Uhhh folks, we’re 1-1 against the reigning champs

[meefer]

Avoided coming here last night for obvious reasons, and yup. Just a reminder to all the doom and gloom folks out here: we’re tied with Tampa! We’re not down by two. We’re the better team 5x5, we’re 1-1 in special teams. We’re in this, get behind your team for crying out loud. Enjoy life, smile, pat a dog, give a kid a hug, get off the ledge.

The sun is shining, I’m going for a walk and then have some lunch with my 92 year old aunt, and maybe a game of cribbage. It’s good to be alive. GLG

Click to read more...

 

[shaner82]

True, the sky is not falling. The Leafs shot themselves in the foot last night, particularly Simmonds.
The problem is two fold. Secondary scoring is going to be hard to come by if JT doesn't get his head out of his ass. It's tough to win in the playoffs without secondary scoring.

Also, we have no idea what is going to happen in net. Like always, we have the 2nd best goalie in the series. If Campbell makes timely saves for us, the Leafs will win this series. If Vasi stands on his head and then Campbell can't make a big save, the Leafs will lose.

It's tough having a big question mark in net, but we do

 

[3blizzard4]

And the unnecessary threads begin.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

And the unnecessary threads begin.

This one seems to be a reasonable counter weight the equally unnecessary "JT is costing us a Cup" thread.

If there was a button I could push which would flood the GTA water plants with Xanax, I would do it just for some reasonable takes on here.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I'd have been much more concerned if the Leafs held home ice advantage heading into the series and were heading back down 0-2.

No complaints whatsoever with a split.

 

[ITM]

There's no boogey man in Tampa or anywhere else for that matter.

Five on five our club can skate with any team.

Love the short-handed goal at the end.

A good sign that despite the titled ice, the club is willing to skate up hill if need be.

 

[ACC1224]

Ok, enjoy your lunch. Say hi to your Aunt for us.

 

[Buds17]

A 1-1 series is also a bit more common than 2-0 at this early stage. All that's really changed is that the team now has to win a game in Tampa to advance.

 

[Shooter2x]

There hasn't been much doom and gloom just a Tavares hate fest mainly. Even though he was the best in the defensive zone across both teams. But hey 5 first round losses in a row who really needs a guy that can shut down Tampa in our own end right? Worry about that against a better team

 

[Morbo]

they lost but they didn't fold when the game went against them, which is what has happened a number of times in the past. I didn't think the Leafs were going to sweep Tampa and I doubt anyone else (sane) did either.

 

[Srsly]

True, the sky is not falling. The Leafs shot themselves in the foot last night, particularly Simmonds.
The problem is two fold. Secondary scoring is going to be hard to come by if JT doesn't get his head out of his ass. It's tough to win in the playoffs without secondary scoring.

Also, we have no idea what is going to happen in net. Like always, we have the 2nd best goalie in the series. If Campbell makes timely saves for us, the Leafs will win this series. If Vasi stands on his head and then Campbell can't make a big save, the Leafs will lose.

It's tough having a big question mark in net, but we do

We have eight goals in two games. I don’t think scoring is the issue yet.

Campbell also has better numbers through two games than a former Vezina winner. This could change at the drop of a hat but for now we absolutely do not have the “second best goalie” in the series.

Look…I’m disappointed but these hot takes need to stop. We’re the better team so far and despite losing momentum last night, We have just as much of a chance to win as Tampa. The Leafs are also a solid road team so the home I’ve advantage doesn’t matter much to me.

 

[shaner82]

We have eight goals in two games. I don’t think scoring is the issue yet.

Campbell also has better numbers through two games than a former Vezina winner. This could change at the drop of a hat but for now we absolutely do not have the “second best goalie” in the series.

Look…I’m disappointed but these hot takes need to stop. We’re the better team so far and despite losing momentum last night, We have just as much of a chance to win as Tampa. The Leafs are also a solid road team so the home I’ve advantage doesn’t matter much to me.

I agree with your take as a whole but come on. Vasi is far better than Campbell and it's not close.

You can't use stats from just 2 games to determine who is better. The sample size is too small. But everyone knows Vasi is better. Does that mean Campbell can't play as good as him or even play better, no it doesn't. But I'd trade Campbell for Vasi all day long

 

[AvroArrow]

And just win 1 of the next 2 in Tampa and all of a sudden home ice is ours again

 

[TakeTheBody]

Chill. 16-0 isn't realistic. We need one of the next two and we win this series. FINALLY.

 

[zeke]

Yeah it's 1-1.

We've outscored them 8-5 (62%) at all strengths, 5-2 at even strength (71%), and even on special teams (though they have 3 regular 5v4 goals while we have 2 shorthanded goals and 1 5v3 goal).

By the nerdies we're at 57% all strengths, and 53% at evens.

