Training Camp and Preseason thread 2023

[SA16]

What does the length of the horizontal bars for each player represent?

Very good question because no matter how long I stare at it I can't figure it out.

 

[OriginalLimbo]

What does the length of the horizontal bars for each player represent?

Some men are longer than others…

 

[TheDirtyH]

What does the length of the horizontal bars for each player represent?

Very good question because no matter how long I stare at it I can't figure it out.

It's the relative strength of the player vs. average in his place in the lineup.

In this instance, Fox is the second best #1 defensemen in the league and a considerable margin better than the average #1 (by dom's model).

Zibanejad is just about average for a #1 forward. etc.

 

[UnSandvich]

Shayna being awfully optimistic

New York Rangers 2023-24 season preview

The Rangers didn’t go big or bold with the roster this offseason, but that's a strength that has them primed to go further.

theathletic.com

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To be clear, while Shayna's name is on the article, and she does most of the actual analysis (read, the intelligent stuff), the actual model she's being forced to work with is Dom Luzczyczyns. Which is very hit or miss

 

[hackeyman]

Am I the only one who is totally fine with this team looking like complete dogshit in the preseason? I much prefer it to looking amazing and getting everyones hopes sky high and also peaking early.

I might remind all, it's a LONNG season. Getting hot towards the end of it is what you want. Lavi has a track record of his first season being pretty damn good when he takes over a team. We may see growing pains early, thats fine by me as long as momentum picks up and takes us into the post season.

Preseason means nothing and we're winning the cup this year.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

What does the length of the horizontal bars for each player represent?

Percentiles with the bar graphs are based on each player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating relative to their time-on-ice slot, i.e., the first forward is compared to other first forwards only.

Offensive Rating: A weighted combination of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals, faceoffs, penalties drawn, expected goals for impact at five-on-five, goals for impact at five-on-five, power-play goal impact and usage.

Defensive Rating: A weighted combination of blocked shots, faceoffs, penalties taken, expected goals against impact at five-on-five, goals against impact at five-on-five, penalty kill impact and usage.

Everything above is weighted almost the same as before. Individual metrics carry the same weight and the ratio between individual and on-ice impact also stays the same. But the ratio of expected to actual goals has changed as actual goals have become more important and predictive as goals per game has increased.

The separation of offensive and defensive metrics in GSVA is a long overdue one and that increase in goals per game since 2017-18 is part of the reason why it’s so vital. When goals become less scarce the ability to diminish them becomes more important.

Offensive and Defensive Rating are both centered around an average skater at their position where positive is always good. The idea of “average” is something that’s easier to wrap your head around and it creates an immediately intuitive baseline for the middle. An average player by GSVA isn’t quite so easy to figure out without simply knowing. Shifting the baseline to start from the middle out helps. An average player by Net Rating is right at zero.

And at its core, that’s what Net Rating is: If you take an average team with average skaters and swap one of them out for Connor McDavid, what would the model project their goal differential to be? The answer according to Net Rating is plus-28; plus-27 on offense and plus-1 on defense. With replacement level at roughly minus-7 goals that would put McDavid’s win value at 5.8 wins, a shade below how valuable GSVA figured he was.

Introducing the 'new' NHL stats fans should know: Offensive and Defensive Rating

We’re not reinventing the wheel here; just repackaging it in regard to our NHL stats.

theathletic.com

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Shayna also went into depth re Kakko and Laf as well:

Rangers' big question: Can Kakko and Lafrenière finally step up to provide high-end support?

Can Kakko and Lafrenière become reliable supporting players and help give the Rangers their best chance at contending?

theathletic.com

As it stands, neither one projects to overwhelm even as a part of the secondary cast. At this point, New York either needs The Kid Line (Kakko, Lafrenière and Chytil) to be a bona fide, top-tier third line, or these two players need to hit true top-six caliber — especially if members of the core start declining in the near future. Kakko may project relatively well for a team’s seventh forward at a plus-1 Net Rating, but that seems to stem more from his defensive growth than his offensive ability, which is supposed to be the highlight of his game. The team needs him to move up the ranks and start looking like a capable fourth or fifth forward who can be relied on. Lafrenière measures up even worse for his position, with even fewer positives to draw from on either end of the ice.

 

[mas0764]

@mas0764 doesn't know what to do with himself.

(Dom is a cool dude, but his models are wonky AF.)

Even when isolating Trouba from his hefty cap hit, there are some gaps in his game that hold back that second pairing. There’s some risk to how he retrieves pucks, and he doesn’t exit with control very often. But even more troublesome is how he defends the blue line, and how many scoring chances get past him in transition.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Even when isolating Trouba from his hefty cap hit, there are some gaps in his game that hold back that second pairing. There’s some risk to how he retrieves pucks, and he doesn’t exit with control very often. But even more troublesome is how he defends the blue line, and how many scoring chances get past him in transition.

Thats what you chose to point out?

3rd in points, 4th best cup odds.

Hell I don't even agree with this but DomL is/was your gospel.

 

[mas0764]

Thats what you chose to point out?

3rd in points, 4th best cup odds.

Hell I don't even agree with this but DomL is/was your gospel.

I’ve never said that Dom’s model is infallible, but it’s a good guide and gets more right than wrong.

I’d have to read more as to why we would be fourth best in Cup odds cause I’d have us a little farther down that list. But I’ve never said we are not a solid playoff team, I just don’t agree we are a true contender.

