The Columbus Dispatch: Umberger wants out (Dispatch link post #276)

[Cyclones Rock]

Umberger produced like a third line forward at even strength despite getting first line linemates for the majority of the season:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+RW&f5=CBJ&f7=40-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20

His power play production in terms of goals (he had 8 goals and 4 assists on the PP) was a fluke. RJU ranked 17th in the league with 3.09 goals per 60 minutes 5 vs 4.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...f4=C+LW+RW&f7=50-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20

His last four years at 5 vs. 4 per 60 minutes in goal production and NHL rank (50 GP min except for lockout year...40 PG min) were:

2013-14.... 3.09 (#17)
2012-13.....1.00 (#129)
2011-12.....1.38 (#137)
2010-11.....1.70 (#104)

Umberger even strength production was very poor this season (again) despite being given every opportunity to shine. He will not repeat his PP production. He received less time this year on the PP per game (2:03) than he had in any season I checked (went back to 2010-11) yet scored as many goals as he had in that period while on the PP. This season's PP was a fluke. Quite frankly, he got lucky.

He'll be 32 next season and his offensive production will continue to slide. He's an ok defensive player, but nothing special. Also, for his size, he plays very, very soft.

There is no compelling reason to keep this guy on the books. It will be expensive to buy him out (roughly $10 million), but not compared to the Lecavilier, DePietro or any of the true albatross contracts which other teams have swallowed. It's a one time opportunity to get rid of a previous managment's poor contract and fill the space with a better player.

RJ Umberger isn't a player the Jackets need going forward regardless of his pay. He was given every opportunity to right the ship this season and he didn't. Time to move on without him.

 

[Dumais]

I would just say, keep Umberger until one of Jenner, Wennberg, Dano, Rychel ... whomever shows they can make up for the loss in goal production. And his contract will be up around the time they begin to break thru so keep'em.

 

[EspenK]

And as I previously pointed out, your outlined opinion gives major minutes in his place to unproven guys like Skille and Tropp who have never even come close to Umby's goal total between them combined, let alone any one of them getting there.

I believe I said give his spot on the roster to one of those $1 million guys as the 13th forward and use the savings towards adding a top 6 forward. Maybe not in those exact words but that is my thinking.


It's a false savings. It really is. I think folks are wanting him bought out simply because they're still bitter about the extension, not because of actual performance, current and historical.

Again I think you miss the point. Besides the fact that most of us pro-buyout people don't believe he is really that productive, he just doesn't fit anywhere in the line-up. I could give a crap about the extension;if he produced he would be worth it-he hasn't and isn't worth it.

* * *​

Tremendous mistake if they do. Callahan has only ever done better than Umberger in point scoring all of once, is smaller, and would cost much much more.

Seriously, this is completely irrational. We do not stand to gain anything useful, positive, constructive, or helpful by dumping Umberger, despite the wild fantasies of his many, many opponents.

* * *​

Not my point you are responding to but I don't think we should sign Callahan at 6 mill a year. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't sign him for Umby money. I don't think we need him.


How much did Nathan Horton get on the open market? That's about what Umberger would get. Maybe slightly less. Maybe.

You only think I'm exaggerating. They're both guys prone to production slumps (umby thru play, Horton thru injury) who regularly put up at or about 20 goals in a season and have established reputations for turning it on the playoffs.

Unless Mike Milbury comes back to GM no one pays Umbie Horton money.

I think you are too emotionally tied to Umbie and most Jacket players. Sometimes some players are going to have to go if this team is going to continuously improve. Do you really think that icing this exact same roster next year will produce a much better team? I don't.

 

[Viqsi]

I wouldn't even be remotely surprised to see RJ get that much money. I'm just not always sure he's worth it.

I think it's the problem the jackets have in general. Lots of guys who can put 20 g per year but may not or may do more. Umby is just the easiest for people to pick on since he makes more than foligno, dubi, Jenner, letestu, Horton, cam, etc. Not really a bad problem to have but not easy to fix (personnel decisions that cut and may not pay off).

He wouldn't be worth it. Umby is definitely overpaid by at least $1m/year if not more. Any hypothetical replacement, however, would be even more badly overpaid by comparison due to the nature of the free agent market in this decadent modern age.

* * *​

I would just say, keep Umberger until one of Jenner, Wennberg, Dano, Rychel ... whomever shows they can make up for the loss in goal production. And his contract will be up around the time they begin to break thru so keep'em.

Completely agree here.

* * *​

His power play production in terms of goals (he had 8 goals and 4 assists on the PP) was a fluke.

