Prospect Info: Top Prospects Poll 2019

[Mike1167]

That's fine. Maybe he's the best of the bunch ultimately, and I hope so. Sometimes you have to combine on ice with projections for these lists. He barely played last year and even when he did, his numbers were rough. If he can play well at the college level, that can all change in a hurry. Right now though, we have several goalies that the Canes saw enough in to draft higher and have played well and at higher levels of competition. Throw in a great prospect list of position players, and you have to put him way down the list for now.

I agree. There ARE a few other goalie prospects for the Canes who currently rank higher than Kooch. The fact that he didn't play much last year definitely factors into the equation, and his numbers WERE rough. I'm thinking that him having a full-time goalie coach this year will definitely help.

 

[DaveG]

And that's what it all comes down to with a guy like him. For reference our 6th round pick last year, Jesper Sellgren, was hardly on our radars last year but he broke out in what was essentially his draft + 2 since he was drafted as an overage. Getting to work with a dedicated goalie coach could be a boon for him in fighting out how to best use any natural athleticism.

Goalies are voodoo though man, so I like many underrate until they show they're clearly top 10 in our group any longer... And even then I might still underrate.

 

[DaveG]

so, posting my list which will inevitably be completely wrong by mid-season:

1 - Martin Necas
2 - Jake Bean
3 - Ryan Suzuki
4 - Morgan Geekie
5 - Jamieson Rees
6 - Jesper Sellgren
7 - Janne Kuokkanen
8 - Alex Nedeljkovic
9 - Pyotr Kochetkov
10 - Patrik Puistola
11 - Julien Gauthier
12 - Jack Drury
13 - Eetu Luostarinen
14 - Stelio Mattheos
15 - David Cotton

just missing: Anttoni Honka, Matt Filipe

 

[geehaad]

Mine's worse than yours.

1. Necas
2. Bean
3. Geekie
4. Suzuki
5. Kochetkov
6. Kuokkanen
7. Mattheos
8. Nedeljkovic
9. Gauthier
10. Luostarinen
11. Rees
12. Puistola
13. Helvig
14. McKeown
15. Martin

 

[emptyNedder]

1. Necas
2. Bean
3. Nedeljkovic
4. Kuokkanen
5. Geekie
6. Gauthier
7. Luostarinen
8. Suzuki
9. Sellgren
10. Mattheos
11. Helvig
12. McKeown
13. Rees
14. Martin
15. Smallman

 

[A Star is Burns]

so, posting my list which will inevitably be completely wrong by mid-season:

1 - Martin Necas
2 - Jake Bean
3 - Ryan Suzuki
4 - Morgan Geekie
5 - Jamieson Rees
6 - Jesper Sellgren
7 - Janne Kuokkanen
8 - Alex Nedeljkovic
9 - Pyotr Kochetkov
10 - Patrik Puistola
11 - Julien Gauthier
12 - Jack Drury
13 - Eetu Luostarinen
14 - Stelio Mattheos
15 - David Cotton

just missing: Anttoni Honka, Matt Filipe

By mid season you say

 

[DaveG]

So, end tally is tallied up and ready to be released the next few days: 27 total players receiving at least 1 vote. 15 receiving 10 or more votes. We also have a tie at #20.

 

[My Special Purpose]

1. Necas
2. Bean
3. Nedeljkovic
4. Kuokkanen
5. Geekie
6. Gauthier
7. Luostarinen
8. Suzuki
9. Sellgren
10. Mattheos
11. Helvig
12. McKeown
13. Rees
14. Martin
15. Smallman

Did you forget Kochetkov or are you just wrong?

 

[emptyNedder]

Did you forget Kochetkov or are you just wrong?

Neither.

I gave this some thought.

