Proposal: TML & Canucks

[Peter Griffin]

I've seen so many posters say 'we'll just wait", but with no actual plan as to how that's a better solution?

A lot depends on what the Canucks' actual plans are for Miller. They could wait until the off-season and sign him to an extension. Or a team not in a playoff race now may look to acquire Miller at the draft and sign him to an extension. Trading him for the best offer at this deadline if all it includes are cap dumps, a late 1st and a prospect with question marks would be silly.

 

[Cogburn]

Thats exactly it. Would love Miller on the leafs, he'dprobably make our top 6 the best in the NHL, but losing the pieces necessary to aquire him would hurt us badly considering our cap.

We're not opposed to taking a cap dump and retaining, but it's more making it worth losing Miller, retaining into next year and essentially throwing in the towel for the next few years too, with our best forward being off the team.

 

[Boondock]

Who do you hope to get in the off-season? Or at the deadline?

How often do Robertson-calibre prospects, plus a 1st round pick, trade for pure rentals? Even if you believe that's realistic, is it worth all the risk, also knowing getting a draft pick and prospect that are a likely a year younger and year further away from meaningful contributions.


I've seen so many posters say 'we'll just wait", but with no actual plan as to how that's a better solution?

1 - in the off season more teams have more cap flexibility. Player movement isn't impacted by daily cap compliance, and teams have money to spend and a desire to improve their rosters. You also have 31 teams that could be interested instead of the 3-4 playoff teams at the deadline.
2 - for a player like Miller, prospects like Robertson will be made available.
3 - Robertson and a late 1st isn't such an amazing package we would be missing out, there will be others interested. especially if there is retention.
4 - Of coarse there is risk, but there is risk in trading for an undersized injured prospect, there's risk taking on additional cap trading away your best forward and making your team worse in the mean time. There are lots of risks - but nothing in the Leafs fans offers has made the risk taking at the cost of all other potential offers.
5 - I don't have any individual hopes for a specific player. I would love a potential d partner for Hughes, I would like to see the Canucks replenish their C depth, but I would accept the best offer regardless of position - I will be extremely disappointed if Robertson, 1st and Ritchie is the best offer. At that point, you look at extending Miller and make other moves to improve the team.
6 - Waiting may not be better, but if these deals are what's on the table, they won't be worse.

 

[Phrasing]

We can agree Kerfoot is not a trash cap dump and also not a desirable asset by the Canucks at the same time.

So the proposal needs to be without Kerfoot.

 

[seanlinden]

Rutherford has on two occasions said we're "retooling". I'm not convinced we are looking at strictly long term futures. However we fundamentally disagree on your point. If we have 4 or 5 LW prospects we expect to blossom, we don't need to go and take an offer for another LW prospect if there are other, comparable options out there.

Tampa Bay, Anaheim or Los Angeles if they decide to jump in with both feet, Boston, Vegas, Colorado, Washington, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Calgary...I mean any team in or fighting for a playoff position that has a top six player presumed to be leaving via trade or UFA, or simply has a hole. Will they offer something we want or need? Well, one way to find out.

Otherwise, we could just keep him. What he brings to our team isn't worth throwing off the team for the first offer either, if our minimum isn't met. We could push things back to the draft or even next deadline too.

Again, IF / WHEN all of those LWers blossom, then that's a great problem to have and you deal with it then. At this point, Vancouver needs assets, period..

Who do you think any of those teams are likely to offer? Again, would love to debate actual proposals rather than theory.

A lot depends on what the Canucks' actual plans are for Miller. They could wait until the off-season and sign him to an extension. Or a team not in a playoff race now may look to acquire Miller at the draft and sign him to an extension. Trading him for the best offer at this deadline if all it includes are cap dumps, a late 1st and a prospect with question marks would be silly.

Ultimately, if resigning Miller is a consideration, then as a Canucks fan, you've gotta ask yourself -- where is this better team going to come from??