I love how RJ's most notable contribution this year is inevitably "a fluke" based on past record, but any suggestion of possible playoff play based on past record is to be instantly and irrevocably dismissed.

Am I the only one seeing this endless, unceasing double standard that has been going on for years where Umberger is concerned? Or am I merely the only one pointing it out?

* * *​

I believe I said give his spot on the roster to one of those $1 million guys as the 13th forward and use the savings towards adding a top 6 forward. Maybe not in those exact words but that is my thinking.

You will not get a top-6 forward for better money. Not in this market. The supply just isn't there. We may get somebody, and people will happily convince themselves that they have a Better Deal as a result (say, if we sign someone like Moulson for $6m/year), but that would be an extremely dubious position.

Again I think you miss the point. Besides the fact that most of us pro-buyout people don't believe he is really that productive, he just doesn't fit anywhere in the line-up. I could give a crap about the extension;if he produced he would be worth it-he hasn't and isn't worth it.

By similar logic, guys like Foligno, Horton, Atkinson, and indeed every single damn forward short of Johansen and maybe MacKenzie "don't have a fit".

The guy isn't a singular roleplayer. You can't say "he doesn't fit into round hole X, therefore buy him out" and expect to be credible.

Not my point you are responding to but I don't think we should sign Callahan at 6 mill a year. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't sign him for Umby money. I don't think we need him.

Well, we can agree on that at least.

Unless Mike Milbury comes back to GM no one pays Umbie Horton money.

Look. At. The. Market. Look at who is there. Look at their ages. Look at their production. Look at RECENT contracts. Not "I remember it being this way" or "during the last lockout it was X" or whatever. Look at the current trend. Horton money is not just possible, I'd call it downright likely. His playoff record - despite it being dismissed around here - makes him attractive on the market.

EDIT: Feel I should point out - when I say Horton money, I mean on an annual basis. I would be shocked if he got the same kind of term, because of his age if nothing else.

I think you are too emotionally tied to Umbie and most Jacket players.

How strange. I could say very much the same. except from the opposite direction.

He's the Whipping Boy. This pattern is well established among hockey fans all over the world. Don't fall for the antihype. He's not 100% what he was, but he's getting treated like a liability when he's at worst an Average Player.

Do you really think that icing this exact same roster next year will produce a much better team? I don't.

Not Buying Out Umby != Doing Nothing.

 

[blahblah]

It was said by the Dispatch that we didn't sign Prospal was that we wanted the minutes going to the youth. Does that apply to future youth? Is that enough of a reason, by the front office, to buy out RJ? Is there a FA they would rather give RJ's minutes to?

It's rhetorical; these questions are for the front office. No one should take offense; but I'm really not interested to fan opinion. It will be varied and too much fan bias in the conversation - very little analytical thought.

To me this is a numbers (roster spot) issue. I don't think the Jackets, necessarily, care about the 4.6 million. In other words from a cap perspective. If they had maybe they would have bought out RJ last season. There were some comments from the front office to suggest that RJ was given some direction on part of his game they didn't like - including conditioning. Did we resolve those enough in their mind.

RJ is kind of a mixed bag. He does some things well and he seems to be a positive in the lockerroom. He's also scored some PP goals. On the flip side, he's really not that great in transition and in the offensive zone he's about as one dimensional as you can get. He seems like a redundant, lesser version of Horton. Although RJ seems to have a stronger defensive game.

We'll see what happens.

 

[Viqsi]

RJ is kind of a mixed bag. He does some things well and he seems to be a positive in the lockerroom. He's also scored some PP goals. On the flip side, he's really not that great in transition and in the offensive zone he's about as one dimensional as you can get. He seems like a redundant, lesser version of Horton. Although RJ seems to have a stronger defensive game.

Not that I think you're implying otherwise, but given that our goal scoring is largely "by-committee", and thereby some guys will go into periodic slumps and others will lose time to injury and some extra-special folks will do both, I think that kind of "redundancy" is a good thing.

Can be overdone, admittedly, but 1) I don't think we're at that stage yet and 2) I'm not seeing why Umberger would be the first casualty of choice if/when that happens, aside from some folks still being bitter over the post-contract slump.

 

[sventington]

oh God please do. He is a Habs killer. Somehow let him end up in the west...

 

[blahblah]

Not that I think you're implying otherwise, but given that our goal scoring is largely "by-committee", and thereby some guys will go into periodic slumps and others will lose time to injury and some extra-special folks will do both, I think that kind of "redundancy" is a good thing.

Can be overdone, admittedly, but 1) I don't think we're at that stage yet and 2) I'm not seeing why Umberger would be the first casualty of choice if/when that happens, aside from some folks still being bitter over the post-contract slump.

