Speculation: Trade / Roster Speculation Thread XXXIV: Over the edge of being a little closer.

[Brooklyn Ranger]

Okay, so maybe I'm just being dumb, but it seems like our players never get bonuses on the their contracts.

Nowadays, I'm constantly seeing guys around the league get huge possible bonuses, with a much lower actual cap hit. Don't see the Rangers doing it.

Am I seeing this correctly?

Bonuses are part of the cap calculation, when they are allowed. There are lots of rules involved about who is allowed to receive signing bonuses and performance bonuses. But, in the end, all the money to be paid out over the contract is added up and then divided by the # of years the contract runs. Go to capgeek.com and check out the pages for Richards and Lundqvist (who will never actually be paid $8.5 million in any year) and you will understand it better.

 

[Ola]

Yes, I do not think there would be tooooo much bad blood on the buyout. He knows it is a business and the rangers are Strapped. His performance this year has lived up to the Contract (for the first time) but he "probably" is only downhill from here. Hope he has a great Finals and wins the cup.

Yeah, on the other hand, he has already lost a bit of a step (although he never have been that much faster), I don't think he necessarily must get like "10%" slower each day from now on and forward. I wouldn't be shocked if he played at the level he is now for another 5 years.

 

[Ola]

imho boston, philly and la are your 3 most physical teams...i dont think they are in a class of their own for sure.

Yeah, and Philly like got 3-4 guys carrying all the load. A lot of guys on that roster that isn't physical at all. CBJ could challenge them in a ranking...

 

[Blue Blooded]

This isn't exactly realistic, and very risky, but I think the following moves could either help us take the next step or see us falter. The girt, heart, and truculence crowd won't like them one bit.

Buy out Brad Richards.

Trade Dan Girardi to Anaheim for Sami Vatanen and sign Vatanen to a bridge contract worth $1.7M/year.

Trade Derek Dorsett and Kevin Klein to the Oilers for picks/prospects.

Let Brian Boyle and Dominic Moore walk.

Re-sign Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, Derrick Brassard, and Anton Strålman to medium/long term deals worth an average of $4M/year.

Re-sign Benoit Pouliot to a short term deal worth $2M/year.

Re-sign Raphael Diaz, John Moore, and Daniel Carcillo to short term deals worth an average of $1M/year.

Sign UFA Mikhail Grabovski to a medium term deal worth $5M/year.

Promote J.T. Miller, Oscar Lindberg, Jesper Fast, and Conor Allen to the NHL team permanently.

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Chris Kreider ($4.000m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.000m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Benoit Pouliot ($2.000m) / Derick Brassard ($4.000m) / Mats Zuccarello ($4.000m)
J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Oscar Lindberg ($0.675m) / Jesper Fast ($0.805m)
Daniel Carcillo ($1.000m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Anton Stralman ($4.000m)
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / Sami Vatanen ($1.700m)
Conor Allen ($0.925m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.000m)
John Moore ($1.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,486,667; BONUSES: $1,380,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $3,613,333

Girardi just doesn't fit this team. He plays very well with grinders, but is a millstone for skilled players and doesn't actually handle top competition all that well. As we have transitioned from a grinding team to a fast possession team Girardi, like Callahan, just doesn't fit in anymore. By acquiring the young, skilled Vatanen we save money on defence so that we can sign a legit center. Grabovski is a very skilled two-way center who caught a bad rap thanks to Carlyle's idiocy.

This is a team we can afford to keep together going forward, especially with a growing cap. Size, speed, and skill on every line. Great puck movement from the entire defence.

I don't think I'd actually dare to do this if I was the NYR GM, but I'd like to see what such a team could do.

 

[Ola]

Blueblood- I agree on Girardi, especially if we can win the Cup this year. We would know what it takes to win, we wouldn't need to keep a tradition carrier around like Girardi. I actually think Klein down the road could replace Girardi fairly well. Don't get me wrong, Girardi is really valuble. But we would 1) save a lot of money by replacing him with a cheaper defensiveminded D, and 2) we could get a good return if we traded him.

BUT, Girardi got a NMC...

 

[Ola]

Its not easy to operate this team going forward.

