Trending Up? Trending Down?

[Bluesguru]

Right now it's down for sure. I know Doug is thinking about the new core going forward but you could of still had Perron for a song at 2 years. Rather have Perron for 2 years than Leddy at 4. Signing Perron wouldn't of hurt Doug's vision at all and the offense stays intact. Still a head scratcher.................

 

[cardinalnation]

Needle is pointing up and losing one forward doesn’t change that even if he was a fan favorite. No doubt the team took a hit by losing Perron so others will be expected to get better and pick up the slack. This forward group is towards the old side but there are younger players ready to step up and the Cap being steady really dictates that anyways. I was not a fan of the Saad signing for this reason. Scandella’s contract doesn’t help either. I expect Army to start the transition to the next core group this off season and I expect fans will not like some of the decisions.
The way I see it is the Blues need to be good enough to beat Colorado, no one else really matters. Our guys were probably the third or fourth best team in hockey last year and it still wasn’t good enough. Army needs to figure out a way to compete with that forward group in the entire avalanche team. They are going to take some hits also but I have no doubt they will be in the run for the Stanley Cup again next year. All roads probably lead through them. It’s going to take a fast, in your face forward group to beat Colorado and a solid defense too. Armstrong is trying to get us there. Still a lot of time left.

 

[Xanadude]

If it's a goals-in, goals-out thing, then yeah I think we trended 'down' after FA day one. I'm still very bullish on us being a top 3 team in the West and I think most people here reading this also think a healthy Binnington and Krug could very well have had us beat the eventual cup champs (who pushed in the poo of everyone else they faced, ftr).

Right now we're overloaded on NHL-caliber defensemen and are hoping for Neighbors to be able and slot into the top 9. Flip one of those defenseman into a top 9 forward and, even though it won't make up for Perron, we're still a legitmate cup contender.

 

[Brian39]

Colorado took bigger step back.

The top of the West as a whole has taken a step back.

The Wild took a bigger hit on paper than we did. Fiala is undoubtedly a better player than Perron and he was lost for pure futures. They lost a couple decent depth guys, have added nothing and we have gained zero clarity on Kaprizov's location or immigration status. Their crease is fully in the hands of Fleury now.

Barring a huge surprise, the Avs are losing Kadri and they already lost Burakovsky. And they put their chips in net on Georgiev. Still a damn good team and they did a good job extending Nichuskin, Lehkonen and Manson. But that's a lot of production out the door and a big question mark in net.

The Flames lost a 100+ point forward and are now trying to figure out what to do with their other. Tkachuk has 100% of the leverage here and will almost certainly give them a 'take it or leave it' number on an 8 year deal. I don't see how the Flames are as good next year.

The middle of the pack took steps to improve, but I don't think they are catching the Blues yet.

I think the Avs are still the clear favorite in the West, but they became more beatable. We kept all the pieces that contained Makar and Mac in the playoffs and the secondary scoring which beat us took a hit. As of today, I view us as the 2nd best team in the Conference and the gap between us and Colorado shrunk. Binner over a full season is a question mark, but less so than Georgiev is to me.

I'm not sold that we built the best 2022/23 group we could have (even under the assumption that priority #1 was avoiding a capocalypse next summer). But I like our current chances of getting to the Final better than I did 10 months ago.

 

[simon IC]

I am leaning toward down, but like others, I am going to wait. The FA forward signings are all "meh" IMO, they are basically lateral moves that make us neither better nor worse. None of them make up for the loss of Perron, but I understand they are not meant to.

It is on defense that I have the biggest issue. I can not be convinced that a top four of Krug-Leddy-Faulk-Parayko is a championship calibre defense.

 

[Novacain]

I’ve had a problem deciding which way to vote between staying the same and decreasing, and it largely has to do with being curious how big the drop off the Blues have from the crazy high shooting percentage they posted last year that largely saved our bacon.

The Blues shooting percentage was 12.4% and that is a crazy high number. It’s the highest I can remember in the cap era, though I’d have to double check that. For perspective, league average last year was 9.3. So that means for every 100 shots the Blues put on net, 3 more went in then the average NHL team. And I will lead by saying shooting percentage isn’t a complete luck based stat, and talented scorers find ways to put the puck in the net. But the Blues were first in the league in shooting percentage by a full percentage point over second place, and it’s gonna be a hard sell that that’s sustainable.