Quinn Hughes obviously has a fair bit of runway of potential development to go. Maybe Elias Pettersson to a slightly lesser extent.... I don't think those 2 players, in conjunction with the Canucks core of guys that are all in their mid 20s is enough.

1 - in the off season more teams have more cap flexibility. Player movement isn't impacted by daily cap compliance, and teams have money to spend and a desire to improve their rosters. You also have 31 teams that could be interested instead of the 3-4 playoff teams at the deadline.
2 - for a player like Miller, prospects like Robertson will be made available.
3 - Robertson and a late 1st isn't such an amazing package we would be missing out, there will be others interested. especially if there is retention.
4 - Of coarse there is risk, but there is risk in trading for an undersized injured prospect, there's risk taking on additional cap trading away your best forward and making your team worse in the mean time. There are lots of risks - but nothing in the Leafs fans offers has made the risk taking at the cost of all other potential offers.
5 - I don't have any individual hopes for a specific player. I would love a potential d partner for Hughes, I would like to see the Canucks replenish their C depth, but I would accept the best offer regardless of position - I will be extremely disappointed if Robertson, 1st and Ritchie is the best offer. At that point, you look at extending Miller and make other moves to improve the team.
6 - Waiting may not be better, but if these deals are what's on the table, they won't be worse.

Sorry, I didn't actually see a proposal from any other team there.... that's what I'm really looking for to be able to have a reasonable debate. Put yourself in Rutherford's shoes -- do you not think he's going to look around the league, or even engage in preliminary talks towards an offseason deal?

As for your suggestion that a player like Robertson would be available, I'd ask again, do you have a somewhat recent example of a prospect of that calibre, plus a 1st round pick, being traded for a rental?

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

No Miller trade to Toronto makes sense unless it involves CBC, TSN and Sportsnet signing off on that they are to never, ever again:

1. Broadcast Leafs games
2. Mention the Leafs in any capacity
3. Mention past and present Leaf players
4. Mention the City of Toronto

 

[Funk21]

We do turn down that trade if there are other trade offers that fill our needs better and/or beat the value. Amirov and Toronto's 1st isn't the best offer on the table however, at least according to what "insiders" are reporting. I never said no, just that we'd need to tweak the offer.

If the offer was Liljegren and Amirov (+what ever cap dump), we don't really have a standing to turn down the offer. I don't want to make people think that's the expected offer, just that that would fit us like a glove for team needs and value. However Liljegren+1st+what ever prospect/pick we settle on runs into the same problem the original offer did as well, where rumours and other fanbases are already pulling ahead.

We aren’t trading Liljegren and Amirov for what is essentially 1.5 years of JT Miller and one run with a 6/7 depth defenceman. Look I get the JT Miller is apparently the second coming of Gretzky but on most deep SC contenders he is second line LW or 3C. It’s exactly what Kerfoot role is but has size and slightly more upside. Obviously his playoff experience would also help not that Kerfoot was bad last year( one of our best players) but Miller has a real SC Run.

If the notion of picks don’t do anything for the Canucks faithful then it’s likely one of Robertson or Amirov or a player like SDA/Hirvonen. Personally I would even add an additional pick rather than lose a prospect. Knies and Neimela are completely off the table along with Liljegren and Sandin. We need relatively cheap cap hits to make this team work next year.

 

[Cogburn]

Again, IF / WHEN all of those LWers blossom, then that's a great problem to have and you deal with it then. At this point, Vancouver needs assets, period..

Who do you think any of those teams are likely to offer? Again, would love to debate actual proposals rather than theory.

Why not hedge your bets though? Having that many players at one position...well it doesn't always work out. Look at the early 2010s Penguins as an example, they kept adding D prospects and ended up selling low on many of them. This isn't a draft, and if a team has professional scouting that isn't a joke, they should have a better handle on what they're getting if the targeted players are playing pro. Diversification makes sense to me.

Who knows, we'd have to pull some fans into the discussion, because any of my proposals will be very selfish. If anyone reading this from a fan base other than Vancouver, Toronto or the Rangers, let's hear it. Price to beat is Amirov, Toronto's first and another piece.

