True Realism

[Cams]

You have to remember there are other factors too. Gaudreau for example.......his father had a health scare, plus his wife is American, so family likely was a big (if not the main) reason he left. Taxes are a big deal. As mentioned, so is the recognition factor. I think it was Joe Thornton who said he could go to dinner, go to the store, etc. in the San Jose area and nobody knew who he was. Media is important to some probably too. Once you have a family, again a lot will depend on where your wife is from, your/her family, etc. re: Stamkos - I believe I read that his girlfriend/wife was from the Tampa area so that helped sway his decision. I wouldn't want my kids in school in the US, and there are a lot of players who feel that way too that aren't American. Nik Lidstrom took his family back to Sweden as soon as he retired so his kids could go to school in Sweden, instead of the US.

Also the "American Dream" is a big think for people wanting to go there from all over the world......most of the big celebrities are American and/or move to LA/NY. Is the US it's sink or swim for the average person...if you can make money you are fine, but if not they don't care about you. A lot of people of other countries don't like Americans, plus with how crazy their gun/crime situation and political division.....not sure how much of a factor this would be to a pro athlete, but it probably is a lot bigger of a deal for a non-American athlete.

I know personally, I'd play wherever, but I'd be on the first plane, or car ride home to southern Ontario in the offseason. The US is not very high on my list of places I'd want to live/retire in.

 

[kellmuff96]

lol unless Seravalli has heard that from Matthews/his agent, that quote doesnt mean anything.

another early playoff exit next year and buckle the F up

 

[All Mod Cons]

One question towards Dubas haters, if keeping Shanahan / Dubas means that we can surely keep Matthews could you eat the pain and frustration?

There is interesting times coming next summer if Shanny / Dubas has Matthews contract negotiated before hand and then we change regime. Will Matthews sign in turbulence or will he look elsewhere.

To me: keeping Matthews > changing GM in near future.

In this scenario, what does the Matthews contract look like?

 

[ACC1224]

One question towards Dubas haters, if keeping Shanahan / Dubas means that we can surely keep Matthews could you eat the pain and frustration?

There is interesting times coming next summer if Shanny / Dubas has Matthews contract negotiated before hand and then we change regime. Will Matthews sign in turbulence or will he look elsewhere.

To me: keeping Matthews > changing GM in near future.

People don't hate the GM they hate losing. Matthews staying is a must whoever the GM is.
Would Dubas lovers be ok with Matthews leaving if it meant Dubas stays?

 

[613Leafer]

What pending UFAs have we had walk that we actually wanted to keep (and had the $$ to pay them) in the last ~10 years? I can't really think of anyone.

I certainly think some players would have zero interest in playing in the Toronto fish bowl market, but generally speaking, I think the Leafs do better than most teams at convincing players to stay, attracting players to the team (especially undrafted UFAs), etc.

I think the small market colder Canadian cities like Ottawa, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Calgary suffer from those problems a lot more than Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Back in the day there was a rumor that TO offered Stamkos 13 plus mil. per year , he eventually settled for $8.5 mil. with TB, that's around a 5 mil. $ difference, that didn't entice Stamkos who is a Markham boy. TO also promised him added revenue for advertising $s with Cdn Tire and others, again rumored, that $20 mil. per year was the ultimate figure.

Gaudreau was offered more money by Calgary than Columbus, Calgary is/was a very good team, Columbus not so good, yet Gaudreau wanted out. Now Tkachuk wants out and I think we can bet he doesn't want to stay in Canada, I'd bet he wants to return to St.L. or maybe even Arizona, he'd willingly take a hair cut to do so.

So what, most players of any quality have contracts early in their careers with modified NMC and generally there is a 10 team list that they submit that names the teams they don't want to go to, usually/normally the 7 Canadian teams are on those lists, Kadri had Calgary on his and he was playing for a Cdn. team.

