Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[seanlinden]

Montour at that cap hit would have made more sense did the Leafs didn’t have Rielly

This.

Montour was an excellent fit on Florida because they had Aaron Ekblad on an opposing pair, and a really solid complimentary defenceman in Niko Mikkola to play with him.

Sure, Simon Benoit and Brandon Montour might have made for a really interesting / similar 2nd pair, but the utilization would have had to have been much different than he got in Florida... because the other pair would be Rielly-McCabe or something like that.

What the Leafs need, is their Aaron Ekblad. Size, physical play, reasonable puckmoving ability, and ability to log large minutes in tough situations. Somebody to play with a Jake McCabe on the 2nd pair.

Tanev is a really solid addition because he should be able to make a Rielly-Tanev pair really run well, or go alongside Jake McCabe for a bit of nastiness in a full on shutdown role. He's paid in such a fashion that on a good defensive team, he can and probably should be your 3rd highest paid Dman.

Really, what the Leafs needed to do on the blueline was convert Liljegren, OEL, and a few million from one of Tavares/Marner into one of those big right shot defencemen.... the challenge of course being that they're REALLY hard to get.

 

[jaric1862]

I hope Utah bottoms out because Nick Bjugstad is the perfect deadline addition

 

[Dekes For Days]

Smaller, right winger that puts up a pile of assists.

They are average size, and a 69 point player and 104 point player are not "very very similar" just because they are both primarily playmakers. They are in completely different tiers as players.

 

[seanlinden]

They are average size, and a 69 point player and 104 point player are not "very very similar" just because they are both primarily playmakers. They are in completely different tiers as players.

I think if you give Barzal a centre like Matthews on a team that flows freely offensively like Toronto does, and the difference between the two is A LOT smaller than their prior stats indicate.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think if you give Barzal a centre like Matthews on a team that flows freely offensively like Toronto does, and the difference between the two is A LOT smaller than their prior stats indicate.

There is zero justification for claims that the only difference between them is linemates, and there is zero justification for them making anything close to each other. One is vastly better offensively and defensively. Again, it's like comparing Barzal to a 33 point player and claiming they should be paid the same.

 

[conFABulator]

This.

Montour was an excellent fit on Florida because they had Aaron Ekblad on an opposing pair, and a really solid complimentary defenceman in Niko Mikkola to play with him.

Sure, Simon Benoit and Brandon Montour might have made for a really interesting / similar 2nd pair, but the utilization would have had to have been much different than he got in Florida... because the other pair would be Rielly-McCabe or something like that.

What the Leafs need, is their Aaron Ekblad. Size, physical play, reasonable puckmoving ability, and ability to log large minutes in tough situations. Somebody to play with a Jake McCabe on the 2nd pair.

Tanev is a really solid addition because he should be able to make a Rielly-Tanev pair really run well, or go alongside Jake McCabe for a bit of nastiness in a full on shutdown role. He's paid in such a fashion that on a good defensive team, he can and probably should be your 3rd highest paid Dman.

Really, what the Leafs needed to do on the blueline was convert Liljegren, OEL, and a few million from one of Tavares/Marner into one of those big right shot defencemen.... the challenge of course being that they're REALLY hard to get.

What RD was that? Roy? Was it just about is not topping the Caps offer? Are we better off with Roy and a replacement for Liljegren, than we are with OEL and Liljegren? I don't disagree.

Was there anyone else?

Now, next year can we make Eklund our Eklund? Is it a fair trade to let Marner walk as UFA so we can sign Eklund for 75% of what Marner will get? We have to replace Marner and that comes from Domi, Knies, McMann, Robertson, Cowan, and Grebyonkin growing in their roles? We also save $3M on Marner and have the Tavares money to another forward.

Rielly Tanev
McCabe Eklund
OEL Liljegren
Benoit Niemela Hakanpaa

Is that not about as good as it gets for us? I wanted Skjei this offseason for this reason. Same configuration, Skjei can play RD. Of course this is a year away. Not exactly helping us this year.

Ok, so we have moved F cap to D cap. We have Marner, Tavares and let's say both of Kampf and Jarnkrok coming off the books. That's around $26M in cap space before an expected bump of $5M.

How do we spend the $31M?

• Raises to Woll, Knies, McCabe and a few others will cost us about $7M, but we want to keep those guys, so that's what it costs.
• We throw $8M at Ekblad for seven years and we have our top four of Rielly, Tanev, McCabe, and Ekblad. We also have a strong bottom pair and depth, and a handful of prospects we might want integrate in Niemela, Chadwick, Webber, Danford...Benoit and Liljegren are both young also. $16M left.
• Our Goaltending is set. Next year is Woll and Stolarz part two. We have accommodated Woll's increase in the above calculation. That leaves us $16M to spend on forwards.
• Maybe you throw $3M of that at Tavares to 3C us for two or three years? $13M left.
• You throw another $5 to $8M on some re-signs and bridges for the guys replacing those that left. Minten in for Kampf, Cowan in for Marner, Holmberg in for Jarnkrok, and Grebyenkin in for Holmberg, Robertson sticking around and getting a raise. That leaves us about $5M to $8M.

