Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

Updated Capwages a good replacement for CapFriendly. https://capwages.com/

  • Close by no cigar

    Votes: 17 30.4%
  • It will do until something better

    Votes: 31 55.4%
  • I like https://www.spotrac.com/nhl

    Votes: 2 3.6%
  • I'm dropping another

    Votes: 6 10.7%

  • Total voters
    56
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hamzarocks

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Jul 22, 2012
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Pickering, Ontario
They need to give Jarnkrok a shot at Center.
Hes never worked there for long I beleive

The preds tried him there and he wasnt as effective as the wing, him and Colton Scissons were two guys back in 2010s they were trying to develop into higher lineup guys/potentially centers

Jarkrok fell off hard last season. His first year he could play top 6 in the reg season

Last year he had a lot of injuries, his shot wasnt there and he didnt show drive that he had Y1

Playoffs he fared as he has his whole career
 
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jaric1862

Registered User
Jan 14, 2014
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Hes never worked there for long I beleive

The preds tried him there and he wasnt as effective as the wing, him and Colton Scissons were two guys back in 2010s they were trying to develop into higher lineup guys/potentially centers

Jarkrok fell off hard last season. His first year he could play top 6 in the reg season

Last year he had a lot of injuries, his shot wasnt there and he didnt show drive that he had Y1

Playoffs he fared as he has his whole career

I'm thinking they should keep him as a stopgap there until they get someone more effective at the deadline.
 

-DeMo-

Registered User
Nov 12, 2006
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Huntsville Ontario
I guess we just don't see it the same way.

I believe players and people can grow, develop and improve.

Right now, we all know that Marner can put up 100 points, play a defensively strong game, and kill penalties. What we don't know is if he CAN do these things in the playoffs and big games.

If he DOES play at a very strong level in the playoffs then we know CAN do it. Does one year guarantee he will do it every year? Of course not, but this is a relevant question for every player and contract.

Just because Matthews scored 69 goals last year, does that mean he will do it next year? No. However, years of history suggest he will score at a high rate moving forward.

That's the thing about Marner. He has demonstrated he can consistently play at a high level, he has also shown he doesn't do that in the playoffs. Once he shows he CAN do it in the playoffs why wouldn't we believe he now WILL do it in future playoffs?

millions of dollars have been spent on July 1st because GM's thought the player they signed Developed and grew but the reality is they didn't. It was just a career year. this isn't a player at the end of there ELC or at the end of a bridge deal. nor is it a scenario where Mitch has continued to grow from an offensive stand point. he's been so consistent that again bad or good year I would expect to get a 90-100 point guy if we re-signed the player. thats who he's been for the past 6 season's.

my point is that I have had 7 playoffs to watch Marner and if he finally actually has a good playoff why should I believe that will be the player I would expect from now on and not just a more committed player because of his contract? why is this all of a sudden the year Mitch gets it?

let me reiterate I think Mitch is one of the best wingers in the game, and he's shown amazing consistency year over year, and I honestly expect him to be re-signed. my point all along is that even if he has a great playoffs that wouldn't change what I'd be willing to give him on a contract. like I'm in the 11-12.5 million range but a good playoffs doesn't get him to 13 in my books one good year doesn't earn you nothing. consistency does in my books.
 

conFABulator

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Apr 11, 2021
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millions of dollars have been spent on July 1st because GM's thought the player they signed Developed and grew but the reality is they didn't. It was just a career year. this isn't a player at the end of there ELC or at the end of a bridge deal. nor is it a scenario where Mitch has continued to grow from an offensive stand point. he's been so consistent that again bad or good year I would expect to get a 90-100 point guy if we re-signed the player. thats who he's been for the past 6 season's.

my point is that I have had 7 playoffs to watch Marner and if he finally actually has a good playoff why should I believe that will be the player I would expect from now on and not just a more committed player because of his contract? why is this all of a sudden the year Mitch gets it?

let me reiterate I think Mitch is one of the best wingers in the game, and he's shown amazing consistency year over year, and I honestly expect him to be re-signed. my point all along is that even if he has a great playoffs that wouldn't change what I'd be willing to give him on a contract. like I'm in the 11-12.5 million range but a good playoffs doesn't get him to 13 in my books one good year doesn't earn you nothing. consistency does in my books.
What?!? Millions of dollars is spent on contracts that are banking on the player developing and growing, because all players do this.

