Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time - Round 2, Vote 1

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yeah i was going to make a similar post. First goal is important - let's not pretend it's useless - but it's such a small component and we shouldn't give it too much importance. If you truly want to break down the value of offense contributed vs offense compiling, the type of data that needs to be shown is:

- Goals and assists on goals when the game is tied (0-0 or other) (valuable offense). When your team is behind by 1, or ahead by 1 (valuable offense). vs when your team is behind by 2, or ahead by 2 or more (compiling).

I don't know that there's anyway to really collect such data. Actually scoring just the first goal is a very small subsection of that.


Team results,Oilers vs Flyers and dynasty Oilers vs 1956-60 dynasty Canadiens including border seasons in all instances do not support your clutching at scores.

Reduced to basics, Oilers did not win nearly as much as the alleged individual Gretzky dominance view pretends.
 
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How many assists on first goals did Gretzky have?

To me, that’s a key one. I can see both sides on the subject of setting the tone or the relative value of the 1st goal in the eras in which it is recorded, so those are going to up to the reviewer to assign value, but not knowing if Gretzky is abnormally on the playmaking side of 1st Goals to make up for not being on the finishing side is more than just a missing puzzle piece, but rather half of the puzzle. It’s like when we counted playoff OT scoring last year - some players who didn’t score a whole lot of playoff OT goals were still recording assists on them.
 
It's not about a stat sheet. It's about what each player did. Orr being "better" is only relevant if you can show how his 8 years is "better" than Gretzky's 15+ years. And i'm not saying you can't or it's impossible - but that should be the method or thought process behind it. It shouldn't be about just declaring he's "better" and so ranks above - which is exactly what you seem to be hinting at. If a "lesser" player accomplishes so much more than a slightly better one - at some point it should be enough to overtake that player.

Also - Orr being "better" than Gretzky is one thing - but was he as consistent year to year? Gretzky's consistency in his prime is staggering. I'm not saying Orr was inconsistent - but his playoffs for one aren't as impressive year over year.





I mean these 2 posts are pretty arrogant. I show data to show how greatly both Gretzky and Lemieux dominated their peers offensively - and your counter as to why Orr and Howe make up that gap is "come on - they're Orr and Howe".

I want to be very open minded in this vote. I'm someone whose always valued offense VERY highly - and I admit i get wow'd by it a bit too much at times maybe. But to me - Gretzky and Lemieux's level of offensive domination is on a whole other level than Howe. Howe is closer to Beliveau territory.

What brings Howe up to the level of Gretzky and Lemieux? Is it solely longevity? A lot of claims in the past were done about Howe's offense being close to the level of 99 and 66 and i don't see it at all.

While failing to define or differentiate consistency.

Orr consistently produced results while Gretzky consistently piled on.
 
To me, that’s a key one. I can see both sides on the subject of setting the tone or the relative value of the 1st goal in the eras in which it is recorded, so those are going to up to the reviewer to assign value, but not knowing if Gretzky is abnormally on the playmaking side of 1st Goals to make up for not being on the finishing side is more than just a missing puzzle piece, but rather half of the puzzle. It’s like when we counted playoff OT scoring last year - some players who didn’t score a whole lot of playoff OT goals were still recording assists on them.

Have a look at the team RS numbers:

Oilers

NHL.com - Stats

Canadiens 1956 to 1960 dynasty

NHL.com - Stats
 
To me, that’s a key one. I can see both sides on the subject of setting the tone or the relative value of the 1st goal in the eras in which it is recorded, so those are going to up to the reviewer to assign value, but not knowing if Gretzky is abnormally on the playmaking side of 1st Goals to make up for not being on the finishing side is more than just a missing puzzle piece, but rather half of the puzzle. It’s like when we counted playoff OT scoring last year - some players who didn’t score a whole lot of playoff OT goals were still recording assists on them.

Did we ask which players were on the ice for playoff OT goals against?
 
Have a look at the team RS numbers:

Oilers

NHL.com - Stats

Canadiens 1956 to 1960 dynasty

NHL.com - Stats

I think Montreal Canadien's dynasty reliance on scoring first to win games is countered by Edmonton's oilers propensity to win games even when not scoring first.

815% wins when Habs score first, 424% win when opponents score first - if you add the two up 1239.
777% wins when Oilers score first, 477% wins when opponents score first - if you add the two up, 1254.

Not much difference.

