Tyson Jost

[Iceberg]

This year hes on pace for 43 and heating up.

He is in fact on pace for 33 points and that is really unimpressive considering scoring is way up this year, and he is being outscored by both Kerfoot and Compher considerably.

Personally, my belief is that we have the pieces to make this work but Bednar is really set in his ways in terms of his vision of the team. I would have Soderberg centering the 2nd line and Jost centering the 3rd to bring him along more slowly, give him easier matchups and take some of the pressure off. If Bednar wasn't so stubborn on only playing Carl with grinders, maybe we'd be seeing something different than we are right now.

I believe Soderberg is already our #2C, my impression is that he gets tougher minutes than Kerfoot/Jost/Compher/Kamenev. Not sure how Bednar could make life easier for those kids.

As for Wilson, we know he is a limited player. Yet, he has done a very good job on the 1st PP unit and is much more usefull there than Jost.

 

[avsfan09]

@Iceberg look at the date of my post.

 

[Iceberg]

@Iceberg look at the date of my post.

Two days ago?

 

[avsfan09]

Two days ago?

When I posted that he was on pace for 43.

 

[henchman21]

I think the moral of the story is don't make projections on small sample sizes during hot streaks.

A significant concern I have with Jost is the pure lack of production at even strength. The past 2 seasons he has 20 ES points in 89 games. If you include his 6 games after he left North Dakota, you have 21 points in 95 games. This year he has 6 in 24 and that isn't a marked improvement. I believe he has played much better since being moved to wing, and I think production will follow there (allows him to focus on offense more). For Jost, long-term, I think that rate needs to double to be as effective of a 2nd line producer as will be needed to compete. I think he will get there, but it is a rather concerning number that I'd like to start seeing creep up. If he can finish the year starting to push .4 for this season, I think that will be a good step in the right direction.

 

[Iceberg]

When I posted that he was on pace for 43.

He wasn't on pace for 43 points, but he was scoring at a 0.43ppg pace.

 

[avsfan09]

He wasn't on pace for 43 points, but he was scoring at a 0.43ppg pace.

I'm an idiot...

 

[John Mandalorian]

How much of a difference would it make if he played on a line with Soderberg?

 

[henchman21]

How much of a difference would it make if he played on a line with Soderberg?

Considering he has played with Kerfoot and Compher, I doubt much of a difference.

 

[AvsCOL]

The only issue I have with Jost now is that I wish he'd use his great shot a little more. He's playing better than his stats would suggest, but I'd like to see him shooting 3-4 times a game for sure. His wrister is sneaky good.

 

[Geordie]

Its definitely not his linemates. He has been moved around in every effort to try and find chemistry and has not exactly stood out. Minutes is an easy scapegoat but his bed was made for him in that sense by not really producing (and not getting much of a chance). The main issue with Jost was his path to the NHL. He was thrown on to the worst team in recent history right out of college with no pro experience to speak of. What could that have possibly accomplished? The fact that he bounced back and put up 22 points in 2/3 of the following season is admirable and I think everyone seems to have forgotten his age. There are drafted/signed players in the CHL older than Tyson and he has a full pro season under his belt. He needs some time to settle, and I think that is beginning to happen but Colorado's bottom six, even in its recent success, seems to be a revolving door and I think that will need to change if they expect a jump in chemistry.

 

[JLo217]

I used to defend him but i'm not sure he's really got it. He just doesn't look like a fit on the Avs.

 

[shadow1]

Jost's two way game is significantly better than last year, and he's a lot bigger and stronger on the puck.

The offense isn't there yet, but the kid is 20.

 

[Geordie]

I used to defend him but i'm not sure he's really got it. He just doesn't look like a fit on the Avs.

Yeah but with all due respect, no-one outside Soderberg looks like a good fit in our bottom six lol

 

[BobRossColton]

What could've been..., I'm probably not alone in thinking he should've done two years.

