GDT: UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev

[MMC]

Date: March 8, 2025
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: 10 pm ET/7 pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Alex Pereira (c) vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Lightweight bout: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
Lightweight bout: Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Women's Strawweight bout: Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Lightweight bout: King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN, Sportsnet)

Heavyweight bout: Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Flyweight bout: Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya
Middleweight bout: Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan
Featherweight bout: Chris Gutierrez vs. John Casteneda

EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass)

Welterweight bout: Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal
Featherweight bout: Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
Middleweight bout: Djorden Santos vs. Ozzy Diaz​

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[CDJ]

I’ve got a lot of money on Fiziev

 

[MMC]

12 fights isn’t a lot for a PPV, we just had 2 fights fall out on weigh in day last week, that happens again and we’re down to a 10 fight PPV which seems less than ideal

 

[bov]

Intriguing main event, not a great card aside from that but not terrible.

I'm going with Ankalaev, could even see a T/KO. It would be a great story to see Pereira win too, so the outcome has magnitude either way.

Hate that they made the Gaethje/Fiziev rematch. One more bad loss for Gaethje and that might be it for him. I hope he finds a way to pull it off but I don't like his chances at all.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'm glad they made the main event even if I'm not stoked for it. I think Periera takes it. Ankalaev's wrestling is overrated IMO. I think he's getting some "he's a Muslim guy with a big beard so obviously he's a dominant wrestler" rub. The stats just don't back it up, though. He averages less than 1 takedown per 15min. Islam for comparison averages over 3. Jones is almost 2. Aspinall is over 3. Blaydes over 5. In addition to that, he doesn't have a submission win to his name. So a guy who averages less than 1 takedown per 15min is going to have to go 25min against a guy who has an automatic off button that has shown in carries late in the fight. Anything can happen, but I think Pereira should be a much bigger favorite.

If Fiziev wasn't coming off a pretty bad injury and a long layoff, I'd favor him. First fight was close and Gaethje is that much older now. But Fiziev is a question mark. It's a coin flip as far as I'm concerned.

On a related note, does anybody know if anyone has done research on late replacement fights? There are some classic moments like Bisping vs. Rockhold or Nate vs. Conor that come to mind immediately, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's skewing the reality that actually the guy preparing for a fight has the advantage.

 

[CDJ]

Ankalaev is primarily a striker with good risk management, he’s a decent wrestler who can mix it in against opponents with inferior grappling (like Jan) but it’s not his A game

For a guy that’s really good about managing risk when striking he’s a pretty dumb fighter when it comes to decision-making. Whether it’s getting triangled with a second left, or waiting until the last second to start wrestling Jan, or the DQ against Walker he simply does not have good fight IQ.

He has deserved this title shot for awhile and I’m interested in seeing what happens- I think its appropriately lined with Pereira as the slight favorite