Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LIV

[Bazeek]

I think the idea of Miller being dealt with retention is an invention of these boards. VAN has massive cap problems, and the new group there have been quoted as saying they recognize this and are going to do something about it.

You're probably right, especially if they're looking at making very destabilizing moves. Vancouver probably doesn't have to worry as much about killing gate revenue as some teams, but after two seasons of pandemic stuff I can't imagine any teams are keen on multi-year salary retention. Especially on a player that's already on a bargain deal.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Just a random thought. Getting Miller means next season Rossi would would either be a wing in the NHL or in the still in the AHL (used as a callup). Sturm walks as a UFA.

Hartman, JEE, Miller, Freddy G as the centers going into next season.

I tend to doubt the Wild are pencling Hartman in as our 1C long term. He wouldn't be the first or last to go gangbusters one season and fall off the next. Or even if he can keep up the scoring, maybe he does it as RW on the Boldy-JTM-Hartman line. Or replaces Greenway on the GREEF line.

There are plenty of options that don't involve Rossi being in the AHL.

 

[57special]

You're probably right, especially if they're looking at making very destabilizing moves. Vancouver probably doesn't have to worry as much about killing gate revenue as some teams, but after two seasons of pandemic stuff I can't imagine any teams are keen on multi-year salary retention. Especially on a player that's already on a bargain deal.

It's not so much the $$, but the cap space that is the issue in VAN. A team like ARI is the opposite.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Wasn't it rumored around the ED that Vancouver had interest in Bjugstadt? Or am I making this up?

*I am not suggesting he moves the needle, simple curiosity

 

[Bazeek]

It's not so much the $$, but the cap space that is the issue in VAN. A team like ARI is the opposite.

I guess that'd depend on what all they're looking to do next year. If they're trying to make room for next year (maybe to extend Boeser?) then the cap is a concern.

I assume most of their cap problems are longer term though, like being tied to Myers for 3 more years and OEL for 6. Those are the contracts that are going to make extensions really difficult.

Wasn't it rumored around the ED that Vancouver had interest in Bjugstadt? Or am I making this up?

*I am not suggesting he moves the needle, simple curiosity

I think one of the Vancouver beat guys speculated about it. But that was under Benning.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Wasn't it rumored around the ED that Vancouver had interest in Bjugstadt? Or am I making this up?

*I am not suggesting he moves the needle, simple curiosity

There was a rumor but as Bazeek said it was under the old regime.

 

[Spurgeon]

Trading a 1st + Lambos + Greenway seems pretty crazy to me for a year and a half of a guy we’re not going to be able to re-sign.

We have mediocre advanced analytics. This team does not have the depth at any position to suggest that they can make a deep playoff run. We may have won games without Spurgeon and Brodin, but an injury to either of them in the playoffs isn’t going to be an easy thing to overcome. Same thing goes for any of Fiala, Zucc, Kap, or Boldy.

I just can’t wrap my mind around losing the equivalence of 3 1st round picks when this team is going to be in cap hell for 3 seasons. Lambos is our best LD prospect, we may have a lot of LDs in our prospect pool, but there are no guarantees that any of them pan out. Lambos has the most potential and we don’t have any current long-term NHL LDs on this team other than Brodin.

 

[Bazeek]

Trading a 1st + Lambos + Greenway seems pretty crazy to me for a year and a half of a guy we’re not going to be able to re-sign.

We have mediocre advanced analytics. This team does not have the depth at any position to suggest that they can make a deep playoff run. We may have won games without Spurgeon and Brodin, but an injury to either of them in the playoffs isn’t going to be an easy thing to overcome. Same thing goes for any of Fiala, Zucc, Kap, or Boldy.

I just can’t wrap my mind around losing the equivalence of 3 1st round picks when this team is going to be in cap hell for 3 seasons. Lambos is our best LD prospect, we may have a lot of LDs in our prospect pool, but there are no guarantees that any of them pan out. Lambos has the most potential and we don’t have any current long-term NHL LDs on this team other than Brodin.

Greenway on top of the 1st and Lambos seems excessive.

But more broadly I think standing pat when you're getting career years from multiple players would be hard to defend. I'm not totally sold on Miller specifically being the best route, but whatever the options and prices end up being I think it's worth spending the 2022 1st and a prospect on a real center upgrade.

If prices get out of hand or options dry up due to movement clauses it's easier for me to justify sticking to what we've got, or going after a more modest addition.

 

[Spurgeon]

Greenway on top of the 1st and Lambos seems excessive.

But more broadly I think standing pat when you're getting career years from multiple players would be hard to defend. I'm not totally sold on Miller specifically being the best route, but whatever the options and prices end up being I think it's worth spending the 2022 1st and a prospect on a real center upgrade.

If prices get out of hand or options dry up due to movement clauses it's easier for me to justify sticking to what we've got, or going after a more modest addition.

