Rumor: TOR and John Tavares close to a deal: 3 years at 7 million

[Dekes For Days]

This completely ignores how scoring in the league has changed during that time.

It also ignores that he's re-signing for ages 35+, instead of signing a UFA deal through his late 20s and early 30s. Valuations on those years are significantly different, even if he was playing to the same level leading up to the signing (and he's not). Though anybody suggesting Marner for 11m isn't being serious anyway.

 

[BraveCanadian]

It also ignores that he's re-signing for ages 35+, instead of signing a UFA deal through his late 20s and early 30s. Valuations on those years are significantly different, even if he was playing to the same level leading up to the signing (and he's not). Though anybody suggesting Marner for 11m isn't being serious anyway.

Yeah, looking at it in a very rudimentary way in raw totals during the timeframes they posted:

2015-16 to 2017-18 Tavares was 16th in the league in points.
2022-23 to 2024-25 Tavares falls to 42nd.

11 million dollars in is a huge over pay in either case but relative to the league he has dropped quite significantly and at his age he is only going to get worse going forward.. and possibly significantly at any time when the guy is 35+.

 

[sxvnert]

Offer him 20m over four years and move on.

 

[Hellcat]

I thought we were close to a deal?

 

[DarkKnight]

I’m glad we weren’t close to that deal. Awful. Go somewhere else then, yes someone will overpay, we can’t afford to John, and you already got the big deal. Do us a solid, you’re home, you’re on a contender, you play in the Mecca, take it or leave it. I could care less about insulting him.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

24-25: $7m is 7.95% of an $88m cap
25-26: $7m is 7.33% of a $95.5m cap ($6.45m equivalent today)
26-27: $7m is 6.73% of a $104m cap ($5.92m equivalent today)
27-28: $7m is 6.17% of a $113.5m cap ($5.43m equivalent today)

Looking forward to some fans being mystified by every UFA contract this offseason haha, but will certainly be an adjustment...

(note I post this without commenting on us 'running it back' haha. And I agree with posters querying whether, say, 4x5.5m could work instead)

Cool fictional cap numbers.

 

[DarkKnight]

Cool fictional cap numbers.

To be fair, looks reasonable from what I’ve heard floated.

 

[mapleleaf979]

I would let him walk and not resign him. If u watch enough Leafs games, specifically in the playoffs, u can see Tavares is a liability 5v5. In a slowed down PP setting, his IQ, hands are notable. The playoffs, Tavares is like 4.5 v 5 when its 5v5 all due to his foot speed. Tavares isnt back pressuring anyone into a stupid decision, he isnt making up ground on the back check or rush, he cant get out of small spaces in either zone to create a chance. Tavares is a 3rd line center if u have 2 fast wingers who play defense, otherwise,, his foot speed is on the white board, like u smell blood when u see him skate.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

To be fair, looks reasonable from what I’ve heard floated.

No one knows if another covid type event or recession will come along. So after being burned by that perhaps we should wait and see rather thn realying on projections.

 

[Sypher04]

Cool fictional cap numbers.

No one knows if another covid type event or recession will come along. So after being burned by that perhaps we should wait and see rather thn realying on projections.

Those numbers have been announced by NHL and PA as the cap for the next 3 seasons. They are only subject to minor potential adjustment

NHLPA, NHL announce team payroll ranges for next three seasons

The agreement sets annual increases to the Upper Limit, subject to the Collective Bargaining Agreement being in effect beyond the 2025-26 season.

www.nhlpa.com

 

[Confucius]

I’m glad we weren’t close to that deal. Awful. Go somewhere else then, yes someone will overpay, we can’t afford to John, and you already got the big deal. Do us a solid, you’re home, you’re on a contender, you play in the Mecca, take it or leave it. I could care less about insulting him.

That’s the way I see the Mitch deal…. Lol

 

[DarkKnight]

That’s the way I see the Mitch deal…. Lol

One is in his prime contract, on is on his last. Analogy isn't a good one.

 

[DarkKnight]

No one knows if another covid type event or recession will come along. So after being burned by that perhaps we should wait and see rather thn realying on projections.

Can't operate that way. Cap is expected to go up, other GM's will proceed accordingly.

 

[Confucius]

One is in his prime contract, on is on his last. Analogy isn't a good one.

Well he waited pretty late (28) to get a prime contract it may backfire on him. He has 5 or 6 prime years left and then he is in the exact same position as JT. He doesn’t have 8 prime years left, just my opinion.

 

[DarkKnight]

Well he waited pretty late (28) to get a prime contract it may backfire on him. He has 5 or 6 prime years left and then he is in the exact same position as JT. He doesn’t have 8 prime years left, just my opinion.

Either did JT when he signed.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't think he has the leverage to wait it out. Either sign the deal with the team or start packing..

If the Leafs flop in the first round and the front office continues to try and extend Marner he becomes the one they will sell to the fanbase about moving on from. And they know he clearly wants to stay with his family

I thought we were close to a deal?

