GDT: U18 WCH's in Örnsköldsvik and Umeå 18 April-28 April 2019

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Players of the game are Lundell for Finland and Tracey for Canada. Heinola and Rees should’ve won imo. Lundell was great but Tracey only stood out when he scored
 
Vlasic and Hughes were terrible. Worst games I’ve seen from either of them. It happens. Sweden played a great game for 40 mins.

Soderstrom is legit. Pro ready. Incredibly clean and smart.

Knight is just on another level. Watch him on odd-man rushes. Reads are nearly impeccable. Better pray he ends up out west. If Allaire loved Olaf he probably has a shrine in a private room in his house for Knight.
 
yeah he looked nervous @Steve Kournianos - and maybe a long flight so I`m positive Hughes will bounce back maybe already next game. I only watched 40 min. so I did not see the whole game and I did not focus on him the whole 40 min.

He destroyed Sweden back in November and the defense gave him too much room. They obviously went over tape because they stuck to him like glue, with support from the forwards.
 
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Its hard to disagree with the notion that this is the best US U18 ever. They are really strong.

A few brief thoughts:

1. I would be a little cautious evaluating the US players one by one unless you take a close look at them. Its important to remember that the U18 is more of a one year-group tournament if you get what I mean, i.e. the 17 y/o's. There is in general a much bigger difference between an old mature 17 y/o and a young 16 y/o late bloomer. That difference isn't as big in the U20, i.e. the difference between the young 18 y/o and the old 19 y/o is a bit smaller.

Hence, when playing Sweden, Finland, the Czech and the Slovaks especially there is usually a bigger difference between the US and Canada on one side and the smaller countries on the other.

We hear about every other US kid breaking records, but one big part of that is that they are a dominant team. Cam York is for example far from the best offensive D-men the US have had in the U18, I am not even sure if its correct to label him as an offensive D-men. He is a very solid 2-way guy who plays simple with the big guns.

2. On the other side of the spectrum, you have some kids facing pretty tough situations when going up against a team that is in some areas so very much better than what they are.

For example, Sweden's centers were in order Karl Henriksson (ranked around the 3-5th round), Arvid Costmar (75th euro skater, may not get drafted), Oscar Bjerselius (not ranked) and Albin Sundvik (112 euro skater).

Those 4 went up against Hughes, Turcotte and Beecher, all whom will go in the 1st round in the draft. You know, there is a biiiiig difference in that regard, and it of course affects the players around those center groups a ton. Imagine if two teams had like NHL Ds and wingers, but one had McDavid, Matthews and Schleife at center and the other had four Gabriel Fontains. The Swedish D's for example totally have to carry the transition play for Sweden, for good and bad. They get a lot of space, but they are of course also exposed more. You see some remark about this D making a mistake here and there, someone taking a penalty or getting taken down driving up the puck late in a shift. And they are of course also noticed more in good ways because they have to take a lot of responsibility. But its just important to try to sort out what is what really.

But I think that is what is fun with international hockey.

3. Its always important to try to map the trends out there, armature scouting is really impacted a lot by that.

Just look at the output of countries like Sweden and Finland year by year. Some years they produce zero or one NHLer, others 20. Its not only a matter of available talent, its if the programs are doing the right things, or if someone else just is working harder and doing a better job. You get stuck in old patterns after being successful, at the same time some other country is having a huge crisis and have turned every rock to improve and all of a sudden the country that was flying high has fallen behind. It can be structural differences. The Czech's and Slovak kids not developing well when everyone go to NA as a 15-16 y/o's. All of a sudden a KHL is buying all the top talent from the men's league, and like more kids get a chance to play in the Liiga in Finland as 17 y/o's and that help them. That type of stuff.

Anyway, I can't help but constantly be pretty impressed by the 'depth defenders' on especially Canada and the US. Its still very important to have D's that can defend in hockey. But as the game has become so much faster, forwards have just over night stopped 'never stick handle on the offensive blueline', the ref's really are calling the slashes and hooks -- the old guard of the defensive defensemens have just lost so much value. The Staal and Girardis, like they are not very valuable core players anymore, all over the league. Many have faced an early retirement.

But these guys that are coming up today, the defensive defensemens born 2001, they have grown up under these conditions. Helleson, Vlasic, Korczak and co. I was very sceptical about Cal Foote before his draft, but I thought he was phenomenal in the U20 and now my best bet is that he will become a very valuable NHL D. I definitely don't think you should disregard them anymore in the drafts.