The problem with Miller is that 2nd year. If he’s not retained at 50%, then it pretty much guarantees that Fiala, Zucc, or Dumba are gone next season. I suppose you can make the argument that we’ll get assets back in a trade for them to offset their loss, but I really don’t want to lose any portion of this current roster if we don’t need to.

Losing a late 1st is somewhat acceptable, but I still dislike it. Rentals have never worked for this team & it always seems to throw chemistry off in some way.

 

[GuerinUp]

The problem with Miller is that 2nd year. If he’s not retained at 50%, then it pretty much guarantees that Fiala, Zucc, or Dumba are gone next season. I suppose you can make the argument that we’ll get assets back in a trade for them to offset their loss, but I really don’t want to lose any portion of this current roster if we don’t need to.

Losing a late 1st is somewhat acceptable, but I still dislike it. Rentals have never worked for this team & it always seems to throw chemistry off in some way.

i mean, weve never acquired a great player at the deadline either. hanzal was OKAY... the rest of the acquisitions have been mediocre grinders for the most part.

 

[Bazeek]

The problem with Miller is that 2nd year. If he’s not retained at 50%, then it pretty much guarantees that Fiala, Zucc, or Dumba are gone next season. I suppose you can make the argument that we’ll get assets back in a trade for them to offset their loss, but I really don’t want to lose any portion of this current roster if we don’t need to.

Losing a late 1st is somewhat acceptable, but I still dislike it. Rentals have never worked for this team & it always seems to throw chemistry off in some way.

The 2nd year on Miller's deal is what has me feeling 50/50 about it, too. I don't think having him on the team next year at his cap hit is a problem, but I also don't think it's a priority. So does paying the higher price that comes with that extra term really make sense? It'll really depend on what the market actually looks like.

I think you worry about who stays and who goes over the summer, though. The important thing is that they'd have multiple players with medium-large cap hits and real trade value, so it's not like they'd be boxing themselves in. Hard decisions are coming on those guys regardless of any deadline additions.

 

[Prior]

Those thinking Fiala is here beyond this year and trying to talk around fitting him into future plans are not seeing it clearly. He’s gone, move on, and get it out of your heads.

Want to know why he is gone, watch Boldy. He needs a contract after next year and whatever you think it was going to cost you have miscalculated.

So ya, it’s time to get serious about this roster this year. Because good players are going to go. And Fiala won’t be the last.

 

[Spurgeon]

i mean, weve never acquired a great player at the deadline either. hanzal was OKAY... the rest of the acquisitions have been mediocre grinders for the most part.

Moulson, Pominville, Hanzal

2 1sts & 5 2nds

I’m just tired of rentals. Teams win cups by being able to afford to spend money on their high-end players and supplementing their roster with cheap contributing ELCs. I want this team to have a stacked prospect pool all the time.

 

[BagHead]

This JT Miller talk is starting to remind me of the Pominville trade. I was in favor of that trade, but the Wild also had the cap to re-sign him and not lose players in the next years. I'd be in favor of the Miller trade if it weren't for the cap crunch, but I don't see how it makes the team better long-term. Seems like an extremely short-term payoff, and if they're playing that short of a game, with that many assets given up, the payoff has to be huge. Cup huge.

 

[Spurgeon]

Those thinking Fiala is here beyond this year and trying to talk around fitting him into future plans are not seeing it clearly. He’s gone, move on, and get it out of your heads.

Want to know why he is gone, watch Boldy. He needs a contract after next year and whatever you think it was going to cost you have miscalculated.

So ya, it’s time to get serious about this roster this year. Because good players are going to go. And Fiala won’t be the last.

I’ve already crunched the numbers on this and Fiala definitely can stick around past a Boldy extension fairly easily. Boldy’s extension is due when Dumba’s contract is up. Unless you think Boldy is getting some ridiculous amount.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The problem with Miller is that 2nd year. If he’s not retained at 50%, then it pretty much guarantees that Fiala, Zucc, or Dumba are gone next season. I suppose you can make the argument that we’ll get assets back in a trade for them to offset their loss, but I really don’t want to lose any portion of this current roster if we don’t need to.

Losing a late 1st is somewhat acceptable, but I still dislike it. Rentals have never worked for this team & it always seems to throw chemistry off in some way.

Or Miller is.

 

[GuerinUp]

Moulson, Pominville, Hanzal

2 1sts & 5 2nds

I’m just tired of rentals. Teams win cups by being able to afford to spend money on their high-end players and supplementing their roster with cheap contributing ELCs. I want this team to have a stacked prospect pool all the time.

forgot about the pominville trade. didnt like that one, not necessarily because of the player, but the overpayment.... and moulson yuck... wouldve never traded for him.

 

[Spurgeon]

Or Miller is.

Haven’t considered that possibility. That’s actually a good point, although I don’t know how many teams have done successive trades like that.