Knies Matthews Domi
Cowan Nylander Grebyenkin
Robertson Tavares McMann
Holmberg
Minten
Dewar
Tverberg
Hirvonen

That's a pretty solid forward group, very impressive if our kids hit their potential. Knies, Cowan Minten, Robertson, Holmberg and Grebyenkin becoming our next level seems like a necessary step.

Anyway, we have $5M to $8M to spend on a forward or two. We could probably go as high as $10M if we cut bait on Liljegren and replace him as a third pairing as from within...say Benoit or Niemela.

What do we want? Konency or Bennett make that second line look tougher to play against. Verhaeghe and Vatrano score goals too. Pushing Grebyenkin down to a guy fighting for a spot on the fourth line makes us a deeper team We might even have $3M to spend on the bottom six.

I guess is the path for winning from letting Marner play for his next contract year and all playoffs. If he's great, we pay him. It means we won something and can build on it. If he is not great, then we effectively trade him for Ekblad and some cap space.

 

[Knies iT]

This.

Montour was an excellent fit on Florida because they had Aaron Ekblad on an opposing pair, and a really solid complimentary defenceman in Niko Mikkola to play with him.

Sure, Simon Benoit and Brandon Montour might have made for a really interesting / similar 2nd pair, but the utilization would have had to have been much different than he got in Florida... because the other pair would be Rielly-McCabe or something like that.

What the Leafs need, is their Aaron Ekblad. Size, physical play, reasonable puckmoving ability, and ability to log large minutes in tough situations. Somebody to play with a Jake McCabe on the 2nd pair.

Tanev is a really solid addition because he should be able to make a Rielly-Tanev pair really run well, or go alongside Jake McCabe for a bit of nastiness in a full on shutdown role. He's paid in such a fashion that on a good defensive team, he can and probably should be your 3rd highest paid Dman.

Really, what the Leafs needed to do on the blueline was convert Liljegren, OEL, and a few million from one of Tavares/Marner into one of those big right shot defencemen.... the challenge of course being that they're REALLY hard to get.

Based on reports, this is basically what Tre’s plan sounded like. Struck out on both Roy and Montour.

Really curious to know how close it was with Roy. I would have gone higher on dollars. But I get the feeling he prioritized staying in the US. Roy and Tanev would have been achievable cap wise.

I can’t get excited about this team’s contending chances until they add at least one more high quality blueliner that can give them impact beyond 1-3yrs like Tanev. Having zero plan for the departures/decline of Muzzin/Brodie is going to lead to desperate overpays (the term on Tanev being one).

 

[Al14]

Even If Marner plays 0 games next year because the Leafs stupidly make him a healthy scratch him all year, he'll still get a fat contract on the open market when he hits free agency.

As long as that fat contract IS NOT with our Leafs, I'd be happy with that. Marner is a selfish, greedy player that only plays for himself, and not for his team. That's why he under performs in the playoffs.

JMHO.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Speculation.

And he was so out to lunch ... wrt NMC clauses and history proves it.

Click bait.

Bryan McCabe, the way a story should be written

Fair and balanced. That is all we want right? Lyle Richardson is not a Leaf fan. So the opportunity to bash the buds on his spectorshockey.com is always there. However, as in most cases the guy pre…

torontosportsmedia.wordpress.com

Was "click bait" even a thing 16 years ago?

 

[notDatsyuk]

They are average size, and a 69 point player and 104 point player are not "very very similar" just because they are both primarily playmakers. They are in completely different tiers as players.

Barzal has never had a 69 point season, and Marner has never had a 104 point season.

Last year Barzal ended the season with 5 fewer points (80 to 85),

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Barzal has never had a 69 point season, and Marner has never had a 104 point season.

Last year Barzal ended the season with 5 fewer points (80 to 85),

11 games less for Marner.

Prorate for the whole season and Marner has 101 points and Barzal has 82.

 

[Stephen]

I think if you give Barzal a centre like Matthews on a team that flows freely offensively like Toronto does, and the difference between the two is A LOT smaller than their prior stats indicate.

Barzal actually put up 85 points in 2017-18 as a rookie and at that point was the highest point total in comparison with what Matthews, Marner and Nylander had produced up to that point.

At one point around 2013 and 2014 he was also considered the McDavid of the west and a presumptive second overall candidate.

So Barzal has some massive untapped offense and isn’t nearly the peasant he’s being framed as by some.

 

[seanlinden]

What RD was that? Roy? Was it just about is not topping the Caps offer? Are we better off with Roy and a replacement for Liljegren, than we are with OEL and Liljegren? I don't disagree.