Also - how this ties in to Gretzky/Howe/Lemieux/Orr specifically is beyond me. The connection there is tiny at best - especially if you can't show statistics about Assists and not just goals - let alone the fact that we're only looking at first goal, and not contributions to tying goals and other critical goals too in a game too.
 
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I think Montreal Canadien's dynasty reliance on scoring first to win games is countered by Edmonton's oilers propensity to win games even when not scoring first.

815% wins when Habs score first, 424% win when opponents score first - if you add the two up 1239.
777% wins when Oilers score first, 477% wins when opponents score first - if you add the two up, 1254.


Not much difference.

Also - how this ties in to Gretzky/Howe/Lemieux/Orr specifically is beyond me. The connection there is tiny at best - especially if you can't show statistics about Assists and not just goals - let alone the fact that we're only looking at first goal, and not contributions to tying goals and other critical goals too in a game too.

Its about Beliveau and Gretzky.

Wonky math at its best.
 
Its about Beliveau and Gretzky.

Wonky math at its best.

Are you able to state an opinion/argument in full - assuming you have one - on the topic?

How do you view Beliveau vs Gretzky? Unless you're just presenting various data and still working on your opinion/argument once it's all there, which is fine.

But are you trying to claim that due to data like this (win% and contribution to first goals) Beliveau should rank above Gretzky?

Your posts are always too short. You should dumb things down more and explain in-depth what you're saying - it would make for a lot more valuable exchanges I feel.

Regarding my wonky math - I agree, it absolutely is. But it's just as wonky to tie too much importance to the value of the first goal, which is what it was meant to show. If a team is able to come back from not scoring a first goal that much more often (Oilers) - it negates somewhat the value of it, and evens out, sorta.
 
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Did we ask which players were on the ice for playoff OT goals against?

Hard to track. I feel like NHL.com used to have it in a play-by-play game report, with the players listed by jersey number, but I don’t know that they still have that report after the website redesign.

There’s basically an ocean of information for playoff OT that is still under explored. If I disappear for a year, just know that I’m in scuba gear.
 
Capsule summary pros and cons about the Big 4.Not exhaustive, additions and corrections are welcomed.

Wayne Gretzky


Pros
  • Shattered the record book
  • Greatest offensive player of all-time
  • Greatest playmaker of all-time by far; highest hockey IQ (offensively speaking)
  • Top player on a dynasty (same as Howe)
  • Arguably had the highest peak of all-time (with Orr as competition)
  • After Howe, had the best longevity in that group
  • Probably the biggest star power in hockey history
Cons
  • Poor defensive play
  • Total lack of physicality; some say he was protected like no other player - i.e. the ''can't hit Gretzky'' rule
  • Came close, but never won outside the dynasty years, whereas the dynasty continued without him (but he did win on the International stage, and this con doesn't favor any of the other Big 4)
Gordie Howe

Pros
  • Toughest player in the group
  • All-around player; greatest powerforward of all-time
  • Top player on a dynasty (same as Gretzky)
  • Greatest longevity of all-time
Cons
  • While his peak is underrated by many, there's still a sense that Howe was the least talented of the Big 4 (at least in terms of skills and finesse)
Bobby Orr

Pros
  • Greatest skater in hockey history
  • Dominated his position like no one else
  • Had no weakness; the perfect hockey player
  • Only defenseman to win a scoring title (he won two)
  • Dominated the play at both ends to an unprecedented level
  • Arguably had the highest peak of all-time (with Gretzky as competition)
  • Best PPQB of all-time (in competition for best PP player with Lemieux)
Cons
  • Knee injuries prematurely put a stop to his career - no longevity
  • Some would say Boston should have won more cups
Mario Lemieux

Pros
  • Arguably the most visually dominant player of all-time; best 1-on-1 player
  • Probably the best goalscorer in that group
  • Combination of size and skills is unique
  • Best PP forward of all-time (in competition with Orr for best PP player)
  • Had a flair for the dramatic; the king of come backs and highlights
  • Faced more obstacles; learning new language, injuries, cancer
Cons
  • Compares unfavorably to Gretzky on most offensive metrics
  • Injury-prone
  • His determination and seriousness were questioned in youth
  • Poor defensive play
  • Some would say Pittsburgh should have won more cups
Really good capsules. Bang-on with Orr. My only comments would be that you undersell Gordie's offensive abilities. He scored a ton of goals and was a fine playmaker as well. He has an unofficial 50 goal season (the season he scored 49, he mentioned that he had another goal awarded to a teammate, but back then nobody cared much since Gordie scored so much anyways).
 
