Management Travis Green [Head Coach]

[Micklebot]

Bottom six definitely needs to start chipping in.

A little more luck at the front and little better goaltending and we can rattle off a large amount of wins

Pinto is really struggling, between him and Sanderson that's a lot of scoring we expected gone.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Pinto is really struggling, between him and Sanderson that's a lot of scoring we expected gone.

I would like to know what the bottom 6 xG is.

The power kill??

 

[PlayOn]

Agree mostly with what you are saying. But, it would be nice to find a high end skill forward that could play & think the game at the same level as Stutzle. That might have to come via the draft I suppose given that the Senators are small market Canadian team.

I also think we need another high end defenseman. Zub has already been injured a lot and I’d wonder if that will continue. I guess that could eventually be Yakemchuk (1 year, 2 years, x years).

The other thing is it would be really refreshing to hear Senator fans & team talk about much higher goals than just barely squeaking in to the playoffs. It seems like the high end of our ambitions and goals is to be a mediocre team (around .500). I understand why it boils down to this given history, but’s its rather sad to have such low expectations. We spend so much time scraping the advanced stats to find a glimmer of hope, but in the meantime our win/loss record leaves a lot to be desired.

Yeah I absolutely agree with all of this. For us to be a true contender Yakemchuk has to hit and we need to find Stützle a winger.

Expectations will rise as their performance does. At this point we haven’t seen the playoffs for seven years, I think just getting in is satisfactory. But I don’t think that means every year thereafter there will be comfort with just clawing our way in. Gotta start somewhere though.

 

[PlayOn]

I read your posts. You make some valid points, but are leaving off basic math.

in the 3 point era. A true 0.50 record is around 90 points at years end. Suggesting that at game 27, they needed to be at 29 or 30 points, just to be a true 0.500 team.

they are at 26...That alone is concerning. They are unable to play 0.50 in terms of pure wins and loses.

They finished 7th from the bottom last year. That earns them a favorable first 1/4 of the season schedule. You can see this by the 2 games against Anaheim. Games against Utah, Buffalo, Detroit, and the other low finishing teams from last year. They have yet to really go through the leagues upper teams from last season.

From roughly games 22 to games 65 will be against the top 1/3 and middle 1/3 from last year. It could mean a continuation of the sub 0.500 pure win/loss.

The World Juniors are coming. They will be on the road for about 3 weeks. All the while playing against tougher opponents than those they faced October to late November. That could guarantee a below 0.500 win/loss.

Come season's end, this team may just be at the 80-85 point mark.

meanwhile the 10 or so teams above them, have 6 that were last year's elite, so their schedule gets easier. And 4 were mid table, their schedule remains as balanced as it has been since the start. So all 10 could in fact improve on their results to date.

This team should have been and needed to be at 30-31 points, just to be a bubble team.

The problem with this is the assumption that the Sens can’t improve from game 5 to game 30 to game 60.

I think there’s often a desire to see it all click for the team one day and then they never look back. I don’t think that’s how anything happens, so then every time we lose it becomes some sort of confirmation bias that we haven’t learned. But if you watch this team they are slowly getting better over time. Whether they make the playoffs or not this year I don’t know, I think it goes without saying though they need to continue to iron out the kinks and get better if that’s going to happen.

 

[PlayersLtd]

I read your posts. You make some valid points, but are leaving off basic math.

in the 3 point era. A true 0.50 record is around 90 points at years end. Suggesting that at game 27, they needed to be at 29 or 30 points, just to be a true 0.500 team.

they are at 26...That alone is concerning. They are unable to play 0.50 in terms of pure wins and loses.

They finished 7th from the bottom last year. That earns them a favorable first 1/4 of the season schedule. You can see this by the 2 games against Anaheim. Games against Utah, Buffalo, Detroit, and the other low finishing teams from last year. They have yet to really go through the leagues upper teams from last season.

From roughly games 22 to games 65 will be against the top 1/3 and middle 1/3 from last year. It could mean a continuation of the sub 0.500 pure win/loss.

The World Juniors are coming. They will be on the road for about 3 weeks. All the while playing against tougher opponents than those they faced October to late November. That could guarantee a below 0.500 win/loss.

Come season's end, this team may just be at the 80-85 point mark.

meanwhile the 10 or so teams above them, have 6 that were last year's elite, so their schedule gets easier. And 4 were mid table, their schedule remains as balanced as it has been since the start. So all 10 could in fact improve on their results to date.

This team should have been and needed to be at 30-31 points, just to be a bubble team.

Have you looked at our last 15 games of the season...?

 

[Micklebot]

I would like to know what the bottom 6 xG is.

The power kill??

