Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[BertCorbeau]

That is a interesting question Bert

On 8 years you would have 4 X RFA years and also be buying away 4 X UFA years on this deal.

While you are likely overpaying for the first 4 RFA years, but if the cap keeps increasing annually by the time the UFA begin a $6.5 mil AAV will likely look like a bargain.

There is a possibility that Knies might line-up on the top line (replacing Bertuzzi) beside Matthews and potentially Marner, so the opportunity to put up big numbers does exist if he keeps developing. His current 15-20-35 points could double to 30 goals and 65-70 points with PP time on unit #1.

Also Knies plays a big heavy game that should fit new coach Berube style very well and with Tavares contract at $11 mil with a significant pay cut coming after this year that would allow much of the Knies deal to be absorbed in that reduction.

There is lots of risk committing so much money this early, but I likely would gamble all things considered, that Matt Knies with grow into that deal, and if the Leafs wait and see what #'s he puts up next season could cost the team a much higher or shorter bridge deal and then bigger 3rd UFA contract.

PS. There is no doubt Knies was watching his NCAA teammate just sign his new deal and take note,

It is an interesting question.. personally I’m trying to get him extended now. They did so with Woll.

I wonder what his camp would be asking for. You would have to assume they have asked.

 

[LeafEgo]

I doubt he'll take a paycut.

He might take a team friendly $12mm?

So can a team win with 2 forwards making $26mm and 2 defenders making $20mm?

I suppose, seems fairly balanced at least. Prefer a more equitable approach myself.

Certainly more difficult if all four players are simply human.

 

[Stephen]

It is an interesting question.. personally I’m trying to get him extended now. They did so with Woll.

I wonder what his camp would be asking for. You would have to assume they have asked.

I think anything under $7 million on a longer 6-8 year deal would be acceptable risk for the club.

 

[LeafEgo]

It is an interesting question.. personally I’m trying to get him extended now. They did so with Woll.

I wonder what his camp would be asking for. You would have to assume they have asked.

I wouldn't assume that. Hard to know how many players are seeking out the two way risk deal.

Teams are starting to place bets a year early to gain advantage over their peers - getting aggressive. I'm sure the Leafs are willing participants in that discussion any time to keep up. There are so many assumptions/variables involved from both sides that arriving at a price point is probably tricky getting to agreement.

 

[Mess]

I think anything under $7 million on a longer 6-8 year deal would be acceptable risk for the club.

The longer the term the lower the risk and the greater the potential value of the deal for the team, when you break that into knowing the 4 X RFA cost controllable years and then buying away free agent costly years in 5 thru 8 of the term.

The player gains unproven in early years and then the team gains most in the final 4 years in max term.

Willy was a 20+ goal and 61 point player and got $7 mil AAV way back in 2018 when the Salary Cap was Upper Limit of $79.5 million.

The current Salary Cap upper limit is $88 mil with an expected +$4-5 mil next year, when any Knies next contract would begin.

 

[notDatsyuk]

What does in-zone offense mean? Does it just mean the play originates in the offensive zone, opposed to outside of it? Do you know?

Additionally, as I said, some players im sure rather be forecheck better than be the one along the board recovering the puck. Prime example is the Marner "pulling the chute" video. He was in a prime puck recovery area and instead chose to stop up and forecheck instead. Subsequently Boaton cleared the zone easily.

So... a player might be great at forechecking but terrible in puck recovery.

I see Marner and Nylander as great forecheckers...Nylander due to his speed and ability to lift sticks. Marner because of his relentless dog on bone focus. But... i dont think either are good cycle players in the traditional sense. See Mats Sundin. I definitely think Nylander is a much better cycle player than Marner though.

I don't know what he means by "in-zone", which is why I asked.

I think a reasonable assumption is that it means playing within the (offensive) zone (as opposed to rushing in), which sounds to me like 'cycle'. How would you define 'cycle' other than 'passing the puck and picking up assists within the offensive zone'?

Certainly "Nylander is a much better cycle player than Marner".

 

[Mugzy97]

The longer the term the lower the risk and the greater the potential value of the deal for the team, when you break that into knowing the 4 X RFA cost controllable years and then buying away free agent costly years in 5 thru 8 of the term.

The player gains unproven in early years and then the team gains most in the final 4 years in max term.

Willy was a 20+ goal and 61 point player and got $7 mil AAV way back in 2018 when the Salary Cap was Upper Limit of $79.5 million.

The current Salary Cap upper limit is $88 mil with an expected +$4-5 mil next year, when any Knies next contract would begin.

People would say that Willy's potential ceiling was way higher than Knies tho. That's not a good comparable, but a good example of how it could play out.

 

[HockeyVirus]

69 days until the Leafs first game of the season...

 

[ULF_55]

69 days until the Leafs first game of the season...

If you can't wait that long ...

 

[HockeyVirus]

If you can't wait that long ...
View attachment 898548

Oh I will be watching this and our prospect series with the Habs lol. Beggars can't be choosers. Just we all know it is not as fun since it doesn't ultimately count

 

[ULF_55]

Oh I will be watching this and our prospect series with the Habs lol. Beggars can't be choosers. Just we all know it is not as fun since it doesn't ultimately count

I kind of like the preseason as you get to watch some futures and tryouts.

