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Trade and Free Agency - 2024-25

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Dr Jan Itor said:
I can't really demonize it unless somebody can show that a bigger contract is more reasonable/defensible.
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I think Wyatt Johnston is the upper bounds of Rossi's range, and he got 5x8.4M. I think that alone is enough to say that sticking to 6.5M isn't exactly the most reasonable thing to do, and probably isn't super defensible. Lafreniere got 7x7.4M, as a winger. Jarvis, also a winger, got 8x7.4M.

I think those contracts also set the bounds and the market for what Rossi can and should get, beyond just looking at Byfield, who in my own opinion should be getting less than Rossi adjusted for inflation.

For whatever it's worth, I don't really know how to make a formula off these four players. Johnston is a center who had a better year than Rossi last season, but was having a worse year this season until a month or so ago. Lafreniere is a winger but statistically between 2022-23 and 2023-24 had pretty similar production to Rossi in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Jarvis didn't get any more money for the extra year despite being better than Lafreniere.

All of these guys have generally had better opportunities than Rossi has so far, better linemates, better team offenses, that kinda stuff, but then when Rossi had the better linemate in Kaprizov, he was tracking better than all of their bests.

All that is to say, I think Rossi's camp has a strong case for 7.5-8M, even on a 5 year deal, given his production with Kaprizov and his position. What if we split the difference between Byfield and Johnston and called it 5x7.5? That should work for both sides, and 7.5 is probably pretty close to Boldy's inflation adjusted number.
 
AKL said:
I think Wyatt Johnston is the upper bounds of Rossi's range, and he got 5x8.4M. I think that alone is enough to say that sticking to 6.5M isn't exactly the most reasonable thing to do, and probably isn't super defensible. Lafreniere got 7x7.4M, as a winger. Jarvis, also a winger, got 8x7.4M.

I think those contracts also set the bounds and the market for what Rossi can and should get, beyond just looking at Byfield, who in my own opinion should be getting less than Rossi adjusted for inflation.

For whatever it's worth, I don't really know how to make a formula off these four players. Johnston is a center who had a better year than Rossi last season, but was having a worse year this season until a month or so ago. Lafreniere is a winger but statistically between 2022-23 and 2023-24 had pretty similar production to Rossi in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Jarvis didn't get any more money for the extra year despite being better than Lafreniere.

All of these guys have generally had better opportunities than Rossi has so far, better linemates, better team offenses, that kinda stuff, but then when Rossi had the better linemate in Kaprizov, he was tracking better than all of their bests.

All that is to say, I think Rossi's camp has a strong case for 7.5-8M, even on a 5 year deal, given his production with Kaprizov and his position. What if we split the difference between Byfield and Johnston and called it 5x7.5? That should work for both sides, and 7.5 is probably pretty close to Boldy's inflation adjusted number.
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Boldy's is $8.006 million. Calculated it yesterday, so it's right on my display still.

Just posting that up for general knowledge, not trying to make a point.
 
BagHead said:
Boldy's is $8.006 million. Calculated it yesterday, so it's right on my display still.

Just posting that up for general knowledge, not trying to make a point.
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So I was wrong, but in the opposite direction than I thought. If Boldy's inflation adjusted number is 8, then 7.5 for Rossi seems eminently fair to me, all things considered.
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
Not to sound like a management stooge, but part of the benefit of RFA status is that management kind of doesn't need to compromise. Rossi's options are to be offer-sheeted or not play, and that's kind of it. Obviously that is dependent on management having a reasonable and defensible position for their side, and there's value in many cases about maintaining positive relationships with players that you feel are going to be big parts of the team going forward, so that might cause more flexibility in other situations.

If Guerin is sitting there and saying, "look, you know what, long-term isn't on the table right now, here are the options that we're comfortable with":

5 x $6.5M
3 x $5.5M
2 x $5.0M

And all of those options can be defended using the current market environment, recently signed contract comparables, etc., then it just kind of is what it is and it's up to Rossi's agent to go find offersheets for more if they'd like (if that's how it works, not sure).
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Doesn't Rossi fall into the "no arbitration, no offer sheet" category coming off his ELC?
 
