Speculation: Trade and Free Agency - 2024-25

[Dr Jan Itor]

15m is excessive IMO ... but then again, I'm not liepold and I'm not paying him so what do i care. If they can pay him 15 and ice a competitive team, more power to them

What do you think he should get?

 

[Soldier13Fox]

To be clear, not a reflection of my opinion on Kap. Hes a superstar, always gives 100%, seems like a humble and likeable guy... he should try and get everything he thinks he deserves. I've never had hard feelings over players jumping over to the greener grass.

 

[Soldier13Fox]

What do you think he should get?

You got me, I'm not prepared to talk actual money. I will say, as much as I like Kap, I don't want to be the team that makes him the highest paid player in NHL history.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You got me, I'm not prepared to talk actual money. I will say, as much as I like Kap, I don't want to be the team that makes him the highest paid player in NHL history.

I’m not un-nervous about it. Just not sure what choice we really have.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Bogo, who is signed for one more year at a bargain price.

I think he has been laying just fine as a 3rd pairing guy, providing the size and physicality that no on but he and Middleton provide. Jiricek can't even break into the CBJ D lineup, which, Werenski aside, is not impressive.

For some reason I thought his contract was up next year. Good point. However, the last time Bogosian played 70 games in a season he was part of the Atlanta Thrashers. The Wild have a myriad of defensemen that are injury prone (Spurgeon, Brodin, Bogosian). If Bogosian gets injured and Spurgeon re-aggravates something, we might find out quickly how terrible our RD depth is.

Legitiamately think there is a better chance that Columbus is mismanaging Jiricek more than Jiricek is unable to play at the NHL level.

 

[saywut]

Don't see a trade lining up for Jiricek.

Think if a Rossi trade happens most will be happy with the return, but I think its unlikely to happen during this season.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a Bryan Rust acquisition later on in the season, once more cap space is accrued. Cost certainty and Guerin familiarity, right hand shot.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Not sure the can ask for $20M until the cap is officially $100M.

Why not? If the cap is going to go up 12-15M in on shot (per Friedman), or even as a chance too, then why would you get the extension done a year early?

 

[Digitalbooya]

Why not? If the cap is going to go up 12-15M in on shot (per Friedman), or even as a chance too, then why would you get the extension done a year early?

Max contract AAV is 20% of the cap. So I believe it would need to be $100M officially in order to offer it.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

I heard friedman say this stuff in podcast form, but here’s an article that summarizes it: Insider: NHL Could See Big Salary Cap Jump

Cap likely going somewhere between 95-97 next season (currently is 88M). There will be another spike the following year, with some estimates going as high as 110M. The cap for the 2019-2020 season, which was the first season of Panarin’s new deal, was 81.5M. That means Panarin was getting 14.2% of the teams cap. That would be 15.6M per year, which I’m completely comfortable paying him. Now, Kaprizov will have multiple hundred point season and potentially a hart trophy finalist bid under his belt. His resume will be much stronger than Panarin’s coming out. Additionally, the the number that he asks for won’t be the number he settles at. I would bet that contract negotiations start with Kaprizov’s team asking for 20M or north of it. I think it will probably get done in the neighborhood of 17M when it’s all said and done. McDavid’s deal was 15.7% of the cap when he signed it, given what he means to the franchise, that’s what I would expect the Wild to settle on. So, 17.29M is my official prediction for his next contract, on an 8 year deal.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Why not? If the cap is going to go up 12-15M in on shot (per Friedman), or even as a chance too, then why would you get the extension done a year early?

I just think it has to officially be set before a signed agreement can be made, considering the 20% max rule.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

I just think it has to officially be set before a signed agreement can be made, considering the 20% max rule.

Yeah, I know that the new CBA is supposed to get being targeted to be done before the cup finals, but even then I don’t know if we’ll have official numbers to work off of but I’d imagine the teams would have projections. It just makes it extremely difficult to negotiate with your guy early if the cap is going to go up 15M the next year. They’re going to want to use that number or wait.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I would bet that contract negotiations start with Kaprizov’s team asking for 20M or north of it.

You would bet that Kaprizov's camp starts negotiations with a contract that isn't legal per the CBA?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, I know that the new CBA is supposed to get being targeted to be done before the cup finals, but even then I don’t know if we’ll have official numbers to work off of but I’d imagine the teams would have projections. It just makes it extremely difficult to negotiate with your guy early if the cap is going to go up 15M the next year. They’re going to want to use that number or wait.

A new CBA isn't going to reveal cap numbers. That's only going to be known for sure probably sometime late in the 2025-26 season. Even now, for next year, Freidman is just currently speculating, even though it's probably educated speculation.

I'm just saying that Kaprizov likely can't put pen to paper on a number that isn't yet 100% for sure legal. If he signs for $20M on a projected $102M cap, but then for some reason that the cap only gets to $99.8M, that contract would now be void.

And I guess I should preface this by thinking all of this is going on during the summer of 2025. If this is going on in the spring of 2026, then it's different.

 

[Digitalbooya]

And I guess I should preface this by thinking all of this is going on during the summer of 2025. If this is going on in the spring of 2026, then it's different.

