Confirmed with Link: Tomas Hertl 17% retained, 2025 3rd, 2027 3rd to Vegas for C David Edstrom, 2025 1st

[STL Shark]

Someone posted our Cup finals lineup and I was struck by how not impressive our bottom 6 was. James Sheppard as a 3C?

That was often the issue with DW teams, and if Edstrom and Bystedt hit their projection, a Bystedt - Edstrom - Zetterlund 3rd line would be an absolute beast to contend with. With Celebrini as your 1C and Smith as your 2C, that’s not a bad start to a lineup.

So yeah, I dig the pick up. I also like that Edstrom has improved a lot this year - that bodes well too (now we need Bystedt to re-find his game a little).

Obligatory "Who the F is James Sheppard?" for the old FTF crew from before the place sucked.

I agree though that it took DW forever to find out that you needed good depth players rather than just a top 6 to win come playoff time. Part of what made 2016 remarkable was we had Tierney and Spaling as our 3C and 4C and made a run. Speaks to just how good Burns, Couture, Pavs, and Jumbo were in those playoffs that we advanced in a bunch of 7 gamers with a pretty suboptimal bottom 6 (and rolled basically only 3 lines in the second half of any close game). 2019 finally had a roster with superb depth, but injuries just took too much of a toll (along with subpar goaltending) to make it work.

My hope from here is that we can put together a top 6 with Eklund, Musty, Smith, Celebrini, and a UFA/Trade guy or two. Let the bottom 6 morph into guys like Bystedt, Zetterlund, Edstrom, Lund, Halttunen, etc. that are big/strong, fast in the north-south game and still have skill to the point that they can balance out the scoring and/or play complimentary roles in the top 6 when injuries inevitably happen. I have basically no concern about the forward group going forward (think we have enough to get 6-8 homegrown regular NHLers and then can add via trade/UFA from there).

Concern for the near and long-term of the org is almost entirely on the backend with both the defense and the goaltending. Much harder to find the top end guys back there and also typically takes longer to develop them. So that will probably be the most limiting factor to the rebuild until we find answers.

 

[Jargon]

Sheppard wasn't on the team in 2016 but overall that was kind of a fluke run with a solid but unspectacular lineup. Instead of realizing it was one final high note at the end of a decade long contention window, DW spent the next 2 years trading four first round picks and handing out a half dozen max term contracts to 30 year olds in a desperate attempt to win with an over the hill core.

Hrm, maybe that was another year then yeah.

I mean, I think the conference finals run could’ve been successful if we had a more consistent goalie and the refs didn’t decide to put away their whistles when the Blues headshot like 3 of our stars.

I don’t necessarily blame the chase after the Cup run. I will say, just watching all of that happen in hindsight — and seeing teams like the Penguins now — there’s this really delicate time for teams where your stars are good but not as good and the best move is to trade them while they have value and reboot on the fly. The problem is, the prime moment you should will never feel right to the fans or owners, so you end up having an old lineup and virtually no prospects. It’s tricky.

Anyway, I’m hopeful for what we’re building now.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Sheppard wasn't on the team in 2016 but overall that was kind of a fluke run with a solid but unspectacular lineup. Instead of realizing it was one final high note at the end of a decade long contention window, DW spent the next 2 years trading four first round picks and handing out a half dozen max term contracts to 30 year olds in a desperate attempt to win with an over the hill core.

Our 2016 3C was Chris Tierney if I'm not mistaken. When everyone was healthy, he was flanked by at least one of Ward or Donskoi and then by Nieto or Melker. When Hertl went down, they didn't do enough to help that Tierney line and Thornton's line couldn't do enough either and they were getting outplayed massively as a result.

 

[Jargon]

Obligatory "Who the F is James Sheppard?" for the old FTF crew from before the place sucked.

I agree though that it took DW forever to find out that you needed good depth players rather than just a top 6 to win come playoff time. Part of what made 2016 remarkable was we had Tierney and Spaling as our 3C and 4C and made a run. Speaks to just how good Burns, Couture, Pavs, and Jumbo were in those playoffs that we advanced in a bunch of 7 gamers with a pretty suboptimal bottom 6 (and rolled basically only 3 lines in the second half of any close game). 2019 finally had a roster with superb depth, but injuries just took too much of a toll (along with subpar goaltending) to make it work.

