Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Legion34]

None of it is revenue. Matching it doesn't change that.

It could be defined as revenue in the new cba

 

[Legion34]

1.) it doesn’t give me the “life
Of the contracts” but considering Willy is front loaded I don’t see how it can possibly be less. Aho will take home more than Nylander over the life of the contract due to taxes

2.) the 14% average is the standard
Going rate in high tax markets as established by other stars (pre Covid) and openly acknowledged by Igor’s agent who has said he wants 14%
Boston is a mid tax market
Pasta got 13.64%
He is a better player
Still market values around 14%

Not all star players are exactly the same. Karlson/tabares/panarin/kane/toews/thortnon are different values. All got similar %



Not if you Matched it.
as long as owners paid into an owners pot the same money it would be the same.

What makes Peterson a star.
Nylander was top 10 in scoring.
What made panarin a star? Marleau?
Tavares (he was a hart finalist but no major trophies)
It’s just the way of the world.

It’s the market. Like not all 1st overalls are the same

The market price for “star” players was around 14% not all stars are going to be what your subjective rankings are

And Willie took 13.1% not 14.

 

[Legion34]

1.) it doesn’t give me the “life
Of the contracts” but considering Willy is front loaded I don’t see how it can possibly be less. Aho will take home more than Nylander over the life of the contract due to taxes

2.) the 14% average is the standard
Going rate in high tax markets as established by other stars (pre Covid) and openly acknowledged by Igor’s agent who has said he wants 14%
Boston is a mid tax market
Pasta got 13.64%
He is a better player
Still market values around 14%

Not all star players are exactly the same. Karlson/tabares/panarin/kane/toews/thortnon are different values. All got similar %



Not if you Matched it.
as long as owners paid into an owners pot the same money it would be the same.

What makes Peterson a star.
Nylander was top 10 in scoring.
What made panarin a star? Marleau?
Tavares (he was a hart finalist but no major trophies)
It’s just the way of the world.

It’s the market. Like not all 1st overalls are the same

The market price for “star” players was around 14% not all stars are going to be what your subjective rankings are

And Willie took

Don't worry - I calculated it and of course Nylander brings home more.

Is Nylander a star now? What makes him more of a star than Aho or Larkin? Both of those players are the same age are starting their contracts the same season, are both 1C's and have both lead their teams in points for 6 of the last 7 seasons. Nylander plays a less important position, is a negative player defensively and barely outscored them this season.

I struggle to see how Nylander is in the same conversation as Karlsson/Tavares/Panarin/Kane/Toews/Thornton. Panarin is the only one who is close but he put up 20 more points than his next closest team mate both seasons in CBJ before signing and has since proved that wasn't a fluke by outscoring all his teammates in NY every year.

How did you calculate it? Can you show me on cap friendly. Because it says otherwise.

Can you show the math? Or are you making things up?

We bought high on Nylander. Totally agree. He is a multiple time 40g scorer who was top 10 in points. agreed.

Still below the 14% star rate. Not sure if that’s covid or because he was a tier lower.
But not all stars are going to be the same.
Just like not all 1st overalls are the same.

Different years have different players

 

[Dreakmur]

It could be defined as revenue in the new cba

Why would the owners agree? The whole point of the 50/50 split is to keep costs down. Now we think they'll agree to count non-revenue as revenue for no reason other than to increase their costs.

 

[LiseL]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ullmark struggle mightily in Ottawa.

Sens fan here, coming in peace. He used to play in Buffalo when they were the worst team in the NHL and he had good numbers. If we had the same roster as last year, I'd agree with you. We had too many L/D, Chychrun and Branstromm are gone: one was allergic to contact and terrible in the D zone, the other too small to be effective. Joseph was fast but ineffective. Not enough compete on the team, came out flat so many times. We had the worst goaltending in the league: gave up the 1st goal on the 1st shot 22 times last year. Talk about deflating. Lots of injuries (Norris, Chabot, Zub) as well as Pinto's suspension. Also, too much pond hockey and cheating for offense under DJ Smith (no accountability). Our GM Steve Staois stated he wanted to upgrade in goal and defense, bring in vets to change the culture and help the young core take the next step in being pros. I don't know where we'll be at the end of next season, but I expect us to be much better as long as they can remain relatively healthy. I think we will be a bubble team fighting for a wild card spot.