4. I've been kind of high on a few Swedish forwards, and I think most are really well developed and play great hockey, they are just lacking in top talent in this year's group.

I've considered if Grewe isn't a bit underrated overall and probably deserves being mentioned later in the 1st round, higher in the 2nd. But nah, the overall talent is just not quite there.

Simon Holmström
is exciting in some areas, but he doesn't cut it for me.

5. With that said, Karl Henriksson is a kid that you really can question if its correct that he is getting -- zero -- attention?

The reason for why the NHL draft over the years are sprinkled with real diamonds in the rough finds is because many kids are hard to evaluate. Can Karl Henriksson be a steal for someone? He is really smart and thinks the game offensively exactly how you want an offensive player to process things nowadays. He is always aware of where his teammate are on the ice, and doesn't get caught in easy to read patterns.

But he isn't really built as a top 1-2 round pick, he doesn't really move like a 1-2 pick. OTOH, his skating is certainly very deceptive, for someone who don't look perfect when he is skating, he can certainly accomplish so much when he is moving with the puck.

Henriksson played both soccer and hockey very late in his career, and actually made national team camps for the soccer teams too before he chose hockey. That alone is very impressive. But it also means that he hasn't had any "off-seasons" before the last couple of years, hockey during the winter and soccer during the summer.

I would really do my due diligence in the combine on this kid, is there a lot of physical development potential? Is he prepared to put in the work to take it to the next level? He is a real happy-go-lucky kid. If so I am throwing a late 1st at him. At least a 2nd rounder.

6. Jack Hughes didn't have the most impressive game vs Sweden, I think it shows that he has been a bit injured.

So what everyone is asking themselves -- can this actually get NJ to rethink who they will select 1st overall? Well I wouldn't rule it out. But one thing is sure, its never going to be an easy call to pass on Hughes. He is a center. He got that unique first overall auora on the ice. He goes deep and fetches the puck and it looks like he isn't even starting to break a sweat and all of a sudden he has driven the puck length of the ice and created something. I saw my first WJCs in 92/93. Then it was back and forth for a handful of years, sometimes it was broadcasted, other years not. But then from the later 90's I've seen all tournaments. I've traveled to a handful.

Hughes certainly belongs in a group of the non-questionable looking first overall picks with his talent. The top 3/4 if you get what I mean, he is a unique talent. So sure, someone can be better than him, but I don't think he will disqualify himself from being picked by NJ even if he haven't had the best last months with injuries etc.

7. Alex Turcotte is another kid with some issues before the tournament, was added late to the roster after being "ill" for several weeks.

Very high potential kid from my POV, Matt Duchene talent but with a 2-way game, head screwed on right. Certainly worthy of a 3rd overall pick in most drafts. If it wasn't for Hughes and some injuries, he would have been the clear no 1 center for the US all season, I think with that attention he would be held higher in general. He is a heck of a talent, works so hard both ways.

8. One kid that has been mentioned is Matt Boldy, its certainly fair. When I made my super raw draft top 31 like a month ago I wrote this about Boldy:
"There is a risk with guys like Boldy, and certainly also European guys playing men’s hockey from a young age, that you label them as low potential players. But I have no doubt that if Boldy played in like the OHL or Q or another lower level junior league and was not surrounded by a bunch of guys like Jack Hughes and co – impressive stats wouldn’t be an issue, but he would also develop and focus more on areas as a goto source for offense. Something that he will snooze a bit in the capacity he is used in right now. "

Amature scouting is hard in hockey. Anyone who thinks otherwise has no clue what he or she is doing. I am not sure where I will end up ranking Boldy, I had him 13th before. He could be around there in my next ranking or a lot higher. Who knows. But I can guarantee that it would be hard for any scout out there to explain why Matt Boldy should be held in much lower regard than for example Brady Tkachuk. Anyone want to give it a go? I can explain why Crosby is better than Matt Duchene for an outside person in a way that would sound like it made sense at least. But I can't tell you why Tkachuk is better than Boldy. Last time I ranked him I held him much lower, why? Gut feeling maybe.