 

[AKL]

This JT Miller talk is starting to remind me of the Pominville trade. I was in favor of that trade, but the Wild also had the cap to re-sign him and not lose players in the next years. I'd be in favor of the Miller trade if it weren't for the cap crunch, but I don't see how it makes the team better long-term. Seems like an extremely short-term payoff, and if they're playing that short of a game, with that many assets given up, the payoff has to be huge. Cup huge.

Yeah I always come back to the diminishing returns aspect of how much it'll actually improve the team this year. Our offense is fine, it's not a problem, we're 3rd in the league in goals scored per game.

Wins against Chicago and Montreal recently don't change the fact that an overwhelming percentage of wins have come against teams that won't be in the playoffs this spring, and a disproportionate percentage of losses have come against the teams that many consider the true contenders- Vegas, Colorado, St. Louis, Florida, Tampa. We do an excellent job of beating the teams we're supposed to beat, we do a good job of beating teams that we're on par with, and we do an awful job of beating the teams that are better than us.

So I don't see how trying to improve the offense via JT Miller makes us a true contender.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

As much as I hate to say it, I still think Fiala is the one that goes this summer. I think that Guerin likes the identity of the GREEF line; the Kaprizov/Zuccarello connection is a legit thing; and Dumba being given an "A" last summer has cemented his spot going forward (unless he starts going after Jones-like money).

Fiala goes at the draft and Greenway comes back for $3-$4 million per year.

So I'm going to enjoy the hell out of however many Fiala games we have left.

Edit:

Kaprizov - Hartman - Zuccarello
Greenway (3.5) - Eriksson Ek - Foligno
Boldy (.9) - Rossi (.9) - Veteran FA (3.5)
Duhaime - Sturm (1.2) - Gaudreau
13th F (.75)

Brodin - Dumba
Kulikov - Spurgeon
Merill - Addison
7th D (.75)

Talbot
Kahkonen (3.5)

$200k in cap space.

 

[Prior]

I’ve already crunched the numbers on this and Fiala definitely can stick around past a Boldy extension fairly easily. Boldy’s extension is due when Dumba’s contract is up. Unless you think Boldy is getting some ridiculous amount.

Pretty easily? Not happening. Especially not with how both Fiala and Boldy are trending even as they drag along an anchor. Fiala is not giving this team any sweetheart deal and Boldy has been pacing as a PPG player in pro hockey. He’s not going to be cheap.

 

[Bazeek]

Moulson, Pominville, Hanzal

2 1sts & 5 2nds

I’m just tired of rentals. Teams win cups by being able to afford to spend money on their high-end players and supplementing their roster with cheap contributing ELCs. I want this team to have a stacked prospect pool all the time.

I don't think giving up a 1st + Prospect is likely to burn us much long term. They're going to have to trade players this summer and at least one of those trades is likely to net a 2022 or 2023 1st. Is having 3 top-32 picks in the next two drafts instead of 2 really going to impact the pool all that much?

Whether or not to consider Lambos a trade chip is the only big question for me, and that really comes down to what the team thinks he turns into. If they see a future top-pairing LD I'd have a hard time trading him. But if they see him closer to O'Rourke, Hunt and Peart? One or two of those guys is going to have to get traded eventually anyway.

The rest of the (non-Boldy, -Rossi, -Wallstedt) prospects in the pool are good but not irreplaceable. By the time we come out of the dead cap years there should be plenty of quality in there.

 

[MK9]

I'm leaning more and more towards hoping they can just do a 2nd or maybe even later for Stastny. Not giving up a ton and I think he could see a bit of a resurgence between Boldy/Fiala even at 36. As it goes, risk vs reward, just seems to be the best option. I'd love Miller, but I think Stastny ticks enough boxes for what the Wild need for the playoffs. Clearly not the same caliber of player, but what they'd have to pay for Miller, I don't see the risk vs reward being worth a dent in the longer term plan. AND he'd be a pretty big upgrade over Gadreau. I'd rather have them continue to build up the pool and have better success for longer.

 

[AKL]

I'm leaning more and more towards hoping they can just do a 2nd or maybe even later for Stastny. Not giving up a ton and I think he could see a bit of a resurgence between Boldy/Fiala even at 36. As it goes, risk vs reward, just seems to be the best option. I'd love Miller, but I Stastny ticks enough boxes for what the Wild need for the playoffs. Clearly not the same caliber of player, but what they'd have to pay for Miller, I don't see the risk vs reward being worth a dent in the longer term plan. I'd rather have them continue to build up the pool and have better success for longer.

Yeah, doesn't make any sense to trade something like a 1st+Lambos for one playoff push. That's a pretty egregious misuse of assets. A 2nd for Stastny makes a lot more sense if the goal is to just upgrade Gaudreau for one run.

 

[Spurgeon]

Pretty easily? Not happening. Especially not with how both Fiala and Boldy are trending even as they drag along an anchor. Fiala is not giving this team any sweetheart deal and Boldy has been pacing as a PPG player in pro hockey. He’s not going to be cheap.

What do you think Boldy is going to get?