 

[Americanadian]

What makes Peterson a star.

I wouldn't call him a star but I would say he's more valuable than Nylander. He plays C, has a history of strong defensive results and has actually hit 100 points.

Nylander was top 10 in scoring.

Does one top 10 finish make a player a star? Is JT Miller a star with his 2 top 10 finishes? is Gaudreau a star with 2 top 10 finishes? Are Huberdeau or RNH stars with top 10 finishes?

What made panarin a star?

Panarin has lead his team in points the last 7 seasons. Including much higher point totals than Nylander.

Marleau?

When did he ever sign for 13-14% of the cap? Patrick Marleau Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Tavares (he was a hart finalist but no major trophies)

Hart finalist C that lead his team in points every year he was in the league? I'd say that's more valuable than Nylander.

It’s just the way of the world.

It’s the market. Like not all 1st overalls are the same

The market price for “star” players was around 14% not all stars are going to be what your subjective rankings are

And Willie took 13.1% not 14.

As a Leafs fan - do you think Nylander is currently worth the same amount as Pastrnak?

 

[Americanadian]

How did you calculate it? Can you show me on cap friendly. Because it says otherwise.

Can you show the math? Or are you making things up?

Calculate the entire contract by tax % or go year by year. Your pick. Same result. Capfriendly doesn't have a tool to calculate the whole contract to my knowledge. You have to use a good old fashioned calculator.

Also Capfriendly doesn't have a jock tax calculator unless I'm missing something.

 

[LiseL]

Anyways, I'd of liked Chychrun but suspect the Sens wouldn't want to trade him here.

Sens fan here. I don't think it had anything to do with that. Once Steve Staois struck out trying to acquire one of the available in UFA RD, trade was the only way to go. Chychrun put up some decent numbers but he was terrible in his own zone, allergic to contact and was always trying to move the puck with only one hand on his stick resulting in lots of turnovers. If paired with a good defensive partner in Washington, he might be better.

 

[Stephen]

They had to make a decision on Liljegren before free agency opened. They could have offered Roy more and then moved Liljegren (or someone else). We can be over the cap in the off-season.

I think they had a top number on Roy they didn't want to go above and that Liljegren had nothing to with it.

They could have qualified Liljegren and lined up arbitration. Throw they cash at Roy and elect to walk away from any unfavorable arbitration.

It is what it is.

 

[Legion34]

Calculate the entire contract by tax % or go year by year. Your pick. Same result. Capfriendly doesn't have a tool to calculate the whole contract to my knowledge. You have to use a good old fashioned calculator.

Also Capfriendly doesn't have a jock tax calculator unless I'm missing something.

Sure it does. It goes by signing bonuses. Team. Escrow and agent fees. There are multiple. Go look for yourself. It’s still there

 

[Legion34]

I wouldn't call him a star but I would say he's more valuable than Nylander. He plays C, has a history of strong defensive results and has actually hit 100 points.

Does one top 10 finish make a player a star? Is JT Miller a star with his 2 top 10 finishes? is Gaudreau a star with 2 top 10 finishes? Are Huberdeau or RNH stars with top 10 finishes?

Panarin has lead his team in points the last 7 seasons. Including much higher point totals than Nylander.

When did he ever sign for 13-14% of the cap? Patrick Marleau Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Hart finalist C that lead his team in points every year he was in the league? I'd say that's more valuable than Nylander.

As a Leafs fan - do you think Nylander is currently worth the same amount as Pastrnak?

1.) pasta is a clearly better player. He signed for more % I would trade for him. No question

However there is the 9% tax advantage. Is he wanted full boat then maybe not.

2.) my mistake. I thought he and Thornton signed the same time. He took 12.5%. Thornton had 14 and I thought they had the same contract. That was Kane and toews

3.) comparing covid contracts to now doesn’t make sense. 14% was the standard value pre covid.

Covid changed a lot. Players took term. I would have bet on myself. JT miller signed in 2022. RNH signed for 5.5


Comparing contracts from then to now doesn’t make a lot of sense. Look at the contracts given out this year. Boosh and edmonson are almost making Hyman money.

