Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Budz]

If LA is a bit desperate to replace Doughty’s minutes on the right side…. Perhaps a Liljegren and Kampf for Danault swap could tempt them. If Byfield makes the move to C, it makes sense to reduce Danault’s ice time, which is a bit of a waste.

Danault would give us a super-elite 3c to go behind Tavares and Matthews, and he would also be able to take all of the responsibilities vacated by Kampf.

Downside is we wouldn’t be able to carry more than 1 spare.


Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Domi-Tavares-Marner
McMann-Danault-Jarnkrok
Robertson-Dewar-Grebenkin
Reaves

Rielly-Tanev
Larsson-McCabe
Benoit-Hakenpaa

I suggested the exact same move in another thread.

Makes a lot of sense.

 

[Gallagbi]

30 point pace for Lundell and Compher, which they may or may it have continued if they played 82 games.

Karlsson didn’t play a 3C role any more than O’Rielly did when he was here.


It is nice, but it’s a different situation. You aren’t just getting more ice time, you’re taking it away from someone else.

Correct. The 3C saw additional time for a variety of reasons on some teams. You could argue they're capable of being 2Cs on most teams, or even higher, but on those teams they were the 3C.

And when talking about quality of players, it would make sense to use the full sample and not assume they'd be pointless the rest of the way. I projected, you could use per game instead - either way you see a production gap in Kampf with those players. Some are strong (Karlsson, even Lundell had a solid playoff) and some were weak winners like Compher

Keefe did a really bad job, what can I say?

Guess I'm looking forward for mid 30 pt season from Kampf then, when we stack his 30 ESP with a handful of PK points this year. I'll happily eat crow if we can get his defensive play with that production.

¹
There’s a difference between thinking he’s a good 3c and thinking he better than Holmberg. Those are completely different issues. I don’t think I’ve ever said Kampf is a great 3c… but that’s not the same as thinking he’s the best option available right now. I think Kampf is a below average 3c AND he’s way better than Holmberg.

You never said "great" but you have implied he's comparable to cup winning 3C (and I'm sure there's a few odd examples that we haven't really found yet which may support it, but I'd say there's a clear gap in his play and most cup winning 3C) and fine as a 3C overall despite his minutes rolling into 4C territory and the teams constant need to upgrade our 3C spot for the past few years. Thats the claim I personally disagree with.

I'd definitely agree there's a drop off from Kampf to Holmberg. Given what their paid and how they'll be deployed, I think the value, and overall upside, is better with Holmberg and we should have taken that savings to try and upgrade our 3C since Kampf can't fill the role adequately.

Here's youd quote for reference re fine as a 3C

Kampf was fine as the 3c. Scoring was a tad below average for that spot, but not by a lot.

 

[All Mod Cons]

All free agents or prospects drafted from a different boss. Nothing via trade unless you count Tanev as a trade. The main core is still very much here.

And that was always going to be the problem. It's something I've pointed out many times over the last number of years.

Not only do/did we lack prospects (depth) but we also lacked picks. Like proper picks, not 3rd round or after.

But more importantly than that, because we employed the stars and scrubs strategy to build our team under Dubas, there becomes an actual lack of tradeable roster players.

You either have guys making nothing who are outperforming their contract (you have to keep for cap structure purposes) or you have dime a dozen players, the same as every other team.

That leaves you with trying to improve your roster by moving a guy(s) who are all in the top 10ish or so cap hits in the entire league. That is a very very hard trade to facilitate. We need the players to want to go to a team (contender) while said team have the cap space, or the want to completely change their own cap structure.

One of Kyle's many, many, many f***-ups was not having a middle ground group of players that you can move for something we might need.

That has basically left Brad with the option of improving the squad through the draft (he's tried) or Free Agency which is fraught with dangers (he's tried). You either have to overpay on cap hit or term (or both).

Kyle really didn't leave his successor a hell of a lot to work with other than 3 extremely highly paid guys, amd a smattering of everything else.

 

[Dreakmur]

Correct. The 3C saw additional time for a variety of reasons on some teams. You could argue they're capable of being 2Cs on most teams, or even higher, but on those teams they were the 3C.

Being the 3rd best center is different than being in the 3c role.

