GDT: Trades & Free Agency

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SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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I think we need to be open to the idea of potentially taking a step back next year, in the interest of building a proper contender long-term. We've spent a ton of assets the last few years, and obviously have had limited cap flexibity.

Marner - what return do we get if we move him at full caphit? What return do we get if we retain a bit and move him at a caphit of ~7-8M?

Tavares - he is unlikely to waive, but if we played hardball with him and said he can either waive and give us a short list of destinations, or he can have the C stripped (in this market) and we won't re-sign him after so he'll have to leave anyway. He may want to avoid a years worth of negativity and just leave. TB played hardball with McDonagh and told him to accept a trade to Nashville or get waived to the minors and claimed by Columbus. We don't have that same leverage, but it's a similar concept of giving a few options to the player. Tavares is worth nothing at 11M, but retain 50%, and he holds some value.

Get those guys moved, next year likely becomes a bit of a write-off, but it sets us up well for 2025 and beyond as the trade returns on Marner with retention + Tavares with retention vs only moving Marner with no retention are quite different. Frees up a ton of capspace longterm, and there's a good chance Knies, Cowen, and Grebenkin are filling three top 9 wingers spots for cheap for a number of years. Woll, Niemela, Minten, etc will also be further developed, and hopefully playing meaningful roles in 2025.

Critical to either get as part of the trade return, address in free agency with the capspace, or via another trade, is to find a quality #2 C and a top pairing dman, because those are critical roles that we seem unlikely to fill internally.

I don't disagree. I think though this plan is much better in a years time when Tavares can walk and Marner is a UFA. Not sure the Leafs need to create such an intense media circus forcing out solid to great players out like that. We may suck in the playoffs and in crunch time but this is still a good team and plenty of ways to keep working through JT and Marner being here if they don't want to move.

Not to say they can't talk to the players, see what's out there and get aggressive if there's interest but I think 1 year from now, that's when you probably look at taking a step back.
 

Americanadian

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If Marner is moved and not salary comes back (assuming a 3rd party retains 50%), the Leafs will all of a sudden have a lot of cap space. Trading Jarnkrok for Rakell would be an interesting bet. The Leafs would take on 3M in additional cap but they get significant upside.

Rakell is coming off a down year but he put up 28 goals/60 points in 22/23. Rakell has been a dud in his last 2 playoffs but he has put up a good playoff run in the past (7G/6A in 15GP). Jarnkrok has only hit 20 goals once (as a Leaf) and has a very bad history in the playoffs (5g in 90GP). Dubas signed Jarnkrok and Dubas would most likely want him back, especially if it comes at a cap savings. Jarnkrok will be 33 to start next season, Rakell 31.

This only makes sense if Marner is moved.
 

TheShape

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Oct 25, 2018
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Buffalo makes the most sense, if he wants to be close to family.

They have some expensive assets without clauses.
Yeah if he wants to stay closer to home then Buffalo and Detroit are the front runners. Sabres are starving for star power up front.

If not, Dallas and LA are contenders, attractive destinations and have the capital and assets to trade with anyone league wide, that’s probably our best bet at a return.
 

Americanadian

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Vegas wont ever do that sadly

Theodore though injury prone is a top10D when healthy. Elite player

On a great deal and we ask for Karlsson on top of that who is a 50-60 pt 2C.

No way sadly we could get that for Mitchell Marner
More likely is Theodore+Roy for Marner+McCabe
 

Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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Here is some of what I've been thinking.

Shanahan out, Keefe out...

Trade 1. Marner to Seattle for Wright, #7 OA, Seattle needs a first line RW, and this doesn't subtract from their lineup at all. Wright actually played quite well in the second half of the season in the AHL, and is looking like he'll be a reasonable 2C at this point. #7AOA, the hope for me personally is Dickinson
Trade 2. McMann + Holmberg + Niemela for Jack McBain
Trade 3. Option A) Jarnkrok + Kampf for very early 2nd, if Emery is on the board.


Draft
#7 OA - Dickinson
#22 OA - Elick
Second rounder - Emery.
 

Americanadian

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Here is some of what I've been thinking.

Shanahan out, Keefe out...