It’s different. We will see what the post Covid standard is

I agree we bought Nylander at peak value. I wanted less. For sure. I’m just looking at pure numbers

 

[Americanadian]

Sure it does. It goes by signing bonuses. Team. Escrow and agent fees. There are multiple. Go look for yourself. It’s still there

I missed the part where it calculated jock tax based on the teams schedule. It also never prompted me for primary residence when the bonus pays out. Can you point me to those calculations?

 

[Americanadian]

1.) pasta is a clearly better player. He signed for more % I would trade for him. No question

Pastrnak signed for 11.25/83.5 (13.47%), Nylander 11.5/88 (13.06%). 1-(13.47/13.06)=.03 or 3%. Would you say Pastrnak is only 3% better than Nylander?

Covid changed a lot. Players took term. I would have bet on myself. JT miller signed in 2022. RNH signed for 5.5

Comparing contracts from then to now doesn’t make a lot of sense. Look at the contracts given out this year. Boosh and edmonson are almost making Hyman money.

It’s different. We will see what the post Covid standard is

I agree we bought Nylander at peak value. I wanted less. For sure. I’m just looking at pure numbers

Pure numbers say the contract is unjustified. Reinhart's deal further proves that which was the original point made here.

 

[Legion34]

I missed the part where it calculated jock tax based on the teams schedule. It also never prompted me for primary residence when the bonus pays out. Can you point me to those calculations?

Read the introduction.
You are deemed to be a resident signing of where you collect your team is. (The American residency for Canadian teams is largely a myth according to articles written by NHL accountants in the athletic)

It calculates jock taxes for Americans not Canadians

 

[Legion34]

Pastrnak signed for 11.25/83.5 (13.47%), Nylander 11.5/88 (13.06%). 1-(13.47/13.06)=.03 or 3%. Would you say Pastrnak is only 3% better than Nylander?

Pure numbers say the contract is unjustified. Reinhart's deal further proves that which was the original point made here.

1.) Reinhardts deal is pretty much the Sam when you account for taxes. It’s at least 8 x 11

2.) what???? Thats not how that works at all.
There are 700 players in the NHL. They make between 1-16% of the cap. You can’t rank 700 people in 16 percent. And give a sliding scale.

that’s a terrible idea. It’s percentage difference. Not raw percent.

5% aav to 10% aav is not 5% difference. It’s double.

That’s not how Math works

Also. .47-.06 is .41…. But I made the Marleau mistake. Neither of us is perfect

 

[IrishInOntario]

Would anyone be interested in Mike Hoffman on a dirt cheap deal if Toronto can't upgrade the forward group via trade, but ultimately parts ways with Nick Robertson? He was in San Jose last year where everyone was awesome, but he put up 3 straight 35 point seasons prior to that in Montreal... I was thinking something like...

Domi-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Tavares-Nylander
Hoffman-Holmberg-Jarnkrok
McMann-Kampf-Grebenkin
Reaves

That team has an obvious hole at 3C that needs upgrading, but I think the rest of the forward group is pretty complete.

 

[LiseL]

l'd like this just to watch Sens fans melt down.

The Dorion era is over

 

[LiseL]

Sens fan here. He's a responsible D but too small to be effective. He's not strong enough to play 3rd pairing and not productive enough to be 2nd pairing. Also not great on the PK and can't quarterback a PP. Ottawa let him walk because his Q/O would've been $2.2 million. But at $900K, it's a good signing.

Knowing Sakic and Colorado, Brannstrom will somehow turn into a 50 pt d-man and make Girard expendable, who will then be traded for a good scoring winger or goalie

 

[Americanadian]

5% aav to 10% aav is not 5% difference. It’s double.

That’s not how Math works

Also. .47-.06 is .41…. But I made the Marleau mistake. Neither of us is perfect

I hope when you get a chance you can re-read this.

13.46 is 3% higher than 13.06 just as 10 is 100% higher than 5.

You make mistakes. I do too - just not in this conversation.

 

[Americanadian]

Read the introduction.
You are deemed to be a resident signing of where you collect your team is.

Is that their assumption or is that the letter of the law?

(The American residency for Canadian teams is largely a myth according to articles written by NHL accountants in the athletic)

Do you have a link to this? I googled it and couldn’t find any articles that meet this criteria.

It calculates jock taxes for Americans not Canadians

I’m not an accountant. Are Canadians exempt from Jock tax? Are Swedes playing in Canada exempt?

