Proposal: Trade Rumors/Proposals 2019-20 Part II

[Micklebot]

That's my bad, I was the one who initially said he was an RFA.

It's still the same situation though. If we acquire him now, he's possibly a rental. Same as if he had a 4.9M qualifying offer, because we would not qualify him for that.

I don't mind a Boedker for Galchenyuk swap, but I don't think we should be giving up major assets for a player who could walk, and I don't think we should give term/money to Galchenyuk, There are probably more effective ways to use whatever our budget is.

In a perfect world where we can spend 80-85 million on players, then maybe it makes sense because our salary/cap obligations are so low. Judging by our roster makeup this season, I'm not sure that the Sens are willing to spend there. We have a lot of money coming off the books next season, but we also have to give raises to a few players.

I'd make that swap in a heartbeat but I doubt we'd be willing to eat the extra 1.9 mil in salary and the Pens probably want something of value rather than just slightly improving their cap situation. Would be a good opportunity to sell him on a bigger role and new lease to see if we could sign him to a short 2 or 3 year deal while he rehabs his value for a big payday down the road.

 

[GCK]

We aren't getting Spencer Knight for Pageau lol

Spencer Knight has the same value as a late first. Florida has 7 years of the Bob. There was also the context of the original post that you are ignoring.

 

[Daffy]

Spencer Knight has the same value as a late first. Florida has 7 years of the Bob. There was also the context of the original post that you are ignoring.

It has zero chance of happening.

 

[Xspyrit]

Nilsson has the 28th highest save percentage in the league, so statistically (using SVP as a metric anyways) you're take isn't all that accurate.

I'm not trying to champion Nilsson as some long-term option here, the guy kinda is what he is at this point, but saying he's the worst goalie on the ice (most of the time) regardless of who the other team is playing doesn't seem fair to the guy.

Well, it was not my intention to make him look that bad, but consider that Anderson and Nilsson have split 50/50 with 16 games each.

So even if Nilsson is better than his opponent 50% of the time, Sens only have a better goalie 25% of the time in the end, which is still "most of the time". Hopefully it's clear because I surely hope to not have to go any further on this.

We're still dealing with a bit of sample sizes but looking at goalies with 300 TOI in all strengths (62 goalies)

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Looking at this data is a much better indicator than just SV%

8th most Shots Against/60
28th in SV%
24th xG Against/60
28th HD Shots Against/60
46th in HD SV%
45th in Rush Attempts/60
55th in Avg Shot Distance

Yes he get more shots/60 than others and has an average SV% but in terms of HD and xG Against he's not facing more than the average goalie. However HD SV%, RA/60 and ASD suggests he is having an easier life than most with less rush against and more perimeter shots.

You don't want to look at Anderson.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Spencer Knight has the same value as a late first. Florida has 7 years of the Bob. There was also the context of the original post that you are ignoring.

I think the idea for Florida is that it takes 2 to 3 years for Knight to make it to the NHL and then you let him and Bob fight for starter role after Knights backs up for another 2ish season.

Knight isn't going anywhere. I understand the optics of drafting Knight then signing Bob to a long contract are a bit strange but I think it is a sound strategy.

 

[HSF]

why are people so bent on getting a goalie?

Goalies you can find its high end talent that is hard to find.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Spencer Knight has the same value as a late first. Florida has 7 years of the Bob. There was also the context of the original post that you are ignoring.

Spencer Knight is worth more than a late 1st. FLA took him knowing that they had a good chance of landing Bobrovsky. I doubt they are prepared to trade him unless it is a scenario where they are giving to get a big fish. Not a rental.

He won't have to get paid by Florida until Bobrovsky is 2 years away from being a free agent. 5 years from now, the cap will be higher - and even if Knight is good it will probably be manageable as a bridge deal.

The worst thing that could happen to them having Knight would be that they have two good goalies.....I don't think he is expendable.

 

[TheNewEra]

why are people so bent on getting a goalie?

