[Yikes, this came out way longer than I had wanted, bear with me here, sorry!]
I'm not sure why "since January" is the correct window to evaluate. You could just as easily take our most recent games from the past month (Feb), or the games since the trade deadline (reflecting the roster changes), perhaps even just a couple weeks ago when Murray added Sekac. Seems arbitrary to me.
IMO, our offense is not as successful as it looks on paper. You can hang your hat on that GPG-since-January number, which is fine, but I would disagree on the effectiveness of our offense and the nature of our goal scoring. Look back at our recent games against other top teams, and you'll see that we are in fact struggling to score enough against those teams. We are scoring 1-2 goals and struggling to establish any sort of sustained pressure throughout those games. Not only are we not creating off the rush, but we are not generating enough in the way of scrappy goals when dumping and trying to cycle/muck around deep in the o-zone. Too many of our goals are coming from late game (3rd period) pushes when the other team is sitting on a lead and goes into a defensive shell. Recent games against LA and Detroit look nice in that GPG stat, but all of our goals (3 vs Det, 4 vs LA) came in the 3rd period blitz.
To me, it would appear that for all of our good effort in games, often carrying the play and generating many scoring chances, we still struggle too much to capitalize earlier in games when we can take control, and rely too much on the other team letting off the gas with a lead and allowing us to stage a comeback. Generating scoring chances and having the ability to finish them are two different skills, and our team has tons of the former and not nearly enough of the latter IMO. We are a scrappy offensive team, but not polished enough for the playoffs when those scoring chances are fewer and far between.
The game absolutely does change in the playoffs, I don't get why people keep saying otherwise. Games are rarely as wide open as we see in the regular season, the checking is tighter and there is less space. This is why teams that play a wide open style and kill it in the regular season often fall short, especially the deeper you go into the playoffs. We see this every season. I'm really hoping this plays into our favor as we tend to generate more chances cycling and forechecking than we do the end-to-end style we played last season.
But to your point, if the game wasn't different in the playoffs, then Murray has lost his marbles making so many changes to the team for that single purpose. He said our #1 position in the league, maintained nearly all season long through all sorts of adversity, was "smoke and mirrors" heading into the deadline. He felt that we weren't as good as we appeared on paper. Obviously he thinks it changes as wel, and I'm simply saying as much here in regards to our offense.
While I agree with you on those areas, I still think goal scoring was an issue in that series. LA was a low-scoring team that entire season (26th in the league) and grinding out low-scoring games was bread and butter for them. That wasn't our game, we were going to win with rolling lines and waves of offense, which to me was never a great formula for playoff success. And while the series had tons of luck and close calls just like every series, our inability to generate that same sort of offensive game allowed LA to play more within their comfort zone than the Ducks. So while many feel the Ducks beat themselves at the end, I feel as if it was apparent that LA was slowly taking over the series and the conclusion wasn't surprising.
Agreed! But as I said, I don't like assuming that they are somehow holding back right now just waiting to hit some sort of magic switch. There's no saying that they will (unless you have a crystal ball
), and based on this statement you sound as if you agree with me that the rest of this lot aren't going to be able to carry the team offensively if the twins
don't rise to the occasion. I won't put words in your mouth, it just reads that way to me.
Again, why since January? Vats returning certainly won't hurt, but he and Wiz seem redundant, both manning the right-hand point on the top unit.
I dunno, our special teams lack consistency, I feel that at best they are not holding us back, but far too often it is a source of frustration. I don't see special teams being a strength that this team can rely on.
My entire post sounds negative, so I want to reiterate that I do like our chances going forward, this isn't a year that we need to be a powerhouse team as there doesn't seem to really be one in the NHL (reminds me of the 2012 playoffs). I don't think this team has many holes, we are also loaded with potential, so if offense is one of my main concerns and that is arguably not a real concern at all (to others), then I guess it is sort of a back-handed compliment to the team and their chances.
