GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - Training camp approaches

[Kurtz]

I am a Blackhawks fan as well, yes.

You don't think Hyman, Barrie, Gardiner, Komarov etc at the time would have returned 2nd-3rd round picks? Some of the picks might have been good to use but it also could have been some decent currency in those off-seasons.

Can you name a few examples of teams with cup aspirations trading away important players at the deadline for picks?

 

[Nylanderthal]

I am a Blackhawks fan as well, yes.

You don't think Hyman, Barrie, Gardiner, Komarov etc at the time would have returned 2nd-3rd round picks? Some of the picks might have been good to use but it also could have been some decent currency in those off-seasons.

No. There’s no chance they were trading Hyman going into this post season, Gardiner was damaged goods and the team had just acquired Muzzin to shore up the D, subtracting Gards wasn’t really an option. Uncle Leo? Mehhhh guys like him are useful in the post season and I’m sure his value to the lineup of a team heading into a series with Boston (while posing a franchise best record in the regular season) outweighed the 3rd-4th rounder you’d of gotten for him. Barrie I can go either way on, but again the team was playing well under a new coach and Barrie looked like he was coming around.
You just don’t see competing teams move too many guys who have defined roles in the line up.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Can you name a few examples of teams with cup aspirations trading away important players at the deadline for picks?

No. There’s no chance they were reading Hyman going into this post season, Gardiner was damaged goods and the team had just acquired Muzzin to shore up the D, subtracting Gards wasn’t really an option. Uncle Leo? Mehhhh guys like him are useful in the post season and I’m sure his value to the lineup of a team heading into a series with Boston (while posing a franchise best record in the regular season) outweighed the 3rd-4th rounder you’d of gotten for him. Barrie I can go either way on, but again the team was playing well under a new coach and Barrie looked like he was coming around.
You just don’t see competing teams move too many guys who have defined roles in the line up.

Bruins couldn't agree on a contract with Lucic, traded him in the off-season for a 1st, Jones, Collin Miller. Flipped Martin Jones for an additional 1st.

Blues traded Shattenkirk prior to the trade deadline, they were in their window just as we have been.

Wonder what Rielly would have fetched at the draft-July 1st window. We will never know now.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Leafs spent a 1st, 3rd, 2 4ths and a 5th this past deadline alone, a 3rd rounder + Trevor Moore were traded for Clifford the year before etc.

What is "etc."? Because you just named the only other rental player we've gotten under this management prior to this year - Clifford (50% retained). And no, we didn't pay a 3rd + Trevor Moore for him. You seem to forget that we obtained Campbell in that deal, who is the more significant player and not a rental. For the record, we also picked up a free 5th that deadline. We've spent pretty much nothing on rentals prior to this year.

This year, in a weak draft year made weaker by Covid, as a division leader, we spent some draft picks to improve the team. Which is what any other team in our position would do.

What UFAs did they sell and get back more assets than that (edit: misunderstood your point i think your saying we got more through UFAs than was lost which still isn't true)?

We're not selling UFAs, because we're in a competitive phase, not a rebuilding phase. My statement was referring to the fact that nobody seems to include the players that are brought in through UFA, which is more than what we've lost. We've been able to improve the team despite all of these players supposedly leaving. Dubas must be doing a pretty great job.

not sustainable and will result in a limited prospect pool in the future

Our prospect pool is healthy, and in the best shape it's been in since the rebuild era.

We have a great team, and a legitimate chance at the cup. This is when you go for it. This is not when you make your team worse to accumulate futures.

 

[Kurtz]

Bruins couldn't agree on a contract with Lucic, traded him in the off-season for a 1st, Jones, Collin Miller. Flipped Martin Jones for an additional 1st.

Blues traded Shattenkirk prior to the trade deadline, they were in their window just as we have been.

Wonder what Rielly would have fetched at the draft-July 1st window. We will never know now.

Bruins were entering a rebuild that year, they did not have cup aspirations, so that example I'm afraid doesn't work.

Shatty is the only instance I can think of where a thing like you've suggested occured - even there, I believe St Louis didn't much like him over their other options at the time.

In short, what you're suggesting simply doesn't happen (more than say once a decade) and is thus unrealistic.

 

[zeke]

And you think this is good asset management? It’s f***ing garbage asset management from the worst GM in the league. If you let players walk for free that you could trade for assets, that’s the definition of horrible asset management. Shouldn’t surprise you with Dubass at the helm. Garbage GM who lost so many players for nothing while neglecting to trade them or coughing up first rounders. Dubass should have been fired a long time ago, but if he loses Rielly for nothing, I can’t think of a more deplorable offense.