My hope from here is that we can put together a top 6 with Eklund, Musty, Smith, Celebrini, and a UFA/Trade guy or two. Let the bottom 6 morph into guys like Bystedt, Zetterlund, Edstrom, Lund, Halttunen, etc. that are big/strong, fast in the north-south game and still have skill to the point that they can balance out the scoring and/or play complimentary roles in the top 6 when injuries inevitably happen. I have basically no concern about the forward group going forward (think we have enough to get 6-8 homegrown regular NHLers and then can add via trade/UFA from there).

Concern for the near and long-term of the org is almost entirely on the backend with both the defense and the goaltending. Much harder to find the top end guys back there and also typically takes longer to develop them. So that will probably be the most limiting factor to the rebuild until we find answers.

Agreed, I hope we get Celebrini and can use the Pens pick on a good D prospect. It’s at least a start.

Our 2016 3C was Chris Tierney if I'm not mistaken. When everyone was healthy, he was flanked by at least one of Ward or Donskoi and then by Nieto or Melker. When Hertl went down, they didn't do enough to help that Tierney line and Thornton's line couldn't do enough either and they were getting outplayed massively as a result.

Sorry yes that’s right

 

[Sharksrule04]

Sheppard wasn't on the team in 2016 but overall that was kind of a fluke run with a solid but unspectacular lineup. Instead of realizing it was one final high note at the end of a decade long contention window, DW spent the next 2 years trading four first round picks and handing out a half dozen max term contracts to 30 year olds in a desperate attempt to win with an over the hill core.

It really wasn't a fluke. The Sharks outplayed all teams they faced in the playoffs until the Penguins. Saying the Sharks were lucky or it was a fluke is revisionist history. This was a time when Burns was unreal, Jones was on top of his game, Vlasic/Braun was still the best shut down pairing in the NHL, Pavs and Jumbo were point per game players, Hertl starting to show he was a legit threat consistently and Marleau/Couture were providing depth scoring. Not to mention the veterans like Ward and Martin. That was a very very good team.

 

[ChompChomp]

He's who a lot of us wanted before Quinn got hired so I'd be stoked about it

Quinn's final year on his contract is 24-25. I wouldn't be surprised if Grier lets Quinn finish out his contract, then simply doesn't renew in the 25 offseason, and promotes Warsofsky to HC (with a 3-5 yr contract) starting in 25-26. I'd prefer 5 years. I just have this inkling that Warsofsky is the next Jon Cooper and once the Sharks promote Warsofsky to HC, he should be locked in for the long haul with the new core.

 

[hohosaregood]

It really wasn't a fluke. The Sharks outplayed all teams they faced in the playoffs until the Penguins. Saying the Sharks were lucky or it was a fluke is revisionist history. This was a time when Burns was unreal, Jones was on top of his game, Vlasic/Braun was still the best shut down pairing in the NHL, Pavs and Jumbo were point per game players, Hertl starting to show he was a legit threat consistently and Marleau/Couture were providing depth scoring. Not to mention the veterans like Ward and Martin. That was a very very good team.

Yea I remember we walked through the 2nd half of that season but we got stomped so hard by the Pens that a lot of people kinda write off how good the Sharks were that year with a lot of them claiming that TB would've beaten us easily as well.

 

[sharski]

That magical playoff run is the only time I believed in my heart of hearts that I was watching the best line in the playoffs playing for the sharks

Then they all got injured and ran into the buzzsaw that was the penguins

I credit the sharks for at least pushing it to 6 I truly feel like they maxed out with what they had that year

PS the entire HBK line can go to hell

 

[coooldude]

There were tons of injuries by the time we got to the finals too.

We lost Hertl in game 2. That was the nail in the coffin. With Hertl I think we had a chance to steal the series.

 

[Hodge]

It really wasn't a fluke. The Sharks outplayed all teams they faced in the playoffs until the Penguins. Saying the Sharks were lucky or it was a fluke is revisionist history. This was a time when Burns was unreal, Jones was on top of his game, Vlasic/Braun was still the best shut down pairing in the NHL, Pavs and Jumbo were point per game players, Hertl starting to show he was a legit threat consistently and Marleau/Couture were providing depth scoring. Not to mention the veterans like Ward and Martin. That was a very very good team.