And when talking about quality of players, it would make sense to use the full sample and not assume they'd be pointless the rest of the way. I projected, you could use per game instead - either way you see a production gap in Kampf with those players. Some are strong (Karlsson, even Lundell had a solid playoff) and some were weak winners like Compher

Ok, so 30 points vs 24?

Guess I'm looking forward for mid 30 pt season from Kampf then, when we stack his 30 ESP with a handful of PK points this year. I'll happily eat crow if we can get his defensive play with that production.

I'd expect a mid-20 ES points from Kampf. Add in some points on the PK and he can push 30.

You never said "great" but you have implied he's comparable to cup winning 3C (and I'm sure there's a few odd examples that we haven't really found yet which may support it, but I'd say there's a clear gap in his play and most cup winning 3C) and fine as a 3C overall despite his minutes rolling into 4C territory and the teams constant need to upgrade our 3C spot for the past few years. Thats the claim I personally disagree with.

I've implied that 3Cs don't score as much as people think.... and that fact that you're going all in on a couple of 30 point guys proves my point.

I'd definitely agree there's a drop off from Kampf to Holmberg. Given what their paid and how they'll be deployed, I think the value, and overall upside, is better with Holmberg and we should have taken that savings to try and upgrade our 3C since Kampf can't fill the role adequately.

And that's my point.... you're not upgrading Kampf for less money. Holmberg is a clear downgrade, and that's if he can even stick at centre, which he hasn't proven yet.

Alex Wennberg just got like 4 million for scoring 23, 29, and 30 ES points as a 2nd liner. Scott Laughton is probably a bit better, but he's paid 3 million, and in a 3rd line role doesn't likely crack 30 ES points.

Who's the cheaper upgrade we all think will be easy to bring in?

Here's youd quote for reference re fine as a 3C

He is fine. Below average offensively and quite good defensively.

 

[Gallagbi]

Being the 3rd best center is different than being in the 3c role.



Ok, so 30 points vs 24?



I'd expect a mid-20 ES points from Kampf. Add in some points on the PK and he can push 30.



I've implied that 3Cs don't score as much as people think.... and that fact that you're going all in on a couple of 30 point guys proves my point.



And that's my point.... you're not upgrading Kampf for less money. Holmberg is a clear downgrade, and that's if he can even stick at centre, which he hasn't proven yet.

Alex Wennberg just got like 4 million for scoring 23, 29, and 30 ES points as a 2nd liner. Scott Laughton is probably a bit better, but he's paid 3 million, and in a 3rd line role doesn't likely crack 30 ES points.

Who's the cheaper upgrade we all think will be easy to bring in?



He is fine. Below average offensively and quite good defensively.

You seem to be jumping around a bit on your argument or lacking clarity on mine. I'll restate for clarity and then we likely agree to disagree because we view Kampf differently.

- Kampf has shown he can't be a regular 3C. Its shown in his production and usage over the past 3 years
- he's a good 4C, which doesn't fit the current build or cap structure of our team.
- the third center on cup winning teams is generally MUCH better than Kampf. He's producing ~25% less than the bottom tier of that group (Compher, Lundell) at ES, can't play PP which many can increasing their offensive output and that's only the bottom tier ignoring your stronger tier like TB/VGK
- You're not acquiring a valid 3C for Kampfs money today, your using that saving, in switching to Holmberg to upgrade. We missed the earlier window to address 3C this summer, I don't mind moving him now to prepare for in season moves. Worst case you're playing with no upgrade, cap savings and an adequate 4C in Holmberg

 

[Fogelhund]

Really?

Pens fans hated him when he was there and that is when I viewed him a decent bit. He spent quite a bit of time at wing there so may have had to do with him being lazier and less engaged defensively

In Minny I dont remember if he was playing C routinely and whether he was a positive defensive player or not. The wild were a strong defensive system and well coached team so he may have been a good fit there

If he is a positive defensive player who can play center and be a good in zone defensive player then I'd be all for targetting him

Kampf + 2nd or 3rd + timmins for Granlund@50%

I dug deeper into it, and it seems I was wrong on first impression. He did some pretty heavy duty defensive work for San Jose last year, quite a bit of PK, and was praised for it. When you look further back, he has been defensively weak. Can a player who's been weak defensively, suddenly be strong? I'm not sure... he had a good year last year... but probably because there wasn't anybody else available. It's one of those things where you'd need your Pro scouts to look at him... and probably better off going for someone who has a better history.