Trade 1. Marner to Seattle for Wright, #7 OA, Seattle needs a first line RW, and this doesn't subtract from their lineup at all. Wright actually played quite well in the second half of the season in the AHL, and is looking like he'll be a reasonable 2C at this point. #7AOA, the hope for me personally is Dickinson
Trade 2. McMann + Holmberg + Niemela for Jack McBain
Trade 3. Option A) Jarnkrok + Kampf for very early 2nd, if Emery is on the board.


Draft
#7 OA - Dickinson
#22 OA - Elick
Second rounder - Emery.
Do you think Marner waives for Seattle though?
 

Fogelhund

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Do you think Marner waives for Seattle though?
That's a great question that nobody can answer. I don't know that he'd waive at all.

But, Seattle is a team that he can be a top player with, and Beniers is looking like he could be a good C to play with. They have a competitive franchise, that really is just missing an offensive spark, so it good be a good fit for him.

Seattle probably has more of a desire to obtain a top RW than anybody else in the league at this point, and the biggest need to want some offense. They want to be competitive now, and could be with a few tweaks.

I mean... we approach him and tell him we are going to be making changes, that the current core didn't work out... and that he'll continue to be a third line RW on this team next year.... that they like the Domi-Matthews combo and Tavares-Nylander combo... Legitimately, it makes sense for us to go down this road for now... and if his opportunities are going to go down in a contract year, that's not a positive for him either.

What he ultimately decides, I don't know.. but I like the idea of being able to pick up a potential 2C, and a good LD for the future out of it, which Seattle could afford to do, as it doesn't affect their lineup at all.
 
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SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
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Here is some of what I've been thinking.

Shanahan out, Keefe out...

Trade 1. Marner to Seattle for Wright, #7 OA, Seattle needs a first line RW, and this doesn't subtract from their lineup at all. Wright actually played quite well in the second half of the season in the AHL, and is looking like he'll be a reasonable 2C at this point. #7AOA, the hope for me personally is Dickinson
Trade 2. McMann + Holmberg + Niemela for Jack McBain
Trade 3. Option A) Jarnkrok + Kampf for very early 2nd, if Emery is on the board.


Draft
#7 OA - Dickinson
#22 OA - Elick
Second rounder - Emery.

I'd expect them to throw the Leafs a salary or two towards the Leafs way. And I'm not sure if Wright is someone they have any sort of interest in trading and appears to be slowly turning a solid center option.

Something like 7th, Bjorkstrand and Ryker or Dragicevic or something like that anyway. I'd even throw them a Kampf if they are looking to upgrade their center/bottom depth. But overall, it makes some form of sense to target their top pick in this kind of deal.
 

Americanadian

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That's a great question that nobody can answer. I don't know that he'd waive at all.

But, Seattle is a team that he can be a top player with, and Beniers is looking like he could be a good C to play with. They have a competitive franchise, that really is just missing an offensive spark, so it good be a good fit for him.

Seattle probably has more of a desire to obtain a top RW than anybody else in the league at this point, and the biggest need to want some offense. They want to be competitive now, and could be with a few tweaks.

I mean... we approach him and tell him we are going to be making changes, that the current core didn't work out... and that he'll continue to be a third line RW on this team next year.... that they like the Domi-Matthews combo and Tavares-Nylander combo... Legitimately, it makes sense for us to go down this road for now... and if his opportunities are going to go down in a contract year, that's not a positive for him either.

What he ultimately decides, I don't know.. but I like the idea of being able to pick up a potential 2C, and a good LD for the future out of it, which Seattle could afford to do, as it doesn't affect their lineup at all.
I agree that the trade would be good for the Leafs and I could see Seattle being interested. I just don’t see Marner wanting to be in Seattle although they would pay him the largest AAV for a player in a no tax state which seems to be his biggest motivator.
 

aingefan

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Feb 27, 2008
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Something like this makes sense, maybe I’m being greedy but I’d want an upgrade on Stankoven if possible. Something more proven.


Detroit makes a whole lot of sense for Marner as a UFA destination, but I’m not sure they work as trade partners.
I get the ‘more proven’ part, but Stankoven at ELC for what, like 2 more years, would be an incredibly hard sell.

Larkin and Marner are big buddies, I could really see that being a legit option.

