Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Dreakmur]

Really does make sense to implement either a separate salary cap by team to account for different taxation but it would be a pain in the ass.

A less pain in the ass move would be implementing a luxury tax.

Why a luxury tax? Of the major sports leagues in North America, the NHL and the NFL don't have a luxury tax while the MLB and NBA do.

Key difference? The NFL can cut guys anytime whereas the NHL has guaranteed contracts.

If we're going to continue with this "parity" bullshit the NHL was so keen on achieving, then we need to actually account for the fact that there is a clear difference in take home pay in certain locations so let's try to even the playing field a bit.

Seems like the simplest solution would be to have a player tax pool that works just like the owners revenue sharing. Let’s say 10% of every contract goes into the pool, and that money gets redistributed based on taxes paid by the players. Basically, the low tax states would pay an extra 10% and the high tax states would pay 10% less… and the middle ones stay put. Not exactly equal, but a lot closer.

This, or course, would have to be approved by the NHLPA.

 

[Menzinger]

Rantanen signed for 1.65M less than Marner. Aho signed for 1.75M less than Nylander. Both those comparables started their contracts the same year. I’d take Aho/Rantanen over Nylander/Marner any day of the week. Carolina/Colorado both have state income tax.

Fox and Makar both signed for <10M in the past 3 years. Both players are more valuable than any Leaf except Matthews. Makar has a better point per game rate in the playoffs than any Leaf.

Pastrnak has outperformed Nylander every single year, by a good margin. Somehow Nylander will make more than him again.

It goes beyond the tax rate. The Leafs management (Treliving and Dubas) are more to blame for the debilitating contracts than the taxes. Taxes are mostly an excuse fans use so they don’t have to blame their favorite players for making the team worse by fighting for every dollar.

You're right that it goes beyond taxes. But there's no denying that the majority of players in the league, including Canadian born players prefer to play in the US than in Canadian markets.

Canadian markets inability to attract talent as well as US teams goes well beyond just Dubas and Tre

 

[Legion34]

It's not a fairy tale that other markets are going to have advantages over others..

For some it's taxes, others it's weather, for some it's low media pressure, among many other factors. Florida teams seemingly are very lucky that they have strong overlap over many of these

Southern US markets are going to have multiple advantages over Canadian cities. You either just have to accept it as it is, or follow a different league or sport

LA. SJ. Anaheim always had to pay top dollar.

California was way more popular and the teams were all competitive. They didn’t get doscounts

 

[LiseL]

Why were the Leafs not interested in Chychrun as that price???

I think the price was low because it included a solid stay-at-home right D. Supposedly, our GM Steve Staios talked to all of the UFA RD but Tanev signed with your team and none of the others wanted to come to Canada. That left a trade as the only option. He wanted to improve the goaltending and defense which he has now done. He also wanted some vets to change the culture in the room so he signed Perron and Amadio. I still can't believe he managed to get rid of Korpisalo's contract to acquire Ullmark. I think Ullmark will sign with us. He doesn't want to go out west or play in a big market. It's all about his wife/kids. Also, his kids love the snow so even Ottawa weather is a plus.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Seems like the simplest solution would be to have a player tax pool that works just like the owners revenue sharing. Let’s say 10% of every contract goes into the pool, and that money gets redistributed based on taxes paid by the players. Basically, the low tax states would pay an extra 10% and the high tax states would pay 10% less… and the middle ones stay put. Not exactly equal, but a lot closer.

This, or course, would have to be approved by the NHLPA.

Yea, NHLPA will never do that, it needs to be a league initiative, the luxury tax would just be a new wrinkle to the CBA like the salary retention was.

LA. SJ. Anaheim always had to pay top dollar.

California was way more popular and the teams were all competitive. They didn’t get doscounts

California taxes are pretty damn high, high cost of living but nice weather.

 

[Dreakmur]

Yea, NHLPA will never do that

They don't really have a reason. It doesn't take money away from the players - it just redistributes it more fairly. Sure, some players would be upset, but the PA is about the whole membership.

it needs to be a league initiative

It should be both the league and the PA, though only the PA could set it up without cooperation from the other side.

the luxury tax would just be a new wrinkle to the CBA like the salary retention was.

A luxury tax would increase the money owners have to spend, which they will strongly oppose.

 

[conFABulator]

It's $4.5M less one replacement salary, so about $3.5M+ to spend (hypothetically).

Absolutely, for some reason I was focused on adding a D man, so we would need to add two F to replace the outgoing ones. I felt like part of the benefit of moving these two is that it opens up spots and opportunity for young guys we already have.

Maybe our best case is that we trade Kampf and Robertson as be open up a spot and some cap space. I say Robertson because be might have the most value of the three of them.

What do we need to add to Kampf + Robertson for McGroarty?

Kampf (or a 4th that we get for him) + Robertson + 2026 1st for McGroarty? That might be too little for Winnipeg and I am not sure Hirvoven, Abrusezze or Quillan make a difference if we add. It doesn't help us this year but it does give us a Big C prospect who can help next year.

