Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[aingefan]

Bennett is an odd choice, considering he missed almost a quarter of the season, and didn't play with Tkachuk and Verhaeghe all the time.

Without discussing 'overpaid' as I don't think that's his fault, yes, he's been 2C calibre for the past few years, marginal 2C/3C last year, and should be 3C this year. As I said, the numbers are bad enough, but watching his play makes it pretty clear. If you disagree, fine, we can disagree.

I think the person who, now, would be a better 2C is Nylander.

I think for this year at least, while we still have Marner and Tavares, the best thing would be Matthews with Domi, Nylander with Marner, and Tavares at 3C.

I wonder if Holmberg is a strong enough defensive player to support a Holmberg-Nylander-Grebenkin line.
He can hold his own with offensive producers, and Greb was productive in the K, has wheels and doesn’t mind getting chippy.
Edit to add: in this scenario, JT is flanked by MM and NR or BM.
AM flanked by MD and MK.

 

[notDatsyuk]

JT didn't play with Marner much last year, as you can see here:

John Tavares - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

Find out John Tavares's latest linemates, game logs, advanced stats, player cards, news and analysis from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

Also, the average second liner produces at a 50pt/82g pace. JT obviously clears that comfortably.

The average 3rd liner produces at a 34pt/82 games pace. JT doubles that pace.

Objectively, JT produces an output closer to a typical 1st liner than 2nd liner, let alone 3rd liner.

Review of Production Based on Time on Ice

How many points does the average 1st liner in the NHL get each regular season? What’s the typical production from forwards getting second line minutes? And how do Winnipeg Jet forwards compare to…

www.arcticicehockey.com

I never suggested JT played with Marner.

The average second liner doesn't play with Nylander. Neither does the average third liner.

Objectively, Tavares, even playing with Nylander last year, was producing closer to a 2nd liner, and obviously had declined from the previous year, and will be expected to decline further, making him, objectively, a third liner.

(Looking at your attachment, it seems he spent most of his time with an appreciably better than average 1st liner.)

Personally I would be very happy if his play this coming year reverted to what it was a few years ago. I just don't expect it.

 

[Fogelhund]

I wonder if Holmberg is a strong enough defensive player to support a Holmberg-Nylander-Grebenkin line.
He can hold his own with offensive producers, and Greb was productive in the K, has wheels and doesn’t mind getting chippy.
Edit to add: in this scenario, JT is flanked by MM and NR or BM.
AM flanked by MD and MK.

Holmberg could be the C in that scenario, if Nylander doesn't work there.... Holmberg does play more as a natural C... either could take faceoffs.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I wonder if Holmberg is a strong enough defensive player to support a Holmberg-Nylander-Grebenkin line.
He can hold his own with offensive producers, and Greb was productive in the K, has wheels and doesn’t mind getting chippy.
Edit to add: in this scenario, JT is flanked by MM and NR or BM.
AM flanked by MD and MK.

I don't know much about Grebenkin, but I would much rather have Marner on the second line with Nylander than down on the third.

 

[Fogelhund]

I don't know much about Grebenkin, but I would much rather have Marner on the second line with Nylander than down on the third.

I think sometimes we get too caught up in the semantics of first line, second line, third line.... I think the point here is to spread out the players, and have three very good scoring lines, which could make us very dangerous.... The idea is to give more or less equal playing time to these three lines 5v5.

 

[LeafSteel]

I think sometimes we get too caught up in the semantics of first line, second line, third line.... I think the point here is to spread out the players, and have three very good scoring lines, which could make us very dangerous.... The idea is to give more or less equal playing time to these three lines 5v5.

This.

The harder teams to play against are the ones that are able to roll multiple lines that are a threat to score and can play meaningful minutes without being a liability.

The value of balance and depth cannot be overstated, not just in the playoffs.

 

[ULF_55]

What is your production expectation for a #2 C?

At least 66 points.

 

[WTFMAN99]

At this point, I don't think they can move on from Tavares.... I just hope he takes a $4 mil, or close to deal, so that it gives us some flexibility. Bennett's 41 points pro-rates to what... 48 points in a 82 game sched or so... just a guess... so the point still stands.. (and I like Bennett).

