Ok it’s time for me to finally ask: what in the world is a live message board thread?
Something which doesn't work well on mobile (android/chrome at least).
Player | Off Snaps | Targets |
Davis | 966 | 81 |
Diggs | 949 | 160 |
Kincaid | 699 | 91 |
Shakir | 604 | 45 |
Knox | 487 | 36 |
Sherfield | 392 | 22 |
Morris | 185 | 3 |
Harty | 155 | 21 |
Isabella | 2 | 0 |
Total | 4439 | 459 |
Samuel played around 600 snaps last season. He has topped 800 snaps in 2 out of 7 seasons.
And even with adding in the TEs, they lost a ton of WR/TE snaps (55%) and targets (62%). It is not going to be made up by adding Samuel and giving Shakir and Kincaid larger roles. And expecting injuries to not happen isn't a smart plan, either.
I'm not expecting a big, early double dip at WR. But, I think there is a chance it could happen especially if they target a guy like Worthy who could be more of a role guy as a rookie.
You have lost circa 2,450 with the offseason departures.
Kincaid plays a ton next year IMO. Probably another 200-300.
Knox plays another 200-300 just if he's healthy.
Shakir plays another 200-300 too.
One of those seasons Samuel topped 800 was under Brady. He's tended to play less only because of injury. I think he'll play much nearer 800 than 600.
Hollins plays some - purely on what he brings in the run game / blocking for others. Let's say 200-300. Neither BTJ or Worthy can replace this.
Since there's a glaring need for a guy to replace Davis - let's assume our rookie/s get at least 700-800.
Even at the most conservative end of the scale, we've replaced 2,100 of those lost snaps. At the other end of the scale we have filled them all comfortably with more to spare.
This doesn't even account for guys like Shorter, Isabella or Hamler getting more of a look, doesn't really account for them playing more run with Brady than with Dorsey either, i could go on.
The only valid point i think you make is injuries - but you don't make early picks on the basis of someone else getting hurt.
You also have to think that even if there were extra snaps available because of injury - it would be hard to fit in 2 guys who stylistically fit a similar role. EG Kincaid didn't suddenly turn into an elite in line blocker when Knox went down last year.
If they take two WRs early - the second guy is simply going to cannibalise snaps, development & opportunity from the first guy. Or vice versa.