• Tried to avoid recency bias. Admittedly, I may have overcompensated. But the Canes didn't draft any players who should make the team in the next two years. A lot can happen in two years, so I didn't rank any in the top 7.
• I only have one viewing of Kochetkov. That was the prospect scrimmage. He was good, but Makiniemi was better in that extremely limited sample. I don't have Makiniemi in the top 15. (Kochetkov gave up a goal on a shot where had a clear view of the shooter. The goal was glove side high.)
• Goalie stats out of Russia are regularly better than for Europe and NA. Based solely on sv% and GAA, Kochetkov is quite similar to Schmakov (a 7th rounder in 2018) and Tarasov (a 3rd rounder in 2017). I wouldn't rank either of those goalies a better prospect than the Canes top 15.
• I weighted my rankings to reflect how likely I think players are to make the Canes roster.

We all admit goalies are voodoo, so that lowers their ranking. Look, Ned has was deemed the best goalie in the AHL, led the Checkers to the Calder Cup, and won a game in the NHL—DaveG has him behind Rees and Sellgren; geehead has Ned behind Mattheos. Yet you say I am wrong. I may well be.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Neither.

I gave this some thought.

• Tried to avoid recency bias. Admittedly, I may have overcompensated. But the Canes didn't draft any players who should make the team in the next two years. A lot can happen in two years, so I didn't rank any in the top 7.
• I only have one viewing of Kochetkov. That was the prospect scrimmage. He was good, but Makiniemi was better in that extremely limited sample. I don't have Makiniemi in the top 15. (Kochetkov gave up a goal on a shot where had a clear view of the shooter. The goal was glove side high.)
• Goalie stats out of Russia are regularly better than for Europe and NA. Based solely on sv% and GAA, Kochetkov is quite similar to Schmakov (a 7th rounder in 2018) and Tarasov (a 3rd rounder in 2017). I wouldn't rank either of those goalies a better prospect than the Canes top 15.
• I weighted my rankings to reflect how likely I think players are to make the Canes roster.

We all admit goalies are voodoo, so that lowers their ranking. Look, Ned has was deemed the best goalie in the AHL, led the Checkers to the Calder Cup, and won a game in the NHL—DaveG has him behind Rees and Sellgren; geehead has Ned behind Mattheos. Yet you say I am wrong. I may well be.

Setting the goalies aside, because I always struggle to place them as well, I guess this boils down to what criteria one uses to rank and we all do it differently.

I acknowledge my ranking is based on very limited information of each player, but my view is not to weigh "NHL readiness" as a much of a factor. For me, it's simply what do I think their ultimate potential is along with how likely are they to achieve it. Granted, NHL readiness can play into the "how likely to achieve it" aspect, but only so much. When Necas was drafted, I was sure he was at least 1 year and probably 2 away from the NHL, but still ranked him very highly because I thought (and still do) that he has a very high ceiling.

Same goes for Suzuki. He may be further away from the NHL, but I think he has higher potential and is more likely to achieve it than a lot of other guys that were drafted in prior years. Just because they are further along in the development cycle, doesn't make them a better prospect to me.

Of course, we will all be wrong in the end anyhow.

 

[A Star is Burns]

And never let a silly thing like not having seen someone play stop you from taking a strong stance and defending it to the death.

 

[DougieSmash]

so, posting my list which will inevitably be completely wrong by mid-season:

1 - Martin Necas
2 - Jake Bean
3 - Ryan Suzuki
4 - Morgan Geekie
5 - Jamieson Rees
6 - Jesper Sellgren
7 - Janne Kuokkanen
8 - Alex Nedeljkovic
9 - Pyotr Kochetkov
10 - Patrik Puistola
11 - Julien Gauthier
12 - Jack Drury
13 - Eetu Luostarinen
14 - Stelio Mattheos
15 - David Cotton

just missing: Anttoni Honka, Matt Filipe

Good list. Though Luostarinen is really underrated around here imo. He's safe pick.

 

[NotOpie]

I acknowledge my ranking is based on very limited information of each player, but my view is not to weigh "NHL readiness" as a much of a factor. For me, it's simply what do I think their ultimate potential is along with how likely are they to achieve it. Granted, NHL readiness can play into the "how likely to achieve it" aspect, but only so much. When Necas was drafted, I was sure he was at least 1 year and probably 2 away from the NHL, but still ranked him very highly because I thought (and still do) that he has a very high ceiling.