Meh, we've got so much of that style of player - well maybe it's time get another type of player. We're nothing if overly predictable.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

It was said by the Dispatch that we didn't sign Prospal was that we wanted the minutes going to the youth. Does that apply to future youth? Is that enough of a reason, by the front office, to buy out RJ? Is there a FA they would rather give RJ's minutes to?

It's rhetorical; these questions are for the front office. No one should take offense; but I'm really not interested to fan opinion. It will be varied and too much fan bias in the conversation - very little analytical thought.

To me this is a numbers (roster spot) issue. I don't think the Jackets, necessarily, care about the 4.6 million. In other words from a cap perspective. If they had maybe they would have bought out RJ last season. There were some comments from the front office to suggest that RJ was given some direction on part of his game they didn't like - including conditioning. Did we resolve those enough in their mind.

If you don't like "fan opinion", then why are you on a fan message board and offering more fan opinion than anyone else on everything else?

Umberger couldn't have been bought out last season as his contract hadn't yet started.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

RJ Umberger is not a top 6 forward nor would he get anything like Horton money.

After the Jackets buy him out in June, he'll be lucky if he gets a 2 year deal worth more than $2 million per.

 

[EspenK]

I wouldn't even be remotely surprised to see RJ get that much money. I'm just not always sure he's worth it.

I think it's the problem the jackets have in general. Lots of guys who can put 20 g per year but may not or may do more. Umby is just the easiest for people to pick on since he makes more than foligno, dubi, Jenner, letestu, Horton, cam, etc. Not really a bad problem to have but not easy to fix (personnel decisions that cut and may not pay off).

Its not because he makes more. At least from my perspective.

Play who would I rather have; Umbie or

Horton- I'll take Horton
Dubi- doh!
Foligno-"
Cam- younger, more upside,better offensively,faster,
Jenner Doh! Doh!
New top 6 forward who is better offensively- This is why i think Umbie has to go-to make room for this person. Only at this point does the money come into play in my mind-you can't afford to keep a 3rd/4th liner at 4.6 mill for 3 years and take up a roster space. Its not the money;its the roster space. Now if JK determines Umbie is money better spent than trying to sign Stastny,Moulson.Vanek, then I guess he stays. I just don't think he will pass up the opportunity to dump the contract without a cap hit.

 

[Dr. Fire]

I really don't give a rats ass what happens this summer, and I really don't give a crap what happened during the regular season.

All I know is that Umberger is money in the play-offs, and I wish he was healthy.

 

[EspenK]

I really don't give a rats ass what happens this summer, and I really don't give a crap what happened during the regular season.

All I know is that Umberger is money in the play-offs, and I wish he was healthy.

 

[punk_o_holic]

What players around the NHL is rumored to be getting bought out? Any chance a Umberger for for any of the players rumored to getting bought out trade works? Maybe a change scenery would work for both players?

 

[Xoggz22]

I simply don't see the ownership group paying someone to go away and then going out and spending wildly on a free agent. Columbus continues to lose money so a move like this seems out of character. Umby probably magnifies the rock and hard place. His pay for expected performance seems out of line to me but paying him to no play seems out of line to management....

 

[EspenK]

I simply don't see the ownership group paying someone to go away and then going out and spending wildly on a free agent. Columbus continues to lose money so a move like this seems out of character. Umby probably magnifies the rock and hard place. His pay for expected performance seems out of line to me but paying him to no play seems out of line to management....

Okay, one more time on the math. In total over the next 6 years we save 4.6 million dollars. We save 3 million a year in cash flow for the next 3 years. So far both aspects are financially beneficial. The only place it is financially detrimental is paying out 1.5 for the last 3 years. And while probably not important for next year, we save 4.6 against the cap. This could become a factor for the following two years when we have to re-sign Bob, Dubi,Cam, Calvert, Foligno, & Anisimov and Murray plus hopefully add a top 6 forward. Not to mention whatever cap hit Joey eats up this year.

Money will not be a reason to not buy him out. Thinking we are better off with him than without him will be the reason he stays.
In the final analysis JK will make the decision on what he sees as best for the team not based on dollars.

 

[Robert]

Tough question.... I can be quoted as wanting to use our last compliance buyout chance on RJ but he actually played decent this season... and I actually wish he was ready to play vs. Pittsburgh in the playoffs for his veteran presence alone....

May as well keep the guy, after all, he is a Buckeye!! (Serious too, I'm a Buckeye and so are my two adult kids!)

