Pre-Game Talk: Time to talk Playoffs

[Garbs]

The only thing standing between Leafs and the final 4 are the Leafs themselves.

Our Leafs have a habit to play down to their level of competition (see our regular season struggles against Van and OTT) , and when you have so much skill sometimes overconfidence can be your downfall when you think you just have to show up to win and take the rest for granted.

So while it is a little unsettling to think how easy Leafs should make quick work of their North Div opponents, I think the Leafs have a lot of veteran presence on the current roster, as well as players willing to dig in and show up to not allow complacency and taking things for granted to derail this journey.

Its been a while and not since 1993 & 1994 with Dougie or 1998-99 & 2001 with Mats that our Leafs made it to the final 4 and this year that seems like minimum floor for expectations.

Maybe stop pretending middling teams who scrape by the whole year, get to the playoffs and lay down for everyone. You might save yourself some frustration when Montreal or Winnipeg have the audacity to compete, in a game largely influenced by luck.

 

[zeke]

Don't forget that Galy and Engvall both seem to play best when they're fighting for their jobs so it makes sense for Keefe to keep them primed and ready to battle by slotting them out sometimes.

 

[zeke]

Maybe stop pretending middling teams who scrape by the whole year, get to the playoffs and lay down for everyone. You might save yourself some frustration when Montreal or Winnipeg have the audacity to compete, in a game largely influenced by luck.

Nonono - every time a top-5 seed plays a 12-16 seed (which happens multiple times every single year) it is always, always a SWEEP.

Don't you even know hockey?

 

[inthe6ix]

Freddy starting tomorrow as per SN..

Leafs' Andersen starting Wednesday; Foligno, Holl game-time decisions - Sportsnet.ca

 

[zeke]

Freddy starting tomorrow as per SN..

Ach.

I really want to win out this year to pass the Canes at least, and maybe even COL and VEG for the presidents trophy.

It would be absolutely classic if Andy came back again and ruined the end of this great season for us.

 

[mix1home]

Honestly I think the main reason Foligno is going to play on the 2nd line, is to protect JT... If you guys noticed players take shots at our captain and he's the target for a lot of abuse.. and I guess players know going after our younger stars is a no no and JT can handle the abuse and just ignore it... Having Foligno there not only gives that line a good defense and grind but also some push back in scrums if they take shots at JT.

I think it's mainly to yell at Will if he floats too much. lol

 

[Twine Tickler]

For the record - while this trio produced great offensely their underlying numbers were actually awful at around 35xgf%.

I think it was a line that seemed to really dominate the possession rather than generating a ton of HDCF. A lot of their goals for probably weren't even considered HDCF TBH. They just seemed to create their own bounces, and controlled the play in the offensive zone. I am not surprised to see their xGF% to be below 50%, but it does surprise me to hear that it was ~35%. Definitely doesn't align with what my eyes saw. I can't see any of the Line tool stats on Naturalstatrick right now. Maybe its down. But it could have been 1 statistical outlier of a game that skewed that percentage down that low. I think they only played like 5 games together in total. So it really could have been 1 bad game that dropped an otherwise positive statistic to a negative statistic. Like I said in an earlier post, a 4th line rarely loses you a game. If they are getting hemmed in consistently, you just draw back their minutes to the 6-7 mark and ride your big boys harder that game. Over the course of the playoffs though, we will need at least 50% of our games to be solid from that line. I expect some changes over the duration of the playoffs

 

[Atomos2]

I'm just happy Kerfoot isn't playing centre .. Guy is awful on the draw this year (40%).

Sucks for Gally but Keefe is clearly focused on a strong defensive line up that plays a more playoff oriented game. Putting a lot of the offense on the first two lines.

That fourth line may just be a bit too slow though. Thornton and Spezza seem to do better when they have a speeding player with them, to open up space.

The good thing about that is, if need be, we could easily bring up Brooks if needed. He has chemistry with Thornton and Spezza and looked really good. I like Simmonds for the physical edge in case the games get chippy, but if its not working for the 4th line then I'd put Brooks because of the previous established chemistry.

 

[Mitch nylander]

I don't understand what Mikheyev has done to deserve a spot over say Galchenyuk, Brooks or even Engvall.

Mikheyev's last 5 games

5gp, 0g, 0a, 0pts, +1, | only 1 pt in his last 10.

Engvall
5gp, 3g, 0a, 3pts, +2 | Has really played well lately

Brooks
5gp, 2g, 0a, 2pts, +3 | 5pts in his last 10, and is far more versatile. Plays center and wing. Has great chemistry with Spezza.

Galchenyuk
5gp, 2g, 2a, 4pts +3 | A much more dangerous offensive threat. With Nash who's an offensive blackhole, a spark of offence might not be a bad idea.

----

I like Mikheyev as a player, but there are much more deserving players than him right now.

 

[zeke]

I think it was a line that seemed to really dominate the possession rather than generating a ton of HDCF. A lot of their goals for probably weren't even considered HDCF TBH. They just seemed to create their own bounces, and controlled the play in the offensive zone. I am not surprised to see their xGF% to be below 50%, but it does surprise me to hear that it was ~35%. Definitely doesn't align with what my eyes saw. I can't see any of the Line tool stats on Naturalstatrick right now. Maybe its down. But it could have been 1 statistical outlier of a game that skewed that percentage down that low. I think they only played like 5 games together in total. So it really could have been 1 bad game that dropped an otherwise positive statistic to a negative statistic. Like I said in an earlier post, a 4th line rarely loses you a game. If they are getting hemmed in consistently, you just draw back their minutes to the 6-7 mark and ride your big boys harder that game. Over the course of the playoffs though, we will need at least 50% of our games to be solid from that line. I expect some changes over the duration of the playoffs

Yeah the eye test is especially difficult for 4th lines which you don't really look to dominate play - you tend to notice their good shifts far more easily than their bad ones....especially when they happen to be producing a bunch of goals to boot.