For this year we would a couple million in Kampf savings. Does that get us anything or just accrue to the TDL?

Cowan. Matthews. Domi
Tavares. Marner. Knies
Jarnkrok. Nylander. McMann
Holmberg. Dewar. Reaves
Grebenkin
($2M in cap space)

 

[WTFMAN99]

They don't really have a reason. It doesn't take money away from the players - it just redistributes it more fairly. Sure, some players would be upset, but the PA is about the whole membership.



It should be both the league and the PA, though only the PA could set it up without cooperation from the other side.



A luxury tax would increase the money owners have to spend, which they will strongly oppose.

No one would force owners to spend into the luxury tax but if they wanted to, they could.

1/1 ratio though if you want to do 5 or 10 (whatever the max) million over the cap it'll cost you 10-20M to do so and the tax is spread to the lower revenue teams just like regular revenue sharing.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's not a fairy tale that other markets are going to have advantages over others..

For some it's taxes, others it's weather, for some it's low media pressure, among many other factors. Florida teams seemingly are very lucky that they have strong overlap over many of these

Southern US markets are going to have multiple advantages over Canadian cities. You either just have to accept it as it is, or follow a different league or sport

Oh, I get being a fan of a team and hoping they will make the right management decisions to put a winner together. That's what I am right now. That's why I have always been so angry about things like the unprecedented dramatic overpayments.

But Legion34 has made the argument that winning is entirely futile. Top to bottom. Because, in reality, there is absolutely no possible way for a team to win if they have to pay 11.5 million dollars to a 40 goal scorer while their competition can pay 8.6 million to 57 goal scoreres.

So this is futile. It's like someone being a fan of whatever team the harlem globe trotters are playing on any given night. At some point they're literally just batshit crazy. The;y're like "But he's just bouncing the ball in the air and doing backflips. DO SOMETHING!!!!" It would drive someone mad if they didn't understand the fix was already in.

 

[Cassell]

What about a system in which cap hits are calculated as to what they’d be after taxes? So for instance, if the cap were like $85 million, a team could potentially spend over the cap in gross dollars but once taxes are involved, come in as cap compliant. Maybe I’m not explaining it as I’m meaning it, perhaps it’s a dumb idea. I’d love to hear some thoughts on it in any case, for or against.

 

[Legion34]

Oh, I get being a fan of a team and hoping they will make the right management decisions to put a winner together. That's what I am right now. That's why I have always been so angry about things like the unprecedented dramatic overpayments.

But Legion34 has made the argument that winning is entirely futile. Top to bottom. Because, in reality, there is absolutely no possible way for a team to win if they have to pay 11.5 million dollars to a 40 goal scorer while their competition can pay 8.6 million to 57 goal scoreres.

So this is futile. It's like someone being a fan of whatever team the harlem globe trotters are playing on any given night. At some point they're literally just batshit crazy. The;y're like "But he's just bouncing the ball in the air and doing backflips. DO SOMETHING!!!!" It would drive someone mad if they didn't understand the fix was already in.

So I guess no team could have possibly had fans in the pre cap world? Right?

You can be a fan of a team that doesn’t win. This isn’t hard.

it’s clear that the no state tax teams have a massive advantage.

Other teams can try to overcome. Eventually it will change if/when they can

 

[Americanadian]

So your thought is. Every high state tax gm is a bad negotiator and their players are selfish

And every low state tax gm is a brilliant negotiator and players just want to win?

Never said this. This is a straw man argument that you created.

How did yzerman go from staring down stamkos to 3.4 for Justin hill?

what changed?

Yzerman was desperate to sign Holl, he wasn't desperate to sign Stamkos. Look at all of Yzerman's work in Detroit. He's not a good GM.

Fox and makar signed during covid flat caps. Very hard to compare.

Quite easy to compare. Only hard to compare them to the rest of the players in the same league if you don't want to.

Pasta took 13.64% which is within the 13.5-14,5% that was standard. Boston’s taxes are lower.

Standard for what? Is Nylander a "standard" star player? Pastrnak has won the rocket, he's scored 110 points the past 2 seasons and his next closest team mate has 67.

Edit. Also according to the cap friendly tax calculator, aho made 200k more this year than Willy

That's awesome - how does it look over the life of the contract (you don't have to answer).

 

[Americanadian]

You're right that it goes beyond taxes. But there's no denying that the majority of players in the league, including Canadian born players prefer to play in the US than in Canadian markets.

Canadian markets inability to attract talent as well as US teams goes well beyond just Dubas and Tre

Completely agree. I am a born and raised Canadian who currently lives in the US. I understand why people would prefer to live on this side of the border.

 

[Dreakmur]

No one would force owners to spend into the luxury tax but if they wanted to, they could.

Their fans would force them to. Any team not spending into that luxury isn't trying to win, and the falls all know exactly who that is.

1/1 ratio though if you want to do 5 or 10 (whatever the max) million over the cap it'll cost you 10-20M to do so and the tax is spread to the lower revenue teams just like regular revenue sharing.