Peak and prime aren't the same. Peak is a player at his very best - prime is the totality of the player's career before there's a decline (or after he takes a year or more to get acclimated to league and reach a strong level).

Lemieux's prime for example - i'd argue didn't start until his 3rd or 4th season, and likely ends in 97, or possibly 2001. Gretzky and Orr (and Crosby when he comes up - Bourque too) are a bit particular in that they were so consistent in their prime you can almost make the claim you're asking about in equating their prime and peak. But I still think we should differentiate.

Gretzky's peak - his best 1, or 3 seasons, or however many you feel are close enough together to be grouped as his very best. The level of peak is important, but length too. This isn't exact science, but if I had to make a quick guess i'd say:

Orr's peak 1969-1970 to 1974-75 (6 seasons) and Gretzky's peak from 1980-81 to 1987-88 (8 seasons).
Prime Orr is 1967-68 to 1974-75 (8 seasons) and Gretzky prime is 1979-80 to 1993-94 (15 seasons).

Peak:

I'd love for more people to compare the two in-depth. I think for peak Orr absolutely has a case at #1 - although at first glance I still favor Gretzky (I value offense very highly myself). I understand that Defenders win Harts less - but it's also hard to deny the fact that Gretzky won the hart 7 years in a row here. Also 8 seasons to 6 - and technically we could probably extent Gretzky's peak by a year or three if we wanted to.

Prime:

15 seasons to 8. Their peaks are close maybe - but Gretzky did it for much longer. We have to be fair and i don't see anyway to give this to Orr. 8 seasons of Orr is not better than 15 of Gretzky - he's not twice as good/valuable. Gretzky was also more consistent - even in his 8 seasons, although he won the Norris each time, Orr contributed offensively "greatly" in only 6 of those. Gretzky was a machine of offensive consistency - and he MADE his teammates better. He elevated so many people on the Oilers - moreso than Orr (who helped Esposito greatly - but this was a 2 way street imo).

Career:

As you say - a default win by Gretzky. Orr unfortunately has nothing outside of his prime - and Gretzky gets bonus points for everything he did outside of his prime.

Playoffs:

It's not about revisionist history when I say Gretzky should have won 5 smythes. He has 5 all-time great playoff runs (at least) in Edmonton - smythe or no smythe. I'm not saying he was robbed and should have more smythes and so we should count them - i am simply matching up runs between Gretzky to Orr. If you match up best to best - Gretzky ends up easily ahead. As "great" runs Gretzky has 83, 84, 85, 87. 88, 93. That's 6. He then also has many very strong ones to complement those 6. Again by sheer volume alone Gretzky easily bests Orr here. I also think Gretzky's very best runs are better than Orr's best runs (smythe vs smythe) - so it's not like Orr takes him over in quality. Even if you think he did though - sheer volume alone easily puts Gretzky at #1.

International Play:

Gretzky wins here. I'm firmly in the camp that you can't penalize a player for more opportunity. Example - when we compare Gretzky to Lemieux playoffs - you can't just pick the best 5-6 playoffs and argue "well Lemieux didn't make the playoffs in the 80s so let's not count 6 of Gretzky's runs either". Gretzky had more opportunities is a net positive for him and too bad for Lemieux. Same for Orr in international play (and this likely comes up a lot with players of past eras too with less international competition). It's not like International play has to be a hugely important component - but Gretzky is arguably the best international performer of all time, and it should count. Orr did good - but doesn't stack up to Gretzky's resume.


Norris's. I did not "discount" Norris for what it's worth. In my first post (and I get now i didn't actually write this - i just counted it in my head) I was thinking Gretzky has 2 big regular season trophies to go after (Ross + Hart) and Orr did too (Norris + Hart). So I was equating Gretzky's Ross to Orr's Norrises. Not an exact science - but just a way to quickly compare regular season accolades (and yes Orr's 2 Ross are extremely special and he can get bonus points for those). So no we're not disqualifying Norris trophies nor International play nor anything else, nor should we.

Complete Game:

I'm not saying complete game isn't very important - i just don't view it as a category of its own - but rather a component of each of the above categories. ie - counter my argument about me saying Gretzky > Orr for peak by showing that no - Orr > Gretzky for peak because Orr's complete game was enough to overcome the gap in peaks (6 to 8 seasons, offensive gap, and everything else included). Same idea for prime and anything else.
It's just like i'm not considering goal-scoring, or playmaking, or other elements as categories, but rather as components of the above categories (playoffs, peak, prime, career, international).