It seems that generally both Canadians and Americans aren't happy playing for a Canadian team, what might this mean for TO, Matthews, Marner, Nylander get a bit of a thrashing from the Cdn. media and fan bases, in 1 to 2 years they will be able to go/do whatever they want, where ever they want. At the very least I'd expect Matthews to sign below the border.

How should a GM react in Canada, knowing this, keep the players until their contracts expire, like Calgary did with Gaudreau, or trade those players away while they can for asset(s), even tho their competitive edge would also be traded away.

It's tough being a Canadian GM and even tougher being a fan of a Canadian NHL team. It'll be 30 years since the last Canadian team won a Cup, I wonder how many more before the next Canadian champion?

I don't care for this thread title.

Realism is an art movement. Its' definition does not fit the theme of this offseason.

The Johnny Hockey/Tkachuk thing is isolated to 1 Canadian team and not all Canadian teams.

The way Calgary fans got butthurt on this and turned into a reflection of their insecurities is hilarious. They actually turned one UFA exercising their freedom into a national crisis in which the government should get involved.

Does anyone remember Sundin's last days in Toronto? He was asked by Fletcher to waive his NTC in order to improve the team. He wouldn't waive them. That's fine. That was his right to do so. He goes into retirement, but then later into the next season joins vancouver. Why did he do so? Answer: freedom. He wanted to see if he could help VAN win a cup. I remember some fans being angry about him playing there, and other fans were happy for him.

Maybe my comparison is not appropriate to what is going on in CGY, but hockey fans have to realize that this doesn't happen very often. Many players end up playing most of their career with the team they got drafted by.

Does anyone remember when Lindros refused to play for Quebec? That was a long time ago, and I can't think of too many players doing what Tkachuk is doing now.

 

[deprw]

In this scenario, what does the Matthews contract look like?

Let's say he has understanding that he can't milk it to the end, if he wants to win, so it's fair for the Maple Leafs. If he takes lets say 2 or 2.5 million more max term.

People don't hate the GM they hate losing. Matthews staying is a must whoever the GM is.
Would Dubas lovers be ok with Matthews leaving if it meant Dubas stays?

If we lose Matthews and/or Marner without our consent I think it's not looking good on Shanahan or Dubas and we'd probably would need to make changes. If player pulls all out Gaudreau I think it might be debatable, but I'd say that we have to cover our bases next summer and summer after that. Matthews is a player you sign on first day of eligibility. I think it's about status as well.

I think there is lot of push and pressure on Dubas, which is mostly fair at the moment, but I don't like the tone or arguments that much.

Would we watch two more possible failures, if it means that we can keep Matthews and Marner. That was the question. In general I think if we can keep Matthews and Marner we can contend next decade.

 

[ITM]

The Lindros scenario won't work for us with Matthews - trade for Lindros and you'd have his rights for a number of years which is not the case with Matthews.

Of course management will do whatever they can do entice Matthews to stay, but there's nothing they do to ensure it.

What type of management is willful neglect? Allowing a player to leave when there's absolutely nothing they can do stop him. You're not making sense.

What type of management is willful neglect? I think the question is best addressed on a case by case basis, but willful neglect is having practical external levers of control and not using due to self-imposed internal controls.

It would be a kind of unknown PR nightmare for the club if Matthews was traded or allowed to walk. It'll be less of a nightmare if he commands $15M a season, but it will come with endless criticism. So by self-imposed controls, in this (Matthews) instance, willful neglect means: Allowing a mid-20s Matthews to negatively affect the future of our club.

If he's not signed before his access to control kicks in (Has it already?), then what management would have done would have been to decline the opportunity to maximize Matthews' imminent departing value; Eric Lindros departing value doesn't have to be the example, it's merely an example of what to do when a player of profound value decides he's playing elsewhere. Substitute Erik Karlsson if you like: Josh Norris and Tim Stutzle may not be the ultimate return, but it has become foundational for this now reemerging Senators club.