 

[CB Joe]

This thread reminds me of the "MacKinnon's not a center" and "MacKinnon's not an elite player" threads from a year and a half ago.

Young forwards don't usually break out until their 4th year. Jost in 1.5 years into his career. The impatience around here is astounding.

 

[Foppa2118]

Love this thread. Jost has 5-8 good games in a row. Then a couple so so games, and it's back to ragging on him. He's still 20 people.

At 20 Compher was in his final year at Michigan, Kerfoot was in his 2nd of 4 years at Harvard, Mikko was a rookie in the NHL on his was to a 38 point season, and MacKinnon was a part time winger on his way to a 52 point season.

The moral of the story is don't make projections on position and ability based on what you see from 20 year olds.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Love this thread. Jost has 5-8 good games in a row. Then a couple so so games, and it's back to ragging on him. He's still 20 people.

At 20 Compher was in his final year at Michigan, Kerfoot was in his 2nd of 4 years at Harvard, Mikko was a rookie in the NHL on his was to a 38 point season, and MacKinnon was a part time winger on his way to a 52 point season.

The moral of the story is don't make projections on position and ability based on what you see from 20 year olds.

He’s only one person, not 20.

 

[henchman21]

This thread reminds me of the "MacKinnon's not a center" and "MacKinnon's not an elite player" threads from a year and a half ago.

Young forwards don't usually break out until their 4th year. Jost in 1.5 years into his career. The impatience around here is astounding.

Mack's stemmed from the frustration of his game not breaking out. He was already producing at a half step below a first liner, it just wasn't clicking to point where people thought he'd break out. Still with those struggles, MacK PPG average was 56 points over 82 games, and that was 3 of 4 seasons playing mostly center. To me, MacK was still clearly going to be a center, but he needed to break out quickly to ease concerns.

The young forwards breaking out in their 4th year is kind of a myth at this point. Forwards actually tend to PEAK at 22-33-24-25 offensively (defensively lags a year or two), but by 20-21 they are normally pretty close to their peak and actually pretty close to what they will average in their late 20s (20 is a bit below, 21 is over). Every player is different, and Jost certainly deserves more time... but this is right around the age where concerns start propping up. He's got a season or two before there are real concerns, but you want to see a bit stronger trend start to emerge as the season goes on.

To me, 21 is a pretty key year where you want to see a breakout... that doesn't mean give up on a player if they don't, but it is a key year. At 21 Rantanen scored 84 points. MacK had a disappointing 53 point season (but had a pretty promising end to his season with Ghetto and Rants). Landy had his 26 goal, 55 point season at mostly 21 (started at 20 and turned 21 during the season). ROR broke out at 20 that caused his hold out. There are certainly many exceptions throughout the years... but that is a key year IMO.

 

[CB Joe]

Mack's stemmed from the frustration of his game not breaking out. He was already producing at a half step below a first liner, it just wasn't clicking to point where people thought he'd break out. Still with those struggles, MacK PPG average was 56 points over 82 games, and that was 3 of 4 seasons playing mostly center. To me, MacK was still clearly going to be a center, but he needed to break out quickly to ease concerns.

The young forwards breaking out in their 4th year is kind of a myth at this point. Forwards actually tend to PEAK at 22-33-24-25 offensively (defensively lags a year or two), but by 20-21 they are normally pretty close to their peak and actually pretty close to what they will average in their late 20s (20 is a bit below, 21 is over). Every player is different, and Jost certainly deserves more time... but this is right around the age where concerns start propping up. He's got a season or two before there are real concerns, but you want to see a bit stronger trend start to emerge as the season goes on.

To me, 21 is a pretty key year where you want to see a breakout... that doesn't mean give up on a player if they don't, but it is a key year. At 21 Rantanen scored 84 points. MacK had a disappointing 53 point season (but had a pretty promising end to his season with Ghetto and Rants). Landy had his 26 goal, 55 point season at mostly 21 (started at 20 and turned 21 during the season). ROR broke out at 20 that caused his hold out. There are certainly many exceptions throughout the years... but that is a key year IMO.