 

[Cogburn]

We aren’t trading Liljegren and Amirov for what is essentially 1.5 years of JT Miller and one run with a 6/7 depth defenceman. Look I get the JT Miller is apparently the second coming of Gretzky but on most deep SC contenders he is second line LW or 3C. It’s exactly what Kerfoot role is but has size and slightly more upside. Obviously his playoff experience would also help not that Kerfoot was bad last year( one of our best players) but Miller has a real SC Run.

If the notion of picks don’t do anything for the Canucks faithful then it’s likely one of Robertson or Amirov or a player like SDA/Hirvonen. Personally I would even add an additional pick rather than lose a prospect. Knies and Neimela are completely off the table along with Liljegren and Sandin. We need relatively cheap cap hits to make this team work next year.

And we aren't taking a late first and second with what are, again to us, cap dumps, for one of the best players potentially on the market. Your original offer was downright offensive.

No one is expecting Liljegren and Amirov from the Leafs though, I believe my choice of words were along the lines of we can't turn it down, were it offered.

You see how that's not attractive though, yes? We need high end centers and right handed D0, as far as prospects go, and we're being offered wingers as the biggest part of our return. SDA, Hirvonen and Robertson aren't particularly attractive either, as most of our prospects are quite small as well. And I like Amirov and all, but he's not some can't miss prospect that wouldn't have an equivalent through other teams. If four of your best prospects/young players are off the table for Miller, there isn't really anything more to discuss, unless there's a can't miss hockey trade.

 

[Diamonddog01]

Canucks politely decline.

 

[Phrasing]

We aren’t trading Liljegren and Amirov for what is essentially 1.5 years of JT Miller and one run with a 6/7 depth defenceman. Look I get the JT Miller is apparently the second coming of Gretzky but on most deep SC contenders he is second line LW or 3C. It’s exactly what Kerfoot role is but has size and slightly more upside. Obviously his playoff experience would also help not that Kerfoot was bad last year( one of our best players) but Miller has a real SC Run.

If the notion of picks don’t do anything for the Canucks faithful then it’s likely one of Robertson or Amirov or a player like SDA/Hirvonen. Personally I would even add an additional pick rather than lose a prospect. Knies and Neimela are completely off the table along with Liljegren and Sandin. We need relatively cheap cap hits to make this team work next year.

How on earth would Miller be a second or third liner on a competitive team? How many players have scored more than Miller the last three years? He’s undoubtedly a first line player on a competitive team (except in the case where there’s a better superstar ahead of him on the depth chart— but then again he plays both wing and center so he can go anywhere).

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Leafs just don’t have what we need unfortunately. Don’t have that game breaking prospect worth it.
PS…OP this is garbage

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Canucks politely decline.

Politely?

 

[Diamonddog01]

Politely?

By politely they thank Dubas profusely for the offer and quickly end the conversation before they can no longer contain the loud howls of laugher in the boardroom.

These two teams never seem to make great trading partners and they certainly don't now.

 

[Funk21]

How on earth would Miller be a second or third liner on a competitive team? How many players have scored more than Miller the last three years? He’s undoubtedly a first line player on a competitive team (except in the case where there’s a better superstar ahead of him on the depth chart— but then again he plays both wing and center so he can go anywhere).

You answered your own statement, basically when he was with the TBL he was playing on the second line or third.

He has been playing above his station and admittedly very well but when you say first line C in the NHL I don’t think the average fan or even a true Hockey fan thinks JT Miller.

 

[Phrasing]

You answered your own statement, basically when he was with the TBL he was playing on the second line or third.

He has been playing above his station and admittedly very well but when you say first line C in the NHL I don’t think the average fan or even a true Hockey fan thinks JT Miller.

Hes not the same player in TB as he was afterwards for one- and you said on most teams contending for the cup. I said he’d have to be on a team where he can’t supplant the top line and that’s going to be a couple of teams— that’s it.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

You answered your own statement, basically when he was with the TBL he was playing on the second line or third.