Name	G/82	A/82	pts/82	ixG 5v5
Tim Stutzle	29.28571429​	76.14​	105.43​	3.61​
Drake Batherson	35.14285714​	58.57​	93.71​	4.32​
Brady Tkachuk	41​	49.79​	90.79​	6.93​
Josh Norris	35.14285714​	20.50​	55.64​	4.37​
Claude Giroux	20.5​	32.21​	52.71​	2.29​
Adam Gaudette	39.48148148​	6.07​	45.56​	2.75​
Jake Sanderson	2.928571429​	41.00​	43.93​	0.93​
Thomas Chabot	2.928571429​	35.14​	38.07​	2.5​
Nick Jensen	2.928571429​	29.29​	32.21​	1.48​
Ridly Greig	6.56​	16.40​	22.96​	2.92​
Nick Cousins	9.461538462​	9.46​	18.92​	4.13​
Mike Amadio	5.857142857​	11.71​	17.57​	4.61​
Noah Gregor	10.69565217​	7.13​	17.83​	3.2​
Jacob Bernard-Docker	4.555555556​	13.67​	18.22​	0.55​
Shane Pinto	4.1​	8.20​	12.30​	2.5​
Artem Zub	0​	14.91​	14.91​	0.26​
Tyler Kleven	2.928571429​	2.93​	5.86​	0.81​
Travis Hamonic	0​	3.04​	3.04​	1.29​
Perron	0	0.00​	0.00​	1.65​

 

[Beech]

Have you looked at our last 15 games of the season...?

yes, I have.

the NHL, as with other leagues, work on a very simple scheduling method

1) the league is divided into 3. Top 10-11 teams, bottom 10-11 teams, middle 10-12 teams. Based upon last year's finish.
2) Games 1-21/22 are against your peer group primarily. When you play teams above your group, it is often at your arena and not theirs.

The goal is to ensure that by game 21/22 all teams are the same. So 0.500 wins/loses, but a tad above it, points wise, thanks to OTL. Ideally the best team in the division is at 30 points and you slide down 1-2 points a position. So by team 8 in your division you are at 20 points. Team 4 is at 25 points and everyone is within ear shot and hope!

3) Games 22-65 are the guts. A low finishing team from the previous season, must now start playing top 1/3 and middle 1/3. And they may/almost certainly will, travel. Top 1/3 teams start playing a slightly easier schedule. Middle 1/3 are largely unaffected.

Now we start seeing the cream rise. Top teams start pulling away, middle teams remain, bottom teams start falling.

4) Games 66-82 server a dual purpose a) rivalries. So Ottawa against MTL, Toronto, Boston, etc. build up the rivalry to pack the arena. Especially if Ottawa is out of the playoffs. b) return to an easy schedule for the bottom feeders, to give hope for next year. Hopefully they pack on the points and the fans base thinks, "okay wait until next year".

It is very straight forward. It is why you have to be careful of results and understand what is happening.

The Ottawa Senators schedule is as predictable as the sun rising.

Notice Boston and their success of late. Edmonton. A few others. The schedule has eased off a tad.
Buffalo, Detroit, etc. sinking like a stone. They are now in games 22-65!!!!

 

[Golden_Jet]

yes, I

the NHL, as with other leagues, work on a very simple scheduling method

1) the league is divided into 3. Top 10-11 teams, bottom 10-11 teams, middle 10-12 teams. Based upon last year's finish.
2) Games 1-21/22 are against your peer group primarily. When you play teams above your group, it is often at your arena and not theirs.

You made that up.

Also Vegas, Colorado, Rangers, Toronto, Boston, Carolina, we’re on the road in the first 17 games. There is no pattern.

 

[PlayersLtd]

yes, I have.

the NHL, as with other leagues, work on a very simple scheduling method

1) the league is divided into 3. Top 10-11 teams, bottom 10-11 teams, middle 10-12 teams. Based upon last year's finish.
2) Games 1-21/22 are against your peer group primarily. When you play teams above your group, it is often at your arena and not theirs.

The goal is to ensure that by game 21/22 all teams are the same. So 0.500 wins/loses, but a tad above it, points wise, thanks to OTL. Ideally the best team in the division is at 30 points and you slide down 1-2 points a position. So by team 8 in your division you are at 20 points. Team 4 is at 25 points and everyone is within ear shot and hope!

3) Games 22-65 are the guts. A low finishing team from the previous season, must now start playing top 1/3 and middle 1/3. And they may/almost certainly will, travel. Top 1/3 teams start playing a slightly easier schedule. Middle 1/3 are largely unaffected.

Now we start seeing the cream rise. Top teams start pulling away, middle teams remain, bottom teams start falling.

4) Games 66-82 server a dual purpose a) rivalries. So Ottawa against MTL, Toronto, Boston, etc. build up the rivalry to pack the arena. Especially if Ottawa is out of the playoffs. b) return to an easy schedule for the bottom feeders, to give hope for next year. Hopefully they pack on the points and the fans base thinks, "okay wait until next year".

It is very straight forward. It is why you have to be careful of results and understand what is happening.

The Ottawa Senators schedule is as predictable as the sun rising.

Notice Boston and their success of late. Edmonton. A few others. The schedule has eased off a tad.
Buffalo, Detroit, etc. sinking like a stone. They are now in games 22-65!!!!

Hmmm, never heard of the strength of competition broken up into phases of the season like that. You sure? Post a link.

Regardless, my point was that the last 15 games of our season are by and large vs weaker competition. So just pointing out the error in your claim that scheduling was an uphill battle from here on out. We end with a pretty favourable schedule for a bubble team which could be the difference between playoffs and not.