That would defeat the entire purpose of the 50/50 revenue shares.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

The fact that that play is clip worthy kind of says a lot about Liljegren though.

I just grabbed the first one I could find tbh.

 

[Warden of the North]

I really detest the Liljegren contract.

Bleh.

 

[Legion34]

Never said this. This is a straw man argument that you created.

Yzerman was desperate to sign Holl, he wasn't desperate to sign Stamkos. Look at all of Yzerman's work in Detroit. He's not a good GM.

Quite easy to compare. Only hard to compare them to the rest of the players in the same league if you don't want to.

Standard for what? Is Nylander a "standard" star player? Pastrnak has won the rocket, he's scored 110 points the past 2 seasons and his next closest team mate has 67.

That's awesome - how does it look over the life of the contract (you don't have to answer).

1.) it doesn’t give me the “life
Of the contracts” but considering Willy is front loaded I don’t see how it can possibly be less. Aho will take home more than Nylander over the life of the contract due to taxes

2.) the 14% average is the standard
Going rate in high tax markets as established by other stars (pre Covid) and openly acknowledged by Igor’s agent who has said he wants 14%
Boston is a mid tax market
Pasta got 13.64%
He is a better player
Still market values around 14%

Not all star players are exactly the same. Karlson/tabares/panarin/kane/toews/thortnon are different values. All got similar %

Their fans would force them to. Any team not spending into that luxury isn't trying to win, and the falls all know exactly who that is.



That would defeat the entire purpose of the 50/50 revenue shares.

Not if you Matched it.
as long as owners paid into an owners pot the same money it would be the same.

 

[Stephen]

I really detest the Liljegren contract.

Bleh.

I also think the contract handcuffed them a bit. If the Leafs were this close to Matt Roy as reported and needed all dollars to get it done, why did we sign Liljegren to handcuff the team?

 

[Dreakmur]

Not if you Matched it.
as long as owners paid into an owners pot the same money it would be the same.

None of it is revenue. Matching it doesn't change that.

 

[Americanadian]

1.) it doesn’t give me the “life
Of the contracts” but considering Willy is front loaded I don’t see how it can possibly be less. Aho will take home more than Nylander over the life of the contract due to taxes

Don't worry - I calculated it and of course Nylander brings home more.

2.) the 14% average is the standard
Going rate in high tax markets as established by other stars (pre Covid) and openly acknowledged by Igor’s agent who has said he wants 14%
Boston is a mid tax market
Pasta got 13.64%
He is a better player
Still market values around 14%

Not all star players are exactly the same. Karlson/tabares/panarin/kane/toews/thortnon are different values. All got similar %

Is Nylander a star now? What makes him more of a star than Aho or Larkin? Both of those players are the same age are starting their contracts the same season, are both 1C's and have both lead their teams in points for 6 of the last 7 seasons. Nylander plays a less important position, is a negative player defensively and barely outscored them this season.

I struggle to see how Nylander is in the same conversation as Karlsson/Tavares/Panarin/Kane/Toews/Thornton. Panarin is the only one who is close but he put up 20 more points than his next closest team mate both seasons in CBJ before signing and has since proved that wasn't a fluke by outscoring all his teammates in NY every year.

 

[LiseL]

I feel confident Ottawa will finish closer to 1st in the Atlantic than out of the playoffs next season. Depends what happens with Pinto.

Jensen, Amadio, Ullmark, Perron are great additions.

Sens fan here. Now with Pinto signed, if Norris is healthy (shoulder surgery works this time), then I think we will be in the wild card mix. And as a previous poster stated, new coach bump but also a different type of coach (similar style to Tocchet). Considering we were in a cap crunch last year, I'm impressed with what Staois has managed to do this off-season. Unloading Korpisalo's contract was unreal.

 

[conFABulator]

I also think the contract handcuffed them a bit. If the Leafs were this close to Matt Roy as reported and needed all dollars to get it done, why did we sign Liljegren to handcuff the team?

They had to make a decision on Liljegren before free agency opened. They could have offered Roy more and then moved Liljegren (or someone else). We can be over the cap in the off-season.

I think they had a top number on Roy they didn't want to go above and that Liljegren had nothing to with it.

 

[TMLAM34]

They had to make a decision on Liljegren before free agency opened. They could have offered Roy more and then moved Liljegren (or someone else). We can be over the cap in the off-season.

I think they had a top number on Roy they didn't want to go above and that Liljegren had nothing to with it.

Or Roy didn’t want to come to Toronto.

 

[conFABulator]

Or Roy didn’t want to come to Toronto.

Exactly.

It does get a bit frustrating and annoying when people think we could just sign anybody and everybody we want. They have to want to be here.

I am sure we were in on Henrique. We know we were in on Skinner. Both chose somewhere else.

 

[keonsbitterness]

It's like someone being a fan of whatever team the harlem globe trotters are playing on any given night. At some point they're literally just batshit crazy. The;y're like "But he's just bouncing the ball in the air and doing backflips. DO SOMETHING!!!!" It would drive someone mad if they didn't understand the fix was already in.

I've got to stop betting on the Washington Generals!