TSN McKenzie's Top 15 Rankings, NHL Draft Lottery Edition

[WarriorofTime]

"Yeah sorry Geno, you're only at 45% for career faceoffs so despite your entire Art Ross, Conn Smythe, Hart-winning skillset saying otherwise, you should probably get moved to wing."

Not sure what your sarcasm is meant to convey. Do players become incapable of producing offense if they are moved to wing?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Except it doesn't say that, it's a 3 year trend weighed down by his below average finishing in 20-21. As he heals and goes into next year I'm sure it'll adjust to reflect that.

What it doesn't show is blocked shots or faceoff % which is what I assume your claim of him being "atrocious defensively" is based on.

My claim is based on watching a ton of Devils games because Hughes is one of my favorite players in the league.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Not sure what your sarcasm is meant to convey. Do players become incapable of producing offense if they are moved to wing?

Would you have moved Evgeni Malkin to the wing because he's bad at faceoffs? Do you really believe that would be a better use of his skillset?

My claim is based on watching a ton of Devils games because Hughes is one of my favorite players in the league.

Well since our eye tests differ on that (though he was worse defensively this year, likely because of the injury) the advanced stats should probably be brought into the equation, no?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Would you have moved Evgeni Malkin to the wing because he's bad at faceoffs? Do you really believe that would be a better use of his skillset?

Not playing some 'gotcha' game. Words like 'probably' have weight.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Would you have moved Evgeni Malkin to the wing because he's bad at faceoffs? Do you really believe that would be a better use of his skillset?


Well since our eye tests differ on that (though he was worse defensively this year, likely because of the injury) the advanced stats should probably be brought into the equation, no?

Calling a JFresh card “the advanced stats” is crazy to me. Do you even know how that stuff is measured? I have never seen a clear breakdown of their methodology. Moreover, I don’t think the defensive impact of a single player can be distilled and measured purely in numbers.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Want nothing to do with Helenius.

Which likely means the Flyers pick him.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Not playing some 'gotcha' game. Words like 'probably' have weight.

So I shouldn't draw a comparison to another uber talented centerman who wasn't moved to the wing despite his poor faceoff numbers?

 

[WarriorofTime]

So I shouldn't draw a comparison to another uber talented centerman who wasn't moved to the wing despite his poor faceoff numbers?

You engaged in bad faith "gotcha" antics

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

You engaged in bad faith "gotcha" antics

How is that bad faith and how is that a gotcha? Much like Malkin, Hughes' skillset works best as a centerman despite his poor faceoff numbers.

 

[WarriorofTime]

How is that bad faith and how is that a gotcha? Much like Malkin, Hughes' skillset works best as a centerman despite his poor faceoff numbers.

Debate the original point, not making some sarcastic comment about Malkin.

 

[Castle8130]

This draft is looking like it will be a disaster for some and a gift to others. Absolutely no consensus. If Parekh or Buium slide outside the top 8 and they become as good as I think they will be, the lucky franchises that get them will be over the moon. What a draft!

It does look like an overwhelming majority have Levshunov, Silayev, and Demidov in the top 5. So if you're looking for a faller in the 8+ range, I doubt it's one of them

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Debate the original point, not making some sarcastic comment about Malkin.

Okay great. Hughes should not be moved to wing just because of poor faceoffs (which are a massively overrated and unimpactful skill) when his skillset is so much more useful as a centerman.

As an example, Malkin would have been moved to the wing by that logic because of his terrible faceoffs, even though he was able to win 2 Art Ross's, a Smythe, and a Hart with those poor faceoff skills.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I think the top-5 will be Celebrini, Demidov, Levshunov, Silayev, and either Lindstrom or Dickinson depending who ends up where.

As a sharks fan who just watched this awful team finish dead last I'm terrified of the uncertainty if we end up 2nd or 3rd overall. This is the type of draft that can blow up awfully in your face due to the lack of consensus rankings...definitely cannot afford to mess up this pick after being so bad.

 

[coooldude]

Here's the top 5 scout votes distribution (should be 100% accurate based on the commentary in the article), and a guess at 6-10 based on the commentary in the article, and the end rankings.

• Lev slightly more polarizing than Silayev
• Parekh more polarizing than Dickinson, otherwise he would be 6 and Dickinson 7
• Likely few scouts have Catton in the top 10 (there's possibly more disagreement and ranking all these guys 6-15, but the article specifically said the 11-15's earned their spots there)
• 3 out of 10 scouts have Eiserman 6-10 but that means that the rest of them have him far lower, if he ended up at 13
• Sennecke likely similar spread to Eiserman, although he had one 5OA vote.
• Based on the commentary, possible that Connelly had zero top 10 votes.
• Based on commentary, Yakemchuk also polarizing with 2 votes for 4/5OA but possibly/likely not many others in the top 10, I could be wrong on this one, not enough info in the writeup.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Seems to be a bit of a disconnect with McKenzie's 10 Scout List and the independent mock drafters on Silayev.

 

[forever1922]

I don't have issues with the list. I have Silayev, Parekh and Yakemchuk lower by a couple spots each. I'm sure position plays a big role in the ranking vs all the wingers.

I suspect teams who find talents this draft count themselves lucky. It's very shaky at the top, and the more complete, lower upside guys are plentiful late in the 1st round.

It would not be a suprise if Connelly became the second best forward of the draft. Catton to me is appropriately ranked and the ranking shadows his NHL projection, which sadly is not in line with his talent and junior production.