William Nylander? Remember he was overpaid and then a bargain? That's because he grew and developed as a player. Draisatl? That $8.5M AAV sure seemed like a lot at one point, didn't it?

I am not saying we should sign/extend Marner because we believe he will continue to grow and develop and that this growth will include playoff performance. I am saying he should show us, prove it and if/once he does then that will be who he is...a guy that can produce in the playoffs.

I actually don't understand your position. You believe a person is done developing at 28 years old and if they show something they never previously showed it doesn't matter? It should be discounted completely?

What about Knies? Should we offer him a contract that only reflects what he has done so far in his career?
 

TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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Unless Minten or Quillan make the roster out of camp I'm guessing they put Domi at 3C between two defensively responsible wingers like McMann, Knies, or Jarnkrok.

That leaves a battle for one top 6 left wing spot between Cowan, Grebyonkin, and Robertson (if he signs fast enough)

Cowan/Grebyonkin - Matthews - Marner
Knies - Tavares - Nylander
McMann - Domi - Jarnkrok
Dewar - Kampf -Holmberg
 

-DeMo-

Registered User
Nov 12, 2006
5,577
431
Huntsville Ontario
What?!? Millions of dollars is spent on contracts that are banking on the player developing and growing, because all players do this.

William Nylander? Remember he was overpaid and then a bargain? That's because he grew and developed as a player. Draisatl? That $8.5M AAV sure seemed like a lot at one point, didn't it?

I am not saying we should sign/extend Marner because we believe he will continue to grow and develop and that this growth will include playoff performance. I am saying he should show us, prove it and if/once he does then that will be who he is...a guy that can produce in the playoffs.

I actually don't understand your position. You believe a person is done developing at 28 years old and if they show something they never previously showed it doesn't matter? It should be discounted completely?

What about Knies? Should we offer him a contract that only reflects what he has done so far in his career?

you don't understand that I view things over the long term to be more important and a more clear indication of future performance then the short term performance? and therefore put more stock into it when looking at UFA contracts and what someone deserves? I mean it's pretty simple really.

and quit miss representing what I'm saying about people improving... I've never said players can't improve past 28 everyone's different but Marners past points to him being the player we currently see, he's been this player for 6 years. I expect him to continue for another 5-6 before he starts his decline in his career.

also if you plan on giving examples to fit your point of view please give ones that somewhat fit the same mold not two players in Drai and Nylander who had 2 and 3 years of NHL experience and in there early 20's as players who grew and developed after they signed there contracts. there not even remotely comparable to Marner today. Neither is Knies that's a ridiculous comp as well. I mean that fact that those are who you had to point to instead of someone signing a big UFA deal and then developing and growing into there deal speaks volumes of itself to not really have good comparables like atleast bring up someone like Panarin/Tkachuk there much better arguments for you.
 

conFABulator

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Apr 11, 2021
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you don't understand that I view things over the long term to be more important and a more clear indication of future performance then the short term performance? and therefore put more stock into it when looking at UFA contracts and what someone deserves? I mean it's pretty simple really.

and quit miss representing what I'm saying about people improving... I've never said players can't improve past 28 everyone's different but Marners past points to him being the player we currently see, he's been this player for 6 years. I expect him to continue for another 5-6 before he starts his decline in his career.

also if you plan on giving examples to fit your point of view please give ones that somewhat fit the same mold not two players in Drai and Nylander who had 2 and 3 years of NHL experience and in there early 20's as players who grew and developed after they signed there contracts. there not even remotely comparable to Marner today. Neither is Knies that's a ridiculous comp as well. I mean that fact that those are who you had to point to instead of someone signing a big UFA deal and then developing and growing into there deal speaks volumes of itself to not really have good comparables like atleast bring up someone like Panarin/Tkachuk there much better arguments for you.
I am not making comparisons of Draisatl and Nylander to Marner, I am using them as counters to your position it's a mistake to sign someone to a contract based on what a player is projected to become. I think these are two of the many examples that illustrate sometimes it is the best move. Knies is an example of where the Leafs should employ this approach themselves, pay for future expectations as it might get us a deal.