I also doubt they move on from Marner... ugg... I mean, my favourite mock trade was for an ELC 2C... so, I get the need...

I was hoping for Karlsson, legit 2-way 2C under 6M and something else like Korczak.

I don't think they can bring Marner back, he's just not worth it.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I think sometimes we get too caught up in the semantics of first line, second line, third line.... I think the point here is to spread out the players, and have three very good scoring lines, which could make us very dangerous.... The idea is to give more or less equal playing time to these three lines 5v5.

I think that idea works fairly well with two lines, but not three. With three you're looking at more like a 1 and two 2s. Which isn't necessarily bad.

This.

The harder teams to play against are the ones that are able to roll multiple lines that are a threat to score and can play meaningful minutes without being a liability.

The value of balance and depth cannot be overstated, not just in the playoffs.

True, but 'meaningful minutes' isn't necessarily the same as equal minutes.

 

[aingefan]

I don't know much about Grebenkin, but I would much rather have Marner on the second line with Nylander than down on the third.

Yeah, I think you’d be looking at pretty even PT between the three top lines, give or take a minute or two.

 

[LeafEgo]

I don't know much about Grebenkin, but I would much rather have Marner on the second line with Nylander than down on the third.

As Leaf luck would have it we don't seem to get surplus value out of pairing up our big dollar forwards. There are so many restrictions when trying to slot everyone in there's no longer any way to do it.

Our last chance of getting synergistic value out of these stars and not breaking any restrictions is centering Willy on L2 and pairing him up with Marner. Matty mans 1C, JT mans 3C.

Otherwise we're going to end up with Matty/Willy, JT/Marner, ugh.

I suppose Berube could change the dynamics we're working with, but the opening day lineup might make me cry.

 

[Kurtz]

I never suggested JT played with Marner.

The average second liner doesn't play with Nylander. Neither does the average third liner.

Objectively, Tavares, even playing with Nylander last year, was producing closer to a 2nd liner, and obviously had declined from the previous year, and will be expected to decline further, making him, objectively, a third liner.

(Looking at your attachment, it seems he spent most of his time with an appreciably better than average 1st liner.)

Personally I would be very happy if his play this coming year reverted to what it was a few years ago. I just don't expect it.

Funny thing is, JT never needed elite scoring wings to set him up. In Long Island he played best with good grinders, like Knies/Mcmann types.

I don't have the stats in front of me, but I doubt that Nylander has too many primary assists to JT. Their styles aren't overly complementary and I don't think either guy would suffer away from one another. Nylander thrives in open space with his speed, while JT has always been a more grinder, phone booth type.

 

[Antropovsky]

Funny thing is, JT never needed elite scoring wings to set him up. In Long Island he played best with good grinders, like Knies/Mcmann types.

I don't have the stats in front of me, but I doubt that Nylander has too many primary assists to JT. Their styles aren't overly complementary and I don't think either guy would suffer away from one another. Nylander thrives in open space with his speed, while JT has always been a more grinder, phone booth type.

Agreed, advanced stats agree too. Seems both Matthews and Tavares play better with north south, physical players. Bunting per advanced stats was very productive with Matthews. Matthews was on an entire different level of production with Domi and Bertuzzi vs anyone else.

Both Nylander and Marner are perimeter offense guys who are more off the rush offense but have no cycle, forechecking ability.

Nylanders speed/shot combo makes him more dangerous off the rush than the others.

This season, Marner produced alot of goals by getting behind the D on broken plays that Leafs recovered and scoring on the subsequent odd man rush/breakaway.

Ive always said that I think Matthews and Tavares in 2019-2020, (the early Tavares years) couldve been as productive as Draisaitl/Mcdavid...probably even more. Especially if Hyman was on their wing.

 

[Fogelhund]

"Perimeter" player?

 

[conFABulator]

As Leaf luck would have it we don't seem to get surplus value out of pairing up our big dollar forwards. There are so many restrictions when trying to slot everyone in there's no longer any way to do it.

Our last chance of getting synergistic value out of these stars and not breaking any restrictions is centering Willy on L2 and pairing him up with Marner. Matty mans 1C, JT mans 3C.