I'm the exact opposite, in that I THINK I'm including a factor for NHL readiness....and in my twisted logic I do so because anything can happen on that developmental path. So if a player is showing likelihood of making the show, I tend to factor that in. But I also hope that I try to weigh overall potential as a significant factor. Where I think we all tend to diverge is where on the scale a player falls.

Anyway, here's my travesty:

1. Martin Necas
2. Jake Bean
3. Alex Nedeljkovic
4. Janne Kuokkanen
5. Morgan Geekie
6. Ryan Suzuki
7. Julian Gauthier
8. Eetu Luostarinen
9. Jesper Sellgren
10. David Cotton
11. Stelio Mattheos
12. Matt Filipe
13. Pyotr Kotchetkov
14. Domenick Fensore
15. Jack Drury

HM1. Lenni Killinen
HM2. Jeremy Helvig
HM3. Jamieson Rees
HM4. Tuuka Tieksola
HM5. Patrik Puistola

 

[GoldiFox]

1 - Martin Necas
2 - Jamieson Rees
3 - Ryan Suzuki
4 - Morgan Geekie
5 - Pyotr Kochetkov
6 - Jake Bean
7 - Jesper Sellgren
8 - Alex Nedeljkovic
9 - Janne Kuokkanen
10 - Julien Gauthier
11 - Stelio Mattheos
12 - Patrik Puistola
13 - Antonni Honka
14 - Jack Drury
15 - Roland McKeown

Last year was light on top prospects to track outside the AHL. Now the Canes have 2 of the better players in the OHL (Suzuki/Rees) and a goalie on SKA St Petersburg.

 

[emptyNedder]

I acknowledge my ranking is based on very limited information of each player, but my view is not to weigh "NHL readiness" as a much of a factor. For me, it's simply what do I think their ultimate potential is along with how likely are they to achieve it.

I understand your logic. For me "readiness" implies that the prospect has continued to develop, or in many cases his development has allowed him to pass other prospects who were drafted higher because of potential. For example, I agree on Necas because of the potential but also because he progressed nicely in the AHL. Had Necas struggled, say put up only 20 points, he likely wouldn't be at the top of any or our lists.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I understand your logic. For me "readiness" implies that the prospect has continued to develop, or in many cases his development has allowed him to pass other prospects who were drafted higher because of potential. For example, I agree on Necas because of the potential but also because he progressed nicely in the AHL. Had Necas struggled, say put up only 20 points, he likely wouldn't be at the top of any or our lists.

yeah, but I wasn't talking about an extreme case of a guy regressing like that and my comment on Necas was meant to refer to ranking of him 2 years ago, not today. Let's take Kuokkanen for example. Do you think he has the same upside as Suzuki? Again, I don't know a ton about these prospects, but in his draft year, Suzuki put up 75 points in the OHL (65 games). In his draft+1 year, Kuokkanen put up 62 (60 games). I would think the general consensus among fans and media is that Suzuki has considerably higher upside than Kuokkanen.

I get that guys may not all develop so maybe Suzuki becomes Boychuk, but just because Kuokkanen has done "ok" in the AHL, doesn't move the needle for me to put him over a guy, just because the guy was only recently drafted.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that you are wrong in this, just clarifying that using different methodologies and criteria can lead to considerably different conclusions. And to be upfront, I don't view Kuokkanen as highly as many others do on this board. Every time I've seen him, I haven't been impressed. Hope I am wrong here.

 

[emptyNedder]

In his draft+1 year, Kuokkanen put up 62 (60 games). I would think the general consensus among fans and media is that Suzuki has considerably higher upside than Kuokkanen.

I get that guys may not all develop so maybe Suzuki becomes Boychuk, but just because Kuokkanen has done "ok" in the AHL, doesn't move the needle for me to put him over a guy, just because the guy was only recently drafted.