Goalies you can find its high end talent that is hard to find.

high end talent is definitely hard to find but when was the last time Ottawa has had a good goalie

we need everything

 

[HSF]

high end talent is definitely hard to find but when was the last time Ottawa has had a good goalie

we need everything

Anderson?


ya we need everything but we have a couple of young goalies in the system already

we have zero elite forwards on the nhl team or in the system. Hell we don't give any first line forwards outside of Tkachuk

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Anderson?


ya we need everything but we have a couple of young goalies in the system already

we have zero elite forwards on the nhl team or in the system. Hell we don't give any first line forwards outside of Tkachuk

Acquiring a starter and top line talent aren't mutually exclusive things. They should do both. That's why we have all these picks and are tanking.

 

[LeProspector]

why are people so bent on getting a goalie?

Goalies you can find its high end talent that is hard to find.

Ottawa hasn’t ever developed an elite goalie.


The only Eite goalie to come to Ottawa was Hasek. And we’re all still saying to ourselves what if he didn’t get injured.

No hate against Andy, but if he’s the greatest goalie your team has ever had, it speaks volumes in my opinion.

 

[HSF]

Spencer Knight has the same value as a late first. Florida has 7 years of the Bob. There was also the context of the original post that you are ignoring.

Why would that be? he was taken 13th overall and is developing well.

 

[HSF]

Ottawa hasn’t ever developed an elite goalie.


The only Eite goalie to come to Ottawa was Hasek. And we’re all still saying to ourselves what if he didn’t get injured.

No hate against Andy, but if he’s the greatest goalie your team has ever had, it speaks volumes in my opinion.

how many teams develop elite goalies? or even have had that

There aren't many elite goalies in each generation

young goalies usually miss

 

[GCK]

Why would that be? he was taken 13th overall and is developing well.

Because 13 in his draft equates to mid 20 this year when assessing draft prognosticators opinions.

 

[SAK11]

Why would that be? he was taken 13th overall and is developing well.

It helps make the trade proposal seem halfway plausible...

 

[LeProspector]

how many teams develop elite goalies? or even have had that

There aren't many elite goalies in each generation

young goalies usually miss

It doesn’t matter how Ottawa gets the goalie; whether through trade, free agency, or the draft... Fact is that Ottawa has been in the league for 30 years and hasn’t been able to bring in an elite goalie to start for the team for an extended period of time. Most other teams have.

 

[Daffy]

It helps make the trade proposal seem halfway plausible...

The proposal is so laughably bad for Florida.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Why would that be? he was taken 13th overall and is developing well.

Having a very good year in BC
11 - 4
1.73 GAA
940 SV%

I would argue his value is increasing.

 

[HSF]

Having a very good year in BC
11 - 4
1.73 GAA
940 SV%

I would argue his value is increasing.

agreed

 

[stempniaksen]

how many teams develop elite goalies? or even have had that

There aren't many elite goalies in each generation

young goalies usually miss

Historically the Sens have probably done a worse job than your average team though.

Hasek/Anderson/Lalime are the three best goalies in franchise history and were all traded/signed.
Rhodes/Tugnutt are in the next tier and were both traded for as well.

The only guys who panned out who the Sens could get credit developing are Elliott, Emery, Lehner and Bishop.

Elliott: Guy was trending towards a career backup until he leveled up in St-Louis. Sens should still get credit for turning a 7th round pick into a backup caliber player, but I'm not sure they should get credit for prime Elliott performance, given he was never that good in his 3 stops prior to being a Blue.

Ray Emery: Up and down career. We'll never know how good he could have been without injuries and off-ice issues. Had some moments as a starter, but the guy was far from some top-half NHL starter.

Bishop: Had already developed in the Blues system when acquired, but clearly took another step in Ottawa. Team should get credit for the time he developed with the organization, but they share credit on this one, imo.

Lehner: Tough to figure out where to lay the blame as to why it didn't work out in Ottawa, but he's a guy who clearly developed through the Sens system. Another case of a guy who leveled up elsewhere, but that can be attributed just as much to Lehner improving himself off the ice than it can to the Isles/Blackhawks, imo.

Otherwise Ottawa is an absolute graveyard of has beens (Gerber, Leclaire, Auld. Barrasso) and never weres (Chouinard, Fontaine, Lajeunesse, Prusek, Hurme, O'Connor).