Now if you want to break up each category above (peak/prime/career/international/playoffs) into sub categories of goal scoring, complete game, playmaking, defense, etc - that's fine we can do that. I was lumping it all at once, just to do a quick calculation.

Finally Count:

Gretzky gets the edge in Playoffs, International, Career and prime.

Peak - open (i personally say Gretzky - but this one is closer).

Not all 5 categories are worth the same. So you might say peak is most important to you and give it 50% importance in your overall assessment of final ranking - but still considering Gretzky is ahead in the other 4 categories, and at the very least should be quite close in peak - I have trouble finding a way to not have him comfortably at #1 - at least when compared to Orr.
I don't see how you can dismiss "Complete Game" since it's really easy to see just how important it is. You're stacking the deck in your favour when you take that out of the equation. On a related note, you don't address Orr's accomplishments from the defense position. That is a HUGE aspect of what made him great. The athletics required to do what he did as a d-man (not just offense, but he was the best defensive defenseman of this day) cannot be understated. It was already posted how he scored 76 points more than the next highest scoring d-man twice, and how he had six consecutive 100 point seasons (some among the highest in history up to that point) is mind blowing.

I guess it comes down to what impresses someone more. Both players didn't seem like they were from this world. What Orr did as a complete d-man impressed me more than what Gretzky did as an offense-only player.

I'll be the first to admit that Gretzky did so much more than his peers with so much less individually (he was physically weak, an average skater and avoided physical contact like the plague, but he showed just how crucial "hockey sense", or vision, is to the game... he also had an underrated shot.) That in of itself I find amazing and is a feather in the cap to Wayne.

Orr looked and played like a man among boys. His talent was obvious. His power was obvious. The results were almost predictable.

I give Orr the advantage by decimal points. And I find a well researched argument tainted (and I'm using very respectful language here) by any claim that Gretzky is "clearly" ahead of Orr.

For the record, I don't have Gordie that far behind either. And even Lemieux has been vastly underrated by some of the posts I've read, despite being a consensus top 4. I have him fourth, but he is also not as far behind in my mind as some may have him.
 
Origins and provenance of the competition. Two way street.

What's this supposed to mean? And how is it relevant in what context? Unless we're supposed to value players junior careers as a part of the final package, I don't really see the point in dwelling much in the topic.
 
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I'd combine international play with playoffs (otherwise too much weight is being placed on tournaments). But I agree - if you treat this as four categories, Gretzky is clearly ahead two of them (career, playoffs/international), and solidly ahead in a third (prime). I'm in the "Orr had the higher peak" camp, but it wasn't by a large margin - not anywhere close enough to make up for Gretzky's advantages in the other categories.
The deck is stacked with these limiting categories. It does not take into account the incredible offense Orr achieved from the defense position (which, for me, trumps the incredible numbers Gretzky had as a centre), nor does it take into account that Orr was also the best defensive d-man in the game at the same time. Even if you dispute that he was the absolute best defensive d-man as well, the fact that him even being in the conversation, along with his mind-boggling offense, gives him massive points in this debate).

...and for those who think that hitting and fighting are/were important, well Orr had that as well.
 
What's this supposed to mean? And how is it relevant in what context? Unless we're supposed to value players junior careers as a part of the final package, I don't really see the point in dwelling much in the topic.

So do not dwell on it.

Basically means that the junior preparation determines how NHL ready a player is.

Lack of defensive preparation in junior in Gretzky's and Lemieux's era produced offensive anomalies in the NHL.
 
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Gretzky played in the most diluted era of the NHL, poat NHL/WHA consolidation.
I tend to agree with this. By a significant portion. Even though the league doubled in size in '67, it was at the point where the so-called minor leagues were bursting at the seams with NHL-calibre players who couldn't find room on only six teams.

If anything, that fact builds the case for Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita, who did so well in the much more competitive 1960's.
 
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Are you able to state an opinion/argument in full - assuming you have one - on the topic?

How do you view Beliveau vs Gretzky? Unless you're just presenting various data and still working on your opinion/argument once it's all there, which is fine.

But are you trying to claim that due to data like this (win% and contribution to first goals) Beliveau should rank above Gretzky?

Your posts are always too short. You should dumb things down more and explain in-depth what you're saying - it would make for a lot more valuable exchanges I feel.

Regarding my wonky math - I agree, it absolutely is. But it's just as wonky to tie too much importance to the value of the first goal, which is what it was meant to show. If a team is able to come back from not scoring a first goal that much more often (Oilers) - it negates somewhat the value of it, and evens out, sorta.