Basically, for perspective, let’s look at the Blues goal total last year, and look at what our goal total would be with other somewhat realistic metric points. The Blues put up 2,492 shots last year, and scored 309 goals, so…

-If the Blues equaled the shooting percentage of the second highest shooting percentage, (Minnesota at 11.4) the Blues would have scored about 25 less goals, so 284 goals for to 239 against. Still a good team, but probably not finishing 2nd in the central.

-If the Blues matched the shooting percentage from the previous year (10.3 percent) the Blues put up about 50 less goals, down to 259. Now we are kind of in the middle of the pack, probably a wild card team, but maybe 3rd

-If the Blues were just league average (as stated, 9.3 percent), they would produce about 75 less goals, putting us at 234 goals for to 239 against, which is a team battling for a playoff spot.

Once more though, shooting percentage isn’t luck based, at least not completely. Honestly, Army seems to really value guys who have great shots, and that certainly helps. I honestly think the league average thing is heavily unlikely. But I do think the reality is we probably put up a shooting percentage next year in the 10.5-11% range, and if that happens, I think the idea of us as Stanley Cup Contenders with our deficiencies on D and questions in net becomes unlikely.

 

[Ranksu]

Did we have franchise history best PP% last season?

I am leaning toward down, but like others, I am going to wait. The FA forward signings are all "meh" IMO, they are basically lateral moves that make us neither better nor worse. None of them make up for the loss of Perron, but I understand they are not meant to.

It is on defense that I have the biggest issue. I can not be convinced that a top four of Krug-Leddy-Faulk-Parayko is a championship calibre defense.

This.

+1

You don't win Cup with that d-core.

 

[ToniJ1960]

It's way too early to tell without seeing a complete offseason. I hate losing Perron for the contract he walked out on, but without seeing the full body of work this offseason no rational conclusion can be made.

Day 1 of free agency though I give DA a C.
-Leddy contract. good in my book
- Acciari, good in my book
- Griess, I think the contract terms $1.25x1 are perfect, I think there were other bargain bin goalies out there that would have been better though.
- Losing Perron for 2x4.75, that's the only one that is purely a bad move to let him walk for under 5.

what contract did he `walk out on`

 

[BlueMed]

I am leaning toward down, but like others, I am going to wait. The FA forward signings are all "meh" IMO, they are basically lateral moves that make us neither better nor worse. None of them make up for the loss of Perron, but I understand they are not meant to.

It is on defense that I have the biggest issue. I can not be convinced that a top four of Krug-Leddy-Faulk-Parayko is a championship calibre defense.

Did we have franchise history best PP% last season?


This.

+1

You don't win Cup with that d-core.

It's tough to say. The top 5 D cores include Tampa, Colorado, Vegas, Carolina, and Dallas. The top 6-10 include NYR, St. Louis, Nashville, Florida, and Boston in no particular order. The most interesting thing about the finals, in my mind, was that Tampa's defense also had a very difficult time against Colorado's aggressive forecheck. They struggled getting the puck out of their end the entire series because Vasi isn't great at playing the puck. The team that frustrated the Avalanche the most was the Blues with a healthy Binnington.

Getting out of the west will requiring beating Colorado and/or Vegas. The key to that will be integrating Binnington into the breakout as an "extra defenseman." Looking at the Blues defense on paper, the most concerning player is Krug. His lack of defensive ability makes this team easier to play against 5 on 5, but he alone shouldn't prevent this team from reaching the cup finals. He was a very important reason Boston made it to game 7 of the SCF.

As far as those ripping on Army, you should probably check your ignorance. The Blues simply couldn't sign both Leddy and Perron given the cap space left. As far as upgrading the defense, there's not a single fan who has true access to the conversations and offers that take place behind the scenes. You have no idea whether the Coyotes are even willing to trade Chychrun to a divisional opponent or if the Flyers are willing to give up on Provorov. Army is probably making the best out of the available options at hand and doesn't deserve to get defamed 3 days into free agency.