I don't know what your history of posts would show me, but it feels like you might have a separate set of rules for Marner. You say that players CAN improve after the age of 28. Marner is 27 this season. Why can he not do what others have done? Why so sure?

Do you want an actual comparison? How about Hyman? What about Hyman's playoff performance before the age of 28 suggested he would develop in the player he has become. He had five goals in 32 playoff games by the time he was 28 years old and 30 goals in the 53 games since then. Why exactly is it out of the realm of possibility that Marner could have the same metamorphosis?

I am not saying that Marner WILL do this, I am not at all sure he has it in him. What I am saying is if he does do it, he will have done it and why is that not the player he is then? You seem to be suggesting that even if Marner has a breakout playoff performance that he would never do it again, that it is a blip and not the beginning of a new era for him. Again, why so sure?
 

Leaf Fans

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Sep 29, 2017
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TMLBlueandWhite

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Feb 2, 2023
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Leafs trade Marner, McCabe,
St Louis trades Parayko, Schenn

Leafs trade Tavares, Liljegren, Danford, Minten, 1st(2026)
Washington trades Carlson, McMichael, Thompson

Domi(3.75)/Matthews(13.5)/Nylander(11.5)
Knies(1)/Schenn(6.5)/Cowan(1)
Robertson(1)/McMichael(1)/Jarnkrok(2)
McMann(1)/Kampf(2.5)/Dewar(1)
*Reaves(1.35), Holmberg(1)

Reilly(7.5)/Carlson(8)
OEL(3.5)/Parayko(6.5)
Benoit(1)/Tanev(4.5)
*Hapankaa(1.5)

Stolarz (2.5)
Woll (1)
Thompson (1)

Total = 85.1 (2.9 remaining)
 

hamzarocks

Registered User
Jul 22, 2012
21,617
15,230
Pickering, Ontario
Leafs trade Marner, McCabe,
St Louis trades Parayko, Schenn

Leafs trade Tavares, Liljegren, Danford, Minten, 1st(2026)
Washington trades Carlson, McMichael, Thompson

Domi(3.75)/Matthews(13.5)/Nylander(11.5)
Knies(1)/Schenn(6.5)/Cowan(1)
Robertson(1)/McMichael(1)/Jarnkrok(2)
McMann(1)/Kampf(2.5)/Dewar(1)
*Reaves(1.35), Holmberg(1)

Reilly(7.5)/Carlson(8)
OEL(3.5)/Parayko(6.5)
Benoit(1)/Tanev(4.5)
*Hapankaa(1.5)

Stolarz (2.5)
Woll (1)
Thompson (1)

Total = 85.1 (2.9 remaining)
Bad value on marner trade

Marner is still worth alone for then Parayako. B Schenn is pretty washed and McCabe the better asset at this pt

The 2nd deal is quite a lot of assets 2026 1st, Minten (meh) Danford to Get good value but idk if the capitals want to deal John Carlson who is their 1D and best d-man in franchise history. Tavares and Carlson both needing to waive NMCs likely kills any chace of a deal around this framework
 

-DeMo-

Registered User
Nov 12, 2006
5,577
431
Huntsville Ontario
I am not making comparisons of Draisatl and Nylander to Marner, I am using them as counters to your position it's a mistake to sign someone to a contract based on what a player is projected to become. I think these are two of the many examples that illustrate sometimes it is the best move. Knies is an example of where the Leafs should employ this approach themselves, pay for future expectations as it might get us a deal.

I don't know what your history of posts would show me, but it feels like you might have a separate set of rules for Marner. You say that players CAN improve after the age of 28. Marner is 27 this season. Why can he not do what others have done? Why so sure?

Do you want an actual comparison? How about Hyman? What about Hyman's playoff performance before the age of 28 suggested he would develop in the player he has become. He had five goals in 32 playoff games by the time he was 28 years old and 30 goals in the 53 games since then. Why exactly is it out of the realm of possibility that Marner could have the same metamorphosis?

