Here, if you believe these things, are the odds of qualifying after doing 10,000 simulations:
Football rankings: 2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (11 September 2019)
Of course the games are played on the pitch and not on computers
At 99% or higher: Belgium, Italy, Spain, England, France, Russia, Germany, Portugal, Ukraine (98.9)
90+%: Netherlands (97.8), Turkey (95.7), Poland (93.9), Croatia (92.8), Finland (91.5), Switzerland (90.7)
80-89%: Denmark (84.5), Czech Republic (83.6), Sweden (80.1)
50-79%: Austria (69.7), Slovakia (66.3), Rep of Ireland (65.9), Wales (56.3), Serbia (52.6)
*This has all the League D playoff teams at under 50%, it has Georgia as the favorites to win the playoff but Kosovo has the higher chance of qualifying because they have a second path in their group. If Rep of Ireland and Wales don't finish in the top two of their groups, one will not make it as they are in the same league for the playoffs so the next favorite to make it is Hungary or Romania as these calculations have Iceland very low in both automatic qualifying and the playoff