If you find Karlsson's particular situation incomparable as well, substitute any situation but keep the idea that when management has a player of preeminent value, allowing that asset to walk away for nothing when the option to maximize exists - however tenuous the window - is negligent. Was there a window in which Calgary could have signed Gaudreau? Is there a window in which Toronto can trade any one of Matthews, Marner and Nylander?

If management has a window - however tenuous the window - in which to secure assets and doesn't under any number of explanations (ie honor, good faith, etc, etc...), then that is negligence.

And I use the word negligence is this sense, that where reciprocity of good faith is absent, you have an absence of interest in a mutual benefit outcome. It works both ways. If I'm the GM I present the client's agent with a default organization maxim that this is Toronto and it's a privilege to play here, that we know no one player ever dictates the success of a club without a dedicated foundation of players willing to follow the leaders of the club. And if the leaders of the club won't commit to the future of the club in a timely manner commensurate with the club's previous investment, then Toronto needs to look after it's best interest according to it's desired timeline.

That type of attitude will repel the selfish, attract the loyal and eventually ring true that there isn't and won't. be a more monumental place to win the Stanley Cup than the next one that's raised in Toronto. And I'd hammer home to Matthews' and Marner's agents that this is only going to happen once. And if on the mountain of money they've made they don't see the value in this kind of opportunity...Then we'll build a juggernaut on their departed value and their memory.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Let's say he has understanding that he can't milk it to the end, if he wants to win, so it's fair for the Maple Leafs. If he takes lets say 2 or 2.5 million more max term.


If we lose Matthews and/or Marner without our consent I think it's not looking good on Shanahan or Dubas and we'd probably would need to make changes. If player pulls all out Gaudreau I think it might be debatable, but I'd say that we have to cover our bases next summer and summer after that. Matthews is a player you sign on first day of eligibility. I think it's about status as well.

I think there is lot of push and pressure on Dubas, which is mostly fair at the moment, but I don't like the tone or arguments that much.

Would we watch two more possible failures, if it means that we can keep Matthews and Marner. That was the question. In general I think if we can keep Matthews and Marner we can contend next decade.

It's a hard one, because on one hand we'll have Matthews and a GM that hasn't a clue how to properly assemble a team. And on the other hand we'd have no Matthews, but the opportunity to have a GM that knows to assemble a team.

Interestingly, every team that has won the Cup in the salary cap era (most likely beyond that as well) have never had Auston Matthews on that team.

So, is the idea of keeping Matthews more important than building a Stanley Cup contender (not a regular season contender)? I don't know.

 

[Mess]

True realism would be to recognize how vital it was to get Auston Matthews a home grown generational franchise drafted and developed #1C player and perhaps the best Leaf player of all time locked up to a maximum 8 years coming out of his contract guaranteeing an additional 3 years of service and at a much better cap cost. Every other contract a secondary concern and priority as it all begins and ends with Auston.

Everyone that understands the Salary Cap and how C.H.% works, would also know that the higher the C.H% is the more UFA years a player must be willing to surrender to the team to obtain it, because its those costly UFA eligible years that the team is buying, not the cost controllable RFA that drive up the contract price and offset the higher priced years bring down the AAV over the longer term based on averaging cost throughout.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Who? Apart from Chabot, who is barely a star

Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, basically as one up comes up for renewal, they renew them. Giroux not long term, but signed.

 

[Mess]

Let's say he has understanding that he can't milk it to the end, if he wants to win, so it's fair for the Maple Leafs. If he takes lets say 2 or 2.5 million more max term.

Would you say it would be true realism to expect Matthews to take a small increase off current and based on your example of $13-13.5 mil AAV home team discount to stay, when there will be multiple teams lining up offering $15.5 (or more) X 7 years to come join them? He would be leaving a lot of potential earnings in the millions on the cutting room floor.

What if those teams are based in his own home country America, and what if they're in low to zero income tax zones, or closer to his family in say Vegas or California?

Johnny Hockey Gaudreau going home to USA and Matt Tkachuk looking to return home might already be setting the stage for what might happen in Toronto over the next few years.