Was there anyone else?

Now, next year can we make Eklund our Eklund? Is it a fair trade to let Marner walk as UFA so we can sign Eklund for 75% of what Marner will get? We have to replace Marner and that comes from Domi, Knies, McMann, Robertson, Cowan, and Grebyonkin growing in their roles? We also save $3M on Marner and have the Tavares money to another forward.

Rielly Tanev
McCabe Eklund
OEL Liljegren
Benoit Niemela Hakanpaa

Is that not about as good as it gets for us? I wanted Skjei this offseason for this reason. Same configuration, Skjei can play RD. Of course this is a year away. Not exactly helping us this year.

Ok, so we have moved F cap to D cap. We have Marner, Tavares and let's say both of Kampf and Jarnkrok coming off the books. That's around $26M in cap space before an expected bump of $5M.

How do we spend the $31M?

• Raises to Woll, Knies, McCabe and a few others will cost us about $7M, but we want to keep those guys, so that's what it costs.
• We throw $8M at Ekblad for seven years and we have our top four of Rielly, Tanev, McCabe, and Ekblad. We also have a strong bottom pair and depth, and a handful of prospects we might want integrate in Niemela, Chadwick, Webber, Danford...Benoit and Liljegren are both young also. $16M left.
• Our Goaltending is set. Next year is Woll and Stolarz part two. We have accommodated Woll's increase in the above calculation. That leaves us $16M to spend on forwards.
• Maybe you throw $3M of that at Tavares to 3C us for two or three years? $13M left.
• You throw another $5 to $8M on some re-signs and bridges for the guys replacing those that left. Minten in for Kampf, Cowan in for Marner, Holmberg in for Jarnkrok, and Grebyenkin in for Holmberg, Robertson sticking around and getting a raise. That leaves us about $5M to $8M.

Knies Matthews Domi
Cowan Nylander Grebyenkin
Robertson Tavares McMann
Holmberg
Minten
Dewar
Tverberg
Hirvonen

That's a pretty solid forward group, very impressive if our kids hit their potential. Knies, Cowan Minten, Robertson, Holmberg and Grebyenkin becoming our next level seems like a necessary step.

Anyway, we have $5M to $8M to spend on a forward or two. We could probably go as high as $10M if we cut bait on Liljegren and replace him as a third pairing as from within...say Benoit or Niemela.

What do we want? Konency or Bennett make that second line look tougher to play against. Verhaeghe and Vatrano score goals too. Pushing Grebyenkin down to a guy fighting for a spot on the fourth line makes us a deeper team We might even have $3M to spend on the bottom six.

I guess is the path for winning from letting Marner play for his next contract year and all playoffs. If he's great, we pay him. It means we won something and can build on it. If he is not great, then we effectively trade him for Ekblad and some cap space.

When you're doing the "free agency exercise"; it's not just about topping the Caps offer, the player's gotta want to be there, and be willing to sign at a price that makes sense.

As for Ekblad, call me crazy, but I don't see him leaving Florida for $8m.... but if he does reach UFA, I would certainly throw the bank at him. There are not a lot of defencemen like him in the league... you've got him, Parayko, Pietrangelo, Carlo, and the list seems to drop a fair bit off after that.

That being said, even if you have to pay Ekblad $10m, realistically, you're not going to keep all 3 of OEL, Liljegren and McCabe as your bottom 3... so that would free up a bit of space to spend up front.

 

[seanlinden]

Based on reports, this is basically what Tre’s plan sounded like. Struck out on both Roy and Montour.

Really curious to know how close it was with Roy. I would have gone higher on dollars. But I get the feeling he prioritized staying in the US. Roy and Tanev would have been achievable cap wise.

I can’t get excited about this team’s contending chances until they add at least one more high quality blueliner that can give them impact beyond 1-3yrs like Tanev. Having zero plan for the departures/decline of Muzzin/Brodie is going to lead to desperate overpays (the term on Tanev being one).

To be honest, I wasn't the biggest "proponent" of a Roy signing, simply because I felt that the Leafs needed to trade Marner, that they could get a better defenceman than Roy in a Marner trade, and then you'd have had an over-flooded blueline.

Ultimately, I think there were rumours that Roy really didn't want to come to Canada, and at the end of the day, the dollars have to make sense, which means you can't be overpaying guys to make them want to be here. Giving Roy $6.5m x 7 would have been a potentially very difficult contract to move if a better option were to come up.

 

[Kurtz]

When you're doing the "free agency exercise"; it's not just about topping the Caps offer, the player's gotta want to be there, and be willing to sign at a price that makes sense.

As for Ekblad, call me crazy, but I don't see him leaving Florida for $8m.... but if he does reach UFA, I would certainly throw the bank at him. There are not a lot of defencemen like him in the league... you've got him, Parayko, Pietrangelo, Carlo, and the list seems to drop a fair bit off after that.