If you win the Cup, you do need an infusion of an fair amount of energy to the roster the year after. We have a lot of players with NMCs or that are FAs.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Blueblood- I agree on Girardi, especially if we can win the Cup this year. We would know what it takes to win, we wouldn't need to keep a tradition carrier around like Girardi. I actually think Klein down the road could replace Girardi fairly well. Don't get me wrong, Girardi is really valuble. But we would 1) save a lot of money by replacing him with a cheaper defensiveminded D, and 2) we could get a good return if we traded him.

BUT, Girardi got a NMC...

Doesn't take effect until his new contract starts (I'm guessing July 1st/5th). Trade him at the draft.

Perhaps not entirely above board, but this is a business.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Sign UFA Mikhail Grabovski to a medium term deal worth $5M/year.

What has Grabovski done to warrant giving him 5M a year?

 

[Blue Blooded]

What has Grabovski done to warrant giving him 5M a year?

I think that is what it would take in order to get him to sign a shorter deal. Remember, he got $5.5M/year on his previous contract which was signed under a lower cap - and I think that was a pretty fair deal at the time. The buyout was just ridiculously stupid.

One bad shortened season under the worst coach in the league doesn't take away from his entire body of work.

He was one of the few positives on a terrible Washington team this year. Ovechkin scored 1/3 of his 5v5 points in the 1/5 of his 5v5 time he spent with Grabovski. Ovechkin was a plus player with Grabovski on the ice, despite having a hilariously bad +/- overall.

Grabovski is without a doubt going to be the best bang for the buck UFA forward this offseason.

 

[haohmaru]

No way do I trade Girardi after he signs here long term and runs us through NINE, that's NINE, playoff rounds in 3 years and is the perfect 1st pairing guy for McD. No way.

The guy to trade is Staal, who has elevated his value and has a year 'til he's a UFA who we probably can't afford to sign.

 

[Blue Blooded]

No way do I trade Girardi after he signs here long term and runs us through NINE, that's NINE, playoff rounds in 3 years and is the perfect 1st pairing guy for McD. No way.

The guy to trade is Staal, who has elevated his value and has a year 'til he's a UFA who we probably can't afford to sign.

There is very little evidence that suggests that Girardi is the perfect partner for McDonagh (or even a good one). There is a ton of evidence suggesting that he is a terrible partner for McDonagh.

McDoangh has been ridiculously dominant when he has gotten to play without Girardi.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

I think that is what it would take in order to get him to sign a shorter deal. Remember, he got $5.5M/year on his previous contract which was signed under a lower cap - and I think that was a pretty fair deal at the time. The buyout was just ridiculously stupid.

One bad shortened season under the worst coach in the league doesn't take away from his entire body of work.

He was one of the few positives on a terrible Washington team this year. Ovechkin scored 1/3 of his 5v5 points in the 1/5 of his 5v5 time he spent with Grabovski. Ovechkin was a plus player with Grabovski on the ice, despite having a hilariously bad +/- overall.

Grabovski is without a doubt going to be the best bang for the buck UFA forward this offseason.

He's topped 50 points twice in his career. He's never scored 30 goals. His production has gone down every year since 2010-2011. This is the guy you want tp overpay in order to get him to sign a shorter deal?

You're original plan strips a lot of the leadership, character and identity of this current team and, to me, replaces those guys with players who don't replace the loses of other guys and/or just aren't very good. And I'm not sure what your ultimate goal is with the team you've constructed.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

There is very little evidence that suggests that Girardi is the perfect partner for McDonagh (or even a good one).

Huh?

There is a ton of evidence suggesting that he is a terrible partner for McDonagh.

Oh?

McDoangh has been ridiculously dominant when he has gotten to play without Girardi.

Wha?

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

I really want to like advanced stats but then I read things like "there is no evidence that Girardi is even a good partner for McDonagh" and the sense check just does not compute. In addition to the since deleted graph ranking NYR dmen 1. Stralman 2. John Moore. Ohhhhkaaayyyy.

 

[Trxjw]

Let me guess. Stralman is the better partner for McDonagh?

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Girardi is a defensive rock on the right side that can play big minutes against the oppositions top lines.

Hes both invaluable and unsung.

 

[Blue Blooded]

He's topped 50 points twice in his career. He's never scored 30 goals. His production has gone down every year since 2010-2011. This is the guy you want tp overpay in order to get him to sign a shorter deal?

You're original plan strips a lot of the leadership, character and identity of this current team and, to me, replaces those guys with players who don't replace the loses of other guys and/or just aren't very good. And I'm not sure what your ultimate goal is with the team you've constructed.