I was surprised to see how poor they did as well. Also the thornton-kerfoot-spezsa line wasn't much better at about 40%.

Interestingly though the one single game the Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds line played together they were very good at near 65%.....but that's the tiniest of sample sizes.

 

[kk87]

The only thing standing between Leafs and the final 4 are the Leafs themselves.

Our Leafs have a habit to play down to their level of competition (see our regular season struggles against Van and OTT) , and when you have so much skill sometimes overconfidence can be your downfall when you think you just have to show up to win and take the rest for granted.

So while it is a little unsettling to think how easy Leafs should make quick work of their North Div opponents, I think the Leafs have a lot of veteran presence on the current roster, as well as players willing to dig in and show up to not allow complacency and taking things for granted to derail this journey.

Its been a while and not since 1993 & 1994 with Dougie or 1998-99 & 2001 with Mats that our Leafs made it to the final 4 and this year that seems like minimum floor for expectations.

Totally. I said the same thing both years against Boston, and definitely said it last year against Columbus. The team is plagued by inconsistency, but when we're on there are only 2-3 teams that can go toe to toe with us. Unless it's Tampa, Vegas, Colorado or Carolina, an opponent's only chance to beat us is us shooting ourselves in the foot and not showing up.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Freddy starting tomorrow as per SN..

Leafs' Andersen starting Wednesday; Foligno, Holl game-time decisions - Sportsnet.ca

He needs a game, and we've clinched first overall. Campbell could also use a little rest I'm sure. Why risk an injury if we don't have to.

 

[X66]

I don't know how Nash will be, but when people say every line that he's on nothing happens...sometimes you want that lol.

When you have two 1st lines, I'm okay throwing out a nothing line until they're ready again.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Yeah the eye test is especially difficult for 4th lines which you don't really look to dominate play - you tend to notice their good shifts far more easily than their bad ones....especially when they happen to be producing a bunch of goals to boot.

I was surprised to see how poor they did as well. Also the thornton-kerfoot-spezsa line wasn't much better at about 40%.

Interestingly though the one single game the Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds line played together they were very good at near 65%.....but that's the tiniest of sample sizes.

Weird. I am excited to see what that line can do. You'll never have to worry about compete level when it comes to them in the playoffs. They will want it more than anyone. If they can manage to play around 10 mins a night at a neutral xGF%, and play with possession that's all you can really ask for from a 4th line. Production will just be a bonus. I think it's got a chance for sure

 

[Gary Nylund]

Totally. I said the same thing both years against Boston, and definitely said it last year against Columbus. The team is plagued by inconsistency, but when we're on there are only 2-3 teams that can go toe to toe with us. Unless it's Tampa, Vegas, Colorado or Carolina, an opponent's only chance to beat us is us shooting ourselves in the foot and not showing up.

LOL that's more than a little bit disrespectful to a number of other teams. Let's win something before bragging our asses off shall we?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I don't know how Nash will be, but when people say every line that he's on nothing happens...sometimes you want that lol.

When you have two 1st lines, I'm okay throwing out a nothing line until they're ready again.

It's good for teams who have terrible depth, but the Leafs have players who can be better than nothing

 

[Nylander88]

I don't know how Nash will be, but when people say every line that he's on nothing happens...sometimes you want that lol.

When you have two 1st lines, I'm okay throwing out a nothing line until they're ready again.

If we see a team like the Oilers during the playoffs, a guy like Nash is going to be huge in that role. Frees up our top two lines and leaves a line to contain McDavid. Like Keefe said, he played our top line often last year in the qualifier round, and when Keefe thought he had the advantage in the matchup, it didn't seem to turn out that way. Boring hockey. High defensive instincts

 

[Brobust]

I'm secretly afraid of every potential opponent.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I'm secretly afraid of every potential opponent.

tell me you're a leaf fan, without telling me you're a leaf fan....

 

[kk87]

LOL that's more than a little bit disrespectful to a number of other teams. Let's win something before bragging our asses off shall we?

Don't think it's disrespectful to say that given our talent, firepower and depth, there are few teams that can play at our level when all our lines are clicking. Issue is, we've played at the level far too inconsistently in recent years. This year it seems like there's a new level of maturity and poise with this team.

 

[authentic]

I'm secretly afraid of every potential opponent.

I secretly don't think anyone in the North will take them more than 6 games.

 

[MattySnipes]

Who knows how it'll play out but glad the boys won the division title for Canada cup.

However there is still the North division Championship (winner from the first two playoff rounds).

It's been an exciting season given the circumstances and I'm thrilled to be able to see some playoff hockey. Hope the boys are as pumped as we are.

Jets, Canadiens, Oilers, Avs, Knights, whoever.

Bring it!

 

[mix1home]

I don't know how Nash will be, but when people say every line that he's on nothing happens...sometimes you want that lol.

When you have two 1st lines, I'm okay throwing out a nothing line until they're ready again.

counter Perfection line with Perfect Nothing line.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Ach.

I really want to win out this year to pass the Canes at least, and maybe even COL and VEG for the presidents trophy.

It would be absolutely classic if Andy came back again and ruined the end of this great season for us.

Vegas already has 39 wins, we would lose the tie breaker if we end up with 80 pts.

 

[Trapper]

I secretly don't think anyone in the North will take them more than 6 games.

With the exception of 1 series where McDavid would go God mode, I agree.

This isn’t a division where you look and see Boston,TB,Toronto and go wow tough division. I never thought the Leafs shouldn’t be first at any time looking at it.