Pre-Game Talk: Time to talk Playoffs

[Gary Nylund]

Oh I get it, Gary.

Our division is so weak that their average rank was 19 last year

Our division is so weak that they put up the exact same .542pts% this year as they did last year.

I get it, Gary......but do you?

You don't seem to get it at all.

Go ahead and post the pts% for each division for last year and this year, maybe that will help.

Edit - go to this website, look at the last column which is PTS% in regulation time. Figure out what the average is for the each division. I can tell you right now without doing any calculations at all that except for rounding errors, every division will be at .50%. Do you see why?

Once you figure out why that is, you'll understand why I said earlier that every division will have about the same average PTS%, the only differences will be due to how many OT games there were. And once you understand why that is, you might understand that comparing a divisions PTS% between this season compared to last makes no sense whatsoever.

Logic can be your friend, as I said earlier - without logic, numbers are useless to you.

2020-21 NHL Summary | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Mess]

Overall rank should be about the same for all divisions, once you figure out why that is you should understand why you're wrong. The only discrepancies between divisional rankings should be due to how many games go to OT, that obviously wasn't the case last season. Since overall ranking should be about the same for all divisions, average rank for a weak division like ours is guaranteed to go up and for the same reason, average rank for a strong division is guaranteed to go down, it means nothing.

Numbers are great, but if you don't have the ability to think logically then they're of no use to you my friend.

You shouldn't have to point out the obvious that comparing a teams pts% record against 30 teams last year vs 6 teams in a bubble this year isn't an apples to apples comparison that means anything. Toss in a balanced 2-4 games vs unbalanced 9-10 times schedule and nothing is the same.

Even when 2 bad non playoff teams in a bubble Div like Ottawa vs Vancouver play each other 9-10 times someone is guaranteed 2 points and perhaps even 3 are handed out on that night if it goes to OT. If Ottawa vs Vancouver happens 10 times then 20 points minimum are handed out in the Div that inflate points% when determining level of competition, and doesn't mean either team is strong nor good despite earning the W.

When you play against all the other Divs there is no guarantee at all a bad team earns points on the evening. You're inflating points earned regardless of strength of team or competition.

When you take last year's President trophy Boston Bruins 100 points and the Stanley Cup Champs TB Lightning 92 points who finished #1 and #3 in the regular season standings last year and replace them in the Leafs Div with non playoff Calgary and Vancouver it shouldn't be a surprise that most people understand the QofC as a result went way down because of the re-alignment.

I feel bad for a team like Philly who last year +20 games over .500 and an automatic into the playoffs without even going through the play-in round.. Now you toss 100 pt Boston into their new Div along with Washington, Pittsburgh, NYI and ask the Flyers to play them all 9-10 times you get Philly with 56 points in 55 games and just above a .500 hockey team because their QofC went way up.

If Philly and Toronto flipped Divs where would our Leafs sit in the standings now against those strong Cup contenders of the East Div having to play them 9-10 times each instead? I can guarantee QofC would be debated regularly to help explain the nightly outcomes.

Our Leafs have been given a silver lining gift thanks to a once in a century pandemic, and so lets hope they take full advantage of this golden opportunity. Next year when TB and Boston return to the Atlantic and that is our path through the first couple rounds things will get a lot harder again.

 

[IPS]

You shouldn't have to point out the obvious that comparing a teams pts% record against 30 teams last year vs 6 teams in a bubble this year isn't an apples to apples comparison that means anything. Toss in a balanced 2-4 games vs unbalanced 9-10 times schedule and nothing is the same.

Even when 2 bad non playoff teams in a bubble Div like Ottawa vs Vancouver play each other 9-10 times someone is guaranteed 2 points and perhaps even 3 are handed out on that night if it goes to OT. If Ottawa vs Vancouver happens 10 times then 20 points minimum are handed out in the Div that inflate points% when determining level of competition.

When you play against all the other Divs there is no guarantee at all a bad team earns points on the evening. You're inflating points earned regardless of strength of team or competition.

When you take last year's President trophy Boston Bruins 100 points and the Stanley Cup Champs TB Lightning 92 points who finished #1 and #3 in the regular season standings last year and replace them in the Leafs Div with non playoff Calgary and Vancouver it shouldn't be a surprise that most people understand the QofC as a result went way down because of the re-alignment.

I feel bad for a team like Philly who last year +20 games over .500 and an automatic into the playoffs without even going through the play-in round.. Now you toss 100 pt Boston into their new Div along with Washington, Pittsburgh, NYI and ask the Flyers to play them all 9-10 times you get Philly with 56 points in 55 games and just above a .500 hockey team because their QofC went way up.