 

[fcpremix88]

It's tough to say. The top 5 D cores include Tampa, Colorado, Vegas, Carolina, and Dallas. The top 6-10 include NYR, St. Louis, Nashville, Florida, and Boston in no particular order. The most interesting thing about the finals, in my mind, was that Tampa's defense also had a very difficult time against Colorado's aggressive forecheck. They struggled getting the puck out of their end the entire series because Vasi isn't great at playing the puck. The team that frustrated the Avalanche the most was the Blues with a healthy Binnington.

Getting out of the west will requiring beating Colorado and/or Vegas. The key to that will be integrating Binnington into the breakout as an "extra defenseman." Looking at the Blues defense on paper, the most concerning player is Krug. His lack of defensive ability makes this team easier to play against 5 on 5, but he alone shouldn't prevent this team from reaching the cup finals. He was a very important reason Boston made it to game 7 of the SCF.

Totally agreed. The Avalanche forecheck was just that good last year, and Binnington’s puck skills was the difference-maker for us.

As far as those ripping on Army, you should probably check your ignorance. The Blues simply couldn't sign both Leddy and Perron given the cap space left. As far as upgrading the defense, there's not a single fan who has true access to the conversations and offers that take place behind the scenes. You have no idea whether the Coyotes are even willing to trade Chychrun to a divisional opponent or if the Flyers are willing to give up on Provorov. Army is probably making the best out of the available options at hand and doesn't deserve to get defamed 3 days into free agency.

I strongly disagree here.

Fans who don’t agree with Armstrong’s choices over the last few weeks aren’t ignorant. They just disagree.

 

[Celtic Note]

I’ve had a problem deciding which way to vote between staying the same and decreasing, and it largely has to do with being curious how big the drop off the Blues have from the crazy high shooting percentage they posted last year that largely saved our bacon.

The Blues shooting percentage was 12.4% and that is a crazy high number. It’s the highest I can remember in the cap era, though I’d have to double check that. For perspective, league average last year was 9.3. So that means for every 100 shots the Blues put on net, 3 more went in then the average NHL team. And I will lead by saying shooting percentage isn’t a complete luck based stat, and talented scorers find ways to put the puck in the net. But the Blues were first in the league in shooting percentage by a full percentage point over second place, and it’s gonna be a hard sell that that’s sustainable.

Basically, for perspective, let’s look at the Blues goal total last year, and look at what our goal total would be with other somewhat realistic metric points. The Blues put up 2,492 shots last year, and scored 309 goals, so…

-If the Blues equaled the shooting percentage of the second highest shooting percentage, (Minnesota at 11.4) the Blues would have scored about 25 less goals, so 284 goals for to 239 against. Still a good team, but probably not finishing 2nd in the central.

-If the Blues matched the shooting percentage from the previous year (10.3 percent) the Blues put up about 50 less goals, down to 259. Now we are kind of in the middle of the pack, probably a wild card team, but maybe 3rd

-If the Blues were just league average (as stated, 9.3 percent), they would produce about 75 less goals, putting us at 234 goals for to 239 against, which is a team battling for a playoff spot.

Once more though, shooting percentage isn’t luck based, at least not completely. Honestly, Army seems to really value guys who have great shots, and that certainly helps. I honestly think the league average thing is heavily unlikely. But I do think the reality is we probably put up a shooting percentage next year in the 10.5-11% range, and if that happens, I think the idea of us as Stanley Cup Contenders with our deficiencies on D and questions in net becomes unlikely.

I don’t think we score as many goals next year. The shooting percentage was high and likely to come down. We had a lot of players with high percentages. Some of that was strategy driven though.

Losing Perron (who is a great shooter), will hurt. I cannot see Barby doing as well as he did last year. He seemed to be very opportunistic last season.

I cannot imagine a guy like Neighbours will do well enough to cover the losses in scoring. I see him as a 3rd/4th line tweener this year in terms of production.

It will be interesting to see how the coaching change will impact things as well. I think we have a pretty significant downgrade in coaching from Monty to McTavich. I don’t find that a particularly debatable claim either. Monty was great with Dallas and us. I have never thought well of Mac. He seems a little to simpleton and stuck in his ways/the past. How will this impact shooting and scoring? I am not sure.

I do think Berube will put a greater emphasis on team defense, forechecking and back checking this year. The Blues finally started buying into those in the playoffs, but they were playing catch-up since they didn’t do any of those particularly well in season. If the Wild and Aves series taught us any thing is the need to fully engage in those areas to be successful. With the loss to the Aves and the win versus the Wild, I think there will be more buy-in there. I think both series will solidify these as important in the minds of the players.