9. One kid that a large portion of all scouts holds very high is Vasili Podkolzin. And boy can the kid play well.

But then I hear that he has 2 more years in Russia before he can come to NA (?). Two years is a long time, imagine if we had the 3rd pick? How would we feel about taking a kid that we won't see before the 21/22 season? Look, I definitely believe that you must be patient and in almost all cases if a kid is held up, its only good. I am sure its been good for Kravy. But you always have hopes, and it scary when someone is totally out of your control.

On top of that, Podkolzin does have some typical goto star type of issues that scouts won't always love. He did get frustrated against the Slovaks when he didn't get any points. There wasn't any reason for that, he played great. Created a ton of chances. But it affected his game a bit negatively. Scouts notes those type of things.

So I can't help but to wonder if he will fall a bit. And when a kid stats falling, you never know when it will end. But whoever he falls to, they are getting a heck of a player. Because this kid can play. He is strong on the puck. Amazingly slippery. So skilled. He shoots so well, something none of the US kids does besides Caufield. None of the Swedes either for that matter... There have been some talks about his stats, by I would bet my right arm on that he would destroy all of the CHL leagues, score a ton if he played for the USNDP or whatever junior league. Over a full season. There are something else behind his stats during a small sample size as he was loaned to SKA's junior team

10. I've not seen much hockey nor been to any of the WJCs in person the last years. My biggest take away of the day is easily -- damn Russia's hockey program is on track.

Look, there has been so much generalization about Russian players over the years and we all know that its BS. BUT, that doesn't mean that hockey in Russia has had some issues. If you look at many of the most awful performances in international hockey the last decades, Russia has been a part of them. Sometimes they have had an amazing amount of talent but totally failed to create a team of that talent. If we total the 07' and 11' WCH's, Alexander Ovechkin had 1 goal and 2 assists in 14 games. That is his 65 goals in a season years in the NHL.

I've seen soooo much of Russia, and so often felt that as a team, hands down, no ifs and buts about it, they have not done a good job. They haven't always played smart. They haven't always nailed down basic functions on a team. You need certain lines and players to buy into certain roles. Like if you put team against team, Russia vs Finland, and compare them the last decades, no doubt Russia haven't as a team been even remotely as effective as Finland. And it hasn't been hard to see why, it hasn't always been pretty. They have done many great things too, but often when they have over-performed and performed great, its been real results of real pure determination efforts and not necessarily super smart team play.

But, oh, you can instantly see now that the leagues, teams, youth systems and whatnot in Russia are so much "healthier". Russian kids have always been well drilled. But these are kids that are used to play competitive hockey. That have been forced to play a team game or they wouldn't do well in their every day competitions. That are well coached, pushed hard in all areas. You notice a difference all over compared to say 10 years ago. Everyone are buying into their roles. They play smart as a team, gets people closing in on the net when a shot is taken. Someone don't take a shot for the hell of it even if everyone else is in a bad position for it. Length of shifts. Details like how you move after a face-off, different strategies that they execute well. All over.

Russia is the world's largest country and hockey is big in Russia. But its important to remember that there aren't a ton of kids playing hockey in Russia, its actually the opposite. The last time I heard a number, there were as many kids in Russia playing hockey as there were in Sweden. Russia has a population of 150 million and Sweden 9 million. Hockey requires an infrastructure. Especially today. You need advanced rinks, available ice time for kids to train during. Educated coaches. Its all about infrastructure.

So just because the Russian program is doing great, it doesn't mean that we will see 10-15 Russians in the first round anytime soon. But the general kid, the one that maybe aren't as talented as Ilya Kovalchuk and co, he will be a lot more solid going forward than what was the case 10 years ago.

11. Yegor Spiridonov sticks out as being a very solid hockey player overall, just as an example. Where should he go in a draft? Why 37 and not 27? Why 27 and not 17?

12. Ilya Nikolayev is such a smart and talented hockey player in many areas. A bit Datsyuk/Toews/Bergeron like. Strong and gritty and stubborn, soft mitts and great vision, heavy shot. Can stickhandle in traffic.

But he doesn't have that separation speed. My rule of thumb is that if you don't have that separation speed and you don't happen to by Johnny Hockey II, you don't cut it. But that is just a rule...

13. Last and smallest, but not least (that might sound very odd in English lol, I am tired), Cole Caufield. What a puck talent. What a scorer. He scored three pretty easy opportunistic goals, they didn't blow me away. But you have to be impressed on how he for example gets a stick on every effin puck that is within his reach, and often manage to control it too. It took down one slapper clear that was 7-8 inches above the ice like it was a pass along the ice, could just start to skate forward with the puck. Talk about being a kid that is in the right spot at the right time.

