Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Fogelhund]

Well, for a post that started with a bunch of things "we don't know", you certainly responded with a bunch of things "we don't know".

(a) We don't know that the Leafs haven't reached out already. It's reasonable to assume they have put feelers out.
(b) We don't know that Marner would ever consider an offer at less than current.
(c) We also don't know if he would be offended by such an offer.

We DO KNOW that his history is one of not taking a discount and seemingly comparing himself contract wise as above Nylander and below Matthews.

So, if your suggestion is that we sign him early with a year where we can trade him (at a discounted price) I agree that this would be optimal. I have zero reason to believe it would ever happen.

In my scenario, we have him playing for a contract all year, which is a good thing and the worst case scenario (contract wise) is that we have playoff success because of him and we re-sign him and it costs us $500K or $1M more per year than it would have to sign him before the season, or maybe they get closer to the cup and he doesn't demand more...maybe he just wants to come back and finish the job they get close to.

Oh well.. we get to arm chair QB this, until the situation is resolved one way or the other.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Tavares plays 2C, because he's pretty good at it.

Tavares will drop to 50 pts this year.. I would wait before resigning him.Just saying may need his money to upgrade next year.

 

[Fogelhund]

Tavares will drop to 50 pts this year.. I would wait before resigning him.Just saying may need his money to upgrade next year.

Noting.. the the "premier" C's available as UFA's next year, appear to be Granlund, Gourde and Dvorak in that order. These aren't upgrades.

Otherwise, we are looking to trade for that upgrade, and I'm not sure we have the currency, outside of Marner... who will be a UFA anyway... so we might not even have him to trade.

2025 NHL Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NHL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

 

[conFABulator]

Oh well.. we get to arm chair QB this, until the situation is resolved one way or the other.

Yep. That's what the off-season is for.

I agree with you, btw that the Leafs should offer a contract now, with a good number and terms. I just don't see it going anywhere.

 

[Pinkcat]

Tavares will drop to 50 pts this year.. I would wait before resigning him.Just saying may need his money to upgrade next year.

This is probably close to the reality of the situation, He struggled mightily in defensive coverage at the end of last season. He will have to forego offense to make sure his defensive responsibilities are covered under the new coach's system.
As an aside how much jersey revenue would McDavid generate for a large market team and ultimately the NHL and NHLPA?
Also Katz + Bettman = Bowman in the scripted NHL.

 

[-DeMo-]

If he is going to get a raise, he is going to have to earn it. That comes from a strong regular season, perhaps one where he shows he can carry a line, followed by a playoff performance we have not seen before. One where his play contributes to us getting further than we have.

at this point imo Marner really can't earn anything more. when you look at his previous 6 season's his point per game totals in the regular season have him in the 90-100 point totals with one year being a bit better on pace for 110 points.

he's not a player whose continually improved his offensive output. he is who he is. even if he went out this year a put up 130 points, that wouldn't change my opinion on what I would expect his offensive output to be year over year in his new contract. similarly if he had a poor season and only got 70 points and was healthy all year, that wouldn't change my opinion either.

he's a 90-100 point guy who kills penalties well, that usually has poor starts to the season in his first 10 games or so before he really gets going. this is the player we or any team who signs him should expect to be getting until he starts to decline as a player due to age.

so yea to me if the plan is re-signing Marner doesn't matter if it's this off-season mid-season or after the season. one season doesn't change that. too many people fall for the contract year bump and think that's the new player. it's usually not and espicially with a player whose been so consistant like Marner over the past 6 years hard to see his level changing at 28

 

[jaric1862]

This team is pretty much done. We should be looking at deadline additions.

 

[notDatsyuk]

For me it's simply the fact that Marner still hasn't been resigned, whereas the others have. You can't have that much of the cap tied up in 4 forwards, so he's the one who should be traded.

I think that was the plan last year, which is why Tre signed Willy long term instead of trading him or letting him walk.

The smart move would be to keep just one of them, and Tre decided Willy was the better choice.

 

[notDatsyuk]

At this point last year, Matthews and Nylander hadn’t been extended either. Matthews was late August, Nylander January. I wouldn’t read anything into it.

I wouldn't read anything into his not being signed yet.

On the other hand, do you read anything into the difference between "signing them is our top priority" and "he's a really good player"?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Cap will be tied to 3 forwards by the time a Marner extension kicks in.

Cap will be tied to 3 forwards IF Marner is signed to an extension.

 

[Fogelhund]

I wouldn't read anything into his not being signed yet.

On the other hand, do you read anything into the difference between "signing them is our top priority" and "he's a really good player"?

No, they are just words. I also don't believe much of anything they say publicly anyway. It wasn't that long ago the GM talked about a time for patience being over, and everything was on the table... and then nothing happened.