He has been playing above his station and admittedly very well but when you say first line C in the NHL I don’t think the average fan or even a true Hockey fan thinks JT Miller.

So basically over the last 3 seasons he has proven he is a 1st line player, but because he wasn't with TB every GM of a contender will automatically value him as such?

In what f***ing world would any GM think this way?

 

[elitepete]

If the Canucks management decides to pull the plug on the season and JT Miller is available the TML would have considerable interest in a player of his calibre. So here goes:

Canucks
JT Miller
Schenn

TML
Kerfoot
Dermott
Ritchie
2022 1st
2023 2nd


The way I see it Schenn for Dermott slightly favours the Canucks as they get a controlled PMD who can play bottom pairing minutes but can play the right side if needed. Schenn adds veteran leadership and a player that gone deep should somebody get injured or Liljegren is not able to handle the load.

Kerfoot and the picks even things out for JT Miller IMO and we’ll I’m not sure if we need to add a sweetener to take on Ritchie. It’s basically a wash Cap wise.

Flame Shields On!!!

terrible offer

 

[Canadian Canuck]

So basically over the last 3 seasons he has proven he is a 1st line player, but because he wasn't with TB every GM of a contender will automatically value him as such?

In what f***ing world would any GM think this way?

Braindead ones

 

[notbias]

What are people actually thinking is fair for Miller?

Stone with an extension didn't even get as much as some people want for Miller.

I'd say a package close to what we sent for Muzzin is fair.

1st + 2 B prospects.

Something like: 1st + Abruzzese + Hirvonen

I don't think fans are going to like the actual return for Miller.

with Ritchie attached send back like a 3rd or Dermott, a cap dump of 2.5 mil is not worth as much as people think either.

likely response will be "we pass then, we will waste the next two seasons holding him"

 

[Boondock]

Again, IF / WHEN all of those LWers blossom, then that's a great problem to have and you deal with it then. At this point, Vancouver needs assets, period..

Who do you think any of those teams are likely to offer? Again, would love to debate actual proposals rather than theory.



Ultimately, if resigning Miller is a consideration, then as a Canucks fan, you've gotta ask yourself -- where is this better team going to come from??

Quinn Hughes obviously has a fair bit of runway of potential development to go. Maybe Elias Pettersson to a slightly lesser extent.... I don't think those 2 players, in conjunction with the Canucks core of guys that are all in their mid 20s is enough.



Sorry, I didn't actually see a proposal from any other team there.... that's what I'm really looking for to be able to have a reasonable debate. Put yourself in Rutherford's shoes -- do you not think he's going to look around the league, or even engage in preliminary talks towards an offseason deal?

As for your suggestion that a player like Robertson would be available, I'd ask again, do you have a somewhat recent example of a prospect of that calibre, plus a 1st round pick, being traded for a rental?

There is a lot of loaded questions/comments in your post. First off I've included names in proposals 6000 times in the many Miller trade threads with back up and explanation.

I guess it really depends on how you value Robertson vs how I value him. I have my concerns. He is undersized, he has had back to back development years interrupted by significant injuries. To me, those are both big concerns and would impact the way I value the prospect. I would be disappointed if Robertson was the primary prospect the Canucks received for Miller. So when I look at deals where prospects were traded, I probably have a different opinion on "similar caliber". For instance the Max Pacioretty trade included Suzuki, Tatar (retained) and a 2nd. But remember MaxPac was having his worst offensive season and needed a new contract. The Stone deal included Brannstrom (who hasn't really lived up to his expectations, but at the time was seen as a high end prospect). I also think looking back it would be quite clear the Sens didn't get max return for Stone as the organization promised they would send him to one of his requested destinations. In both those cases organizations top 2-3 prospects were traded for rentals. If you look at the 2021 TSN prospect rankings Brannstrom, Krebs and Robertson are listed as prospects #18, 19 and 20 - 2 of the 3 have been traded (only one for a rental), but this does indicate that they do get traded.

