Rumor: TOR and John Tavares close to a deal: 3 years at 7 million

[Orfieus]

Cool fictional cap numbers.

So I vaguely understand this but when COVID happened the players and league came to an agreement till the CBA ends so right now revenue isn't 50/50 split forcing the cap to be artificially low. But once the CBA ends the players is going to want the salary cap adjusted and that potentially could mean the CAP FLOOR will be well over $100m

CBA ends after the 2026-27 season

I quickly found this explanation:

 

[Roo]

Feels this is misinformation given nothing has happened. Hopefully the Aav is lower.

 

[Confucius]

Bringing in Schenn allows you to be tougher on JT. He loses leverage. 5-5.5 should get it done.

Schenn is not as good as JT and has a caphit of 6.5 for the next 3 years. So bringing him in and losing JT makes us worse. But yeah we would save 500, 000.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

So I vaguely understand this but when COVID happened the players and league came to an agreement till the CBA ends so right now revenue isn't 50/50 split forcing the cap to be artificially low. But once the CBA ends the players is going to want the salary cap adjusted and that potentially could mean the CAP FLOOR will be well over $100m

CBA ends after the 2026-27 season

I quickly found this explanation:

OK. Makes sense.

 

[Stephen]

So I vaguely understand this but when COVID happened the players and league came to an agreement till the CBA ends so right now revenue isn't 50/50 split forcing the cap to be artificially low. But once the CBA ends the players is going to want the salary cap adjusted and that potentially could mean the CAP FLOOR will be well over $100m

CBA ends after the 2026-27 season

I quickly found this explanation:

Kind of boggles the mind that the owners got the players to pay back some share of HRR due to operating costs for that Covid bubble and it's taken half a decade of artificially low cap to do it... meanwhile players are just frozen out of franchise values where the real equity lies.

 

[LeafEgo]

No one knows if another covid type event or recession will come along. So after being burned by that perhaps we should wait and see rather thn realying on projections.

I wouldn't bother working the probability of global plagues into near term cap structuring, but I am hesitant to believe the cap will sky rocket year over year for other reasons.

But as others have said, the environment is so competitive that you either play the game, throw around money and NMCs, or sit out.

You have to build a program ahead of time to protect yourself, which we didn't do, so now we drink from the fire hose and hope for the best.

I would agree that JT has very little leverage here, and when I say very little, I actually mean none.

It's the Steven Stamkos situation, but inverted. He's already entered his winding it down family years in the city of his choosing, and has made his big big bucks but hasn't won. He has no need to "go to Nashville" financially, and if he wants to come back, it should be to actually be team friendly.

Plus he's not really a sentimental favorite, so if the team crashes and burns yet again, it will be all too easy to take his $11 million and throw it at something flashier. He would be the first cut in a summer of mandated change.

Anyway, I don't think it should be a 3 year $7 million AAV for $21 million. I'd almost be inclined to flip it around and say $3 million at 7 years instead, ride off into the sunset when you want to but have a piece of paper tying you to Toronto, or some combination of $21 million spread out over more years. He's just squeaking in at 35 and under this July 1. I don't think he'll be making serious money in 3 years time.

Agreed, but all this is better sorted out after the playoffs imo, given the whole 'leverage none' situation. We can only improve our decision making with the additional critical information.

 

[kevsh]

He would be the first cut in a summer of mandated change.

The only problem is that there is nothing in how MLSE has handled this club, ever, that suggests they will make any change this summer if this team flops again. Mandated? Not remotely, unless you really believed Pelley's PR-talk B.S. about how he was told to "just win".

Failure again means, perhaps, letting Shanahan walk in an attempt to give what will certainly be a majorly disgruntled fan base (yet again) something to be optimistic about so we don't jump ship. Just like hiring Berube did last summer.

I am certain there is a motivational poster somewhere in the top floor offices at MLSE that reads: "Just give them enough that they believe things will be different next year" right under a cartoon of Lucy pulling the football away from an airborne Charlie Brown.

 

[rielledup]

People have to remember that just because a team has a bunch of cap space doesn't automatically mean they'll be able to sign or trade for good players to use it.

 

[LeafEgo]

The only problem is that there is nothing in how MLSE has handled this club, ever, that suggests they will make any change this summer if this team flops again. Mandated? Not remotely, unless you really believed Pelley's PR-talk B.S. about how he was told to "just win".

Failure again means, perhaps, letting Shanahan walk in an attempt to give what will certainly be a majorly disgruntled fan base (yet again) something to be optimistic about so we don't jump ship. Just like hiring Berube did last summer.

I am certain there is a motivational poster somewhere in the top floor offices at MLSE that reads: "Just give them enough that they believe things will be different next year" right under a cartoon of Lucy pulling the football away from an airborne Charlie Brown.

You have to appreciate that the preposterous dubie/keefe experiment is over. We don't know what ownership direction gets handed down, but as far as hockey management can take you, there's reason to be optimistic that things are at least a little bit more normal now, which may translate to common sense.

Pure speculation, but my read is that Shanny has been a non factor for a while now.

 

[Gabriel426]

There’s probably a lot going on behind the scenes
Mitch, JT, knies, depending how much they pay 2 may determine if they can retain all 3. Knies being only 22 would be my priority. Hard to turn down JT at 7, I feel that’s great value for a #2 center of his calibre.but It depends on how much Knies and Mitch want. If Mitch walks I can see JT asking for more. If we lose 2 of the 3 we will be a lot weaker next year. We need good value from all 3.