If Philly and Toronto flipped Divs where would our Leafs sit in the standings now against those strong Cup contenders of the East Div having to play them 9-10 times each instead? I can guarantee QofC would be debated regularly to help explain the nightly outcomes.

Our Leafs have been given a silver lining gift thanks to a once in a century pandemic, and so lets hope they take full advantage of this golden opportunity. Next year when TB and Boston return to the Atlantic and that is our path through the first couple rounds things will get a lot harder again.

What about a team like Florida drastically improving going from a weak division last year (your own opinion, you called last year's Atlantic division weak) to a very strong division this year?

Using your own logic why can't I say that Toronto will improve changing places with Philly

 

[zeke]

You don't seem to get it at all.

Go ahead and post the pts% for each division for last year and this year, maybe that will help.

Edit - go to this website, look at the last column which is PTS% in regulation time. Figure out what the average is for the each division. I can tell you right now without doing any calculations at all that except for rounding errors, every division will be at .50%. Do you see why?

Once you figure out why that is, you'll understand why I said earlier that every division will have about the same average PTS%, the only differences will be due to how many OT games there were. And once you understand why that is, you might understand that comparing a divisions PTS% between this season compared to last makes no sense whatsoever.

Logic can be your friend, as I said earlier - without logic, numbers are useless to you.

2020-21 NHL Summary | Hockey-Reference.com

Gary, you should have stopped before you started. Now it's just getting cringey.

Last year:

East .597, #12 average rank
West .549, #18 average rank
Central .542, #15 average rank
North .542, #19 average rank

 

[Gary Nylund]

Gary, you should have stopped before you started. Now it's just getting cringey.

Last year:

East .597, #12 average rank
West .549, #18 average rank
Central .542, #15 average rank
North .542, #19 average rank

Why don't you post the same numbers for this year like I asked you to? Is it because you've seen the error of your ways but are loathe to admit how wrong you were?

 

[zeke]

Why don't you post the same numbers for this year like I asked you to? Is it because you've seen the error of your ways but are loathe to admit how wrong you were?

Lmao. Keep digging.

 

[cupcrazyman]

We are going to be a very hard team to play against.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Lmao. Keep digging.

Keep deflecting.

Every divisions average regulation PTS% per team will be exactly .500. Therefore the only variance in PTS% between divisions will be due to the number of OT games they played. Therefore, looking at a divisions average PTS% tells you nothing which is why you're out to lunch.

If you still don't even understand that much ... have a nice day buddy.

 

[IPS]

And why did Calgary and Vancouver take such a dive coming into the much weaker Canadian division?

 

[zeke]

Keep deflecting.

Every divisions average regulation PTS% per team will be exactly .500. Therefore the only variance in PTS% between divisions will be due to the number of OT games they played. Therefore, looking at a divisions average PTS% tells you nothing which is why you're out to lunch.

If you still don't even understand that much ... have a nice day buddy.

Lmao. You are too much. You don't even know why or what point you're trying to make.

 

[The Blueprint]

Ya’ll got room on the bandwagon for a Sharks fan? Dying to see Jumbo hoist that cup

Always got room brother! Jumbo is a legend and deserves to hoist the cup before retiring. Was hoping Patty Marleau got one here too!!

 

[The Podium]

Respectfully....theres zero chance Simmonds sits. We specifically targetted him as our first FA signing for a reason. Guys like him get more valuable come playoff time, not less. Not sure if you tuned in or not the last 4 years, but we've tried the kill em with speed and skill approach

Id normally agree, but with Foligno, Jumbo, Bogo, Muzzin and Holl this isn’t the same soft defenseless team as in years past. Not to mention the North isn’t really littered with muscles and an injury or two is inevitable so Simmonds will dress as the games get tougher.

 

[Antropovsky]

Lmao. Keep digging.

As an observer who appreciates the numbers that "eye tests" don't necessarily see... why don't you post the numbers he is asking for and provide the rhetoric on why @Gary Nylund opinion is bogus? Maybe you have and I missed it?

If he is wrong than why not explain why?

 

[zeke]

As an observer who appreciates the numbers that "eye tests" don't necessarily see... why don't you post the numbers he is asking for and provide the rhetoric on why @Gary Nylund opinion is bogus? Maybe you have and I missed it?

If he is wrong than why not explain why?

It's not that he's wrong about what this years numbers will show, it's that they're a meaningless deflection from the actual point illustrated clearly by last year's numbers.