The majority of posters seriosly questioned if MacKinnon would ever be an elite player or ppg player and questioned if he could play center. It's not to difficult to go back two years on the board and look at the old threads.

Maybe elite players are breaking out earlier but I think most forwards don't have that breakout year until year 3 or 4 and really establish themselves. I don't see anything unusual about Jost's game that would cause major concern given his age and experience.

Avs fans have been spoiled but the quick and successful development of their young forwards in recent years and I think some fans are using that as an unfair benchmark for all forwards that follow.

 

[henchman21]

The majority of posters seriosly questioned if MacKinnon would ever be an elite player or ppg player and questioned if he could play center. It's not to difficult to go back two years on the board and look at the old threads.

Maybe elite players are breaking out earlier but I think most forwards don't have that breakout year until year 3 or 4 and really establish themselves. I don't see anything unusual about Jost's game that would cause major concern given his age and experience.

Avs fans have been spoiled but the quick and successful development of their young forwards in recent years and I think some fans are using that as an unfair benchmark for all forwards that follow.

I'm aware most did judge MacK on that... and in MacK's case he fully broke out at 22, but had a few signs at 21.

There are numerous studies on this... that is ALL forwards (and even nearing that way with defensemen). The average peak is 22 to 25 with 21-27/28 being prime years. That isn't to say that Jost won't break out in years 3-4-5, but that is after the average player.

 

[5280]

Love this thread. Jost has 5-8 good games in a row. Then a couple so so games, and it's back to ragging on him. He's still 20 people.

At 20 Compher was in his final year at Michigan, Kerfoot was in his 2nd of 4 years at Harvard, Mikko was a rookie in the NHL on his was to a 38 point season, and MacKinnon was a part time winger on his way to a 52 point season.

The moral of the story is don't make projections on position and ability based on what you see from 20 year olds.

Yeah, he's still a baby, really.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Jost has shown me enough so far that I am perfectly happy with giving him the rest of the year and half of next year before thinking of trading him. Of course if there is a very good trade out there involving him to push us over the top then go for it but until then let's see what we really have in him. At the very least I think we have a very good 3rd line player.

 

[BKarchitect]

Jost will be fine. He’s just a depth piece now but we can be patient with him. People love to complain that we could have had McAvoy or Chychrun - that’s pretty narrow-minded. Here’s also who we could have had:

#11: Logan Brown - Not an NHL player yet. Trying to establish himself in AHL with 5 points in 9 games.

#12: Michael McLeod - Not an NHL player yet. 3 goals in 22 AHL games.

#13: Jake Bean - Not an NHL player yet. 12 points in 23 AHL games and would have been blown by Girard and Makar as OFD prospect.

#14: McAvoy

#15: Luke Kunin - Severely injured. Could be an NHL depth piece otherwise. Hard to argue he’s any better than Jost regardless.

#16: Chychrn

#17: Dante Fabbro - Still considered a hot property basically because he’s still in college and he’s a Preds defensive prospect. Good prospect, nothing more at this point. We got the right guy back from Nashville’s 2016 draft in the Duchene trade.

Rest of first round: Nobody outside Howden has shown anything as good or better than Jost yet. Borgstrom is exciting but let’s see something at the NHL level. Steel has upside but strikes me as a Jost level young player at best.

Second rounder tracking better than Jost? Girard and DeBrincat. That’s the list.

Sure, you can argue outside the top, this was a weak draft. No arguments. But if you actually look at the progress of his peers, there’s nothing that should be alarming or cause us depression about the pick of Jost or where he is at in his young career. Pining for McAvoy is stupid. Every team’s fans can play that game every single draft.

 

[Pokecheque]

He really needs to get more confidence in his shot. He's either taking too long to let 'er rip or deferring to linemates with the pass. Give Kamenev credit where he just sends bombs at the net every chance he gets.

Dries is another guy who just plain shoots no matter what, and his shot is really not terribly powerful.