Regular season then comes along for 66 boring games ...

 

[HockeyVirus]

I kind of like the preseason as you get to watch some futures and tryouts.

Regular season then comes along for 66 boring games ...

It's all in what you make of it. Sure non of it matters if we lose in round 1 again, but I had fun watching Matthews chase 70 for example. New coach this year, some younger guys who should take a step, and for once a defense that doesn't suck.

I am sure I will find things to get excited about

 

[ULF_55]

It's all in what you make of it. Sure non of it matters if we lose in round 1 again, but I had fun watching Matthews chase 70 for example. New coach this year, some younger guys who should take a step, and for once a defense that doesn't suck.

I am sure I will find things to get excited about

Yes, there are moments to enjoy in the regular season.

One memorable was when Nylander's streak came to and end with the post-crossbar-post and out play.

Wasn't one to celebrate, other than applaud the streak, which had come to an end.

 

[ULF_55]

Denis Gurianov, 12th. overall?

So what was his major flaw that the Stars missed?

 

[HockeyVirus]

Yes, there are moments to enjoy in the regular season.

One memorable was when Nylander's streak came to and end with the post-crossbar-post and out play.

Wasn't one to celebrate, other than applaud the streak, which had come to an end.

I suspect Marner is going to outdo what Nylander did.. at least to start the year. I think, in his shoes, not just needing a contract but obviously hearing everyone say that you can't win with him and he is soft and sucks (and it is different this time, even the media were on him this time)..

He is going to basically have his career season IMO. And while I honestly dislike him very much, I want to root for him so I am going to while he is a Leaf. Hopefully this time next year Marner has the biggest 180 of fan opinion in recent memory after taking us deep

 

[Machinae]

I suspect Marner is going to outdo what Nylander did.. at least to start the year. I think, in his shoes, not just needing a contract but obviously hearing everyone say that you can't win with him and he is soft and sucks (and it is different this time, even the media were on him this time)..

He is going to basically have his career season IMO. And while I honestly dislike him very much, I want to root for him so I am going to while he is a Leaf. Hopefully this time next year Marner has the biggest 180 of fan opinion in recent memory after taking us deep

Based on his past performances, I thinks its more likely he has an even worse year due to the scrutiny.

Then again money is involved, not an early trip to the cottage.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Laine to Carolina is supposedly in the works. I like the fit if true.

 

[ACC1224]

Laine to Carolina is supposedly in the works. I like the fit if true.

Seems like a Brindamour type?

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Seems like a Brindamour type?

Haha not really but they just lost Guentzel need scoring and he will be lining up with countrymen. I can see him rediscovering his game there.

 

[LeafSteel]

Honestly feels like this is Laine’s last chance to get his shit together.

If he can’t pull it together for Rod the Bod, I think he officially becomes another enigmatic player like Yashin who could never realize the success that he had the skill for because he lacked it between the ears.

 

[LeafSteel]

Maple Leafs' Timothy Liljegren Has Trained Like It's a Make-or-Break Year — Because That's What It Is For Him — The Hockey News

The Toronto Maple Leafs need a lot more from their youngsters, including Timothy Liljegren, Joseph Woll, Matthew Knies and Alex Nylander.

apple.news

Interesting read on Liljegren.

Hopefully he finds his inner Viking this season and unleashes the fury of Valhalla on his opponents this season,.

 

[Evilhomer]

Haha not really but they just lost Guentzel need scoring and he will be lining up with countrymen. I can see him rediscovering his game there.

If true, I don't think it will matter much for Carolina. People love to crap on the Leafs, but I think it's pretty clear that Carolina's core can't get it done either. Adding Laine won't change that.

 

[Stephen]

I suspect Marner is going to outdo what Nylander did.. at least to start the year. I think, in his shoes, not just needing a contract but obviously hearing everyone say that you can't win with him and he is soft and sucks (and it is different this time, even the media were on him this time)..

He is going to basically have his career season IMO. And while I honestly dislike him very much, I want to root for him so I am going to while he is a Leaf. Hopefully this time next year Marner has the biggest 180 of fan opinion in recent memory after taking us deep

I have the impression Marner is a fairly slow starter every year and it always looks very sloppy and out of sync in October before he goes white hot November and after. Even going back to his draft year, or the year before his draft year, there was a big story about how he suffered some crisis in confidence and had to leave the Knights, go home to reset before finding his scoring stride.

 

[Stephen]

If true, I don't think it will matter much for Carolina. People love to crap on the Leafs, but I think it's pretty clear that Carolina's core can't get it done either. Adding Laine won't change that.

Feels like Toronto incorrectly went “all in” or close to it too often and too prematurely whereas Carolina never went “all in” and squandered their window. Failures for opposite reasons.

 

[Evilhomer]

Feels like Toronto incorrectly went “all in” or close to it too often and too prematurely whereas Carolina never went “all in” and squandered their window. Failures for opposite reasons.

Agreed.