Speculation: Trade and Free Agency - 2024-25

[Digitalbooya]

The pk is a system issue , the need is any semblance of top 6th scoring depth.

And probably to trade Spurgeon or Brodin so our defense isn’t so soft. Half our top 4 isn’t built for playoff hockey.

 

[f7ben]

And probably to trade Spurgeon or Brodin so our defense isn’t so soft. Half our top 4 isn’t built for playoff hockey.

I was entertaining the same thoughts concerning those two. They are very skilled and excellent defensemen with plus level attributes who get absolutely clowned every post season when the game gets more physical and the refs let big boy hockey happen for 2/3rds of the game or until it suits their management strategy to make calls.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Sell Boldy for a legitimate top 6 forward.

 

[north21]

Sell Boldy for a legitimate top 6 forward.

Let's not do anything stupid.

 

[BagHead]

Let's not do anything stupid.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Let's not do anything stupid.

His assist tonight was a hilarious representation of him as a player. Pass it to a guy and let him do all the work. He’s yet another complementary player when we need line drivers.

 

[NHL1674]

Sell Boldy for a legitimate top 6 forward.

I know you don't like him, but good grief. Come on.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I know you don't like him, but good grief. Come on.

I do like him, but this team has a ton of players like him and he’s the only one with enough value to bring back a line driver.

 

[north21]

but this team has a ton of players like him

That is a no.

 

[Digitalbooya]

That is a no.

Complementary players that need someone else driving the line in order to be effective? Yes.

 

[north21]

If we had two or three boldys we would be better than a team with one boldy.

No doubt he has been bad lately but let's not have the shortest of memories.

 

[Digitalbooya]

If we had two or three boldys we would be better than a team with one boldy.

No doubt he has been bad lately but let's not have the shortest of memories.

He pulls a disappearing act for a large chunk of games every year.

 

[BagHead]

His assist tonight was a hilarious representation of him as a player. Pass it to a guy and let him do all the work. He’s yet another complementary player when we need line drivers.

Even just looking at his stats outside of points, you can tell he's slumping right now. He's had 11 shots in his last 8 games versus 29 shots in his first 8. I don't have these next numbers for the Dallas game right now, but his xGF 5v5 has been an average of 37.8% the last 7 games before tonight, and had been 60.1% in those first 8 games.

He's just not finding the spots in the ice to take good shots from like he was. I don't know why, but sometimes players go through ruts like this, and some players are streakier than others (he's one of the streaky ones). He's not a bad player, he's just not playing up to his standards right now.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Even just looking at his stats outside of points, you can tell he's slumping right now. He's had 11 shots in his last 8 games versus 29 shots in his first 8. I don't have these next numbers for the Dallas game right now, but his xGF 5v5 has been an average of 37.8% the last 7 games before tonight, and had been 60.1% in those first 8 games.

He's just not finding the spots in the ice to take good shots from like he was. I don't know why, but sometimes players go through ruts like this, and some players are streakier than others (he's one of the streaky ones). He's not a bad player, he's just not playing up to his standards right now.

Does that timeframe line up with Ek getting injured?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'm not saying Boldy is playing great or anything, but he was shooting his normal percentage (12-13%) while things were going good, and now during the dip he's under 5%.

Normalize it and he's probably got ~4 goals and 7 points in the last 10 games vs. 1 goal and 4 points in the last 10. Still not GREAT, but a little more normal.

 

[north21]

Even if you trade boldy for a "line driver" you likely getting an older and more expensive player that you get to watch decline while boldy enters his best years.

 

[BagHead]

Does that timeframe line up with Ek getting injured?

It very well may. If you're asking him to produce the same way with significantly worse linemates, you're asking him to be a Kaprizov-level player (or better still, as we'll see). Being able to produce 1v3 or in extremely limited offensive zone-time are exceedingly rare skills to possess. When he has linemates that are anywhere near his skill level, he has driven play. If your suggestion is to trade Boldy for a Kaprizov level player, you're going to be disappointed by reality.

For reference:
Mojo - Hartman - Boldy has CF% = 38,7%
Mojo - JEE - Boldy = 59.2%
Mojo - Gaudreau - Boldy = 47.7%.
Note: I took CF% because it was right there on Frozen Tools, and no other reason.

It seems fairly obvious to me that the center quality of a line matters a lot, even for a lines most skilled guys.

Looking at Kaprizov:
Zucc - Rossi - Kap CF% = 51.9%
Boldy - JEE - Kap = 57.7%
Boldy - Rossi - Kap = 56.8%

Looking at Kaprizov's most common linemates, we can see that Zuccarello and Rossi are worse than Boldy and JEE, at least when playing with Kaprizov. If we ignored the last line of data, it would appear that JEE is the driver for all of this, but then we see he's not on the bottom line of data, and the CF% is nearly as good without him as with him.

tl;dr If any of this proves anything, it's that Kaprizov is the best player on the team by a good margin, and that good players get better results when they can hold the offensive zone. JEE is great at holding it, Rossi is pretty good at holding it, Kaprizov is awesome at it, Boldy is good at it, Zuccarello is sort of bad at it, Hartman is terrible at it, Gaudreau is not as bad as Hartman at it but still not great. Boldy won't produce as well if his line can't hold the zone, just like Kaprizov doesn't.

 

[57special]

You hope that the longer Boldy stays on the team, the more Kaprizov's play will influence, and rub off on him.

Instead, it looks like Hartman is the guy he is choosing to emulate.