 

[Nanabijou]

I wouldn't be sad to see Umby gone. He just really turned me off when he had a real slow start right after signing a big fat contract, making it seem like he kind of dialed it in during the summer of the contract extension. Then, again last year, it didn't seem like he kept in good game-shape during the lockout.

He did play better this year so I'll give him credit for that. I'd be open for a trade, but a buyout doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It's not my money, but if it was, I wouldn't be shelling out millions for Umby to go play somewhere else. I'd rather keep him even if it means he's a way-overpaid 3rd liner.

 

[EDM]

Roster improvements have to be made somewhere next year and I don't see a more likely person to replace than RJ as part of an upgrade. That to me is the bottom line. I just don't see the management team standing standing still going into next year.

 

[Viqsi]

May as well keep the guy, after all, he is a Buckeye!! (Serious too, I'm a Buckeye and so are my two adult kids!)

I've used that particular hook before, but only insofar as it allows me to keep fellow Buckeyes from tuning me out when I start talking hockey or showing them a game and trying to encourage their interest. "Yeah, that's Umby over there, but look at this Johansen guy... oh, and that's Cam Atkinson, he's awesome... and yeah, that was Bobrovsky making that save..."

* * *​

Roster improvements have to be made somewhere next year and I don't see a more likely person to replace than RJ as part of an upgrade. That to me is the bottom line. I just don't see the management team standing standing still going into next year.

I think the bulk of the planned roster improvements at forward are going to involve finding a replacement for Gaborik. Unless we really think Frattin is a long-term option in that regard.

There's also age and continued development to be considered, but, well, none of us are prepared to lean too heavily on all that after several years of "the kids are all right and will save us all next year, just you wait".

 

[XLJ]

If they want to improve the team they need to dump Umberger and replace him with a better player. The goal this offseason should be to find Johansen another legitimate 1st line player imo. It could be trying to sign Vanek or trying to trade for Semin or Bobby Ryan. They are going to need to get rid of RJ's contract to do that.

Put one of those players with Johansen, keep the 2nd line together, hopefully put a healthy Horton with Anisimov and you got a very deep team.

 

[db2011]

I think these playoffs could inform this decision

 

[Xoggz22]

Okay, one more time on the math. In total over the next 6 years we save 4.6 million dollars. We save 3 million a year in cash flow for the next 3 years. So far both aspects are financially beneficial. The only place it is financially detrimental is paying out 1.5 for the last 3 years. And while probably not important for next year, we save 4.6 against the cap. This could become a factor for the following two years when we have to re-sign Bob, Dubi,Cam, Calvert, Foligno, & Anisimov and Murray plus hopefully add a top 6 forward. Not to mention whatever cap hit Joey eats up this year.

Money will not be a reason to not buy him out. Thinking we are better off with him than without him will be the reason he stays.
In the final analysis JK will make the decision on what he sees as best for the team not based on dollars.

So what you're saying is a $3MM replacement over the next 3 years and a subsequent replacement for that player at $1.5MM over the following three years provides a net sum of zero over the next 6 years.

I get the "math" and the money. It'd be great if that's all this was about. I don't think you'll see a "cap" team in Columbus long term. I get what we're paying right now and some of that was a reflection of moves to change the culture and get a winning team in place. I'll continue to point to St. Louis as an example. They got better, built their system and shed payroll. I personally believe the CBJ are looking to do the right thing. I also firmly believe that they will do everything in their power to move RJ in the off season and do so by retaining salary. Pay 1/2 for 3 years if you have to. That's better than a buyout. If the cap continues to go up Columbus has a long way to go before they are forced into several high level, high $$ impact players. There are three candidates that I see on the current roster - Bob, Murray and Joey. There is plenty of room for them in the next three years.

Sorry, I'm just not one that feels cap space is an issue short or long term with this club. Players will move. I do agree that moving on from RJ could benefit. I think he offers value beyond 20 goals and leadership but have a tough time thinking that value is worth $4.6MM. At that same time I don't think ownership thinks it is so outlandish they'll buy him out. Certainly I could be wrong about that.

 

[Xoggz22]

Tough question.... I can be quoted as wanting to use our last compliance buyout chance on RJ but he actually played decent this season... and I actually wish he was ready to play vs. Pittsburgh in the playoffs for his veteran presence alone....

May as well keep the guy, after all, he is a Buckeye!! (Serious too, I'm a Buckeye and so are my two adult kids!)

Serious question... Who was our first? I believe we HAVE two compliance buyouts remaining but I don't see any chance in hell they use both. I still don't feel they'll buy out RJ. If so, OK with me. It's not my money or asset management but I think RJ offers value to someone - if not us.

 

[Samkow]

We've still got both compliance buyouts.