 

[Legion34]

I hope when you get a chance you can re-read this.

13.46 is 3% higher than 13.06 just as 10 is 100% higher than 5.

You make mistakes. I do too - just not in this conversation.

Yes you are correct. I thought you were using raw numbers. I was actually coming to ninja edit but you beat me too it lol.

The point is you can’t just slot 700 players in incrementally.
McDavid gets 16
Matthews gets 15.9
Etc.
the market doesn’t do that for 700 plus players.

does a 2 million dollar player have to be twice as good as a 1 million dollar player to be worth it?

does McDavid have to be 16 times better than bedard to be worth his contract?

That’s where it gets silly.

 

[Legion34]

Is that their assumption or is that the letter of the law?

Do you have a link to this? I googled it and couldn’t

find any articles that meet this criteria.

I’m not an accountant. Are Canadians exempt from Jock tax? Are Swedes playing in Canada exempt?

This has come up a bunch.

Generally yes.
You can try to claim it other places (Tavares is being sued) But you would have to show greater financial ties to that area. Which is hard to do when you play 50% here and live here 8 months a year (have to count the days)

Tampa players collect all their sb in Florida taxes.

There is an article in the athletic. It went through an NHL player signing in Canada as a Canadian/american/euro

Basically the conclusion was that Canadians/euros it’s really hard. (Tavares)


Americans technically might be able to swing it but you can’t own a house/long term lease/rental/cars/kids in school etc. or you are deemed Canadian resident for taxes

Most guys just do it for 1 year

 

[Americanadian]

Yes you are correct. I thought you were using raw numbers. I was actually coming to ninja edit but you beat me too it lol.

The point is you can’t just slot 700 players in incrementally.
McDavid gets 16
Matthews gets 15.9
Etc.
the market doesn’t do that for 700 plus players.

does a 2 million dollar player have to be twice as good as a 1 million dollar player to be worth it?

does McDavid have to be 16 times better than bedard to be worth his contract?

That’s where it gets silly.

Why are you using an ELC as a comparison?

I do believe the relationship between a players on-ice value and their pay should be linear.

This has come up a bunch.

Generally yes.
You can try to claim it other places (Tavares is being sued) But you would have to show greater financial ties to that area. Which is hard to do when you play 50% here and live here 8 months a year (have to count the days)

Tampa players collect all their sb in Florida taxes.

There is an article in the athletic. It went through an NHL player signing in Canada as a Canadian/american/euro

Basically the conclusion was that Canadians/euros it’s really hard. (Tavares)


Americans technically might be able to swing it but you can’t own a house/long term lease/rental/cars/kids in school etc. or you are deemed Canadian resident for taxes

Most guys just do it for 1 year

I’ll have to find the article. I’m going off what Allan Walsh has previously mentioned on Twitter and his podcast.

I don’t want to continue arguing taxes on this board. The reason I am so passionate about this point is it drives me insane watching fans excuse incompetent management due to taxes because it makes them feel better. Plenty of teams in high income tax states have won more than 1 round in the Matthews era.

 

[WillNy29]

What about a system in which cap hits are calculated as to what they’d be after taxes? So for instance, if the cap were like $85 million, a team could potentially spend over the cap in gross dollars but once taxes are involved, come in as cap compliant. Maybe I’m not explaining it as I’m meaning it, perhaps it’s a dumb idea. I’d love to hear some thoughts on it in any case, for or against.

this is a bad idea; doesnt account for the use of tax shelter vehicles like RCA's and bonus deferrals in high tax jurisdictions.

Clayton Kershaw has a salary thats laced with bonuses paid out in the offseason when he lives in texas so he pays 0 california tax on it.

RCAs shelter a lot of taxable income and players also have the ability to incorporate for certain types of payments which reduces their tax burden. (Brian Burke did a really good seminar on this for CPAs at Rotman's). the tax thing is a media blowing smoke up our asses

Source: am a CPA

 

[conFABulator]

They could have qualified Liljegren and lined up arbitration. Throw they cash at Roy and elect to walk away from any unfavorable arbitration.

It is what it is.

Yeah. The fear about arbitration is that we don't get Roy or anyone else we want and then we are stuck paying Lily more than we want and on a one year deal. That one seems a bit riskier to me. Liljegren is easily movable with this contract.