He knows this, but got stuck on trying to prove a point instead of acknowledging he was wrong about what my original numbers actually said.

 

[3blizzard4]

How it started: Toronto sucks!
How’s it going: Toronto has the easiest path to the final four.

 

[Not My Tempo]

Kinda nuts that the Pens are already done

 

[willmma]

Kinda nuts that the Pens are already done

Pens and NYR, ARI, DET, CBJ, ANA and BUF.

 

[Kelly]

The Leafs have done exactly what an elite team would do in a weaker division, they've beaten up on them. .704 point%.... "weak division" argument is a bust.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Everyone say it with me so we all understand.

Thornton
Spezza
Simmonds

ARE NOT COMING OUT OF THE LINE UP UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES OUTSIDE OF INURY.

Now say it 3x fast and 3x slow.

Great, now we’ll remember for forever!

You’re right. I’ve got that as my 4th line to start the playoffs. The difficult question is who will centre the 3rd line to start, Kerfoot or Nash?

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

You’re right. I’ve got that as my 4th line to start the playoffs. The difficult question is who will centre the 3rd line to start, Kerfoot or Nash?

Nash is not a 3C. He's a shutdown 4C and basically ensures that nothing happens on either side of the puck 5 on 5.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Nash is not a 3C. He's a shutdown 4C and basically ensures that nothing happens on either side of the puck 5 on 5.

So, if we accept the original assumption that Simmonds, Thornton, and Spezza all start, and Nash is a 4C, then we have to accept that Kerfoot is the 3C. So who comes out? I don’t think it should be Miky. His speed and defensive skills are going to be invaluable on the third line. I like Galchenyuk on the second line so I hope it’s not him. Intriguing choices to be made.

 

[Sypher04]

I've spent too much time and energy arguing against the same lazy and unfounded narratives being thrown around in the mainboards the last few months.

They have purely been designed by fans of other teams to attempt to diminish the achievements of good teams and players in the North this year.

I wish there was a way to place entire sections of this board on ignore lol

 

[Guided by Veseys]

The North is a bit weak but I don’t think it made a big impact. Probably a few extra points, a couple more Matthews goals and 5-10 McDavid points. But that’s just my assumption. All I can go on is Vancouver was wrecked this year (significant negative lineup changes plus Petterson out most of the year and especially Covid) so they aren’t as good as last year. Winnipeg is worse (Jets fans have noticed a decline in Hellybuck and if we can see it in our goalies than I’ll take their word on theirs). Calgary was a hot mess. Ottawa was surprisingly not abysmally bad. Edmonton has zero depth whatsoever and the Habs are just a mediocre combination of washed up vets and non elite young players. People get pretty worked up though if you state that the North was maybe a touch not strong. Don’t need to prove it, can’t be proven (but the results from next year should help in evaluation).
This leafs team is awesome and would have been competing for first in the Atlantic had the year proceeded as normal.

 

[Sypher04]

The North is a bit weak but I don’t think it made a big impact. Probably a few extra points, a couple more Matthews goals and 5-10 McDavid points. But that’s just my assumption. All I can go on is Vancouver was wrecked this year (significant negative lineup changes plus Petterson out most of the year and especially Covid) so they aren’t as good as last year. Winnipeg is worse (Jets fans have noticed a decline in Hellybuck and if we can see it in our goalies than I’ll take their word on theirs). Calgary was a hot mess. Ottawa was surprisingly not abysmally bad. Edmonton has zero depth whatsoever and the Habs are just a mediocre combination of washed up vets and non elite young players. People get pretty worked up though if you state that the North was maybe a touch not strong. Don’t need to prove it, can’t be proven (but the results from next year should help in evaluation).
This leafs team is awesome and would have been competing for first in the Atlantic had the year proceeded as normal.

I just get tired of it being used as a crutch to diminish anything someone accomplishes in the North. I dont think the North is some great division. I think the leafs are the only contending team in it, so at the top end, it's a bit light, but it's not like other divisions don't have their own problems. The West for example has arguably 3 teams worse than any of the North teams in LA, San Jose and Anaheim. And on top of that Arizona also isn't very good. Does the west have a better top end with both Vegas AND Colorado? Sure, but it's a total division of haves and mostly have nots

We knew what the 4 playoff teams were the moment that division was announced and the first 3 teams to clinch playoffs all came from the west, which is no coincidence

 

[Leaffan1991]

I think it's going to be Kerfoot, Nash and Mik as the third line. Basically a line that just doesn't let other team score and that's all they will do