Others complain my posts are too long, too detailed.
 
So do not dwell on it.

Basically means that the junior preparation determines how NHL ready a player is.

Lack of defensive preparation in junior in Gretzky's and Lemieux's era produced offensive anomalies in the NHL.

I've always wondered, if any, how much the league itself pushed the offensive onslaught. I mean why would the NHL WANT a league that resembled the dead puck era when you had offensive wonders like 99 and 66. And then you had the lockout in the mid 90's and the pendulum slid towards clutch and grab, goalies started getting huge equipment and scoring plummeted.
 
I don't see how you can dismiss "Complete Game" since it's really easy to see just how important it is. You're stacking the deck in your favour when you take that out of the equation. On a related note, you don't address Orr's accomplishments from the defense position. That is a HUGE aspect of what made him great.

I feel like you're completely missing the point. I'm not dismissing anything.

When I compare peak - it includes everything a player did in his peak to the other player's peak. So it includes complete game (and goal scoring, and playmaking, and other individual skills/talents). Same for the other categories. In my anlysis I'm saying that taking all of those aspects into account - I give Gretzky the edge in 4 of the categories due to the breakdowns I did in my previous post. Peak too - but i think that one is closer.

Now are you saying that Orr's defensive ability (or complete game) was enough of a difference maker to make either of his peak, prime, playoffs better overall than Gretzky's? I'd love to hear the argument of breakdown as to how if so to counter my earlier post.
 
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I feel like you're completely missing the point. I'm not dismissing anything.

When I compare peak - it includes everything a player did in his peak to the other player's peak. So it includes complete game (and goal scoring, and playmaking, and other individual skills/talents). Same for the other categories. In my anlysis I'm saying that taking all of those aspects into account - I give Gretzky the edge in 4 of the categories due to the breakdowns I did in my previous post. Peak too - but i think that one is closer.

Now are you saying that Orr's defensive ability (or complete game) was enough of a difference maker to make either of his peak, prime, playoffs better overall than Gretzky's? I'd love to hear the argument of breakdown as to how if so to counter my earlier post.
Then perhaps we should say "peak" is worth significantly more than combining some of the other categories you created (maybe all of them). You alluded to some categories being worth more than others, but not really to what extent. And if you are including "complete" game along with raw stats, I would give "peak" to Orr by a wider margin that you're giving it to Gretzky.

There is clearly still a lot of subjectivity here, especially since we're now scoring how many categories one player has over another. I think what we have here are two different paradigms/models... I give Orr more credit because of his incredible domination from the d-position, while you give Gretzky more credit for his numbers in general. We sprinkle in other factoids and points (international play, playoffs, toughness, etc.) but when you get right down to it, one of us is coming from one paradigm while another is coming from a different point of view.
 
Intuitively, not as many as Beliveau since the Oiler core 5 did not score as many first goals as the Canadiens core 5.

Define shortly after?

Bolded. How about after 2 periods after giving up the first goal?

Finally, the key point. The Flyers, without any SC success had a better RS record(more wins) than the Oilers with Gretzky:

NHL.com - Stats

Canadiens in the time frame dominated. 86 more wins than 2nd best.

NHL.com - Stats

Since Gretzky had more than twice as many assists than goals, and 2.75 times as many assists as Beliveau , I doubt that Beliveau had more.

Expansion Oilers vs Presidents Trophy winning Flyers in 1979-80 puts the Flyers 20 wins ahead from the start.

Difference in schedules makes the eras hard to compare. Detroit played Montreal 14 times a year, while Edmonton played the Flyers 4 times or less.
 
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I'm a person who's changed his outlook on strength of opposition.

There is zero doubt in my mind that the Jean Beliveau's of the world were facing much tougher comp on a weekly basis then somebody like Gretzky. Far more teams to pile on from the 70's onward.
 
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I'm a person who's changed his outlook on strength of opposition.

There is zero doubt in my mind that the Jean Beliveau's of the world were facing much tougher comp on a weekly basis then somebody like Gretzky. Far more teams to pile on from the 70's onward.
So with five other teams, obviously talent is more concentrated. But it's not necessarily spread evenly. So for every Red wings theres a Rangers team you play 18 times.

But generally, yeah. O6 was tougher comp. But I think on here we are pretty good at contextualizing the offensive numbers from the expansion era. Most dont put Gretzky scoring 200 as their reason for putting him high, but rather Gretzky outscoring his nearest competitors by xx%.
 
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