 

[majormajor]

"Yeah sorry Geno, you're only at 45% for career faceoffs so despite your entire Art Ross, Conn Smythe, Hart-winning skillset saying otherwise, you should probably get moved to wing."

You're kind of proving a point I have about this center discussion - that folks have a needless fixation on putting the best player at center.

You're saying that Geno is a great player and therefore he should be at center. Being at center should be just about center specific attributes - notably defending down low, starting breakouts low, winning faceoffs. There's nothing wrong with putting the best player at wing, it's not a punishment or a downgrade.

As for Jack Hughes, he's effectively spent much of his career with Erik Haula and others doing much of the center duties for him, even though Hughes is always labeled the center. Perhaps Hughes has it figured out now though, I don't know. People are very obsessed with who is at center, but seemingly mostly obsessed with who is labeled center, and less interested in who is actually doing center things.

Coming back to Catton - someone can correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Catton say he sees himself on the wing? He has a hard time down low defending vs players his own size so putting him in that position in the NHL seems foolish. If he's a center it will likely be a J Hughes type situation where someone else is doing the defending for him, at least for several years. And there's nothing wrong with that, you can have the best offensive player on the wing, there's little lost in doing that. And perhaps something gained, it would save him a lot of energy, Catton wouldn't look as tired.

 

[Juxtaposer]

You're kind of proving a point I have about this center discussion - that folks have a needless fixation on putting the best player at center.

You're saying that Geno is a great player and therefore he should be at center. Being at center should be just about center specific attributes - notably defending down low, starting breakouts low, winning faceoffs. There's nothing wrong with putting the best player at wing, it's not a punishment or a downgrade.

As for Jack Hughes, he's effectively spent much of his career with Erik Haula and others doing much of the center duties for him, even though Hughes is always labeled the center. Perhaps Hughes has it figured out now though, I don't know. People are very obsessed with who is at center, but seemingly mostly obsessed with who is labeled center, and less interested in who is actually doing center things.

Coming back to Catton - someone can correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Catton say he sees himself on the wing? He has a hard time down low defending vs players his own size so putting him in that position in the NHL seems foolish. If he's a center it will likely be a J Hughes type situation where someone else is doing the defending for him, at least for several years. And there's nothing wrong with that, you can have the best offensive player on the wing, there's little lost in doing that. And perhaps something gained, it would save him a lot of energy, Catton wouldn't look as tired.

I swear I saw that too but couldn’t cite my source so I left it out. I’m sure I read an interview where Catton specifically says he thinks he’s a winger in the NHL.

To close the loop on center vs. winger: I don’t think it matters all that much offensively (definitely the league is trending towards positionless hockey in the offensive zone) but it definitely matters in the defensive zone.

 

[majormajor]

Okay great. Hughes should not be moved to wing just because of poor faceoffs (which are a massively overrated and unimpactful skill) when his skillset is so much more useful as a centerman.

I would say Hughes' skillset advantage starts from the defending blueline forward. He is a great transition player and he would still be fantastic at it if he was taking a pass at the blueline and starting the rush from there. That's basically where Panarin, Kaprizov, etc.. do it, those guys are among the top transition players in the league, Hughes can be the faster version of that.

And a lot of folks don't know this but for many years Landeskog was the down low guy and Mackinnon would swoop down from the wing position to start the breakout. Basically a curling breakout but starting from the wing rather than the curling breakout from the lower center position. But Mackinnon was still listed as the center, so it didn't come up here.

I don’t think it matters all that much offensively (definitely the league is trending towards positionless hockey in the offensive zone) but it definitely matters in the defensive zone.

Exactly. It doesn't mean much offensively at all.

 

[Forge]

Yet.

Hughes has played on the wing at times and Bedard may move to wing if the Hawks get another top-tier center prospect. I personally wouldn’t really be confident with either as a center. They’re both atrocious defensively in the NHL.

Hughes has historically struggled on the wing compared to his play at center, especially early on. They've also never shown any real indication that's what they want to do with him.

I wouldn't call Hughes atrocious defensively. I would agree that there are certain aspects of a defensive game he's not good at, but he does solid work in transition, creating turnovers, etc. He's just not a well rounded defensive player

 

[HuGo Sham]

Iggy at 10 and Yakemchuk at 12 make Calgary's pick reeealllll interesting.

If Lindstrom goes in the top 4, I think habs draft Iginla.
Hughes said in his end of season presser habs were taking a forward and apparently they've met with Iginla on at least 4 occasions.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Seems to be a bit of a disconnect with McKenzie's 10 Scout List and the independent mock drafters on Silayev.

NHL scouts actually look at what's going to work at the NHL level.

Anton Silayev has unicorn potential.

Independent sites get too caught up in their spreadsheets.

 

[ORRFForever]

The first round : Canadian kids as far as the eye can see !

I hope Trevor Connelly's stock rises. I've become very fond of him is recent days.

"The U.S. U-18 national team development program forward has seen his stock plummet throughout the season — he dropped 10 spots from the mid-season ranking" - that's what Cole Eiserman does.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

What’s wrong with his game? He looks like a star with no real weakness other than slightly mediocre size.

His size isn't "slightly mediocre". He's pretty far below average, both in height and even more so in weight. May be real concerns that he has the type of slight frame that just won't ever be able to add much helpful mass. Too skilled to be passed up for too long though.

 

[ORRFForever]

the type of slight frame that just won't ever be able to add much helpful mass

Hard to believe there is such a thing in today's day and age.