Good team let free agents walk all the time. They don't trade them away years before their contracts are up.

 

[SnizzNasty88]

If Morgan Rielly isn’t signed by opening night, I’m already shipping him out. If being a Leaf is as special to him as he says it is to the media, he’ll work something out. This organization keeps getting in its own way and it’s thanks to having the worst GM in the league. Dubass must be fired. Enough is enough. Losing Rielly for nothing should be the last and final straw if there is one. This is THE definition of pathetic asset management and it shouldn’t surprise you coming from the worst GM in the league. This is f***ing madness.

 

[SnizzNasty88]

Good team let free agents walk all the time. They don't trade them away years before their contracts are up.

Listen to yourself, you’re that headstrong on Dubass that you’re literally saying it’s fine if we let Rielly, a valuable asset that can return a lot of value in a trade, walk for nothing. Are you okay?

 

[4thline]

Bruins were entering a rebuild that year, they did not have cup aspirations, so that example I'm afraid doesn't work.

Shatty is the only instance I can think of where a thing like you've suggested occured - even there, I believe St Louis didn't much like him over their other options at the time.

In short, what you're suggesting simply doesn't happen (more than say once a decade) and is thus unrealistic.

Shattenkirk was also traded at the deadline while they were on the outside looking in, not before the season started

 

[zeke]

Listen to yourself, you’re that headstrong on Dubass that you’re literally saying it’s fine if we let Rielly, a valuable asset that can return a lot of value in a trade, walk for nothing. Are you okay?

Not sure how many times i can repeat this.

Good teams do not trade away their impending UFA.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Bruins were entering a rebuild that year, they did not have cup aspirations, so that example I'm afraid doesn't work.

Shatty is the only instance I can think of where a thing like you've suggested occured - even there, I believe St Louis didn't much like him over their other options at the time.

In short, what you're suggesting simply doesn't happen (more than say once a decade) and is thus unrealistic.

I don't think they knew they were going to be poor Lucic's last season or the season after, they were only a couple seasons removed from a cup I believe. No reason to believe anything was wrong. Most teams hold on for dear life to keep together a core that has had success.

St.Louis tried to re-sign Shattenkirk repeatedly but he wanted to go to the Rangers. In our case, specifically with Morgan Rielly, we just might be doing this knowing full well we don't have the cap to pull it off.

Blues had a ton of faith that Parayko was going to be able to take the mantle. Maybe if Sandin shows in camp that he's able to take some of Rielly's responsibilities they get comfortable with the idea of a trade later in the season.

 

[SnizzNasty88]

Not sure how many times i can repeat this.

Good teams do not trade away their impending UFA.

Smart teams trade away their pending UFA the minute they sense there’s a chance the player will walk. The fact that you can try to justify keeping Rielly without a contract really shows how out of absolute touch you are with reality. Only dumb teams like this one that aren’t close to even competing for the cup would still keep that arrogant “all in” approach and 9/10 is the absolute wrong one. Just stop it Zeke.

 

[zeke]

Smart teams trade away their pending UFA the minute they sense there’s a chance the player will walk.

Again, good teams do not trade away their impending UFA.

 

[nuck]

I guess it depends on what you mean by high value. Personally I think Hyman was another high value UFA who walked for nothing. If the corpse that was Folingo could return a 1st the much better player in Hyman would return a lot more.

Leafs spent a 1st, 3rd, 2 4ths and a 5th this past deadline alone, a 3rd rounder + Trevor Moore were traded for Clifford the year before etc. What UFAs did they sell and get back more assets than that (edit: misunderstood your point i think your saying we got more through UFAs than was lost which still isn't true)? Definitely not the first year rentals were targeted but okay. Also I'm talking about the organization as a whole since M&M joined the team they have bought rentals at the deadline and have let UFAs on the team walk for free consistently all while doing nothing in the playoffs.

I'm not even saying to trade Rielly. I think he should be resigned. No one on the team can replace his minutes. However this trend of buying rentals, letting UFAs walk for free and getting nowhere in the playoffs is not sustainable and will result in a limited prospect pool in the future

I am not sure what they need to replace him with. He isn't a key pk guy and he doesn't drive the pp at all. No physical game to speak of. Muzzin outscores him pp60 and does Mo get tougher matchups than Jake? He is marginally the Leafs #1D but he isn't a top 10 D in the league unless he returns to his 2018 scoring. Without the big offensive contribution his main value is apparently at even strength and we know most of the time he isn't a defensive rock.