I also feel that you may be disregarding the level of player Miller is right now. MaxPac was having his worst year when traded, Miller is playing his best. You ask when was the last time a prospect of Robertson's level was traded for a rental - when was the last time a player of Miller's caliber was traded at a TDL? Hall would be the closest (when he went from NJ to Phx) but even then he wasn't playing his best. So comparing Miller to the returns of Coleman, Goodrow and JGP doesn't seem to be taking Millers actual play into account.

 

[Boondock]

What are people actually thinking is fair for Miller?

Stone with an extension didn't even get as much as some people want for Miller.

I'd say a package close to what we sent for Muzzin is fair.

1st + 2 B prospects.

Something like: 1st + Abruzzese + Hirvonen

I don't think fans are going to like the actual return for Miller.

with Ritchie attached send back like a 3rd or Dermott, a cap dump of 2.5 mil is not worth as much as people think either.

likely response will be "we pass then, we will waste the next two seasons holding him"

yes because that is the only other option.....

Did you compare Miller's value to Muzzin's? That's all anyone here needs to know.

 

[notbias]

yes because that is the only other option.....

Did you compare Miller's value to Muzzin's? That's all anyone here needs to know.

I suggest you go through past trades.

Miller isn't fetching what you think he is.

Muzzin was probably more valuable then than Miller is now.

 

[seanlinden]

There is a lot of loaded questions/comments in your post. First off I've included names in proposals 6000 times in the many Miller trade threads with back up and explanation.

I guess it really depends on how you value Robertson vs how I value him. I have my concerns. He is undersized, he has had back to back development years interrupted by significant injuries. To me, those are both big concerns and would impact the way I value the prospect. I would be disappointed if Robertson was the primary prospect the Canucks received for Miller. So when I look at deals where prospects were traded, I probably have a different opinion on "similar caliber". For instance the Max Pacioretty trade included Suzuki, Tatar (retained) and a 2nd. But remember MaxPac was having his worst offensive season and needed a new contract. The Stone deal included Brannstrom (who hasn't really lived up to his expectations, but at the time was seen as a high end prospect). I also think looking back it would be quite clear the Sens didn't get max return for Stone as the organization promised they would send him to one of his requested destinations. In both those cases organizations top 2-3 prospects were traded for rentals. If you look at the 2021 TSN prospect rankings Brannstrom, Krebs and Robertson are listed as prospects #18, 19 and 20 - 2 of the 3 have been traded (only one for a rental), but this does indicate that they do get traded.

I also feel that you may be disregarding the level of player Miller is right now. MaxPac was having his worst year when traded, Miller is playing his best. You ask when was the last time a prospect of Robertson's level was traded for a rental - when was the last time a player of Miller's caliber was traded at a TDL? Hall would be the closest (when he went from NJ to Phx) but even then he wasn't playing his best. So comparing Miller to the returns of Coleman, Goodrow and JGP doesn't seem to be taking Millers actual play into account.

I guess I'm somehow missing the suggested alternative returns for Miller. The common theme I see from Canucks fans is Schneider... and the common response I see from rangers fans is an emphatic no. I don't think I've seen a realistic proposal from a Canucks fan not from NYR/TOR.

With respect to the prior comparisons to Stone & Pacioretty, while I'd agree that Suzuki & Brannstrom at the time were likely viewed as marginally better prospects than Robertson is today, neither of those deals included a 1st round pick for the Habs/Sens.

No disrespect intended for Miller at all.... maybe Mark Stone is the best comparable (although I think Stone had more desirability than Miller does) and somebody is willing to send a prospect at the top of their list at the deadline for him; but I don't think it's going to include a 1st as well, and that prospect is likely going to be a year further away from contributing than one that you get at this deadline.... and that's assuming that Miller's play continues.

 

[Cogburn]

What are people actually thinking is fair for Miller?

Stone with an extension didn't even get as much as some people want for Miller.

I'd say a package close to what we sent for Muzzin is fair.

1st + 2 B prospects.