Our best player was a 36 year old Joe Thornton having one of the greatest seasons of his HOF career after declining for years prior to that. We were also lucky to avoid fast teams like Dallas and Chicago until Pittsburgh's speed destroyed us in the Final. That was a good team but not even close to a Cup worthy one. Certainly not one you should invest four 1st round picks and hundreds of millions in long term cap commitments into trying to win with.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Our best player was a 36 year old Joe Thornton having one of the greatest seasons of his HOF career after declining for years prior to that. We were also lucky to avoid fast teams like Dallas and Chicago until Pittsburgh's speed destroyed us in the Final. That was a good team but not even close to a Cup worthy one.

Yea this is completely irrelevant. They made the SCF and beat good teams in the process. Even the Pens who "destroyed" the Sharks won game 1 in the final 2 minutes and game 2 in OT. Age of Jumbo is irrelevant and that Sharks team would have beaten the 2016 version of the Blackhawks and Stars.

 

[Hodge]

Yea this is completely irrelevant. They made the SCF and beat good teams in the process. Even the Pens who "destroyed" the Sharks won game 1 in the final 2 minutes and game 2 in OT. Age of Jumbo is irrelevant and that Sharks team would have beaten the 2016 version of the Blackhawks and Stars.

Anyone who watched that series knows the Sharks didn't belong on the same ice surface as the Penguins. Jones was the only reason some of those games were close. The age of players like Thornton, Marleau and Burns was absolutely relevant when deciding whether or not to go all in with that team. When your 1C is 36 it's probably not a good idea to trade 4 1st rounders in the next 2 years in a desperate attempt to win.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

Anyone who watched that series knows the Sharks didn't belong on the same ice surface as the Penguins. Jones was the only reason some of those games were close. The age of players like Thornton, Marleau and Burns was absolutely relevant when deciding whether or not to go all in with that team. When your 1C is 36 it's probably not a good idea to trade 4 1st rounders in the next 2 years in a desperate attempt to win.

The Penguins were far better than the Sharks, but the Sharks absolutely were the best WC team. 2016/17 was very weak for the Western Conference. The run in 2019 was an absolute fluke for sure, as they should've been eliminated before Game 7 even happened. That was the year everything should've been blown up.

I think it's more than a little early to start penciling in our Hertl haul as the future cup winning 3C though. Lets hold off on the 2026 lineup predictions for now ladies and gents.

 

[Hodge]

The Penguins were far better than the Sharks, but the Sharks absolutely were the best WC team. 2016/17 was very weak for the Western Conference. The run in 2019 was an absolute fluke for sure, as they should've been eliminated before Game 7 even happened. That was the year everything should've been blown up.

I think it's more than a little early to start penciling in our Hertl haul as the future cup winning 3C though. Lets hold off on the 2026 lineup predictions for now ladies and gents.

Everything should have been blown up in 2018 when we were eliminated by a first year expansion team one year after being eliminated by the f***ing Oilers.

Imagine if we had just let Kane walk, not chased Tavares or Karlsson and put Pavelski and Couture on the trade market with 1 year remaining on each of their contracts. That's easily two extra 1sts from the Pavelski and Couture trades plus we would keep the 1sts and Norris from the Kane and Karlsson trades. We would probably be in the playoff mix again by now. Oh well.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Anyone who watched that series knows the Sharks didn't belong on the same ice surface as the Penguins. Jones was the only reason some of those games were close. The age of players like Thornton, Marleau and Burns was absolutely relevant when deciding whether or not to go all in with that team. When your 1C is 36 it's probably not a good idea to trade 4 1st rounders in the next 2 years in a desperate attempt to win.

You're focusing way too much on age. In a single season age is irrelevant. Doesn't matter if Jumbo had been bad for 3 years and then had an amazing season at 43 years old, performance is what matters. Also does Jones performance not count as the Sharks being a good team? I mean a good goalie is part of your team. Just seems like a weird take to me.

I'm not saying the Penguins were lucky, they were in fact the far superior team in that series. The fact is though they won both games 1 and 2 by a single goal which the Sharks while outplayed found ways to keep it close to the end. That's sports and it's not "destroying" a team.

Everything should have been blown up in 2018 when we were eliminated by a first year expansion team one year after being eliminated by the f***ing Oilers.