Mostly a thought experiment, that team could very well crash and burn. But I'd like to see how they would perform in a hypothetical sense. I think it could be a "1 step back, 3 steps forward"-team.

But yes, I think money is probably better spent on Grabovski than Girardi/Klein.

 

[aufheben]

Girardi isn't the kind of player that would have good advanced stats. Klein has the best Corsi of our defensemen these playoffs, he's not better than Girardi. G's sole job 5-on-5 is to shutdown the other team's best players. Corsi can be useful, but can be misleading without the proper context.

If anyone is being trading, it's probably Stralman, IMO.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Let me guess. Stralman is the better partner for McDonagh?

Yes. The numbers aren't everything, but when they are as overwhelming as the difference between McDonagh-Strålman and McDonagh-Girardi you can't look past them.

Girardi is a defensive rock on the right side that can play big minutes against the oppositions top lines.

Hes both invaluable and unsung.

He isn't good against top competition if you actually look at the results. He is great at supporting grinding forwards, but hampers skilled players on his team. A great fit for the 10-11 and 11-12 Rangers, but on this team he hinders more than he helps.

He's a lot better than Klein though.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Girardi isn't the kind of player that would have good advanced stats. Klein has the best Corsi of our defensemen these playoffs, he's not better than Girardi. G's sole job 5-on-5 is to shutdown the other team's best players. Corsi can be useful, but can be misleading without the proper context.

Not much of an advanced stats guy, but aren't Corsi rating a bit flawed when it comes to match ups?

Girardi is a guy that goes up against the opposition's top forwards every single night. Makes sense that he'll have an increase of shots being directed towards the net on his watch. The opposition's forwards are just more talented.

Then theres a guy like Klein who, on the 3rd pair on a deep team, gets the advantage of playing against forwards that are not as offensively inclined.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Yes. The numbers aren't everything, but when they are as overwhelming as the difference between McDonagh-Strålman and McDonagh-Girardi you can't look past them.



He isn't good against top competition if you actually look at the results. He is great at supporting grinding forwards, but hampers skilled players on his team. A great fit for the 10-11 and 11-12 Rangers, but on this team he hinders more than he helps.

He's a lot better than Klein though.

The results are the Rangers are in the Stanley cup finals with Girardi getting the toughest defensive assignments on 1st pair RD.

Those results are more important than your fun with #'s.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Girardi isn't the kind of player that would have good advanced stats. Klein has the best Corsi of our defensemen these playoffs, he's not better than Girardi. G's sole job 5-on-5 is to shutdown the other team's best players. Corsi can be useful, but can be misleading without the proper context.

If you look at the article I linked to, you'll see that he performs below expectation against top guys while McDonagh and Strålman exceed them in the same situation.

Until I did the actual research I genuinely thought Girardi might be better against the tough matchups while Strålman racked up his possession statistics against soft matchups. This turned out to be completely false.

Klein's Corsi in the playoffs is encouraging, but likely mostly down to extreme sheltering. He has proven to be absolutely dreadful against above average competition over the past three seasons.

 

[aufheben]

Staal and Stralman don't get soft match-ups, but McDonagh-Girardi get the toughest one's.

 

[Blue Blooded]

The results are the Rangers are in the Stanley cup finals with Girardi getting the toughest defensive assignments on 1st pair RD.

Those results are more important than your fun with #'s.

Yes, but just barely this season. Staal-Strålman has seen almost as tough competition and tougher zone starts in the playoffs.

Look, I'm not suggesting we bench Girardi in the SCF or something stupid like that. But I think his contract will hurt us going forward, and I genuinely believe that McDonagh will benefit massively from not having to play with him.

You can't just say: this team was good enough to reach the finals, let's do nothing.

A) There is a salary cap. We can't afford to keep everyone.

B) You always need to look for ways to improve.

Personally I think the biggest issue the Rangers currently have is that they trot out Girardi for 22+ minutes a night, and that they would improve by finding a replacement.

When I realized that Girardi isn't even above average against top competition, the last excuse I had for keeping him vanished.

 

[aufheben]

Nonetheless, if there's an odd man out on defense, it's Stralman; Girardi isn't going anywhere. McD-G is the top pairing on the PK as well, and Stralman doesn't share the added responsibility of the PP. We've made the 3rd/2nd/4th rounds with McDonagh-Girardi as the top pairing, I don't see any reason to change it.