I think we need to be open to the idea of potentially taking a step back next year, in the interest of building a proper contender long-term. We've spent a ton of assets the last few years, and obviously have had limited cap flexibity.
Marner - what return do we get if we move him at full caphit? What return do we get if we retain a bit and move him at a caphit of ~7-8M?
Tavares - he is unlikely to waive, but if we played hardball with him and said he can either waive and give us a short list of destinations, or he can have the C stripped (in this market) and we won't re-sign him after so he'll have to leave anyway. He may want to avoid a years worth of negativity and just leave. TB played hardball with McDonagh and told him to accept a trade to Nashville or get waived to the minors and claimed by Columbus. We don't have that same leverage, but it's a similar concept of giving a few options to the player. Tavares is worth nothing at 11M, but retain 50%, and he holds some value.
Get those guys moved, next year likely becomes a bit of a write-off, but it sets us up well for 2025 and beyond as the trade returns on Marner with retention + Tavares with retention vs only moving Marner with no retention are quite different. Frees up a ton of capspace longterm, and there's a good chance Knies, Cowen, and Grebenkin are filling three top 9 wingers spots for cheap for a number of years. Woll, Niemela, Minten, etc will also be further developed, and hopefully playing meaningful roles in 2025.
Critical to either get as part of the trade return, address in free agency with the capspace, or via another trade, is to find a quality #2 C and a top pairing dman, because those are critical roles that we seem unlikely to fill internally.