Imagine if we had just let Kane walk, not chased Tavares or Karlsson and put Pavelski and Couture on the trade market with 1 year remaining on each of their contracts. That's easily two extra 1sts from the Pavelski and Couture trades plus we would keep the 1sts and Norris from the Kane and Karlsson trades. We would probably be in the playoff mix again by now. Oh well.

Then you don't have the season where we made the conference final and were actually unlucky to not advance because of all the injuries sustained. That was a shot at a cup and while I know you'll focus on the fact we should have lost in the first round (because it was the DW era) again it was one of the better teams the Sharks have had and that team had a real chance of winning it all.

 

[Hodge]

You're focusing way too much on age. In a single season age is irrelevant. Doesn't matter if Jumbo had been bad for 3 years and then had an amazing season at 43 years old, performance is what matters. Also does Jones performance not count as the Sharks being a good team? I mean a good goalie is part of your team. Just seems like a weird take to me.

I'm not saying the Penguins were lucky, they were in fact the far superior team in that series. The fact is though they won both games 1 and 2 by a single goal which the Sharks while outplayed found ways to keep it close to the end. That's sports and it's not "destroying" a team.

So much of the final score in a single hockey game is dependent on luck. It was obvious watching the games, or even going back and watching them now, that the Sharks were thoroughly outclassed in every single game of that series in terms of the run of play.

Thornton's age and Jones' complete lack of a track record were relevant in analyzing the Sharks performance in 2016 in order to chart a course forward. If Thornton had been 26 and Jones had an extensive history of performing like a .920 SV% goalie it would have made sense to go all in on trying to win a Cup over the next few years but that wasn't the case.

Believing that the 2016 run was a sign of things to come, rather than one final hurrah for a team that peaked in the late aughts, explains in large part why the Sharks are in their current hopeless state.

 

[Hodge]

Then you don't have the season where we made the conference final and were actually unlucky to not advance because of all the injuries sustained. That was a shot at a cup and while I know you'll focus on the fact we should have lost in the first round (because it was the DW era) again it was one of the better teams the Sharks have had and that team had a real chance of winning it all.

So we wouldn't have a season where the Sharks didn't even get close to winning? Who cares?

Of course the 2019 Sharks were a good team - you damn well better be a good team after investing two 1st round picks, Josh Norris and a slew of other mid-round picks into building it. But no team with 2019 Martin Jones in net had a realistic chance of winning the Cup. It's completely reckless to invest that many futures into what you know is a single playoff run (Karlsson and Pavelski were pending UFAs and we had no chance of keeping both) and we're paying the price for it now.

 

[Sharksrule04]

So much of the final score in a single hockey game is dependent on luck. It was obvious watching the games, or even going back and watching them now, that the Sharks were thoroughly outclassed in every single game of that series in terms of the run of play.

Thornton's age and Jones' complete lack of a track record were relevant in analyzing the Sharks performance in 2016 in order to chart a course forward. If Thornton had been 26 and Jones had an extensive history of performing like a .920 SV% goalie it would have made sense to go all in on trying to win a Cup over the next few years but that wasn't the case.

Believing that the 2016 run was a sign of things to come, rather than one final hurrah for a team that peaked in the late aughts, explains in large part why the Sharks are in their current hopeless state.

Breaking it down would have simply put them in a hopeless state years ago rather than now (potentially now as well). Every franchise that has success goes through these phases as old age hits the stars. It is very rare for teams to continue success endlessly and seamlessly through multiple era's.

Getting rid of and breaking down what is a playoff team and potential contender is purely a made up fan concept. No NHL GM is going to take a team that has a real shot to do damage in the playoffs and simply get rid of all the talent because they will likely suck in 2-3 years time, nor should they. The Sharks season where they lost in the conference final is evidence of why they shouldn't. Any chance at a cup is worth more than pre-emptively preparing for a new era by tanking from both an Owners and Front Offices perspective and really should be a from a fan perspective as well. I personally would happily take 15-20 years of sucking even for 1 single Stanley Cup.

This doesn't excuse bad contracts given out to Jones and Vlasic but I place 0 blame on DW for attempting to win in those last seasons of the Jumbo era when our team was still strong.

 

[Sharksrule04]

So we wouldn't have a season where the Sharks didn't even get close to winning? Who cares?