If we do those things well, I would expect to see more puck possession and better defensive numbers. That may make up for any reduction in offense. However, more puck possession could also help minimize any significant drop off in shooting percentage.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

The needle is stuck.

Losing Perron is a big blow on the PP. We have depth (playoff no-shows) that can take that slot, but no skater is better in his PP corner than Perron. Maybe Kyrou can give it a go. Either way, I think the PP is gonna have a new look, although Otter is still with the team.

Goaltending is meh, for me. Whatever. No change, as far as I'm concerned.

Static on D, unless Mikkola decides to not sign his qualifying offer, but he will.

Kostin? I'll wager that he'll decide to go back to the KHL. I wonder why Nathan Todd hasn't signed his offer. Would love to have him back in Springfield, which is stacked right now.

More or less stuck with perhaps a little downward sumpn' sumpn'.

Good call on the coach thing, Celtic. Didn't think about that.

 

[BrokenFace]

Slightly down so far, but that was unavoidable with our cap situation. If Neighbors looks like a reliable producer early and Leddy has a noticable impact on the defense during his first full season here then I could easily say we're trending up by Thanksgiving.

 

[mk80]

what contract did he `walk out on`

The one he signed in Detroit

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Slightly down so far, but that was unavoidable with our cap situation. If Neighbors looks like a reliable producer early and Leddy has a noticable impact on the defense during his first full season here then I could easily say we're trending up by Thanksgiving.

I do not expect Neighbours to be a "point producer". He's kind of a mucker. We may never be satisfied with him and the expectations that come with 1st-round value, but Jake will prove useful.

I like the future. Slightly down right now, but Neighbours will join the big boys, Bolduc will debut for 9 games, Alexandrov is chomping at the bit, Snuggerud is crystalizing, and maybe one of Peterson, Robertsson or Kaskimaki eventually breaks through.

Drafted defensive help will not actualize for at least 2-4 more seasons, but it looks good.

Goaltending future? idk

 

[Louie the Blue]

Goaltending future? idk

I feel pretty good about it with Hofer and Ellis. Surely one of them will turn out to be decent.

 

[BrokenFace]

I feel pretty good about it with Hofer and Ellis. Surely one of them will turn out to be decent.

They should at least help us keep the cap hit on our goalies manageable during Binner's contract.

 

[execwrite1]

GMs have to drive the car 100 miles per hour down the road while rebuilding the engine on the fly.

Very tough job - high marks to Armstrong. One of the best.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I feel pretty good about it with Hofer and Ellis. Surely one of them will turn out to be decent.

Hofer looks to be far better prospect than Ellis.

 

[ChuckLefley]

what contract did he `walk out on`

Last summer he was offered 2 years at $4m per.

 

[ToniJ1960]

Last summer he was offered 2 years at $4m per.

I read that Im just trying to say stating he `walked out` when he wasnt even offered a contract is deceptive.

 

[ChuckLefley]

I read that Im just trying to say stating he `walked out` when he wasnt even offered a contract is deceptive.

If you read that, then how can you say “he wasn’t even offered a contract?” He was offered one last summer, didn’t accept and then left when his contract ended.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Totally agreed. The Avalanche forecheck was just that good last year, and Binnington’s puck skills was the difference-maker for us.

I haven't really thought about it, but that could be one attribute that gave Greiss an advantage over other backup options. He's not Ben Bishop, but he's a solid puckhandler.

 

[BlueSeal]

I haven't really thought about it, but that could be one attribute that gave Greiss an advantage over other backup options. He's not Ben Bishop, but he's a solid puckhandler.

He’s had issues but the guy is underrated. I’m more concerned about our blueline tho.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

In the context of our competition in the West (post-Tkachuk trade), the Blues may be trending ever-so-slightly down. Just a tad.

Flames lost JG and MT, but gained one of the best two-way forwards in the game and a very good defenseman. So, relative to our competition, the Blues have slightly tougher competition compared to last season's Flames.

Maybe a strange way of looking at the thread topic.

But all of this may become moot if neither Huberdeau and Weegar extend with Calgary. I think they will, though.