Otherwise we're going to end up with Matty/Willy, JT/Marner, ugh.

I suppose Berube could change the dynamics we're working with, but the opening day lineup might make me cry.

Agree..

Knies Matthews Domi
XXXX Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann

XXXX = Jarnkrok, Holmberg, Cowan or Grebyonkin.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Funny thing is, JT never needed elite scoring wings to set him up. In Long Island he played best with good grinders, like Knies/Mcmann types.

I don't have the stats in front of me, but I doubt that Nylander has too many primary assists to JT. Their styles aren't overly complementary and I don't think either guy would suffer away from one another. Nylander thrives in open space with his speed, while JT has always been a more grinder, phone booth type.

At even strength (presumably when they are on the ice together) Nylander had more primary assists than Tavares had goals, and almost twice as many goals as Tavares had primary assists. He's much more dependant on Nylander than the other way around.

I completely agree that they have very different playing styles which don't compliment each other, which has made me question that pairing for several years. I've been saying for a long time that, despite their different styles, they have both been producing. But watching JT last year and especially in the playoffs, he's not producing. There were several times just in the playoffs where he completely flubbed great setups from Willy.

I think it's long past time to separate them, and if we are looking at second and third lines, I'd say Willy is much more the second line player now; especially if he can play centre, which may solve our 2C/3C problem.

 

[pspot]

I was okay with resigning Domi after I noticed he did well on faceoffs. With putting money to D was thinking Matthews/Domi/JT down the middle

Did he and Marner ever play together in London?

 

[Captain Crunch]

I agree with this. If we assume that Marner cannot be moved for something of value by the TDL, and at this point I think that is a reasonable assumption, then I see only two viable options:

1. He plays out this contract and we let him walk at the end of another disappointing playoff for him. We convert his cap space into something of value...say Ekblad, with money leftover for something else (small)
2. He leads us to playoff success, meaning be is a big reason for success....like winning two rounds at least and then we resign him to $12M contract. If he wants more we let him walk and revert to option (1).

In both cases, he is playing for a contract all year and playoffs and he knows it.

Sorry, but that's a big NO from me. I would be okay with resigning him at that amount IF we won the Cup or made it to the finals with him playing a major part in doing so.

 

[uncleben]

One thread being put on pause because we cannot behave ourselves is not an invitation to come into another thread and continue the conversation and derail it.

This is not a past playoffs thread, this is not a Marner thread.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

When is DeWar's arb date? I thought DeWar's get more done

 

[WTFMAN99]

When is DeWar's arb date? I thought DeWar's get more done

Apparently these aren't public anymore but I feel like if that gets resolved, it may let things move forward a bit.

July is kind of a dead month, wouldn't be surprised if the league started to wake up early-mid August to tidy up any final outstanding items.

 

[ACC1224]

One thread being put on pause because we cannot behave ourselves is not an invitation to come into another thread and continue the conversation and derail it.

This is not a past playoffs thread, this is not a Marner thread.

How long is the 'hiatus' ?

 

[Budz]

It’s time for the core 4 to drive 3 lines - end of story.

Here are my lines (if Marner cannot be dealt).

Knies Matthews Domi
Marner (Holmberg/Minten) Nylander
McMann JT Jarnkrok

 

[Phion Keneuf]

It’s time for the core 4 to drive 3 lines - end of story.

He are my lines (if Marner cannot be dealt).

Knies Matthews Domi
Marner (Holmberg/Minten) Nylander
McMann JT Jarnkrok

Yup agreed. Those are the same lines I posted a couple weeks back.

I’d try Cowan where Jarnkrok is for the first few games. Holmberg 2C (kinda sad) but I think it’ll work with Marner and Nylander. Flip those wings too WN LW and MM RW

 

[Budz]

Yup agreed. Those are the same lines I posted a couple weeks back.

I’d try Cowan where Jarnkrok is for the first few games. Holmberg 2C (kinda sad) but I think it’ll work with Marner and Nylander. Flip those wings too WN LW and MM RW

I think Holmberg can hold his own, chase pucks and let his star wingers fly around.