Trade and Free Agency - 2024-25

[BagHead]

$7M per year.

Then you're effectively paying him 12.5% less than Boldy relative to the cap. If that's where you value him, that's where you value him. I don't even think it's way too low, though I do think it would be a slight discount. Today's equivalent to the Boldy deal would be ~$8 million. I'd be perfectly fine with something in between these two numbers, I don't think I'd want to exceed $8 million, though, that would be a bit of an overpay.

I will say this though, about overpaying. Within reason, you can get away with overpaying for quality and still come out of it ok. You can't get away with overpaying for shit.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

I expect Rossi to improve over the next several years, the same way Eriksson Ek has. You can't teach drive and work ethic, and those are Rossi's strongest traits. The rest of it can be taught or improved.

For the record, I have never been high on Cozens going back to the draft, and that season was an aberration by the entire Sabres offense, not just him.

I would also point out that 45-50 points seems excessively pessimistic. He had 46 points in the first 52 games of the season, and since then has had 8 points in 19 games. 8 in 19 is bad, but it's been exacerbated by the current 3 in 11 stretch he's in. And I would point out that there was one point this season where your golden boy Brady Tkachuk had 2 points in 14 games.

Can they teach Rossi to be Eriksson Ek's size next?

Rossi has a long way to go before he reaches Eriksson Ek's level of physicality resistance, endurance levels, speed, and punchable face.

Rossi's 5v5 production is trending to be the exact same as his 40 point rookie year and his shots taken have dramatically fallen. Can you give me more reason for optimism other than Rossi works hard?

I tell you what, when Rossi scores 30+ for 4 straight years I will be way more willing to excuse a 2 pts in 14 gp stretch. People say that we need goal scorers and shoot first players, right? Look at Tkachuk's shot totals compared to Rossi. If Rossi shot the puck as much as Tkachuk did and maintained his high shooting percentage (unlikely), he would have 52 goals in 68 games right now. That's why I see Rossi due for a regression. His shooting percentage is really high and his shot totals are really low. Prime for a regression.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Then you're effectively paying him 12.5% less than Boldy relative to the cap. If that's where you value him, that's where you value him. I don't even think it's way too low, though I do think it would be a slight discount. Today's equivalent to the Boldy deal would be ~$8 million. I'd be perfectly fine with something in between these two numbers, I don't think I'd want to exceed $8 million, though, that would be a bit of an overpay.

I will say this though, about overpaying. Within reason, you can get away with overpaying for quality and still come out of it ok. You can't get away with overpaying for shit.

I'm paying him the exact same as Boldy because that is what I think he is worth. It has nothing to do with comparing him to Boldy the player. Boldy is flat out a better player offensively and defensively. Rossi and Boldy are not equivalent players. Whatever thinking you need to do to make Rossi = $7M is your own prerogative. I do not see Rossi having higher than a $7M AAV value.

And why should Rossi get a bump in AAV for being center? He is nothing more than average defensively and his faceoffs are below average. Usually you increase pay for things people are good at...

I'm also starting to think Guerin is correct in letting it slide to the offseason. Let Rossi continue his usual second half slide and the team loses in the playoffs with struggles scoring. Use that as a negotiating tactic.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

A Holloway offer sheet of $2.29M x 2 years (3rd round pick comp) was really a missed opportunity by Guerin last offseason.

 

[Death of Rats]

Can they teach Rossi to be Eriksson Ek's size next?

Rossi has a long way to go before he reaches Eriksson Ek's level of physicality resistance, endurance levels, speed, and punchable face.

Rossi's 5v5 production is trending to be the exact same as his 40 point rookie year and his shots taken have dramatically fallen. Can you give me more reason for optimism other than Rossi works hard?

I tell you what, when Rossi scores 30+ for 4 straight years I will be way more willing to excuse a 2 pts in 14 gp stretch. People say that we need goal scorers and shoot first players, right? Look at Tkachuk's shot totals compared to Rossi. If Rossi shot the puck as much as Tkachuk did and maintained his high shooting percentage (unlikely), he would have 52 goals in 68 games right now. That's why I see Rossi due for a regression. His shooting percentage is really high and his shot totals are really low. Prime for a regression.

Exactly .04 km/h to catch Ek.
Rossi 36.70 NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters
Ek 36.74 NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

Also, Rossi already has as many full seasons as Ek. Ek has so far dressed up for all games in the shortened 20-21 season.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Exactly .04 km/h to catch Ek.
Rossi 36.70 NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters
Ek 36.74 NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

Also, Rossi already has as many full seasons as Ek. Ek has so far dressed up for all games in the shortened 20-21 season.