I am not saying that Marner WILL do this, I am not at all sure he has it in him. What I am saying is if he does do it, he will have done it and why is that not the player he is then? You seem to be suggesting that even if Marner has a breakout playoff performance that he would never do it again, that it is a blip and not the beginning of a new era for him. Again, why so sure?
I've stated multiple times now why I think Marner is the player he is, ITS HIS CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 6 YEARS!

let me ask you a question if Marner goes out next year and has a healthy season but only produces 70 points would he now only be worth 7-8 million and not closer to around 12 like he is today?
 

TMLBlueandWhite

Registered User
Feb 2, 2023
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2,027
Bad value on marner trade

Marner is still worth alone for then Parayako. B Schenn is pretty washed and McCabe the better asset at this pt

The 2nd deal is quite a lot of assets 2026 1st, Minten (meh) Danford to Get good value but idk if the capitals want to deal John Carlson who is their 1D and best d-man in franchise history. Tavares and Carlson both needing to waive NMCs likely kills any chace of a deal around this framework

The return on a Marner trade is secondary to getting him off the team imo.

The Washington offer is overwhelming for sure. But the Leafs get a proven ready now centre with plenty of upside in exchange for a hope, a wish, and a prayer. My thinkIng is Washington only cares about OV's goals record and Tavares is still a better centre than PLD.

This trade sets them up for both the record chase and the inevitable rebuild after.
 
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notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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Was he as consistent as Marner has been by pacing 90-100 points in 5 of his last 6 season?
Marner's ppg over the last four seasons has gone 1.22 - 1.35 - 1.24 - 1.23. Consistent, suggesting he will stay about the same, assuming other factors do.

Nylander's ppg over the last four seasons has gone 0.82 - 0.99 - 1.06 - 1.20. Improving each year despite the decline in his usual centre, suggesting he may continue to improve.
 

notDatsyuk

Registered User
Jul 20, 2018
11,472
9,476
Nope.

Over past 5 years:

Tavares - 137 goals
Matthews - 257 goals

marner - 288 assists
Nylander - 204 assists

Hmmm?
So Marner is dependent on Matthews scoring (89% of his assists), while Nylander is much less dependent on Tavares (67% of his assists)?

To clarify, I'm not suggesting that they have assisted on all the goals, but just that there is a higher correlation.
 
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Burnie97

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Jun 26, 2015
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Canada
At this point ... not sure exactly what will happen with Robertson.

I'm starting to think if they don't do much else that a couple kids are getting a shot and have a good chance at sticking on the roster.

If that happens I think maybe that's when we'll see a trade or 2 like kampf or Jarnkrok to free up a bit more cap space
 
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conFABulator

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Apr 11, 2021
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I've stated multiple times now why I think Marner is the player he is, ITS HIS CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 6 YEARS!

let me ask you a question if Marner goes out next year and has a healthy season but only produces 70 points would he now only be worth 7-8 million and not closer to around 12 like he is today?
That's a fair point, but it speaks to a dip or a down year regression, rather than growth and upward development.

The trajectory usually is upward and forward progress until about 28, plateau, and then the decline. For this reason, I am not interested in paying Tavares based on past performance. If Marner only got 70 points, I would offer him less moving forward than if he got 105 points.

Seriously though, if Marner has a good season (95+ points) and then we have a different playoff story for the team and the player; maybe we lose in a hard flight conference final in six or seven, maybe Mitch is a point+ a gamer with many of those coming in big games along the way, maybe a GWG or two, then this absolutely an input into our negotiating position (for me).

I have never said that this is likely, or that I even think it would happen. I am just saying these are the circumstances where I don't just let him walk or "lowball" him. I was laying out scenarios for the season and offseason. I said we don't sign him now, we let him play it out or let him walk. We only consider a resign under circumstances like the ones I outlined above.

I still don't understand how anyone can disagree with that.
 

The Shadow

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Feb 9, 2013
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What’s the deal with Nick Cousins? Is he worth a PTO? Seems strange he wasn’t signed yet for even league minimum
 
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