Lets forget about his status as a "number 1" or what he did offensively two years ago. Is it possible to acquire a LD who is a good as Rielly was at even strength last season? I think there are dozens of guys who check that box. They might not have a 70pt season on their resume or be beautiful skaters but he was 38th and 32nd in pp60 for D the last two years and there are a ton of guys that can get close to that who won't cost close to $6M.

Without the cap pressure another long term deal would add and the certainty he would want a no move it wouldn't be a big deal but I don't see him as being measurably better than the two $5M guys they have and I think they could replace his even strength effectiveness with a much better value deal. It isn't Mo bashing to acknowledge what limited cap space has meant to their roster options and it isn't unreasonable to suggest there are teams that have a 5g LD they would move who could be an effective ES player on the Leafs.

 

[Kurtz]

I don't think they knew they were going to be poor Lucic's last season or the season after, they were only a couple seasons removed from a cup I believe. No reason to believe anything was wrong. Most teams hold on for dear life to keep together a core that has had success.

St.Louis tried to re-sign Shattenkirk repeatedly but he wanted to go to the Rangers. In our case, specifically with Morgan Rielly, we just might be doing this knowing full well we don't have the cap to pull it off.

Blues had a ton of faith that Parayko was going to be able to take the mantle. Maybe if Sandin shows in camp that he's able to take some of Rielly's responsibilities they get comfortable with the idea of a trade later in the season.

“Lucic was costing the Bruins $6 million per season and coming off an 18-year-goal year when Sweeney decided the odds were against Lucic improving in the seasons ahead,” wrote CBS Boston’s Matt Kalman in 2017. “Maybe Lucic’s presence would’ve been the difference in the Bruins making rather than missing the playoffs in 2015, but Sweeney & Co. knew it was time for a reboot and they weren’t really going to contend that season. They needed to get their act together to contend in 2018 and beyond.”

https://thehockeywriters.com/milan-lucic-trade-la-kings-revisited/


Note also that the team with actual cup aspirations that year, the Kings (a rather successful franchise) had no qualms about giving up a whole bunch of future assets for a rental...

 

[Ziggdiezan]

What is "etc."? Because you just named the only other rental player we've gotten under this management prior to this year - Clifford (50% retained). And no, we didn't pay a 3rd + Trevor Moore for him. You seem to forget that we obtained Campbell in that deal, who is the more significant player and not a rental. For the record, we also picked up a free 5th that deadline. We've spent pretty much nothing on rentals prior to this year.

This year, in a weak draft year made weaker by Covid, as a division leader, we spent some draft picks to improve the team. Which is what any other team in our position would do.

We're not selling UFAs, because we're in a competitive phase, not a rebuilding phase. My statement was referring to the fact that nobody seems to include the players that are brought in through UFA, which is more than what we've lost. We've been able to improve the team despite all of these players supposedly leaving. Dubas must be doing a pretty great job.

Our prospect pool is healthy, and in the best shape it's been in since the rebuild era.

We have a great team, and a legitimate chance at the cup. This is when you go for it. This is not when you make your team worse to accumulate futures.

We paid 2 3rds for that with a condition one of the 3rds become a 2nd if the leafs resign Clifford so not too far off. As I said before I'm not talking just about this current management. I know you see everything through the Dubas vs Lou lens but I never said that it was just the current management.

I think with less scouting and certainty late 1st rounders would be worth more this past draft than a normal draft. Higher probability a better player will drop due to less knowledge of players. I dont know if all teams with 0 playoff success would pay a 1st + a ton of other picks for a old player on a down year but I digress.

Just because you got Brodie/JT through UFA doesn't discredit all the draft capital spent on rental or lost as UFAs walk for free. I have said I really really liked the Brodie signing. Great grab by Dubas at a good AAV too. Have we actually improved the team though? Maybe on paper but they still haven't done shit in the post season which is all that matters. We also haven't seen the repercussions of so many traded picks and lost picks yet that will happen in a couple years.

I wouldn't say we have a legitimate chance at a cup, lost 2 playoffs in a row in the first round to far worse teams. I would say they are cup contenders after they prove they aren't playoff choke artists like we have seen the entire career of the core.