 

[hamzarocks]

I dug deeper into it, and it seems I was wrong on first impression. He did some pretty heavy duty defensive work for San Jose last year, quite a bit of PK, and was praised for it. When you look further back, he has been defensively weak. Can a player who's been weak defensively, suddenly be strong? I'm not sure... he had a good year last year... but probably because there wasn't anybody else available. It's one of those things where you'd need your Pro scouts to look at him... and probably better off going for someone who has a better history.

He was very productive for the Sharks in a 1C type role

Sure wont play that type here, but Nylander is better than whoever he played with for the 2024 SJS

He would be a good add @50% retained. My only concern is whether the Sharks find Kampf a dump or not?

50% retained they likely want a 2nd + Timmins/AHL guy (steeves), adding kampf if they value him makes sense, but if they dont and want us to toss another pick then I wouldnt be as keen to the deal

 

[SprDaVE]

And that was always going to be the problem. It's something I've pointed out many times over the last number of years.

Not only do/did we lack prospects (depth) but we also lacked picks. Like proper picks, not 3rd round or after.

But more importantly than that, because we employed the stars and scrubs strategy to build our team under Dubas, there becomes an actual lack of tradeable roster players.

You either have guys making nothing who are outperforming their contract (you have to keep for cap structure purposes) or you have dime a dozen players, the same as every other team.

That leaves you with trying to improve your roster by moving a guy(s) who are all in the top 10ish or so cap hits in the entire league. That is a very very hard trade to facilitate. We need the players to want to go to a team (contender) while said team have the cap space, or the want to completely change their own cap structure.

One of Kyle's many, many, many f***-ups was not having a middle ground group of players that you can move for something we might need.

That has basically left Brad with the option of improving the squad through the draft (he's tried) or Free Agency which is fraught with dangers (he's tried). You either have to overpay on cap hit or term (or both).

Kyle really didn't leave his successor a hell of a lot to work with other than 3 extremely highly paid guys, amd a smattering of everything else.

That seems like a lot of excuses for not making a trade. It's not that complicated and there were plenty of capable assets to put in play with varying amounts of value. Not all players and prospects have 0 value, let's get real.

Treliving traded a lot of picks this past deadline just like any other GM that was here before, pointing to the lack of picks.

You can blame everything on the previous GM if you want, I'll just stay in the present.

 

[supermann_98]

Sources are telling me that Mitch now wants $13 mill AAV

Honestly if he had a Conn Smythe candidate playoffs and got us to the SC finals I'd be good with it, just don't think he's got the mentality to get us there but I'd happily eat crow

 

[notdoneyet]

Would be a shrewd move

Only concern is that 2nd line would suck in their own zone.

I was hoping we target Bjugstad instead of Granlund to be 2C/play with Nylander

I would like to see Vatrano or wennberg

 

[All Mod Cons]

That seems like a lot of excuses for not making a trade. It's not that complicated and there were plenty of capable assets to put in play with varying amounts of value. Not all players and prospects have 0 value, let's get real.

Treliving traded a lot of picks this past deadline just like any other GM that was here before, pointing to the lack of picks.

You can blame everything on the previous GM if you want, I'll just stay in the present.

Yeah it's absolutely ridiculous he didn't trade all the $11mil players with NMC.

He should've just traded them and argued the NMC weren't legally binding. Silly GM.

 

[SprDaVE]

Yeah it's absolutely ridiculous he didn't trade all the $11mil players with NMC.

He should've just traded them and argued the NMC weren't legally binding. Silly GM.

Yeah all he had was only 11M players with NTCs to trade. All of them at that. Silly me I guess.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Who could he have traded for anything of value?

Who are the names, excluding all the NMCs.

 

[VanW27]

Who could he have traded for anything of value?

Who are the names, excluding all the NMCs.

Willy and Mitch didn't have NMCs when he got here.

 

[SprDaVE]

Who could he have traded for anything of value?

Who are the names, excluding all the NMCs.

See for yourself : Toronto Maple Leafs | Salary cap and contracts

A GM has to get creative, finding value for lesser assets and not only that, he can make trades that doesn't involve star players. They have secondary players, picks, prospects and depth players to move to get other things. He had Nylander pre-NMC technically as well. We can go up and down the list of players and say they have no value outside of the "11M players" but that's just not true. But maybe he likes his team and players so he'd rather keep them and keep trading picks or doing UFA signings. We'll see how it will go.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Willy and Mitch didn't have NMCs when he got here.