 

[keonsbitterness]

everything was on the table... and then nothing happened.

Table was repurposed after they got a new shipment of jerseys.

 

[notDatsyuk]

No, they are just words. I also don't believe much of anything they say publicly anyway. It wasn't that long ago the GM talked about a time for patience being over, and everything was on the table... and then nothing happened.

There is certainly a different flavor to those words, whether you want to see it or not.

As far as "everything is on the table", we know he has made changes where he was in complete control. If you assume "everything" specifically meant "one of the top four (or five)", we won't know until something happens, and considering the NMCs they have, we won't know for sure one way or the other until they expire.

 

[conFABulator]

at this point imo Marner really can't earn anything more. when you look at his previous 6 season's his point per game totals in the regular season have him in the 90-100 point totals with one year being a bit better on pace for 110 points.

he's not a player whose continually improved his offensive output. he is who he is. even if he went out this year a put up 130 points, that wouldn't change my opinion on what I would expect his offensive output to be year over year in his new contract. similarly if he had a poor season and only got 70 points and was healthy all year, that wouldn't change my opinion either.

he's a 90-100 point guy who kills penalties well, that usually has poor starts to the season in his first 10 games or so before he really gets going. this is the player we or any team who signs him should expect to be getting until he starts to decline as a player due to age.

so yea to me if the plan is re-signing Marner doesn't matter if it's this off-season mid-season or after the season. one season doesn't change that. too many people fall for the contract year bump and think that's the new player. it's usually not and espicially with a player whose been so consistant like Marner over the past 6 years hard to see his level changing at 28

If Marner goes out and gets 28 points in 21 playoff games that doesn't change his value for you?

You sort of ignored my entire point, which in part agreed with your point. We know what Marner is in the regular season. I imagine his best seasons are ahead of him points-wise and we may see 110 points or more.

We agree that this won't change his value and to me this is not worth $12.5M to this Leafs team, IMO.

It's a cap world, if Marner can't bring it in the playoffs then we need to reallocate his dollars to a roster formula that could get us over the hump. If he does bring it in the playoffs then we know he is capable of doing that, right now we don't know that he has that capability.

 

[darrylsittler27]

This is probably close to the reality of the situation, He struggled mightily in defensive coverage at the end of last season. He will have to forego offense to make sure his defensive responsibilities are covered under the new coach's system.
As an aside how much jersey revenue would McDavid generate for a large market team and ultimately the NHL and NHLPA?
Also Katz + Bettman = Bowman in the scripted NHL.

Yeah I'm ready to walk from Tavares.

If Marner goes out and gets 28 points in 21 playoff games that doesn't change his value for you?

You sort of ignored my entire point, which in part agreed with your point. We know what Marner is in the regular season. I imagine his best seasons are ahead of him points-wise and we may see 110 points or more.

We agree that this won't change his value and to me this is not worth $12.5M to this Leafs team, IMO.

It's a cap world, if Marner can't bring it in the playoffs then we need to reallocate his dollars to a roster formula that could get us over the hump. If he does bring it in the playoffs then we know he is capable of doing that, right now we don't know that he has that capability.

No, we know he doesn't. He is post prime now. He will go downhill until his contract reeks. You are going to pay him into decline like Tavares? Why?

 

[The Shrike]

Tavares will drop to 50 pts this year.. I would wait before resigning him.Just saying may need his money to upgrade next year.

His shooting percentage was quite low last year, so I'd guess he'll score around 5 more goals and 70 points overall. While that's not Sidney Crosby beast mode 94 points, or $11 million worth of production, it would still be very respectable 2nd line centre numbers. They just need to get his AAV down to match.

 

[Captain Crunch]

At this point last year, Matthews and Nylander hadn’t been extended either. Matthews was late August, Nylander January. I wouldn’t read anything into it.

Yeah, I know. It's just that last year Tre said publicly it was a priority, whereas this year he hasn't said anything. But you may be right, much ado about nothing.

 

[conFABulator]

Noting.. the the "premier" C's available as UFA's next year, appear to be Granlund, Gourde and Dvorak in that order. These aren't upgrades.

Otherwise, we are looking to trade for that upgrade, and I'm not sure we have the currency, outside of Marner... who will be a UFA anyway... so we might not even have him to trade.

2025 NHL Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NHL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

That's a pretty weak FA centre crop. For me, this means two things:

• We absolutely have to try to find our 2C from within. It really, really helps our cause if ONE of Nylander, Marner, Domi, Holmberg, or Cowan could play that role. Tavares should not be considered the answer the year after this year.
• Tavares knows who else is a FA centre next year and he knows he could probably get more than he is worth on the open market because of this. He only comes back to Toronto at a discount if he WANTS to. We make him a reasonable offer and he accepts or he doesn't, there is no protracted negotiation.