As far a true realism goes the best thing the Leafs can do to increase their odds of a discount or AM staying in a foreign country is to win the Cup and have success. The odds are even less of keeping him long-term without it because "Winning" is often high on a players list of priorities.

Keeping a winning team together is easier then keeping a losing team together, if winning is a priority to the player.

Another 1st round loss for the Leafs this coming year would run Matthews record up to 0-7 in Toronto entering his final year.

 

[deprw]

Would you say it would be true realism to expect Matthews to take a small increase off current and based on your example of $13-13.5 mil AAV home team discount to stay, when there will be multiple teams lining up offering $15.5 (or more) X 7 years to come join them? He would be leaving a lot of potential earnings in the millions on the cutting room floor.

What if those teams are based in his own home country America, and what if they're in low to zero income tax zones, or closer to his family in say Vegas or California?

Johnny Hockey Gaudreau going home to USA and Matt Tkachuk looking to return home might already be setting the stage for what might happen in Toronto over the next few years.

As far a true realism goes the best thing the Leafs can do to increase their odds of a discount or AM staying in a foreign country is to win the Cup and have success. The odds are even less of keeping him long-term without it because "Winning" is often high on a players list of priorities.

Keeping a winning team together is easier then keeping a losing team together, if winning is a priority to the player.

Matthews lives half of the year in Arizona, so he probably already takes home some sort of tax advantage of living in state with no income tax. I don't think taxation is that big of a deal with Matthews. I think problem lies on Marner, if we think about taxes.

I wouldn't talk about any realism, if we assume that Matthews leaves. Even Gaudreau wasn't on the stature Matthews on this organization and those kind of players rarely leave. Tavares was only example and he left only because that organization was in shambles all those years he was there (I assume).

When we offer him that 8th year and front load it, there is no organization that can out do that.

 

[therealkoho]

I really don't understand all this "better lifestyle" talk when it comes to the USA? Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto are all world class cities.

While there are some individual states that do have obvious advantages tax wise, most places are really no different than Canada, once an accountant gets finished jumping through all available loopholes. For American players maintaining US home addresses than taxes need to be filed in both countries, if they don't like that there is a simple solution, make the principle residence Canada,apply for landed immigrant status, and than go back to the US at the end of your career.

There are pluses and minuses no matter where you live and certainly both countries have there charms, but the US is not the end all and be all.

Then again I've never been a guy who believes in the "exceptionalism" myth and I’ve always been wary of over zealous patriotism whether it's here or there!

Next summer is the deadline to sign Matthews, if he says the right things but refuses to sign until he hits UFA, then you trade him immediately. You’ve already squandered the cupboard for the most part, if you let him walk for nothing, then you’ve screwed the franchise for a long time. Ditto for Bill.

Totally agree

 

[Golden_Jet]

Matthews lives half of the year in Arizona, so he probably already takes home some sort of tax advantage of living in state with no income tax. I don't think taxation is that big of a deal with Matthews. I think problem lies on Marner, if we think about taxes.

I wouldn't talk about any realism, if we assume that Matthews leaves. Even Gaudreau wasn't on the stature Matthews on this organization and those kind of players rarely leave. Tavares was only example and he left only because that organization was in shambles all those years he was there (I assume).

When we offer him that 8th year and front load it, there is no organization that can out do that.

Front loaded the last contract and got 95% of salary in bonus money, to save taxes and still only got 5 year deal.
But if he’s happy there he’ll reup.

 

[leafsfan5]

Oh if Frank Seravalli says not to worry about it. You guys can't be serious.

This isn't some no name person lol, Seravalli is the top insider in the game

Is it a 100% guarantee he stays? No, things can obviously change. But if the top insider is saying he'll stay with that degree of confidence it's a good sign

 

[Dave92]

I didn't hear anything about us offering Stamkos 13 million. I think I heard that SJ offered Tavares 13 but he signed here for less instead.