Nylander no. You're correct. But you don't wanna trade Nylander if you want to get better

Mitch he had what 3 weeks? to try and hammer out a trade for a guy making 11 mil?
Should've been plenty of time considering the plethora of trades we see in the NHL every year.

Stars and scrubs.

 

[All Mod Cons]

See for yourself : Toronto Maple Leafs | Salary cap and contracts

A GM has to get creative, finding value for lesser assets and not only that, he can make trades that doesn't involve star players. They have secondary players, picks, prospects and depth players to move to get other things. He had Nylander pre-NMC technically as well. We can go up and down the list of players and say they have no value outside of the "11M players" but that's just not true. But maybe he likes his team and players so he'd rather keep them and keep trading picks or doing UFA signings. We'll see how it will go.

So 6 of the players (not including Nylander, Kampf or Domi) have some sort of trade protection from before he was GM.

He's brought another 8 in through Free Agency (as I mentioned practically his only option).

So, in order for the new GM to undo nearly a decade of playoff failures he could have:

Traded away the final scraps of higher draft picks we own.
Traded away any level of prospect and disregard the future.
Traded Marner (who he had nearly a month to sort that deal)
Traded Nylander - possibly the only guy to show up in the playoffs
Traded away Kampf, McMann, Robertson, Holmberg or Liljegren. Not sure they're going to return what we desire. I don't think they're overrated outside of this fanbase. 4 bottom 6 forwards and a 3rd pairing dman.

 

[VanW27]

Nylander no. You're correct. But you don't wanna trade Nylander if you want to get better

Mitch he had what 3 weeks? to try and hammer out a trade for a guy making 11 mil?
Should've been plenty of time considering the plethora of trades we see in the NHL every year.

Stars and scrubs.

The "he only had 3 weeks or a month or whatever" excuse is so weak. It's not rocket science, if teams wanted Mitch and Treliving wanted to trade him 3 weeks is more than enough time.

Doesn't matter, Tre is a yes man. He was hired to do what he's told and what he was told was to keep the core together.

 

[All Mod Cons]

The "he only had 3 weeks or a month or whatever" excuse is so weak. It's not rocket science, if teams wanted Mitch and Treliving wanted to trade him 3 weeks is more than enough time.

Doesn't matter, Tre is a yes man. He was hired to do what he's told and what he was told was to keep the core together.

It really does not seem like enough time to do that trade. Whenever you see behind the scenes footage of GMs they've been working for ages on a trade.

Trust me I wanted Tavares and Marner gone ages ago. I've been saying since the Columbus series we need to move on from them (not in a vacuum but because it just won't work with the 4 of them).

Since that series, stupid decision after stupid decision has caused our depth to weaken and weaken. Letting Hyman walk was gross negligence as some of us said at the time.

As the years went back, we had less and less depth, less and less picks because our previous GM couldn't help himself in the rental market. Throwing picks away left, right and centre for guys who'd only be here 3 months.

I kept saying I pity the GM to follow Dubas because he left him next to nothing to work with except stars and scrubs and Free Agency to try and build a team.

The writing was on the wall for 6 years.

 

[Fogelhund]

Look, there was time to move Mitch before the NTC, if there was a desire to do so. Clearly there wasn't.

There was time this year, to explore a trade, and ask him to lift the NTC. Clearly management and Berube wanted a crack at this lineup, especially Berube.

This is our lineup, for better or worse... time to move on.

 

[ACC1224]

The "he only had 3 weeks or a month or whatever" excuse is so weak. It's not rocket science, if teams wanted Mitch and Treliving wanted to trade him 3 weeks is more than enough time.

Doesn't matter, Tre is a yes man. He was hired to do what he's told and what he was told was to keep the core together.

I don't see any reason to think that.

 

[ULF_55]

If LA is a bit desperate to replace Doughty’s minutes on the right side…. Perhaps a Liljegren and Kampf for Danault swap could tempt them. If Byfield makes the move to C, it makes sense to reduce Danault’s ice time, which is a bit of a waste.

Danault would give us a super-elite 3c to go behind Tavares and Matthews, and he would also be able to take all of the responsibilities vacated by Kampf.