What I’m seeing is that even an injured Eriksson Ek is faster than Rossi.

 

[north21]

I think they should be near equal. Boldy is the the better player IMO, but Rossi is a center. At the time of signing, both had/have room to grow still, as players. I don't think they're far off from each other, honestly.

The same, they are close.

 

[Wasted Talent]

Exactly .04 km/h to catch Ek.
Rossi 36.70 NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters
Ek 36.74 NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

Also, Rossi already has as many full seasons as Ek. Ek has so far dressed up for all games in the shortened 20-21 season.

I think top speed is a fairly poor measure of skating ability.

Unless you think Bogosian was the 7th fastest player in the league last year.

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for skaters including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.

edge.nhl.com

 

[BagHead]

Again, the cap increases are projections. Rather than this upcoming season, and future caps are not guaranteed. I would even argue next year’s cap isn’t a guarantee.

I’m going to try to keep this as apolitical as possible but all these things will and do affect the cap..

The stock market (not actually a good indicator of the economy but it’s what people use) is propped up right now and the bubble is prime for popping.

Hell, with all the programs being cut it’s going to cause a huge snowball effect.

Then you have people, that have citizenship here, being sent back to their home countries which will deter people (mostly Canadians) from visiting the US to watch their teams play. That’s reduced income as well.

In short, I wouldn’t hold those cap projections in high regard

Oh yeah, definitely. Projections are never guarantees, but we use them because they're typically close enough and we need to make decisions in the present based on what we expect in the future. I used this upcoming season's projected number for that calculation, $95.5 million, which should be fairly accurate (even if not exactly accurate) due to how near it is.

For the purpose of this discussion, we need some idea of what the cap will be, so that's what I'm using. I gave a buffer of $1 million on the contract range, so I think that pretty well gives me a margin of error on that cap ceiling changing.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Oh yeah, definitely. Projections are never guarantees, but we use them because they're typically close enough and we need to make decisions in the present based on what we expect in the future. I used this upcoming season's projected number for that calculation, $95.5 million, which should be fairly accurate (even if not exactly accurate) due to how near it is.

For the purpose of this discussion, we need some idea of what the cap will be, so that's what I'm using. I gave a buffer of $1 million on the contract range, so I think that pretty well gives me a margin of error on that cap ceiling changing.

I guess my point was, I wouldn't expect the cap to increase to 110 or whatever was expected in 2-3 years time

 

[Death of Rats]

What I’m seeing is that even an injured Eriksson Ek is faster than Rossi.

Take the last season numbers and they are still neck and neck. They have very similar burst speed numbers, too. Ek should be around his prime, and Rossi is still on his way. Don't really get the idea why he should be shipped out of town. If you look at his production over the years he has improved season after seaon in every league: OHL 65 p to 120 p, AHL 53 p in 63 games to 51 p in 53 games, NHL 40 p to ~60 p. Koivu scored in his 23/24 age season 54 points, Ek 30 points. Also, has there been any real evidence of Rossi demanding the moon for his next contract?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Take the last season numbers and they are still neck and neck. They have very similar burst speed numbers, too. Ek should be around his prime, and Rossi is still on his way. Don't really get the idea why he should be shipped out of town. If you look at his production over the years he has improved season after seaon in every league: OHL 65 p to 120 p, AHL 53 p in 63 games to 51 p in 53 games, NHL 40 p to ~60 p. Koivu scored in his 23/24 age season 54 points, Ek 30 points. Also, has there been any real evidence of Rossi demanding the moon for his next contract?

Just "insider" reporting, but that's obviously fed to them by somebody.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Take the last season numbers and they are still neck and neck. They have very similar burst speed numbers, too. Ek should be around his prime, and Rossi is still on his way. Don't really get the idea why he should be shipped out of town. If you look at his production over the years he has improved season after seaon in every league: OHL 65 p to 120 p, AHL 53 p in 63 games to 51 p in 53 games, NHL 40 p to ~60 p. Koivu scored in his 23/24 age season 54 points, Ek 30 points. Also, has there been any real evidence of Rossi demanding the moon for his next contract?

Russo said they are far apart on negotiations.

 

[AKL]

Russo said they are far apart on negotiations.

Does "far apart" mean Rossi is demanding the moon, or does it mean Guerin won't go over a pittance for him?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Does "far apart" mean Rossi is demanding the moon, or does it mean Guerin won't go over a pittance for him?