Edit: I can tell by the way you speak that you think I'm an anti-Dubas person. I am not. I think he has done some good things and if he has the balls to trade one of the big 3 if there is another playoff disappointment i am fine with him staying. However I don't think he is okay with making that trade and I think he will go down with the ship if that happens

 

[Dekes For Days]

Bruins couldn't agree on a contract with Lucic, traded him in the off-season for a 1st, Jones, Collin Miller. Flipped Martin Jones for an additional 1st.

They traded Lucic after missing the playoffs and entering a retool. Lucic was also coming off a down year, and they got offered a ridiculous overpayment.

Blues traded Shattenkirk prior to the trade deadline

St Louis traded Shattenkirk when they were falling out of the playoffs and on a 3 game losing streak, and it was largely because Parayko had surpassed him on the right side.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I am not sure what they need to replace him with. He isn't a key pk guy and he doesn't drive the pp at all. No physical game to speak of. Muzzin outscores him pp60 and does Mo get tougher matchups than Jake? He is marginally the Leafs #1D but he isn't a top 10 D in the league unless he returns to his 2018 scoring. Without the big offensive contribution his main value is apparently at even strength and we know most of the time he isn't a defensive rock.

Lets forget about his status as a "number 1" or what he did offensively two years ago. Is it possible to acquire a LD who is a good as Rielly was at even strength last season? I think there are dozens of guys who check that box. They might not have a 70pt season on their resume or be beautiful skaters but he was 38th and 32nd in pp60 for D the last two years and there are a ton of guys that can get close to that who won't cost close to $6M.

Without the cap pressure another long term deal would add and the certainty he would want a no move it wouldn't be a big deal but I don't see him as being measurably better than the two $5M guys they have and I think they could replace his even strength effectiveness with a much better value deal. It isn't Mo bashing to acknowledge what limited cap space has meant to their roster options and it isn't unreasonable to suggest there are teams that have a 5g LD they would move who could be an effective ES player on the Leafs.

He plays an insane amount of minutes 5 on 5 often getting higher QoC. I dont see anyone being able to replace that on the team or via a trade without a massive cost. Last year was the first year he actually had a good partner (who wasn't 37) too. He is an excellent transition player and once him and Brodie work it out he will start to do those pinches more that saw him score 20 goals a few seasons ago.

A lot of those players didn't play close to the amount of minutes he played nor the QoC. Those are huge factors when your normalizing by ice time like for pp60.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We paid 2 3rds for that with a condition one of the 3rds become a 2nd if the leafs resign Clifford so not too far off.

You left out a significant part of the return, that wasn't a rental. We've barely spent anything on rentals prior to this year.

As I said before I'm not talking just about this current management.

What different management did half a decade ago really has no relevance to the proper way to approach the deadline/pending UFAs right now.

I think with less scouting and certainty late 1st rounders would be worth more this past draft than a normal draft.

It makes it even more of a crapshoot. We're also talking about a draft that was already weak, and now these prospects have lost a key development year.

Just because you got Brodie/JT through UFA doesn't discredit all the draft capital spent on rental or lost as UFAs walk for free.

The point is there are gains and losses from UFA, not just losses. We've added more than Tavares and Brodie, but those two players are better than anybody we've lost in UFA.

Have we actually improved the team though?

Yes, we quite obviously have. We are now a top offensive and defensive team, and have two solid goalies. All this drama about departing players, and we've improved the team. All this drama about departing picks, and we've improved the pipeline.

I wouldn't say we have a legitimate chance at a cup

We very clearly do. We have a great team. You put way too much emphasis on past playoff outcomes with no context.

 

[shortfuze]

Smart teams trade away their pending UFA the minute they sense there’s a chance the player will walk. The fact that you can try to justify keeping Rielly without a contract really shows how out of absolute touch you are with reality. Only dumb teams like this one that aren’t close to even competing for the cup would still keep that arrogant “all in” approach and 9/10 is the absolute wrong one. Just stop it Zeke.

hindsight 20/20 is nice isnt it. zeke is right though. majority of teams always keep their players.

why do you even bother watching the leafs if all you are going to do is call the GM names and put the team down cause you dont like what they are doing.