That being said, even if you have to pay Ekblad $10m, realistically, you're not going to keep all 3 of OEL, Liljegren and McCabe as your bottom 3... so that would free up a bit of space to spend up front.

Panthers fans say that Ekblad is not the dman he used to be and is carried by Forsling nowadays. Injuries may have caught up to him.

 

[arso40]

I think if you give Barzal a centre like Matthews on a team that flows freely offensively like Toronto does, and the difference between the two is A LOT smaller than their prior stats indicate.

personally i would trade marner 1 for 1 to get barzal

 

[Dekes For Days]

Barzal has never had a 69 point season, and Marner has never had a 104 point season.

Barzal put up a 69 point pace over the 3 years prior to signing, and Marner has put up a 104 point pace over the past 3 years.

Last year Barzal ended the season with 5 fewer points (80 to 85),

Not only wildly misleading, as Barzal paced for 19 points less, but also completely irrelevant to Barzal's contract signed 2 years ago.

 

[tokyoite]

leafs had a chance to lure stamkos to his hometown.
treliving and shanahan are idiots.

 

[mydnyte]

Barzal actually put up 85 points in 2017-18 as a rookie and at that point was the highest point total in comparison with what Matthews, Marner and Nylander had produced up to that point.

At one point around 2013 and 2014 he was also considered the McDavid of the west and a presumptive second overall candidate.

So Barzal has some massive untapped offense and isn’t nearly the peasant he’s being framed as by some.

...and has never reached that point total again and will be entering his 9th season in the NHL.

 

[conFABulator]

When you're doing the "free agency exercise"; it's not just about topping the Caps offer, the player's gotta want to be there, and be willing to sign at a price that makes sense.

As for Ekblad, call me crazy, but I don't see him leaving Florida for $8m.... but if he does reach UFA, I would certainly throw the bank at him. There are not a lot of defencemen like him in the league... you've got him, Parayko, Pietrangelo, Carlo, and the list seems to drop a fair bit off after that.

That being said, even if you have to pay Ekblad $10m, realistically, you're not going to keep all 3 of OEL, Liljegren and McCabe as your bottom 3... so that would free up a bit of space to spend up front.

I agree that it might not have just been money for Roy, maybe he didn't want to come here. I was just wondering what RD that OP was suggesting we "should have got".

As for Ekblad. I think Florida has cap issues of their own coming and have to resign Ekblad, Verhaeghe, and Bennett. Ekblad might not get an $8M offer from Florida or anything close.

He does come with risk due to age and I think it's a bit of desperate move based on only caring about a three or four year window for us, even though we offer max term...

 

[Stephen]

...and has never reached that point total again and will be entering his 9th season in the NHL.

He scored 80 this past year.

 

[mydnyte]

leafs had a chance to lure stamkos to his hometown.
treliving and shanahan are idiots.

I'm sorry, but did you see the contract he signed? That s a BAD @ deal 8x4

true Stmkos has 50 more points over the same span as JT with the Leafs, but, we are looking to get out from under JT's deal, and certainly wouldnt consider resigning JT at 8x4
Stamkos is the #1 option on the TB PP with Kutcherov working his magic helping to inflate Stamkos's stats... and he is a winger.
JT is a C and one of the best faceoff guys in the league, and he is not the Leafs #1 or even #2 option on our PP (though he did have a great run 2 years back when he was playing the slot)

I'm curious to see how much his stats drop having O'Rielly setting him up on the PP vs Kutcherov
I'm predicting his worst season since 2015 (points) and this is with Stamkos also as their #1 option.

 

[ULF_55]

Was "click bait" even a thing 16 years ago?

It's been a thing in some form forever ... tabloid newspaper headlines were print form.

 

[seanlinden]

I agree that it might not have just been money for Roy, maybe he didn't want to come here. I was just wondering what RD that OP was suggesting we "should have got".

As for Ekblad. I think Florida has cap issues of their own coming and have to resign Ekblad, Verhaeghe, and Bennett. Ekblad might not get an $8M offer from Florida or anything close.

He does come with risk due to age and I think it's a bit of desperate move based on only caring about a three or four year window for us, even though we offer max term...

Ekblad, Pesce, Parayko, Carlo, Pietrangelo, Ekholm (Left Side), Larsson, Lindell (Left Side), Cernak, Hanifin (Left Side), Trouba, Dobson, etc...

Obviously, very few of these guys were actually available, and of the ones that were -- notably Pesce, Hanifin, Trouba -- I understand that coming to Canada was basically a non-starter.

 

[seanlinden]

personally i would trade marner 1 for 1 to get barzal

Yeah, so would I, I think.... honestly just to be able to avoid the contract negotiation with Marner.