Will truly be a nightmare scenario if Kaprizov's camp wants to wait till the cap numbers are released for the 25-26 season.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

A new CBA isn't going to reveal cap numbers. That's only going to be known for sure probably sometime late in the 2025-26 season. Even now, for next year, Freidman is just currently speculating, even though it's probably educated speculation.

I'm just saying that Kaprizov likely can't put pen to paper on a number that isn't yet 100% for sure legal. If he signs for $20M on a projected $102M cap, but then for some reason that the cap only gets to $99.8M, that contract would now be void.

And I guess I should preface this by thinking all of this is going on during the summer of 2025. If this is going on in the spring of 2026, then it's different.

We’ve never had a cap jump like this so I don’t know what the NHL will or won’t reveal, but they’re going to have to give teams some sort of detective in this. From Kaprizov’s perspective, makes no sense to negotiate off a 97M cap when it could realistically be 110 when the deal actually kicks in.

 

[Digitalbooya]

We’ve never had a cap jump like this so I don’t know what the NHL will or won’t reveal, but they’re going to have to give teams some sort of detective in this. From Kaprizov’s perspective, makes no sense to negotiate off a 97M cap when it could realistically be 110 when the deal actually kicks in.

The closest you will get to that is if the CBA would change contracts from a flat number to percentage of cap, which isn’t going to happen.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

The closest you will get to that is if the CBA would change contracts from a flat number to percentage of cap, which isn’t going to happen.

I don’t know what you’re trying to argue. Obviously that’s not going to happen. All I said is the Wild are in a harder spot than even we thought before because of the increasing cap and uncertainty about the number. They’re going to have to pay based on the increasing cap or Kaprizov is going to wait.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I don’t know what you’re trying to argue. Obviously that’s not going to happen. All I said is the Wild are in a harder spot than even we thought before because of the increasing cap and uncertainty about the number. They’re going to have to pay based on the increasing cap or Kaprizov is going to wait.

Except, they're not. Kaprizov would have to ask for the highest cap percentage ever received on a contract in order for it to matter. 20% of 97M is $19.4M. $19.4M represents 17.63% of $110M. That is almost 2 percentage points higher than the current highest contract cap percentage.

If Kaprizov's camp starts negotiations off by asking for $20M based on a $110M ceiling (like you suggested), 18.18% of a non-guaranteed cap ceiling and breaking the 20% rule of the CBA for the current ceiling, that seems like extremely bad faith negotiating.

Kaprizov should realistically be somewhere around Draisaitl/MacKinnon/Matthews (~15%). His camp will probably start around 17.5% of the projected ceiling ($19.25M for $110M ceiling and legal to sign w the $97M ceiling). The Wild will probably start at 13% ($14.3M). They will go back and forth until they likely settle in the 15-15.5% range ($16.5-$17M). If it takes slightly higher, so be it.

With that being said, neither the $97M cap ceiling nor the $110M cap ceiling are guaranteed at this point. The current MOU only allows the ceiling to raise 5% year over year. Both the NHL and NHLPA would need to agree in order to raise it more than 5%. There's also the part of the CBA that says 50% of the HRR goes to the players and 50% to the owners. Once the MOU is no longer a part of the system, the cap will spike to the number needed to achieve the 50-50 split. So if the cap only raises ~5% next year, the following year with the new CBA could see a $20M cap jump. It should be in everyone’s best interest for a higher than 5% bump next year to avoid absolute chaos in 2026.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Except, they're not. Kaprizov would have to ask for the highest cap percentage ever received on a contract in order for it to matter. 20% of 97M is $19.4M. $19.4M represents 17.63% of $110M. That is almost 2 percentage points higher than the current highest contract cap percentage.

If Kaprizov's camp starts negotiations off by asking for $20M based on a $110M ceiling (like you suggested), 18.18% of a non-guaranteed cap ceiling and breaking the 20% rule of the CBA for the current ceiling, that seems like extremely bad faith negotiating.

Kaprizov should realistically be somewhere around Draisaitl/MacKinnon/Matthews (~15%). His camp will probably start around 17.5% of the projected ceiling ($19.25M for $110M ceiling and legal to sign w the $97M ceiling). The Wild will probably start at 13% ($14.3M). They will go back and forth until they likely settle in the 15-15.5% range ($16.5-$17M). If it takes slightly higher, so be it.

With that being said, neither the $97M cap ceiling nor the $110M cap ceiling are guaranteed at this point. The current MOU only allows the ceiling to raise 5% year over year. Both the NHL and NHLPA would need to agree in order to raise it more than 5%. There's also the part of the CBA that says 50% of the HRR goes to the players and 50% to the owners. Once the MOU is no longer a part of the system, the cap will spike to the number needed to achieve the 50-50 split. So if the cap only raises ~5% next year, the following year with the new CBA could see a $20M cap jump. It should be in everyone’s best interest for a higher than 5% bump next year to avoid absolute chaos in 2026.

…So we agree Kaprizov is going to get 17+M, which is a lot know than anyone would’ve thought?

 

[Digitalbooya]

…So we agree Kaprizov is going to get 17+M, which is a lot know than anyone would’ve thought?

I’m not willing to concede that yet.

 

[Luceni]

If they pay Kap 17M per year, they can't resign Rossi or Gus. Or am I missing something?