So, for this year, in service of this year's goals and next year's goals we should start with:

Knies Matthews Domi
Holmberg Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann
Dewar Kampf Jarnkrok
Cowan (for at least nine games)

 

[Evilhomer]

Tavares will drop to 50 pts this year.. I would wait before resigning him.Just saying may need his money to upgrade next year.

Nah, he will still get so much power play time that he will end up with at least 70 points. The Leafs will still be one of the highest scoring teams in the league.

 

[conFABulator]

No, we know he doesn't. He is post prime now. He will go downhill until his contract reeks. You are going to pay him into decline like Tavares? Why?

Yes, I am paying Marner for the next eight years if I believe he can produce at above a point per game in the regular season, AND playoffs, AND the big games. 8 * $12.5M would age very nicely in the rising cap NHL.
Without some playoff proof points I happily let him walk this offseason.

 

[-DeMo-]

If Marner goes out and gets 28 points in 21 playoff games that doesn't change his value for you?

You sort of ignored my entire point, which in part agreed with your point. We know what Marner is in the regular season. I imagine his best seasons are ahead of him points-wise and we may see 110 points or more.

We agree that this won't change his value and to me this is not worth $12.5M to this Leafs team, IMO.

It's a cap world, if Marner can't bring it in the playoffs then we need to reallocate his dollars to a roster formula that could get us over the hump. If he does bring it in the playoffs then we know he is capable of doing that, right now we don't know that he has that capability.

no I wont believe Marner will have changed or became more valuable if he has a good playoffs. this is a contract year and I've watched 6-7 years of his playoff performances. how does one good one prove to me he's that guy going forward and not the guy we've seen for the last 7 playoffs? I'll believe the consistency over his career then one year.

I also seems weird to me that you expect him to improve offensively at 28 and become a consistent 110 point guy when his 5 of his last 6 season have fallen in the 90-100 point range. could he have a great year and get 110 at some point in his next contract sure but he's been so consistent at 90-100 for the last 6 it's hard to see him stalling for so long only to get to another level in his late 20's.

 

[Sypher04]

no I wont believe Marner will have changed or became more valuable if he has a good playoffs. this is a contract year and I've watched 6-7 years of his playoff performances. how does one good one prove to me he's that guy going forward and not the guy we've seen for the last 7 playoffs? I'll believe the consistency over his career then one year.

I also seems weird to me that you expect him to improve offensively at 28 and become a consistent 110 point guy when his 5 of his last 6 season have fallen in the 90-100 point range. could he have a great year and get 110 at some point in his next contract sure but he's been so consistent at 90-100 for the last 6 it's hard to see him stalling for so long only to get to another level in his late 20's.

I mean a 28 year old Nylander improved by 11 points this past season.

 

[Sypher04]

A little surprised Nick Cousins remains unsigned having just won a cup as a 4th liner in Florida you’d think he would be able to land another 4th line gig at cheap. (33 playoff games the last 2 years, even if he only played 12 this time)

 

[conFABulator]

no I wont believe Marner will have changed or became more valuable if he has a good playoffs. this is a contract year and I've watched 6-7 years of his playoff performances. how does one good one prove to me he's that guy going forward and not the guy we've seen for the last 7 playoffs? I'll believe the consistency over his career then one year.

I also seems weird to me that you expect him to improve offensively at 28 and become a consistent 110 point guy when his 5 of his last 6 season have fallen in the 90-100 point range. could he have a great year and get 110 at some point in his next contract sure but he's been so consistent at 90-100 for the last 6 it's hard to see him stalling for so long only to get to another level in his late 20's.

I guess we just don't see it the same way.

I believe players and people can grow, develop and improve.

Right now, we all know that Marner can put up 100 points, play a defensively strong game, and kill penalties. What we don't know is if he CAN do these things in the playoffs and big games.

If he DOES play at a very strong level in the playoffs then we know CAN do it. Does one year guarantee he will do it every year? Of course not, but this is a relevant question for every player and contract.

Just because Matthews scored 69 goals last year, does that mean he will do it next year? No. However, years of history suggest he will score at a high rate moving forward.

That's the thing about Marner. He has demonstrated he can consistently play at a high level, he has also shown he doesn't do that in the playoffs. Once he shows he CAN do it in the playoffs why wouldn't we believe he now WILL do it in future playoffs?

 

[Clark4Ever]

I think we should sign Alex Nylander to a league minimum deal to bolster the bottom six. He had a strong finish to the season in Columbus.