 

[HSF]

Historically the Sens have probably done a worse job than your average team though.

Hasek/Anderson/Lalime are the three best goalies in franchise history and were all traded/signed.
Rhodes/Tugnutt are in the next tier and were both traded for as well.

The only guys who panned out who the Sens could get credit developing are Elliott, Emery, Lehner and Bishop.

Elliott: Guy was trending towards a career backup until he leveled up in St-Louis. Sens should still get credit for turning a 7th round pick into a backup caliber player, but I'm not sure they should get credit for prime Elliott performance, given he was never that good in his 3 stops prior to being a Blue.

Ray Emery: Up and down career. We'll never know how good he could have been without injuries and off-ice issues. Had some moments as a starter, but the guy was far from some top-half NHL starter.

Bishop: Had already developed in the Blues system when acquired, but clearly took another step in Ottawa. Team should get credit for the time he developed with the organization, but they share credit on this one, imo.

Lehner: Tough to figure out where to lay the blame as to why it didn't work out in Ottawa, but he's a guy who clearly developed through the Sens system. Another case of a guy who leveled up elsewhere, but that can be attributed just as much to Lehner improving himself off the ice than it can to the Isles/Blackhawks, imo.

Otherwise Ottawa is an absolute graveyard of has beens (Gerber, Leclaire, Auld. Barrasso) and never weres (Chouinard, Fontaine, Lajeunesse, Prusek, Hurme, O'Connor).

so going by this we should trade for a goalie that is already developed by another team

Just looking at our own division almost everyone traded for a goalie except Price who is elite and once in 10 years type talent

I rather draft and trade for young forwards and defensemen who are more likely to hit

 

[aragorn]

UFAs who could get dealt - Pageau C, Anderson G, Ennis LW, Namestikov LW, Hainsey RD, Boro LD, DeMello RD, Goloubef RD, Boedker LW, Sabourin RW & Szwarz C

RFAs who could get dealt - Tierny C or maybe even Duclair LW/RW

Other players who could get traded but doubtful - Ryan RW, Anisimov C/LW or even Zaitsev RD

 

[aragorn]

I'm all in on the Sens drafting Yaroslav Askorov G in the 2020 draft with the SJ 1st rd pick, even if they need to add other assets to move up to get him. IMO he is forecasted to become an elite goalie & could be a fixture in net for Ottawa for the next decade at least. IMO he could be NHL ready within three yrs & already is the best junior aged goalie in the world & better than Spencer Knight who was drafted in the first rd last yr. And again IMO would be the best goalie in the Sens org & they can always trade a couple of their goalies at some future point if their values increase.

 

[stempniaksen]

so going by this we should trade for a goalie that is already developed by another team

Just looking at our own division almost everyone traded for a goalie except Price who is elite and once in 10 years type talent

I rather draft and trade for young forwards and defensemen who are more likely to hit

Depends if you trust Dorion/Groulx to develop what's currently in the system. Personally I'd have approached the rebuild that way (kind of like the LEafs did trading a late 1st for a legit guy in Andersen). Based on the resources put into our current group of prospects I think it's pretty clear the org wants to develop the future in nets from within. Hopefully the guys they currently have are more Lehner/Bishop than Chouinard/O'Connor.

 

[LeProspector]

Depends if you trust Dorion/Groulx to develop what's currently in the system. Personally I'd have approached the rebuild that way (kind of like the LEafs did trading a late 1st for a legit guy in Andersen). Based on the resources put into our current group of prospects I think it's pretty clear the org wants to develop the future in nets from within. Hopefully the guys they currently have are more Lehner/Bishop than Chouinard/O'Connor.

Just a quick look around the league of guys Ottawa could target:
Holtby-UFA
Jarry/Murray-PIT
Georgiev-NYR
Raanta-ARI
Montembeaut-FLA
Demko/Markstrom/DiPietro-Van
Subban-VGK

That of course is if Ottawa doesn’t believe in any of Nilsson, Hogberg, Gustavsson, D’accord, Soogard or Mandolese