Edit to add: I’d trade Marner for Edvinsson’s celly’s alone. The player would be the throw in.
 

aingefan

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Feb 27, 2008
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So what's the general consensus here... are we going to make changes to management and players next year, with the hope of competing next year, or the year after, once Tavares comes off the books too, and we have a ton of cap flexibility?
This is a great question.

I think there’s no way this isn’t a playoff team either way. I’d think of the next two years as retools on the fly, ideally working in more and more homegrown youth. Try to fill the identified holes with legitimate experienced talent - a goalie, a RD, a forward.

Lots of projectable youth for various roles coming soon.

Greb and more playing time and opportunity for PH NR MK TL and BM to start next year. Maybe Niemela, Hildeby and Tverberg by the end of the year. Quillan and Webber maybe competing in there.

Cowan, Minten, Quillan and Webber the year after.

Fill the cracks with value buys and placeholders on the fringes.

Ideal team management involves both approaches - adding NHL talent, and adding from below, continually. The Dallas GM is the gold star for this right now.
 

aingefan

Registered User
Feb 27, 2008
5,184
2,950
Here is some of what I've been thinking.

Shanahan out, Keefe out...

Trade 1. Marner to Seattle for Wright, #7 OA, Seattle needs a first line RW, and this doesn't subtract from their lineup at all. Wright actually played quite well in the second half of the season in the AHL, and is looking like he'll be a reasonable 2C at this point. #7AOA, the hope for me personally is Dickinson
Trade 2. McMann + Holmberg + Niemela for Jack McBain
Trade 3. Option A) Jarnkrok + Kampf for very early 2nd, if Emery is on the board.


Draft
#7 OA - Dickinson
#22 OA - Elick
Second rounder - Emery.
Would love trades 1 and 3, I’d even retain a fair bit on Marner - like the whole 50% - to push that across the line.

Not seeing that kinda value in McBain, tho.
 

Jozay

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Jul 9, 2012
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Vegas wont ever do that sadly

Theodore though injury prone is a top10D when healthy. Elite player

On a great deal and we ask for Karlsson on top of that who is a 50-60 pt 2C.

No way sadly we could get that for Mitchell Marner
Yeah lol

Leafs will probably opt to keep Marner. Could see them trying to play a little hard ball with Tavares to get him to waive.
 

Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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Would love trades 1 and 3, I’d even retain a fair bit on Marner - like the whole 50% - to push that across the line.

Not seeing that kinda value in McBain, tho.
I think it's an overpayment on McBain... but then, they don't have a reason to move him otherwise. He's a big, physical C, that puts up points in 4th line minutes. I think we could use that, and build around the C position going forward... Matthews, Wright, McBain, Minten... in some order for the last two.. and relatively low cost at that. Based upon how they play next year, it might even give us an option to move on from Tavares.
 
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Americanadian

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I think it's an overpayment on McBain... but then, they don't have a reason to move him otherwise. He's a big, physical C, that puts up points in 4th line minutes. I think we could use that, and build around the C position going forward... Matthews, Wright, McBain, Minten... in some order for the last two.. and relatively low cost at that. Based upon how they play next year, it might even give us an option to move on from Tavares.
I think he'd be a good target in a Liljegren swap but I'd be weary of moving on from McMann at his current AAV/production.
 

kb

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Aug 28, 2009
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I’m even wondering if zegras plus. (2 years at 5.75 then rfa) would be ok.

I would prefer McTavish of course.
The Leafs do not need a trick shot artist who doesn't know his goalie - a la Robbie Schremp.
 

pspot

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Dec 20, 2004
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something around Zegras for Marner makes some sense
change of scenery for both guys but most are determining that Zegras is not a top line guy
not sure you'll get their 1st with current value of marner but maybe someone like Luneau or LaCombe ....or make it really interesting and start talking about Zegras and Gibson
 
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keonsbitterness

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Sep 14, 2010
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So what's the general consensus here... are we going to make changes to management and players next year, with the hope of competing next year, or the year after, once Tavares comes off the books too, and we have a ton of cap flexibility?
Management, likely. Players, unlikely.

Things could actually get worse. Imagine missing the playoffs next season and winning the lottery when we have no 1st round pick. Not an impossible outcome with no Marner on the team, assuming he was open to a trade.
 
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