BBA. Again I see your logic—and admit it is perfectly sound.

As I said I think Koukkanen and Suzuki could be interchangeable on my list. But you are also correct that Suzuki could become Shinkaruk—a player who put up 91 and 86 points his D-1 and D years. And while it is second-hand, I have read questions about Suzuki's every shift commitment, which is a concern.

Kuokkanen was as productive and (to me at least) looked comparable to Necas in Charlotte last season. He was selected to the AHL all-star team. I have never seen/heard any comments about his effort. So I think more highly of him than many. Again it is because he seems to be developing.

Great discussion—makes the offseason more enjoyable.

 

[MinJaBen]

Here’s my list:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Clearly, it is an impressive group.

 

[NotOpie]

Here’s my list:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Clearly, it is an impressive group.

Seems like a lot of interchangeability. Basically any of these guys could slot in anywhere on this ranking.

 

[Lempo]

Here’s my list:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Clearly, it is an impressive group.

I have problem with this order.

 

[DaveG]

HMs and 20-16 announced:

16 - RHD Luke Martin - 2017 2nd round, 52 OA
17 - C David Cotton - 2015 6th round, 169 OA
18 - RHD Anttoni Honka - 2019 3rd round, 83 OA
19 - C Clark Bishop - 2014 5th round, 127 OA
20 - G Jeremy Helvig - 2016 5th round, 134 OA
20 - RHD Alex Lintuniemi - 2019 UFA signing (drafted LAK 2nd 2014, 60 OA)
HMs:
RW Spencer Smallman - 2015 5th round, 138 OA
LW/RW Matt Filipe - 2016 3rd round, 67 OA
RW Tuukka Tieksola - 2019 4th round, 121 OA
LHD Domenick Fensore - 2019 3rd round, 90 OA
G Callum Booth - 2015 4th round, 93 OA
LHD Cade Webber - 2019 4th round, 99 OA

 

[My Special Purpose]

HMs and 20-16 announced:

16 - RHD Luke Martin - 2017 2nd round, 52 OA
17 - C David Cotton - 2015 6th round, 169 OA
18 - RHD Anttoni Honka - 2019 3rd round, 83 OA
19 - C Clark Bishop - 2014 5th round, 127 OA
20 - G Jeremy Helvig - 2016 5th round, 134 OA
20 - RHD Alex Lintuniemi - 2019 UFA signing (drafted LAK 2nd 2014, 60 OA)
HMs:
RW Spencer Smallman - 2015 5th round, 138 OA
LW/RW Matt Filipe - 2016 3rd round, 67 OA
RW Tuukka Tieksola - 2019 4th round, 121 OA
LHD Domenick Fensore - 2019 3rd round, 90 OA
G Callum Booth - 2015 4th round, 93 OA
LHD Cade Webber - 2019 4th round, 99 OA

OK, so I guess there were bound to be some weird things happen at the cutoff when only 15 guys get ranking points, but how in heaven's name Alex Lintuniemi got more votes than Domenick Fensore is beyond standard "weird." I had Fensore at No. 16 (so no points), but Lintuniemi (and Bishop, who's *upside* is a fill-in No. 4 center) were chopped from my list way before Fensore.

 

[DaveG]

OK, so I guess there were bound to be some weird things happen at the cutoff when only 15 guys get ranking points, but how in heaven's name Alex Lintuniemi got more votes than Domenick Fensore is beyond standard "weird." I had Fensore at No. 16 (so no points), but Lintuniemi (and Bishop, who's *upside* is a fill-in No. 4 center) were chopped from my list way before Fensore.

You're on the same page as me for that pick. I know some people value how close the player is to the NHL more than I do when looking at this sort of thing (I tend to use it as a tiebreaker) but even then he didn't really register for me.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Cool , we’re already arguing our 16th through 20th prospects when we only vote top 15.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Cool , we’re already arguing our 16th through 20th prospects when we only vote top 15.

It’s july. What else are we gonna do?