I seem to recall somewhere in the back of my brain that Russo used Byfield as an example of what Guerin would want to/be willing to do with Rossi.

With cap inflation, that's 5 x $6.5M and is pretty much exactly where I'd have him on a 5 year deal.

If it's a case where Rossi and his agent are > $8M on an 8 year deal, I'm afraid I'm probably on Guerin's side here.

 

[AKL]

With cap inflation, that's 5 x $6.5M and is pretty much exactly where I'd have him on a 5 year deal.

If it's a case where Rossi and his agent are > $8M on an 8 year deal, I'm afraid I'm probably on Guerin's side here.

Does 5x6.5 not essentially translate into 8x8 when you start buying up UFA years?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Does 5x6.5 not essentially translate into 8x8 when you start buying up UFA years?

Pretty close. I have it as $500k per year, so 8 x $7.9M. But mid-term might be as far as they're comfortable with. Can't exactly sit here and call them out for that. Not every 2nd contract needs to go long-term.

 

[AKL]

Pretty close. I have it as $500k per year, so 8 x $7.9M. But mid-term might be as far as they're comfortable with. Can't exactly sit here and call them out for that. Not every 2nd contract needs to go long-term.

Not it doesn't need to go long term, but it does need to get done. I don't really doubt that Rossi would be fine with a short term deal. But Guerin needs to be willing to compromise too, and I don't think we have any indication that he does that much.

Wild don't have the organizational center depth or quality to make Rossi a luxury at this point. The only way we can afford to lose him is if we get a better center back. I'm not seeing it. Nelson ain't it. Barzal could be it but why do the Isles do that? Pettersson is a headcase, he's also making 11.6 and not outproducing Rossi.

Unfortunately, I think plan A probably is something like trading Rossi for a Peterka type winger and signing Nelson for more than he's worth. That feels like a very Guerin move. And I like Peterka, but that's a lateral move that won't do anything except obliterate our long term center depth, again.

 

[AKL]

@Dr Jan Itor I can't be bothered to check the cap, but if Guerin is dead set on Nelson, something like this would make more sense to me:

Kaprizov-Rossi-Zuccarello
Yurov-Ek-Boldy
Ohgren?-Nelson-Hartman
Foligno-Gaudreau-Trenin
Hinostroza

Brodin-Faber
Buium-Spurgeon
Middleton-Jiricek
Bogosian

Gustavsson
Wallstedt

Basically adding Nelson and Yurov to this current team and hoping Kaprizov and Ek stay healthy.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Not it doesn't need to go long term, but it does need to get done. I don't really doubt that Rossi would be fine with a short term deal. But Guerin needs to be willing to compromise too, and I don't think we have any indication that he does that much.

Wild don't have the organizational center depth or quality to make Rossi a luxury at this point. The only way we can afford to lose him is if we get a better center back. I'm not seeing it. Nelson ain't it. Barzal could be it but why do the Isles do that? Pettersson is a headcase, he's also making 11.6 and not outproducing Rossi.

Unfortunately, I think plan A probably is something like trading Rossi for a Peterka type winger and signing Nelson for more than he's worth. That feels like a very Guerin move. And I like Peterka, but that's a lateral move that won't do anything except obliterate our long term center depth, again.

Not to sound like a management stooge, but part of the benefit of RFA status is that management kind of doesn't need to compromise. Rossi's options are to be offer-sheeted or not play, and that's kind of it. Obviously that is dependent on management having a reasonable and defensible position for their side, and there's value in many cases about maintaining positive relationships with players that you feel are going to be big parts of the team going forward, so that might cause more flexibility in other situations.

If Guerin is sitting there and saying, "look, you know what, long-term isn't on the table right now, here are the options that we're comfortable with":

5 x $6.5M
3 x $5.5M
2 x $5.0M

And all of those options can be defended using the current market environment, recently signed contract comparables, etc., then it just kind of is what it is and it's up to Rossi's agent to go find offersheets for more if they'd like (if that's how it works, not sure).

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

@Dr Jan Itor I can't be bothered to check the cap, but if Guerin is dead set on Nelson, something like this would make more sense to me:

Kaprizov-Rossi-Zuccarello
Yurov-Ek-Boldy
Ohgren?-Nelson-Hartman
Foligno-Gaudreau-Trenin
Hinostroza

Brodin-Faber
Buium-Spurgeon
Middleton-Jiricek
Bogosian

Gustavsson
Wallstedt

Basically adding Nelson and Yurov to this current team and hoping Kaprizov and Ek stay healthy.