 

[WTFMAN99]

“Lucic was costing the Bruins $6 million per season and coming off an 18-year-goal year when Sweeney decided the odds were against Lucic improving in the seasons ahead,” wrote CBS Boston’s Matt Kalman in 2017. “Maybe Lucic’s presence would’ve been the difference in the Bruins making rather than missing the playoffs in 2015, but Sweeney & Co. knew it was time for a reboot and they weren’t really going to contend that season. They needed to get their act together to contend in 2018 and beyond.”

https://thehockeywriters.com/milan-lucic-trade-la-kings-revisited/


Note also that the team with actual cup aspirations that year, the Kings (a rather successful franchise) had no qualms about giving up a whole bunch of future assets for a rental...

They traded Lucic after missing the playoffs and entering a retool. Lucic was also coming off a down year, and they got offered a ridiculous overpayment.

St Louis traded Shattenkirk when they were falling out of the playoffs and on a 3 game losing streak, and it was largely because Parayko had surpassed him on the right side.

Shattenkirk actually landed St.Louis the 1st round pick which went into getting Brayden Schenn...a big part of the cup win. I also forgot about them trading Paul Stastny being a couple points out of a playoff spot. Blues won a cup like a year later.

I don't think Boston capitalized as well as they could have on the Lucic assets, although they've kinda squandered assets before like Seguin. The 16-17 Bruins that made the playoffs really added Carlo and in the playoffs McAvoy, a lot of the core from the years where they didn't make the playoffs were still in place. I know Matt Kalman probably has more weight than me...even though it's CBS

Just saying if we bucked the trend previously or even at some point this season, nothing wrong with collecting some currency to fill the needs if it appears 100% clear we can't keep Rielly.

 

[Dekes For Days]

nothing wrong with collecting some currency to fill the needs if it appears 100% clear we can't keep Rielly.

There kind of is something wrong with it if it involves making the team worse in a competitive year though. We're not in the same situation as Boston/St Louis when Lucic/Shatternkirk were traded.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Can you name a few examples of teams with cup aspirations trading away important players at the deadline for picks?

But with the Leafs, wasn’t it a double whammy? We traded picks for rentals, plus we kept our own rentals. It wouldn’t have been quite so bad if we hadn’t made the trades for rentals, and just gone into the playoffs with the team as it was. I blame that on management, who abandoned the rebuild too soon because they believed the team was ready to challenge for the Cup.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

You left out a significant part of the return, that wasn't a rental. We've barely spent anything on rentals prior to this year.

What different management did half a decade ago really has no relevance to the proper way to approach the deadline/pending UFAs right now.

It makes it even more of a crapshoot. We're also talking about a draft that was already weak, and now these prospects have lost a key development year.

The point is there are gains and losses from UFA, not just losses. We've added more than Tavares and Brodie, but those two players are better than anybody we've lost in UFA.

Yes, we quite obviously have. We are now a top offensive and defensive team, and have two solid goalies. All this drama about departing players, and we've improved the team. All this drama about departing picks, and we've improved the pipeline.

We very clearly do. We have a great team. You put way too much emphasis on past playoff outcomes with no context.

I left out the 3rd it cost to grab Campbell. Clifford was definitely seen as the bigger ticket item at the time of the trade.

It does if there is a trend as I have pointed out (I.e. tons of draft capital traded or wasted by letting UFA walk and 0 playoff success going on like 5 years straight?)

No point in talking about the previous draft. Doesn't change anything.

Yes Brodie/JT are better than any walking UFAs (expect if Rielly does walk). However that doesn't negate all the assets who walked for free. Both could have happened, I.e. gotten assets for some of the UFAs while also getting JT/Brodie.

The implications of trading all those picks or not having the extra picks won't be felt for a few years. I'm not as sold on the goalies but we will see how they do. I am hopeful. I would say it is pretty clear that the leafs depth scoring has gotten worse on paper the last few years due to ELC ending/flat cap.

What context is needed? The leafs have lost 5 first rounds in a row against increasingly worse teams. How doesnt that worry you? What happens in the next few years when Matthews, Nylander, Sandin, Lily etc contracts are up and now Matthews has rocket(s) on his resume rather than pacing for almost the most goals? The cap will get even tighter...

 

[Captain Crunch]

There kind of is something wrong with it if it involves making the team worse in a competitive year though. We're not in the same situation as Boston/St Louis when Lucic/Shatternkirk were traded.

Well let’s hope that the 6th time conquers. It sure as Hell hasn’t the previous 5 years.

 

[Captain Crunch]

We are now a top offensive and defensive team, and have two solid goalies.

It’s puzzling that this top offensive team has shit the bed in two straight 1st round exits. As for the goalies, I like both of them, but it remains to be seen if Campbell can remain healthy over a full 82 game schedule.