I will take Bennett at 7-8 over JT at 7. Unless JT use the deferred style contract where 7mil is actually 4.5mil caphit per year.

 

[Sypher04]

I get that Bennett is a playoff warrior in many eyes, and that’s not entirely unearned, but 7-8M is pretty poor value for a player who has never had more than 49 points in his career.

 

[Confucius]

I will take Bennett at 7-8 over JT at 7. Unless JT use the deferred style contract where 7mil is actually 4.5mil caphit per year.

Well point wise, you won’t get as many as we do from JT and you may pay up to a million more.

 

[Gabriel426]

Well point wise, you won’t get as many as we do from JT and you may pay up to a million more.

This is the thing, a lot of JT points come from PP. Knies will most likely takes his PP spot and his goals and points total would increase.
At the end, I don’t think Leafs offence will suffer at all or as much as the goals/points diff between JT and Bennett

 

[notbias]

Bringing in Schenn allows you to be tougher on JT. He loses leverage. 5-5.5 should get it done.

It's crazy people want to bring in Schenn at 6.5x3 and not have JT at 7...

JT is better than Schenn and they are similar ages.

 

[Budz]

It's crazy people want to bring in Schenn at 6.5x3 and not have JT at 7...

JT is better than Schenn and they are similar ages.

Who said I wouldn’t sign JT?

I would just try to leverage him for a sweeter deal. I don’t think he would leave.

 

[hotpaws]

It's crazy people want to bring in Schenn at 6.5x3 and not have JT at 7...

JT is better than Schenn and they are similar ages.

i don't want either

what's crazy is people want to re-sign a player who disappears every post season

 

[colchar]

It comes from Steve Simmons so take that into account, but in his column today he says that this alleged deal is pure BS and that nothing has been negotiated yet.

 

[Fogelhund]

I will take Bennett at 7-8 over JT at 7. Unless JT use the deferred style contract where 7mil is actually 4.5mil caphit per year.

Maybe, but I believe Florida is going to extend him, they have the cap, and the need. We'll have to look elsewhere. I doubt Bennett will be an option for us.

It wouldn't shock me to see Duchene looking at finishing his career near home though.

 

[-DeMo-]

This is the thing, a lot of JT points come from PP. Knies will most likely takes his PP spot and his goals and points total would increase.
At the end, I don’t think Leafs offence will suffer at all or as much as the goals/points diff between JT and Bennett

I mean not sure where you get this. JT is currently tied for 26th among all forwards with 39 EVP this season and with 84 EVP(35th most among forwards combining this with last year) and 31 PPP since the start of last year. almost 2/3rd's of JT points are at Even strength.

this year

Marner has 25 PPP vs 48 EVP = 34% PPP
Nylander has 21 PPP vs 40 EVP = 34% PPP
Tavares has 11 PPP vs 39 EVP = 22% PPP
Matthews has 14 PPP vs 36 EVP = 28% PPP

total Myth that Tavares is mostly a PP Merchant.

 

[notbias]

i don't want either

what's crazy is people want to re-sign a player who disappears every post season

A lot of support for signing Bennett... I'm sure you aren't one of those people, right?

Who said I wouldn’t sign JT?

I would just try to leverage him for a sweeter deal. I don’t think he would leave.

So you bring in Schenn at 6.5 (likely paying assets) and then tell a better player he is not worth slightly more? Makes no sense at all.

 

[Budz]

A lot of support for signing Bennett... I'm sure you aren't one of those people, right?



So you bring in Schenn at 6.5 (likely paying assets) and then tell a better player he is not worth slightly more? Makes no sense at all.

What makes no sense is comparing a newly negotiated contract vs one signed years ago.

You are overthinking this.

 

[Gabriel426]

I mean not sure where you get this. JT is currently tied for 26th among all forwards with 39 EVP this season and with 84 EVP(35th most among forwards combining this with last year) and 31 PPP since the start of last year. almost 2/3rd's of JT points are at Even strength.

this year

Marner has 25 PPP vs 48 EVP = 34% PPP
Nylander has 21 PPP vs 40 EVP = 34% PPP
Tavares has 11 PPP vs 39 EVP = 22% PPP
Matthews has 14 PPP vs 36 EVP = 28% PPP

total Myth that Tavares is mostly a PP Merchant.

If you take away those PP points, how many points would JT have? That’s 39 points according to you. Bennett would have 32points excluding his PP points.
7 points is the difference, and same numbers of Goals if take away PP goals.

If that’s the diff, I would take Bennett over JT due to the other stuff that Bennett provides if both contracts/caphit is the same.

 

[hotpaws]

A lot of support for signing Bennett... I'm sure you aren't one of those people, right?

if my only options were re-signing JT or signing Bennett for similar money i'll take SB

-6 yrs younger
-produces slightly higher in the playoffs
-much more physical
-better defensively

 

[Confucius]

Kind of boggles the mind that the owners got the players to pay back some share of HRR due to operating costs for that Covid bubble and it's taken half a decade of artificially low cap to do it... meanwhile players are just frozen out of franchise values where the real equity lies.

How would they get anything from franchise values?

 

[Schennanigans]

To me it really all depends on how we perform in the playoffs. If it’s another failure I just let him and Marner pack their bags and I retool with a new look to the team.