We have $15M in space (leaving a bit of a cushion), which includes Yurov, Jiricek and Buium on roster. So as long as Rossi + Nelson come in at $15M or under (which they should), and there aren't any rollovers from this year to next, I believe that roster is fine with room to spare.

 

[AKL]

Obviously that is dependent on management having a reasonable and defensible position for their side, and there's value in many cases about maintaining positive relationships with players that you feel are going to be big parts of the team going forward

Well since we're doing this, can't avoid it. I'm gonna have to bring up Fiala.

I think for those last few years Fiala was here, we saw it play out in a way where Guerin had a number for Fiala that he wouldn't go over. I don't think Guerin's number was all that reasonable or defensible unless you think being the GM of the team makes whatever number he picks reasonable or defensible because he's in charge and can do what he wants. I think this is supported by the fact that Fiala got 7.9M on a long term deal, which was very reasonable and defensible and not absurd on Fiala's behalf.

But in the meantime, Guerin used every bit of power he had over Fiala as an RFA to squeeze every last drop of juice out of him at the lowest $ amount he possibly could before dumping him. It obviously strained relations throughout, culminating in Guerin (extremely unprofessionally) going on a radio show and publicly throwing Fiala under the bus ("two good months").

So I don't exactly trust him to be reasonable with his contracts. Further supported by the Foligno contracts+others, if I recall Foligno said something about how they didn't even really negotiate a deal? That was kind of Guerin's initial offer and Foligno wasn't dumb enough to turn it down.

And when his idea of what a contract should be doesn't match what the market dictates a contract should be, I don't think he's very good about bending. Which isn't necessarily a negative trait for a GM to have, but the problem with him having that trait is that I don't think he has very good judgment when it comes to which players he should be playing hardball with, and which players he should be amenable to.

So really, I don't trust him to have a reasonable and defensible position when it comes to contracts (numerous examples), and I don't trust him to maintain positive relationships with players he disagrees on value with (just the one glaring example, for now).

 

[Spurgeon]

We have $15M in space (leaving a bit of a cushion), which includes Yurov, Jiricek and Buium on roster. So as long as Rossi + Nelson come in at $15M or under (which they should), and there aren't any rollovers from this year to next, I believe that roster is fine with room to spare.

PuckPedia must not include bonuses or dead cap in their PuckGM numbers because I have them at $18M in available cap with 2 extra skaters (Gaunce/Bogosian) and max ELCs for Buium + Yurov.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Well since we're doing this, can't avoid it. I'm gonna have to bring up Fiala.

I think for those last few years Fiala was here, we saw it play out in a way where Guerin had a number for Fiala that he wouldn't go over. I don't think Guerin's number was all that reasonable or defensible unless you think being the GM of the team makes whatever number he picks reasonable or defensible because he's in charge and can do what he wants. I think this is supported by the fact that Fiala got 7.9M on a long term deal, which was very reasonable and defensible and not absurd on Fiala's behalf.

But in the meantime, Guerin used every bit of power he had over Fiala as an RFA to squeeze every last drop of juice out of him at the lowest $ amount he possibly could before dumping him. It obviously strained relations throughout, culminating in Guerin (extremely unprofessionally) going on a radio show and publicly throwing Fiala under the bus ("two good months").

So I don't exactly trust him to be reasonable with his contracts. Further supported by the Foligno contracts+others, if I recall Foligno said something about how they didn't even really negotiate a deal? That was kind of Guerin's initial offer and Foligno wasn't dumb enough to turn it down.

And when his idea of what a contract should be doesn't match what the market dictates a contract should be, I don't think he's very good about bending. Which isn't necessarily a negative trait for a GM to have, but the problem with him having that trait is that I don't think he has very good judgment when it comes to which players he should be playing hardball with, and which players he should be amenable to.

So really, I don't trust him to have a reasonable and defensible position when it comes to contracts (numerous examples), and I don't trust him to maintain positive relationships with players he disagrees on value with (just the one glaring example, for now).

Fiala was in my head as I was typing it. Don't disagree with you on any of it. Guerin didn't value Fiala and proceeded accordingly.

We only get incomplete information about any of this. All I'm saying is if (for example) Guerin is holding Rossi to Byfield + cap inflation (which I admit I have no idea if he is), I can't really demonize it unless somebody can show that a bigger contract is more reasonable/defensible.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Delete.