Something like: 1st + Abruzzese + Hirvonen

I don't think fans are going to like the actual return for Miller.

with Ritchie attached send back like a 3rd or Dermott, a cap dump of 2.5 mil is not worth as much as people think either.

likely response will be "we pass then, we will waste the next two seasons holding him"

Mark Stone wasn't going to resign his expiring contract, I suspect with no proof or evidence he may have asked out (given the teams recent performance and politics), and has missed a lot of time due to injury, both leading up and since the trade. Vegas also had to cast off players later to accommodate Stone's new contract that off season. Brannstrom was one of the top prospects leaguewide, in all positions. Brannstrom wasn't some B tier prospect. There was a lot of buzz around him. Most feedback at the time was positive, even from Leafs fans. Here:
Confirmed Trade: - [VGK/OTT] Mark Stone, Tobias Lindberg for Erik Brannstrom, Oscar Lindberg, and 2020 2nd round pick

Muzzin got Grundstrom, Durzi and a 1st. Miller is a much better player then Muzzin. A 2/3 lefty defensive/stay at home D man is not worth the same as a high scoring, powerforward center. There is just no way to make that equivalent.

Conversely, are we saying Miller is worth only slightly more than Goodrow (a first and a B prospect in Greco)?
Or Coleman (Foote and a 1st)?
Or Dvorak (1st and 2nd)?
Or Kuemper (Timmins and a 1st)?
Or an unsigned, disgruntled Reinhart (1st and Levi)?
Or Ristolainen (1st and Hagg)?
Or Mantha (1st, 2nd, Vrana and Panik)?
Or Palmeri and an over the hill Zajac (1st. 2nd, Greer and Jobst)?
Or Kapanen (1st, Rodriguez, Hallinder and Warofsky)?
Or Pageau (1st, 2nd and 3rd)?
Or Zucker (Addison, a 1st and Galchenyuk)?
Or Hayes (Lemeiux and a 1st)?
Or Montour (Guhle and a 1st)?
Or Duchene (two 1sts, Davidsson and Abramov)?
Or O'Reilly (Thomson, 1st and a 2nd and cap dumps)?
Or Tatar (1st, 2nd and 3rd)?
Or Statsny (1st, 4th and Foley)?
Or Hartman (1st, 4th and Edjsell)?
Or an older Nash scoring way below Miller's rate (Belesky, Spooner, Lindgren, a 1st and a 7th)?
A disgruntled Kane got a prospect, a first and a 4th.
Pacioretty, who was older and was not performing as Miller has, got Suzuki, Tatar (1st, 2nd and a 3rd 5 months earlier) and a 2nd too. Ask any Montreal fan what kind of pick Suzuki is worth.

Miller, with another year and half retained, beats the pants off nearly everyone there (Duchene, O'Reilly and Pacioretty not withstanding), some of whom got your asking price of a first and 2 B prospects, or equivalent. Some got better returns. Duchene and O'Reilly both demanded trades out. Patches got more of a mixed return, which I personally am not against.

A broken Eichel demanding a trade to a team that recognizes his doctors opinion for the type of specialty surgery needed, at 4 times the cap hit, already on the LTIR, got Tuch, Krebs a 1st and 2nd. We haven't been offered a player of Krebs calibre with a first without getting push back, let alone Tuch and a 2nd.

Hell Hall was 183 points in 181 in the three years leading up to his trade and Miller has 164 points in 168 games, would have a similar cap hit, similar age and was signed a year less. Bahl, Merkley, Schnarr and two conditional firsts was his return. Granted Hall had a league MVP award, but no one is saying this is the expected return either.

Karlsson, who demanded a trade and Ottawa limited themselves in terms of suitors, got 4 conditional picks (as many as 3 1sts), Norris, Balcers, Demelo and Tierney.

Seth Jones got two 1sts (one was 12th, the other in hindsight might be a lottery pick), Boqvist and a swap of 32 and 44.

No Canucks fans are asking for these last three returns. To be clear. This is context for how trades for players coming from selling teams have gone as a comparison.