Nope, at least not from what Mirtle/CJ ect have been saying

 

[AlienWorkShop]

No one knows if another covid type event or recession will come along. So after being burned by that perhaps we should wait and see rather thn realying on projections.

ok, good luck signing anyone.

 

[darrylsittler27]

I don't think there's any argument that Treliving can make that Mitch should make less than Willie's $11.45. Outside of goal scoring, Marner's contribution to the team is unquestionably more than Nylander's.

So unless Mitch is feeling charitable, which there is zero indication that he has been or will be, he's getting full value. Which likely means the negotiations don't even really get going until MLSE acknowledges the starting point for talks is north of, or very, very close to $13M.

The only question then is if MLSE will follow the Av's philosophy (for now at least) that no one is getting paid more than their 1C. I doubt it but if that is the case and Mitch wants more then he's likely not going to be a Maple Leaf on July 1st.

My almost certainly way-off prediction is that the deal gets done just before July 1st (perhaps mere hours before), coming in at something like $13.1M, just under Matthews.

Marner will get 13 times 8 or go elsewhere for 14 times 7. Same money.

 

[notbias]

No one knows if another covid type event or recession will come along. So after being burned by that perhaps we should wait and see rather thn realying on projections.

You may want to tell agents and GMs this... everyone works on projected numbers.

Sucks, because it messed up our cap structure last time, but it's how it works.

 

[Confucius]

I don't think he has the leverage to wait it out. Either sign the deal with the team or start packing..

If the Leafs flop in the first round and the front office continues to try and extend Marner he becomes the one they will sell to the fanbase about moving on from. And they know he clearly wants to stay with his family




Nope, at least not from what Mirtle/CJ ect have been saying

There’s probably a lot going on behind the scenes
Mitch, JT, knies, depending how much they pay 2 may determine if they can retain all 3. Knies being only 22 would be my priority. Hard to turn down JT at 7, I feel that’s great value for a #2 center of his calibre.but It depends on how much Knies and Mitch want. If Mitch walks I can see JT asking for more. If we lose 2 of the 3 we will be a lot weaker next year. We need good value from all 3.

 

[ToneDog]

There’s probably a lot going on behind the scenes
Mitch, JT, knies, depending how much they pay 2 may determine if they can retain all 3. Knies being only 22 would be my priority. Hard to turn down JT at 7, I feel that’s great value for a #2 center of his calibre.but It depends on how much Knies and Mitch want. If Mitch walks I can see JT asking for more. If we lose 2 of the 3 we will be a lot weaker next year. We need good value from all 3.

I'd be happy with Bennett and Ehlers and $5m in cap space for Knies if MM and JT walk.

Knies Matthews Ehlers
McMann Bennett Nylander

 

[Stephen]

I don't think he has the leverage to wait it out. Either sign the deal with the team or start packing..

If the Leafs flop in the first round and the front office continues to try and extend Marner he becomes the one they will sell to the fanbase about moving on from. And they know he clearly wants to stay with his family




Nope, at least not from what Mirtle/CJ ect have been saying

I would agree that JT has very little leverage here, and when I say very little, I actually mean none.

It's the Steven Stamkos situation, but inverted. He's already entered his winding it down family years in the city of his choosing, and has made his big big bucks but hasn't won. He has no need to "go to Nashville" financially, and if he wants to come back, it should be to actually be team friendly.

Plus he's not really a sentimental favorite, so if the team crashes and burns yet again, it will be all too easy to take his $11 million and throw it at something flashier. He would be the first cut in a summer of mandated change.

Anyway, I don't think it should be a 3 year $7 million AAV for $21 million. I'd almost be inclined to flip it around and say $3 million at 7 years instead, ride off into the sunset when you want to but have a piece of paper tying you to Toronto, or some combination of $21 million spread out over more years. He's just squeaking in at 35 and under this July 1. I don't think he'll be making serious money in 3 years time.

 

[Skullz]

It better be in the low 5 range, or Johnny can pack his bags.

 

[Stephen]

It better be in the low 5 range, or Johnny can pack his bags.

The way I see it, the deal is $21 million bucks in John Tavares' pocket from what has been reported, and that's the critical factor.

The number of years should be as long as possible because he wants to be here and is settled here, so lock it in.

In 3 years time, he's 38 and probably in the league minimum Giordano, Spezza stage in his career, so whether he can squeeze out a few low dollar, short term contracts on top of $21 million with someone (else) shouldn't matter more than being here for the long haul, maybe earn a free pay cheque into retirement.

It's on a tee for him. Doesn't need to over think it. There aren't that many variables.

Or don't lock it in and test the market. I don't think Leafs Nation is that passionate about this.

 

[Budz]

It better be in the low 5 range, or Johnny can pack his bags.

Bringing in Schenn allows you to be tougher on JT. He loses leverage. 5-5.5 should get it done.