Downside is we wouldn’t be able to carry more than 1 spare.


Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Domi-Tavares-Marner
McMann-Danault-Jarnkrok
Robertson-Dewar-Grebenkin
Reaves

Rielly-Tanev
Larsson-McCabe
Benoit-Hakenpaa

31 year old Danault, one outlier season with 27 goals.
He has a $5.5mm Cap hit for 3 more years, and has a career average of 46 points.

So it increases the Cap, by $100k to get a center who would be, at best, 3rd. on Leafs, behind Matthews and Tavares.

I don't see this as a value move for the Leafs.

My guess if you put Kampf between Domi and Nylander he could get to 46 points, but the goal should be to at least replace Tavares 65 lowest point total if looking for a new 2nd. line center. Danault got 2nd. line minutes in LA. Kampf got at best 3rd. line minutes.

Certainly, move Kampf, but not with an add for twice the cost against the Cap.

 

[conFABulator]

It really does not seem like enough time to do that trade. Whenever you see behind the scenes footage of GMs they've been working for ages on a trade.

Trust me I wanted Tavares and Marner gone ages ago. I've been saying since the Columbus series we need to move on from them (not in a vacuum but because it just won't work with the 4 of them).

Since that series, stupid decision after stupid decision has caused our depth to weaken and weaken. Letting Hyman walk was gross negligence as some of us said at the time.

As the years went back, we had less and less depth, less and less picks because our previous GM couldn't help himself in the rental market. Throwing picks away left, right and centre for guys who'd only be here 3 months.

I kept saying I pity the GM to follow Dubas because he left him next to nothing to work with except stars and scrubs and Free Agency to try and build a team.

The writing was on the wall for 6 years.

I agree with the majority of the post.

However, I don't believe Dubas left us in bad shape and certainly not as bad a shape as some suggest.

We have a core five locked, a next tier that includes Knies, Woll, McMann, Robertson, and Holmberg, cap space to add Domi, Tanev, OEL and Stolarz and Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Hildeby, Niemela and others knocking at the door.

Yes, our picks are depleted and we don't have a lot of cap wiggle room. Name a top team that doesn't have those challenges. We are watching those teams lose players as cap casualties. Hyman is probably our only big loss over the past few years and that was a choice of Bunting, Ritchie, and Mrazek over keeping Hyman and going with two league minimum options.

 

[Dreakmur]

You seem to be jumping around a bit on your argument or lacking clarity on mine. I'll restate for clarity and then we likely agree to disagree because we view Kampf differently.

- Kampf has shown he can't be a regular 3C. Its shown in his production and usage over the past 3 years

He was fine as the 3c when he was in that role for 2022 and 2023. In 2024, he was used as a 4c with poor linemates.

- he's a good 4C, which doesn't fit the current build or cap structure of our team.

He’d be an elite 4c if given appropriate linemates, though I agree with the cap structure.

- the third center on cup winning teams is generally MUCH better than Kampf. He's producing ~25% less than the bottom tier of that group (Compher, Lundell) at ES, can't play PP which many can increasing their offensive output and that's only the bottom tier ignoring your stronger tier like TB/VGK

You’re not comparing him to players who actually played 3c roles. Guys like Karlsson were top-6 in ice the for their teams, which means they were not strictly third liners. Nicolas Roy played a comparable role and scored 23 points in 65 games as Vegas’ 3c. During TBs cup runs, their closest comparable would Janni Gourde who scored 21 points in 70 games in 2020 and Anthony Cirelli who scored 16 points in 50 games in 2021.

I guess 25% sounds a lot better than 5 points.

- You're not acquiring a valid 3C for Kampfs money today, your using that saving, in switching to Holmberg to upgrade. We missed the earlier window to address 3C this summer, I don't mind moving him now to prepare for in season moves. Worst case you're playing with no upgrade, cap savings and an adequate 4C in Holmberg

This is not a downgrade we can afford to make. Kampf plays an important role that nobody else on the team can adequately replicate. Matthews could take more Dzone draws, but do you really want to waste him there… and then give your 3rd and 4th lines the premium draws instead?

 

[TMLAM34]

Acquiring Danault would be a huge win for the Leafs, putting him and Kampf in the same sentence is insane.

Being able to put Danault - Marner duo against other teams top lines would be a very good thing for this team.