 

[effen]

I’ve never said that Dom’s model is infallible, but it’s a good guide and gets more right than wrong.

I’d have to read more as to why we would be fourth best in Cup odds cause I’d have us a little farther down that list. But I’ve never said we are not a solid playoff team, I just don’t agree we are a true contender.

I think at least regular season wise having average NHL level depth as opposed to Jake L and Hajek level depth is worth several wins by itself.

They've been playing with an enormous amount of sub replacement parts for years and outperforming their negative impact.

Playoffs are of course lotto.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I don’t know if I would have us with the 4th best odds but assuming Igor is Igor and the rest of the core is as productive as they have been with some improved depth up front and the addition of Gustafsson I think we are better positioned than we were last year or the year before. Not to mention hopefully improved 5v5 play.

 

[mas0764]

If Kakko and Lafreniere become impact players we could be a true contender as long as Zibanejad, Kreider and Panarin also continue to play at elite levels.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I think the sticker shock is largely the devils ranking behind us, even with a full season of Meier and now toffoli. But they are a younger team with more likely room to outperform and our margins are probably slimmer. That said, in a bad year we were in the running for home ice until the last couple weeks of the season so I don't think our rank from dom is unrealistic.

 

[Kendo]

So you are chirping at me for "losing my own plot" yet it was actually you arguing with me about something when you missed it right off the bat.

You also are relying on jones/schneider to work (which hasn't at the NHL level) and for miller/fox. So both your suggests actually cause all three pairs to be disrupted.

Go sit down already.

I’ll go back to what I said earlier. No answer will satisfy you.

“What do we do if Lindgren is injured?” Apparently forfeit a couple games because Fox has not played extensive minutes with any other partner. Ya got me.

 

[IDvsEGO]

I think the sticker shock is largely the devils ranking behind us, even with a full season of Meier and now toffoli. But they are a younger team with more likely room to outperform and our margins are probably slimmer. That said, in a bad year we were in the running for home ice until the last couple weeks of the season so I don't think our rank from dom is unrealistic.

They're not much younger than we are.

 

[RGY]

November 20th. This is the day after Patrick Kane turns 35. I have not studied the CBA like some here, but assuming he can sign a 35+ incentive infused deal like Wheeler then I have him signing with the Rangers after that day. $1.5am-$2 million with incentives that can bring it to $3 million for the year that would roll into next year’s cap.

 

[Mike in Houston]

We went 1-5 back in 2013-2014 in the preseason with a veteran core and while learning a new system. We were terrible at the start of the regular season. Biron got retired. Real bad. Went on to reach the cup final. No panic here.

 

[IDvsEGO]

November 20th. This is the day after Patrick Kane turns 35. I have not studied the CBA like some here, but assuming he can sign a 35+ incentive infused deal like Wheeler then I have him signing with the Rangers after that day. $1.5am-$2 million with incentives that can bring it to $3 million for the year that would roll into next year’s cap.

Any contract not signed on day one, has a higher overall cap hit than its actual dollar amount.
So we can’t afford any Kane deal that’s not league minimum, and that’s if we don’t have any injuries

 

[bleedblue94]

I’ll go back to what I said earlier. No answer will satisfy you.

“What do we do if Lindgren is injured?” Apparently forfeit a couple games because Fox has not played extensive minutes with any other partner. Ya got me.

A quality though out answer will but I didn't get that and you don't like me pushing back. It's fine, we are both better moving on...

 

[Raspewtin]

Will Cuylle has lowkey had a very good preseason. Finishing checks, driving the net, driving possession, and scoring some goals. I still don't think he makes it but he's made a very good case for himself.

Othmann has petered out recently. He tries and looks engaged which is great and he hasn't had the best linemate luck, but I think he's for sure AHL bound.

 

[cheech70]

NYG,NYJ,NYM,NYY are we gonna join the trend? Sure looks that way....Is there a message board for the NYK? Can we start one here?

 

[NickyFotiu]

Weird that in a player thread skating speed isnt everything but in this thread we need skating speed. This board is bi-polar.

 

[GAGLine]

November 20th. This is the day after Patrick Kane turns 35. I have not studied the CBA like some here, but assuming he can sign a 35+ incentive infused deal like Wheeler then I have him signing with the Rangers after that day. $1.5am-$2 million with incentives that can bring it to $3 million for the year that would roll into next year’s cap.

It's not based on the day the player signs the contract. This is the rule:

(2) Performance Bonuses shall be allowable under this Agreement only for:
(i) Players with Entry Level SPCs under Article 9 of this Agreement;
(ii) Players aged 35 or older as of June 30 prior to the League Year in which the SPC is to be effective, who have signed a one-year SPC for that League Year; and
(iii) Players who are "400-plus game Players" for pension purposes, and who: (i) in the last year of their most recent SPC, spent 100 days or more on the Injured Reserve List; and (ii) have signed a one-year SPC for the current or upcoming League Year.

Kane wasn't 35 on June 30th, so he isn't eligible based on age.

If he had gotten the surgery earlier and missed 100 days last season, he would then have been eligible for performance bonuses this season. By delaying the surgery, he probably cost himself some money.

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

NYG,NYJ,NYM,NYY are we gonna join the trend? Sure looks that way....Is there a message board for the NYK? Can we start one here?

Haha, I was thinking the same exact thing. I'm getting Giants/Jets/Mets vibes from this Rangers team: high expectations, but massively disappoints.