Of course the 2019 Sharks were a good team - you damn well better be a good team after investing two 1st round picks, Josh Norris and a slew of other mid-round picks into building it. But no team with 2019 Martin Jones in net had a realistic chance of winning the Cup. It's completely reckless to invest that many futures into what you know is a single playoff run (Karlsson and Pavelski were pending UFAs and we had no chance of keeping both) and we're paying the price for it now.

So your argument is to force the franchise to suck in 2018, 2019 when it didn't need to suck with no guarantee of improvement later on rather than take a shot at winning and just accepting that the suck will come? It really doesn't make sense to me and take a look at the teams who were tanking during those years. Who has suddenly become a contender? Buffalo? Ottawa? Montreal? Detroit?

 

[Saskatoon]

One thing that does irk me about 2016 is that the Pens team was the best team the East had put in the finals in awhile. The prior 4 years LA/Hawks traded winning cups.

Vancouver probably should have won in 2011 too with their 2-0 series lead but they did run into an insane Tim Thomas

 

[fasterthanlight]

HBK was an anomaly. Kudos to them, but Nick f**ing Bonino and Carl f***ing Hagelin going goblin mode PPG in the playoffs was insane.

 

[coooldude]

So much of the final score in a single hockey game is dependent on luck. It was obvious watching the games, or even going back and watching them now, that the Sharks were thoroughly outclassed in every single game of that series in terms of the run of play.

Thornton's age and Jones' complete lack of a track record were relevant in analyzing the Sharks performance in 2016 in order to chart a course forward. If Thornton had been 26 and Jones had an extensive history of performing like a .920 SV% goalie it would have made sense to go all in on trying to win a Cup over the next few years but that wasn't the case.

Believing that the 2016 run was a sign of things to come, rather than one final hurrah for a team that peaked in the late aughts, explains in large part why the Sharks are in their current hopeless state.

I agree and disagree with this sentiment.

I agree that 2016, for me, was the moment I knew we weren't going to win a cup in that cycle. It felt like we were the team of destiny, and that it was now or never, and we just got beat.

I don't agree that we were "thoroughly outclassed in every single game of the series" although I do agree that we were "often" or even "mostly outclassed." Game 2 was a very tight game until Hertl went down. Game 3 we were lucky to steal. We never led the series. We definitely got beaten. I just think that with Hertl, we had a chance to take it to 7 and a very long shot at stealing the series.

But again, I agree with you, because... 2019, we basically didn't even deserve to make it to the WCF's. We were a pretender all year. The miracle PP was a miracle and will never be forgotten and was amazing, but we were lucky to get out of that series. We were the grizzled old team vs. the young guns in Colorado, but arguably we were lucky to get out of that series as well. In my mind, we probably should have started a more significant rebuild after 2016... but to be fair, DW was trying to do that. Trading for Kane wasn't a bad decision. Going hard at Tavares wasn't a bad decision. Selling the farm for EK was questionable to me, and was the first big mistake. Signing him was, to me, the nail in the coffin. Letting Pavs walk made sense at the time (I didn't think we should have signed him for 3x7), but in retrospect only upended the locker room and he had more longevity than was reasonably expected.

"Believing that the 2016 run was a sign of things to come, rather than one final hurrah for a team that peaked in the late aughts, explains in large part why the Sharks are in their current hopeless state" -- this is, indeed true. But if we had started the rebuild back then, who knows where we'd be. There's no telling we'd be in a good spot. Revisionist history / counterfactual world is pretty useless to try to explore.

Anyway, on topic, one thing is for certain: we shouldn't have re-signed Hertl.

 

[Bizz]

If you ever feel stupid, just remember that an NHL GM made the decision to tie up almost 3 Million dollars of cap space to a #1C and a Generational Defenseman to not play for our team for the next 3 years.

 

[mogambomoroo]

If you ever feel stupid, just remember that an NHL GM made the decision to tie up almost 3 Million dollars of cap space to a #1C and a Generational Defenseman to not play for our team for the next 3 years.

GM & Interim GM before that made an even more stupid decision signing those deals in the first place.

 

[DG93]

GM & Interim GM before that made an even more stupid decision signing those deals in the first place.

And they signed a very solid but injury-prone 2C approaching 30 years old to that deal not a 1C...