AKL said:
I think Wyatt Johnston is the upper bounds of Rossi's range, and he got 5x8.4M. I think that alone is enough to say that sticking to 6.5M isn't exactly the most reasonable thing to do, and probably isn't super defensible. Lafreniere got 7x7.4M, as a winger. Jarvis, also a winger, got 8x7.4M.
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I'm not with you there on Johnston. I think he's notably better. Or maybe I just put more value on him doing what he's doing at 19-21 vs. Rossi's 22-23.

I have Rossi at $2M less than Johnston.

Lafreniere's deal is exactly what I'd have for 7 years for Rossi. Jarvis had the weird deferment stuff, and also I think has done more to earn thus far.
 
AKL said:
If that were true, they should start playing him there. A center depth of Boldy-Rossi-Eriksson Ek would be scary if we could ever find more than one good winger to play with them.
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Lack of scoring wingers is a real problem for this team. That and centers that can win a faceoff.
 
DigitalBoldy said:
Boldy is a better player than Rossi. Probably a better center too.
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Boldy is a better forward than Rossi, there is no evidence that suggests he is a better center. That they haven't been playing him at center for the last 4 years suggests that maybe he's not a great center, or is at least much better at wing. I'm not sure why you're quoting me saying what Boldy's inflation adjusted cap hit is, though. If you're trying to argue with me that Boldy is better, you're arguing that to someone who already stated it last night.
 
Rossi is about 30th in the NHL among Centers in points. NHL has him listed as tied for 36th, but they list players such as Reinhart, Necas, Jarvis, Guentzel, Protas, Teravainen as Centers, when they play wing.

So, his point production suggests he is already a low #1C/high end #2. His FO's are around 48%- not great, but much better than some others listed above him. We have been screaming for top 6 C's forever, and now that we have a legit young one, we want trade him away? WTF? I get that he isn't the next Matthews, or even Point, but trading away Rossi because he doesn't measure up to them seems wrong headed.

Plenty of time to trade him away when we get said the mythical #1C that we have never yet had, according to some.
 
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57special said:
Rossi is about 30th in the NHL among Centers in points. NHL has him listed as tied for 36th, but they list players such as Reinhart, Necas, Jarvis, Guentzel, Protas, Teravainen as Centers, when they play wing.

So, his point production suggests he is already a low #1C/high end #2. His FO's are around 48%- not great, but much better than some others listed above him. We have been screaming for top 6 C's forever, and now that we have a legit young one, we want trade him away? WTF? I get that he isn't the next Matthews, or even Point, but trading away Rossi because he doesn't measure up to them seems wrong headed.

Plenty of time to trade him away when we get said the mythical #1C that we have never yet had, according to some.
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I would venture to guess those stats are a little inflated to when he was playing with Kaprisov.
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
Statistically this year there isn't much, though it probably looks better.
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1743032392840.png


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I didn't know the stats so I looked.
 
Open question: if this was our opening 2025-26 lineup, how would you feel?

Kaprizov - Pettersson - Zuccarello
Boldy - Yurov - Boeser
Ohgren - Eriksson Ek - Hartman
Foligno - Gaudreau - Trenin

Middleton - Faber
Brodin - Jiricek
Buium - Bogosian

No picks or prospects lost or gained.
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
Open question: if this was our opening 2025-26 lineup, how would you feel?

Kaprizov - Pettersson - Zuccarello
Boldy - Yurov - Boeser
Ohgren - Eriksson Ek - Hartman
Foligno - Gaudreau - Trenin

Middleton - Faber
Brodin - Jiricek
Buium - Bogosian

No picks or prospects lost or gained.
Click to expand...

So you're going all offense no defense with the top-6?

The PP should be good on paper, the PK is going to be terrible again.
 
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