So he -- must -- be a top 10 pick, right? Well who knows. I've been really high on him all year, every time I've checked in on Hughes I've been really impressed with this kid too.

But I am still not sure if he actually warrants a top 10 pick. I do think someone like that midget in Chicago has abilities that Caufield don't have. Ability to transport the puck, distributing it.

Would I be surprised if Caufield scored 50 in the NHL? Nope. How many else in all drafts can you say that about? Nobody else. But I also wouldn't be shocked if he ended up scoring around 20-25 goals and not a ton of assists. That is very good too for a hockey player, to be a consistent 25 goal scorer in the NHL. Its absolutely not a knock on the kid. He is special, how special?
 
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Vlasic and Hughes were terrible. Worst games I’ve seen from either of them. It happens. Sweden played a great game for 40 mins.

Soderstrom is legit. Pro ready. Incredibly clean and smart.

Knight is just on another level. Watch him on odd-man rushes. Reads are nearly impeccable. Better pray he ends up out west. If Allaire loved Olaf he probably has a shrine in a private room in his house for Knight.

Yeah, I didn't mention Knight above. Damn the kid pwned the Raymond line. They played so well, created many top chances, and then of course the US defense took away a lot of ice and stuff like that, but behind them Knight gave them absolutely nothing to shot at.

He does have franchise player potential.
 
Yeah maybe @Ola - I just saw norway U18 lost 5-2 in hockey - a huge different from norwegian U18 soccer team - too many play soccer where I live. :)

Kakko playing against Norway now in hockey for men. ;)

2-1 lead Finland.
So you're from Norway but stuck with us Rangers even after Mats left. Very nice. Much appreciated!
 
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Tobias bjornfot looks like a player. Smooth and poised. Does everything well and seems calm with the puck at all times.

That's a good end of rd 1 play

Newhook with a nice snipe too.

So much talent in these games
 
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If Podkolzin was still avail at 8 -- if you're the Rangers do you trade Kreider to Edmonton to also get the 8th OA?
 
Vlasic and Hughes were terrible. Worst games I’ve seen from either of them. It happens. Sweden played a great game for 40 mins.

Soderstrom is legit. Pro ready. Incredibly clean and smart.

Knight is just on another level. Watch him on odd-man rushes. Reads are nearly impeccable. Better pray he ends up out west. If Allaire loved Olaf he probably has a shrine in a private room in his house for Knight.

Knight was the best player of that game. Someone will definitely take him early in the draft.

C. Caufield with unreal shooting talent. Took a hard accurate shot from the sharp angle that hurt Alnefelt for a bit.
 
My observations from the parts of the US / SWE and FIN / CAN games I watched today were:

- I thought Broberg was the best player for Sweden. He was disruptive defensively with his speed and reach and was one of Sweden's best offensive generators primarily due to his skating ability / frame. He doesn't stickhandle much, but I thought he made good reads and he has a very good, hard, quick wrist shot from the point that he gets through well.
- The US team was way better than Sweden. At least Hughes, Turcotte, Caufield, Boldy, and York seemed to be a level above everyone on Sweden's team outside of Broberg.
- I thought Newhook might have been Canada's best player. His skating was a level above everyone else on the ice and he was smart with the puck when he had it.
- I thought Krebs was better than Cozens. Krebs seems to be smoother and more creative with the puck on his stick and is more engaged in battling and winning control of the puck than Cozens. The gap between Krebs / Cozens and Poulin / Rees was not big, if there was one at all. Brayden Tracey didn't seem as involved in driving play, but was effective at getting open and finishing chances.
- Harley didn't stand out as much as I thought he would.
- I thought Lundell was Finland's best player. In general, the 2020 class looks pretty good with Lundell, Simontaival, Holloway, Zary, Holtz, and Raymond all more than fitting in with players a year above them. Aatu Raty was the same way as a guy in the 2021 class.
 
Tobias bjornfot looks like a player. Smooth and poised. Does everything well and seems calm with the puck at all times.

That's a good end of rd 1 play

Newhook with a nice snipe too.

So much talent in these games
Would have been our pick with tb winning it all. Oh well.
 
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