And so much of the bad stuff has been self-inflicted with out two goons running around like dummies.

It's a solid start, though losing home-ice advantage sucks. Though, really, it's arguable that there is even any real home ice advantage in the playoffs anywas. Both TB and TOR have been better on the road in the playoffs the past few years.

 

[The Shadow]

Chill. 16-0 isn't realistic. We need one of the next two and we win this series. FINALLY.

How does that work?

 

[zeke]

I agree with your take as a whole but come on. Vasi is far better than Campbell and it's not close.

You can't use stats from just 2 games to determine who is better. The sample size is too small. But everyone knows Vasi is better. Does that mean Campbell can't play as good as him or even play better, no it doesn't. But I'd trade Campbell for Vasi all day long

Agreed stats from 2 games is no bueno. And agreed that Vasi is better.

But hey if we look at the stats over the last two years, regular season and playoffs:

Vasi: 130gms, .922
Jack: 80gms, .918

The goalie matchup is no reason to give up on the series, imo.

How does that work?

If we split the next two then its back to even with 2 of the 3 remaining games in toronto.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No, it's not the home ice advantage team that is happy to split the first 2 games. Ever. That's ridiculous.

It's the team playing two road games to start the series that are happy to come out with a split.

I mean... what are we doing here?

 

[The Shadow]

Not sure if agree but the leafs dominated most of the first period. A goal there could have changed the momentum completely

 

[Buds17]

No, it's not the home ice advantage team that is happy to split the first 2 games. Ever. That's ridiculous.

It's the team playing two road games to start the series that are happy to come out with a split.

I mean... what are we doing here?

It might very well be a case of taking different journeys to a single destination then. Either the home team can win its games through the first four or there will be an even split. It shouldn't matter much either way if the series is tied at two games apiece after four.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I mean... what are we doing here?

Discussing the Leafs.

 

[zeke]

Last 3 playoffs (including this one):

TBL Home: 17-9, .607w%, 51.6xgf%, +0.96gdiff
TBL Road: 18-6, .750w%, 56.5xgf%. +0.88gdiff

TOR Home: 3-6, .333w%, 52.4xgf%, +0.11gdiff
TOR Road: 3-2, .600w%, 58.6xgf%, +0.80gdiff


I'm not sure home ice advantage is actually a thing tbh.

 

[Gallagbi]

Last 3 playoffs (including this one):

TBL Home: 17-9, .607w%, 51.6xgf%, +0.96gdiff
TBL Road: 18-6, .750w%, 56.5xgf%. +0.88gdiff

TOR Home: 3-6, .333w%, 52.4xgf%, +0.11gdiff
TOR Road: 3-2, .600w%, 58.6xgf%, +0.80gdiff


I'm not sure home ice advantage is actually a thing tbh.

We also haven't played infront of a playoff crowd in 2 years, either way, and Tampa has traditionally been Leafs fan heavy. Too many unknowns to say home ice is significant right now.

 

[Mess]

68% of teams that take game 1 win the series. Just saying.

Those odds are fleeting based on historical data.

Historical Stanley Cup Playoff data for 7-game series

First 2 games:

Winner Game 1, Series 1-0 ... 68.6 % ---- Loser : 31.4 %
Winner Game 2, Series 1-1 ... 51.9 % ---- Loser: 48.1 % (Leafs Currently)

Next 2 Games:

Game #3

Winner Game 3, Series 2-1 ... 67.4 % ---- Loser: 32.6 %

Game#4

Winner Game 4, Series 3-1 ... 89.6 % ---- Loser: 10.4 %
Winner Game 4, Series 2-2 ... 47.7 % ---- Loser: 52.3 %

==================================================

Based on the data of past results Leafs went from 68.6 % winning game #1 to just 48.1% (now underdogs) by winning game #1 but then losing game #2. More teams have actually lost game #1 and won game #2 and advanced on a 52% to 48% margin, but nearly still 50/50 coin flip.

Game #3 winner bumps it back up to 67.4%, or falls to 32.6%

Oddly if a team loses game #3 and wins #4 making the series 2-2 again, then the losing team of that game still had the better odds of winning the series. If you lose both games #3 and #4 then its essentially lights out and down to only 10.4%..

 

[zeke]

We also haven't played infront of a playoff crowd in 2 years, either way, and Tampa has traditionally been Leafs fan heavy. Too many unknowns to say home ice is significant right now.

Looking at the 3years pre-covid, Home playoffs teams went 132-126 (.512w%), so there's a bit of an advantage though really that's close enough to 50/50 to maybe not mean a lot.

and really, even that's a bit skewed given that higher seeded teams generally end up playing more home games than away games, while lower seeded teams play more away games than home games, so that would probably even lessen the difference further.