of it, I suspect, is Niku, who might have been given a spot if we were not already a team of dwarfs.*

(*hope that is not politically incorrect--been watching a lot of Game of Thrones)

If the frigging refs actually do their jobs , we would have alot more PP's this season . Last night we definitely should have had at least 2 more , then i wouldn't mind teams trying to hit us into submission . We could make the other team pay by putting the puck in the net .

 

[Gm0ney]

If the frigging refs actually do their jobs , we would have alot more PP's this season . Last night we definitely should have had at least 2 more , then i wouldn't mind teams trying to hit us into submission . We could make the other team pay by putting the puck in the net .

The Jets are actually doing quite well here. Our PP/PK differential is a league-leading +37:44 minutes. 66 PP opportunities for and only 47 against.

 

[PhilJets]

I hope we can get a healthy and Buff back before the trade deadline. Well Little for sure.

They will boost the Jets depth.
At the same time they are good trade chip if ever.


Oh Jets won. I like it!

This is a skilled team.
Pionk and Beulieu are replacing Myers and Chairot admiralbly.

Roslovic is now better than Tanev.
And one of the 4th line just need to be an energy uy on consistant basis.
Much improve Perrault. Also Copp is much better than last year Copp.

Ehlers Connor Laine just keep improving.

This is a playoff team. No reason not to be.

Well Helly, but anywhere (leagues or level) he went he was an elite goalie. Actually godly numbers except with the Jets.

In the end losing, really a Trouba shouldn't drop you from top 3 teams in the league down to bubble team 14 to 18. Specially if your one of the youngest team last year. You should be improving actually.

He isn't even an anchor Dman that can carry a team.

We can say Buff and Little also we lost so far this year. But all team goes through injuries. In somewhat, That's Buff concern.

 

[Jet]

So you don't believe that a shot from the crease has a higher chance of going in than a shot from the blue line?

Sure but so many factors influence both of those shots that not always.

A weak shot from the crease along the ice when the goalies pad is there has a very small chance of going in. A super accurate one t howie from the point through a screen has a good chance of going in.

Those are extremes but there are so many impacts on shots as an event that to count one as the same as the other because it occured in the same area of the ice is primitive and shortsighted.

What if that shot from the crease was two inches from the goalie who had paddle down and was fully in front of the shooter? What if the point shot occured when the goalie was racing back to his net after giving it away?

 

[BoneDocUK]

Sure but so many factors influence both of those shots that not always.

A weak shot from the crease along the ice when the goalies pad is there has a very small chance of going in. A super accurate one t howie from the point through a screen has a good chance of going in.

Those are extremes but there are so many impacts on shots as an event that to count one as the same as the other because it occured in the same area of the ice is primitive and shortsighted.

What if that shot from the crease was two inches from the goalie who had paddle down and was fully in front of the shooter? What if the point shot occured when the goalie was racing back to his net after giving it away?

I'm not a stats expert, but my assumption would be that the latter shot attempt could be classified as high-danger despite not being taken from the slot because of the contextual elements you identify -- goalie out of net, noted high-accuracy shooter, etc. These stats are buttressed by watching the games for precisely those contextual elements, no? Pretty sure that Garrett9 has addressed this on several occasions.

I agree that simply scraping numbers from a vast data set for a sport as dynamic and context-dependent as ice hockey would provide results of limited usefulness, just as a psych experiment that uses only exit interviews without follow-up, observation or weighting would tend to be. My bet would be that better advanced-stats services would pay close attention to context.

 

[Jet]

I'm not a stats expert, but my assumption would be that the latter shot attempt could be classified as high-danger despite not being taken from the slot because of the contextual elements you identify -- goalie out of net, noted high-accuracy shooter, etc. These stats are buttressed by watching the games for precisely those contextual elements, no? Pretty sure that Garrett9 has addressed this on several occasions.

I agree that simply scraping numbers from a vast data set for a sport as dynamic and context-dependent as ice hockey would provide results of limited usefulness, just as would a psych experiment that used only exit interviews without follow-up, observation or weighting would be. My bet would be that better advanced-stats services would pay close attention to context.

That would definitely improve the accuracy, but at the same time, that would introduce a lot of variance to the stats depending on their own bias or understanding of the game. So, they'd be relying on eye test which I've been told is AWFUL

 

[Stumbledore]

I'm kind of sick of fancy stats.

I'd give your post 4 hoofies up, but then...

Well, you know.... I'd land on my antlers.