Last big money guys we had that were approaching UFA status were Kessel and Phaneuf, both were not only getting grief from the fans but they were on a crappy team as well. They both chose to stay here.

Some of you guys worry way too much. If it happens, it happens but there are plenty of reasons for M&M to stay like we are a top contender, look to be a top contender for years to come and they get to play together. Not many places (if any) can offer them that.

Nylander's another story but that has nothing to do with this being a Canadian team.

Was good going to say this. The 13 wasn Tavares not Stamkos

 

[deprw]

Front loaded the last contract and got 95% of salary in bonus money, to save taxes and still only got 5 year deal.
But if he’s happy there he’ll reup.

If he reup, it was good that we signed that 5 year contract, since 8 year would have meant higher average and Marner would have demanded more. This only because of this flat cap. Matthews and Marner contracts are the worst failure during Dubas tenure.

Though Matthews really had real threat getting good offer sheet and it was necessity that we signed either one of your young superstars before that. Marner wouldn't negotiate, so it was Matthews or nothing.

Easy to say with hindsight, that we should have given overpayment to both year before.

 

[notbias]

lol unless Seravalli has heard that from Matthews/his agent, that quote doesnt mean anything.

another early playoff exit next year and buckle the F up

Yes, let's believe some nameless loser instead of an insider

Matthews' comments on being patient to Knies tells me more than any of this though, I believe his intentions are to stay.

 

[kevsh]

Better weather, taxes, and lifestyle in the US.

2 of those 3 are highly debatable these days (taxes being the exception).

America is in a free fall right now. Not just political, cultural turmoil but extreme weather, the mass shootings, Roe v Wade and Republicans looking to curb more "social advances". (Not trying to get political here, don't care which side of the argument people are on in this, it's a big deal in the U.S.).

Having spent considerable time in both countries, the taxes savings and a few states with warmer weather year-round don't come close to offsetting the negatives. Though I do appreciate that for many American-born players simply returning home is a big draw and the rest are mostly secondary considerations.

 

[TheProspector]

Tavares left $14M on the table to come home. When Toronto was going after Stamkos, the franchise sucked.

 

[New User Name]

Tavares left $14M on the table to come home. When Toronto was going after Stamkos, the franchise sucked.

Johns wife was starting a business up that's why he came home.

Auston very well could leave money on the table too if he wants to go home.

If I'm Dubas, we start talking to Matthews agent ASAP to get an agreement that he re-signs as of July 1 2023. (if that is allowed and legally binding)
If I'm not mistaken the extension can only be signed on or after July 1, 2023.

Coincidentally his NMC is effective July 1 2023.

If we can't get him to agree to an extension prior to July 1, 2023, that would be, at least to me, an indication that he doesn't want to stay.

The smart thing then, would be to shop him prior to July 1, 2023.

Let's not make the same mistake as the Islanders and Flames did.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I didn't realize Murray is undefeated in Game 7s.

 

[TheRumble]

Everyone here needs to take a page out of Masai Ujiri's book. Have some pride in Toronto.

Comparing us to the likes of Calgary and Winnipeg is honestly an insult. Those are okay cities but especially with Calgary the main appeal of cities out west like the mountains and national parks which are outside the city. As cities go they don't offer much for the ultra wealthy. Toronto does.

I've lived abroad and in multiple Canadian provinces and if anything, Torontonians are far too humble and reserved about how great the city is. A typical day for me I get off work, bike to the beach chill for a few hours, head to my favourite gym to some some Jiu jitsu with Canada's best grapplers, find a patio and get some great food and then head home, stop by the library to pick up some books, go to a coffee shop to read a bit and enjoy some exotic coffee and then go to bed. That's the type lifestyle you won't find in other Canadian cities. Yeah I can't ski in the rockies or camp in a national park with a view of the Pacific ocean but the trade off is my everyday lifestyle is far healthier.

 

[yubbers]

If I had the choice to move my job to the US I would in a heartbeat. Politics has gotten so it of hand you simply can't ignore it. Canada is a mess right now sadly