Comparison of 2019 project to 2008 project through 49 picks
I'll probably do a more in-depth review once the project is complete, but we're now (nearly) at the halfway point. I compared our results to our original list from 2008 (the 2009 project was abandoned partway).
Significant individual changes
So far we've had seven players jump 10+ spots:
- Sidney Crosby (NR to 12th) - he had just started his career when we did the project more than a decade ago, but has firmly established himself as one of the greatest players of all-time.
- Alex Ovechkin (NR to 22th) - same as Crosby.
- Frank Nighbor (+75, from 95th to 20th) - new evidence obtained over the past decade shows that he was regarded as the best forward of his era (assuming Morenz is part of the next generation), and was an elite defensive forward.
- Sergei Makarov (+51, from 77th to 26th) - new research uncovered his consistently excellent performance in the scoring race and MVP voting in the Soviet leagues; less style but more substance than Valeri Kharlamov (see below).
- Frank Boucher (+17, from 59th to 42nd) - both Boucher and his longtime linemate Bill Cook (up nine spots) are ranked higher now - possibly because we're giving more credit to their time in other pre-consolidation professional leagues?
- Nicklas Lidstrom (+11, from 26th to 15th) - since he was voted in (April 2008), Lidstrom added two more Norris trophies and two deep playoff runs.
- Viacheslav Fetisov (+10, from 35th to 25th) - similar to Makarov, we now have more detailed information about how he was regarded in the Soviet league, which shows how far above his peers he stood.
Other risers include Patrick Roy, Jaromir Jagr, King Clancy and the aforementioned Bill Cook (all +9), and Cyclone Taylor and Henri Richard (both +8).
We've had five players drop 10+ spots:
- Terry Sawchuk (-16, from 19th to 35th) - we don't really have any new information about Sawchuk, but many people criticized him for not accomplishing a whole lot after his dominant first five years.
- Ted Lindsay (-15, from 23rd to 38th) - again, not much new has been uncovered, but people are taking a more critical look at how much he benefited late in his career by playing with Howe. Also, in 2008, Lindsay had a good argument for being the 2nd best left-winger in NHL history. Him being clearly passed by Ovechkin probably hurts.
- Valeri Kharlmov (-13, from 30th to 43rd) - Kharlamov was an exceptionally skilled, almost artistic player, but the now-uncovered data from the Soviet leagues was somewhat disappointing.
- Newsly Lalone (-10, from 29th to 39th). I wouldn't say that there's been a lot of new evidence against Lalonde, but he's fallen because several of his peers (Taylor, Cook and Nighbor) have jumped significantly. I think his decrease corrected where he should have been ranked among the top players born in the late 19th century. Last time we had him clearly first; now he's 4th, which I think is more accurate based on what we know today.
- Stan Mikita (-10, from 14th to 24th). Several reasons for his drop. Some of the decrease is due to us taking a closer (and harsher) look at his playoff resume; some is due to him being passed by a similar (but superior) player in Crosby; some is because we've taken a dimmer view on his longevity (never a top ten scorer in his thirties); and some is due to placing more emphasis on the fact that, at the time, it was a near-consensus that Hull was the better player.
Three more players are going to drop at least 10 spots by virtue of not yet being ranked on our list. Milt Schmidt was 31st last time, so he's going to fall at least 19 spots - people are questioning how "thin" his resume is, with a few elite seasons and lots of inconsistent ones. Bernie Geoffrion was ranked 39th previously, so he's going to drop at least 11 spots. He's dropping due to relatively poor two-way play, and questions about how important he was to such a strong team. Bill Durnan was 44th last time, and isn't even up for voting yet, so his best possible finish is 55th, which is an 11 spot drop - perhaps due to a significant part of his short career taking place during the talent-depleted WWII era?
Other players with large falls include Mike Bossy and Ken Dryden (9 spots each), and Guy Lafleur (8 spots).
Only three players have stayed in the same spots - Wayne Gretzky remained in 1st, Mario Lemieux in 4th, and Bobby Hull in 5th.
General trends
Overall, this project (so far) is harsher on players from the first sixty years of NHL history. Of the 27 players born between 1902 and and 1957 currently on the current list, 17 of them have dropped by at least three spots, and 24 of them have risen by no more than one spot, or fallen (an average decrease of nearly six positions for these 24 players). This doesn't include players who aren't yet on our list, but we know will fall significantly (such as Schmidt, Geoffrion, and Durnan). One of the few exceptions in this category, Henri Richard, has a very clear reason for his increase (newly uncovered data showed that he was an elite ES scorer and received relatively little PP TOI).
The breakdown by positions is fairly similar through the first forty-nine spots. This project has 17 centers, 13 defensemen, 7 goalies, 7 RWs, 4 LWs, and 1 rover. (I'm counting Kelly as D, Messier as C, Ovechkin as LW, and Taylor as rover). The previous project had 16 centers, 12 defensemen, 8 goalies, 8 RWs, 4 LWs, and 1 rover - a change of no more than one player at each position.
Finally, in terms of nationality - so far our project has 41 Canadians, 4 Russians, 2 Czechs, 1 Swede, and 1 American. This is more multicultural than last time - there were 43 Canadians, 2 Russians, 2 Czechs, 1 Swede, and 1 American. At a first glance, that doesn't sound like much (two Canucks traded for two Russians). But last time, there were only two non-Canadians in the top 25 (with one also ranked 26th); this time, we have five in our top 25 (again, with one more ranked 26th).